Region

BAGHDAD — Sunni Iraqi leaders who spearheaded a bloody insurgency against the 2003 US-led invasion are now the most nervous about a possible withdrawal of American troops, considered a counterweight to Iran.

Tensions between Washington and Tehran have boiled over onto Iraqi soil this month, with the US killing top Iranian General Qasem Soleimani in Baghdad and Iran striking back at an Iraqi base hosting American soldiers.

Furious at the US hit, Iraq's parliament held a vote on January 5 to oust all foreign troops, including some 5,200 American soldiers deployed alongside local forces.

All Kurdish and most Sunni MPs boycotted the session, despite threats by Shiite factions that the minorities would be considered "traitors" for backing the US presence.

Before the vote, speaker of parliament Mohammed Halbusi, a Sunni from the western Anbar province, made an impassioned appeal to MPs to reconsider.

"The decision we take now, we may not be able to amend in an hour's time," said Halbusi, addressing the mainly Shiite lawmakers in attendance.

"The US doesn't concern me. Iran doesn't concern me. Nothing concerns me as much as Iraq does," he said.

Both Iran and Iraq are Shiite-majority countries.

Tehran has cultivated close ties with Baghdad's ruling elite for decades.

It now exercises particularly strong sway through Iraq's Hashed Al Shaabi, a network of armed groups absorbed into the state security forces that has significant parliamentary representation.

Iran's growing clout has come at the expense of the US, which led the invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein.

That unleashed a deadly insurgency, with Sunni militias attacking US forces, before a broad Iraqi sectarian war erupted in 2006-2007 costing thousands of lives.

'A buffer' 

Iraq's Sunni leaders now find themselves on the other side of the equation: Uneasy about perceived Iranian overreach, they are cautiously lobbying for US troops to stay.

Ahmad Jarba, a Sunni lawmaker from the northern province of Nineveh, told colleagues he was concerned a US withdrawal would mean an even bigger role for Tehran.

"After the vote, will our neighbours become our friends instead of our rulers? Or will we hand over our nation's decision-making to neighbouring countries?" Jarba asked.

The MP called on the government to rein in factions he accused of "blackmailing Sunni provinces and trying to turn them into military arenas".

Iraq's Sunni areas have been left ravaged by the fight against the Daesh group, ultra-conservatives who seized around a third of Iraq in 2014.

To defeat Daesh, the government partnered with both the Shiite-majority Hashed and a newly-formed global coalition led by Washington, which trained and assisted local troops.

Thousands of US-led coalition forces are still deployed at a half-dozen Iraqi bases, all in Sunni or Kurdish areas.

But the Hashed has also sought to increase its presence in those towns, which has irked Sunni residents.

"Our presence acts as a buffer in these areas," a US commander deployed at one of those bases told AFP, requesting anonymity as he was not authorised to talk to the media.

"The smaller our presence, the more defence actors could seek their own interests. Shiite, Sunni, Yazidi, different tribes — their units would lash out against perceived threats," the commander added

'Clear fear' of
what's to come 

That distrust comes at a sensitive time.

Iraq's Shiite-majority areas have been rocked by months of anti-government protests that have called out Iran.

But Sunni areas have held back, afraid their own rallies would be seen in a sectarian light and would be quashed.

They are also nervously watching the escalating tensions between Iran and the US, but most have kept mum.

Some Sunni tribal sheikhs peeled away from the post-invasion insurgency to fight Al Qaeda alongside the US in the so-called Sunni "awakening" of 2006.

Several told AFP they had received threats from armed factions.

"They warned us against siding with 'the occupier' again," one said, requesting anonymity due to security concerns.

"For Iraq's Sunnis, Kurds and other minorities, America creates balance with Shiite politicians who control the government," Iraqi expert Hisham Al Hashemi said.

Those minorities, he added, feared their Shiite rivals were leaning towards Iran "at the expense of the interests of the other components, and even at the expense of the Arab Shiite opposition".

"They think only America can deter this," said Hashemi.

But if Iraq's government forces a withdrawal, Sunnis may seek to instate an autonomous minority region, modelled after the northern region of Kurdistan, analysts said.

"There's a clear fear among Sunnis of what may come, which has prompted them to reconsider a canton to protect their own areas," said Ayad Al Tufan, an independent analyst and former army officer.

PARIS — The French foreign ministry said Monday that eight European Union nations had given their "political support" for a new naval patrol to help avoid potential conflicts in the Strait of Hormuz, the strategically critical entry to the Gulf.

Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, the Netherlands and Portugal backed the new force, whose mission headquarters will be based in Abu Dhabi.

A Dutch frigate is expected to launch the patrol rotations by the end of February, a French army official told AFP on condition of anonymity.

The move comes amid escalating tensions in the region, especially between Iran and the United States, that have sparked attacks on tankers and other conflicts in a crucial zone for oil shipping.

Iran is also backing Houthi rebels in Yemen who are locked in a years-long battle with a coalition force led by Saudi Arabia, which has led to ship seizures by Houthi fighters.

"For months this situation has jeopardised freedom of navigation and the security of both European and foreign ships and crews", the ministry said in a statement.

The Hormuz Strait is considered especially vulnerable since it is only 50 kilometres wide and relatively shallow, with a maximum depth of 60 metres.

The EU initiative also underscores the bloc’s goal of acting separately from the US, which launched its own operation alongside allies last November to protect shipping in Gulf waters.

France and its European allies are hoping to distance themselves from US President Donald Trump in order to save the landmark 2015 deal curtailing Tehran’s nuclear programme.

Trump abandoned the accord in 2018 and imposed economic sanctions against Iran, rekindling a smouldering conflict that led to strikes on cargo ships as well as Saudi Arabian oil facilities.

France, Denmark, Greece and The Netherlands have already confirmed they will contribute to the patrols, which will be based in the United Arab Emirates, and “new commitments” are expected in the coming days, the ministry said.

TEHRAN — Iran has confirmed two missiles were fired at a Ukrainian airliner brought down this month, in a catastrophic error that killed all 176 people on board and sparked angry protests.

The country's civil aviation authority said it has yet to receive a positive response after requesting technical assistance from France and the United States to decode black boxes from the downed airliner.

The Kiev-bound Ukraine International Airlines plane was accidentally shot down shortly after takeoff from Tehran's Imam Khomeini International Airport on January 8.

Iran has come under mounting international pressure to carry out a full and transparent investigation into the air disaster.

"Investigators... discovered that two Tor-M1 missiles... were fired at the aircraft," Iran's Civil Aviation Organisation said in a preliminary report posted on its website late Monday.

It said an investigation was ongoing to assess the bearing their impact had on the accident.

The statement confirms a report in The New York Times which included video footage appearing to show two projectiles being fired at the airliner.

The Tor-M1 is a short-range surface-to-air missile developed by the former Soviet Union that is designed to target aircraft or cruise missiles.

Iran had for days denied Western claims based on US intelligence reports that the Boeing 737 had been shot down.

It came clean on January 11, with the Revolutionary Guards' aerospace commander Brigadier General Amirali Hajizadeh accepting full responsibility.

But he said the missile operator who opened fire had been acting independently.

The deadly blunder triggered days of student-led protests mainly in the Iranian capital.

Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said on Friday that the demonstrations were unrepresentative of the Iranian people and accused the country’s enemies of exploiting the air disaster for propaganda purposes.

In its report, the Civil Aviation Organisation said it was “impossible” for it to read the flight data and cockpit voice recorders — commonly known as black boxes — because they were so advanced.

But it suggested Iran wants to keep them for now.

“If devices are provided, the information [on the black boxes] can be restored and retrieved in a short period of time,” it said.

The aviation body said it had asked its French and US counterparts, the BEA and NTSB respectively, to provide a list of the equipment required to read the black boxes.

It said it had also sought the transfer of the equipment, but added that neither the BEA nor NTSB had “so far responded positively”.

It said it had acquired the list nonetheless, without saying how, and hinted it would use it to buy the equipment itself.

The report said that based on passports used to board Flight PS752, there were 146 Iranians, 11 Ukrainians including nine crew members, 10 Afghans and four Swedes on the ill-fated airliner.

Canada, which says 57 of its nationals were on the plane, has repeatedly asked Iran to hand the black boxes over to Ukraine or France for expert analysis.

US-Iran tensions 

The 737 was downed when Iran’s air defences had been on high alert hours after its armed forces fired more than 20 ballistic missiles at US troops stationed in Iraq.

That was carried out in reprisal for a January 3 US drone strike that killed Iran’s most prominent military commander, Qassem Soleimani, near Baghdad airport.

US President Donald Trump had been poised to retaliate for the missile attack, but refrained after the missiles caused no casualties.

It was the second time in little more than six months that Iran and its sworn enemy have been on the brink of war.

In June 2019, Trump had approved a strike on Iran in response for the downing of a US drone in the Gulf, before calling it off at the last minute.

Longstanding US-Iran tensions have soared since May 2018 when Trump withdrew from a nuclear deal that offered Tehran sanctions relief in return for curbs to prevent it acquiring nuclear weapons.

Washington says it seeks to rein in Iran’s ballistic missile programme as well as its “destabilising behaviour” in the region.

It has since slapped crippling sanctions on Iran, which denies it wants to acquire nuclear weapons and has hit back by progressively rolling back commitments to the nuclear deal.

BEIRUT — Lebanon is facing its worst economic crisis since its civil war, an unprecedented protest movement and mounting international pressure for reform, yet, under-fire politicians have yet to form a government.

This raises questions about what is holding up the creation of a new Cabinet and what comes next for a crumbling country that can ill-afford delays.

What’s the holdup? 

Lebanon has been waiting for a new government since former prime minister Saad Hariri resigned on October 29, two weeks into a protest movement demanding the removal of a political class deemed incompetent and corrupt.

After weeks of political wrangling over who would head the next government, political parties on December 19 designated Hassan Diab, an engineering professor and self-professed technocrat.

But Diab, who had pledged to form a government within six weeks of his nomination, has hit repeated snags.

Quotas apportioning positions between the key Christian, Sunni and Shiite communities have been key to forming governments since the end of the 1975 to 1990 civil war.

The process always involves an arduous “slicing [of] the pie”, said Sami Nader, director of the Levant Institute for Strategic Affairs.

Lebanon’s three-month-old protest movement has mobilised against this kind of political horsetrading but old habits die hard.

“We are seeing the same modus operandi — the same sectarian and partisan logic of distribution of shares,” Nader said.

This time around, political parties are objecting to a proposal by Diab to form a downsized Cabinet of 18 ministers instead of 30, arguing that it would deprive some parties of their slice.

Two of the smaller groups allied to Shiite movement Hizbollah — the Marada Movement and the Syrian Social Nationalist Party — appeared to be the most vocal critics of a tighter cabinet.

Diab has yet to comment on a fresh proposal for a 20-minister government meeting those parties’ demands.

What will the government look like? 

Political parties also seem to be wrangling over names.

Diab has pledged to form a government that includes independent experts and representatives of the popular movement — a key demand of protesters who have lost faith in the established elite.

But this is a tall order, said Hilal Khashan, a professor at the American University of Beirut, who argued that all proposed candidates are linked to established political parties.

“A Cabinet made up exclusively of technocrats is wishful thinking,” he said.

“Behind every candidate, there is a political party backing their nomination,” he added.

Established parties “are still in control of the process”.

Christian leader Sleiman Frangieh, whose Marada Movement is one of the largest Christian blocs, confessed to this in a press conference on Tuesday, saying a government of independent experts is “not realistic”.

“Our political partners are naming people that represent them,” he said, justifying his demand for wider representation.

“The popular movement should give us a chance — the proposed names are good ones.”

Will it ease the crisis? 

Donors and citizens are pinning their hopes on a new government to spearhead reforms, unlock billions in international aid, and help stabilise a plummeting Lebanese pound that has lost over a third of its value on the parallel market.

But analysts argue that there is little the next government can do.

“The task that awaits any Cabinet during this serious period is herculean,” said Karim Mufti, a political scientist.

“In view of the multidimensional nature of the crisis, it seems difficult to envisage short-term solutions to the country’s financial, economic and social problems.”

Lebanon has one of the world’s highest debt-to-GDP ratios.

A grinding dollar liquidity crisis and restrictions imposed by banks on dollar transactions has compounded the crisis, leaving Lebanon on the brink of default.

To make matters worse, political opponents of Hizbollah, including Hariri’s Future Movement, have said they would not participate in the next government.

This has sparked fears any administration would be lopsided, dominated by Hizbollah allies and lack support needed to foster goodwill at home and abroad.

Khashan said that political wrangling suggested the existing parties are ill-equipped to deal with the challenges at hand.

“Solving the country’s economic problems are far more difficult than forming a Cabinet, and yet politicians can’t seem to agree on the simpler task.”

BAGHDAD — Three Iraqi protesters were killed in the capital as thousands of anti-government demonstrators sought to shut streets across the country on Monday, their deadline for authorities to implement long-awaited reforms.

Rallies have rocked Iraq since October but fearing they would lose momentum amid spiralling regional tensions protesters last Monday told the government it had one week to meet their demands or they would escalate their demonstrations. 

Protesters sought to ramp up pressure on the government on Monday with pop-up rallies away from their main gathering place in Baghdad's iconic Tahrir (Liberation) Square.

Hundreds descended on nearby Tayaran Square, where they clashed with security forces who fired tear gas and live rounds to disperse them, an AFP journalist said.

Three protesters were killed, medics told AFP, two of them by live rounds and the third by a tear gas canister that pierced his neck. 

More than 50 other people were wounded, the medics said.

Young men wearing helmets and gas masks in an attempt to protect themselves from flying gas canisters erected barricades to try to push riot police back. 

Protesters have called for early elections under a new voting law, an independent prime minister to replace outgoing premier Adel Abdel Mahdi and for all corrupt officials to be held accountable.

Late Sunday, young protesters began sealing off highways and bridges across the capital Baghdad and Iraq's south, torching tyres and setting up makeshift barricades.

They tried to do the same early Monday in the capital but security forces acted fast, with the military saying it had reopened a major Baghdad thoroughfare and arrested nine young men who had attempted to seal it off.

Protests slam ‘procrastination’ 

Fearing widespread rallies, provincial authorities across southern Iraq announced an official holiday on Monday. 

But young people hit the streets in the southern cities of Kut, Nasiriyah, Baqubah, Amara and the holy city of Najaf, setting tyres on fire.

In the protest hotspot of Diwaniyah, they shut key roads both inside and leading out of the city.

“The procrastination of the government and the political class for more than three months now has prompted us to take escalatory steps to pressure them to meet our demands,” Mohammad Faeq, a 28-year-old protester, told AFP.

Since October, around 460 people have lost their lives to protest-related violence and another 25,000 have been wounded, according to an AFP count. 

Authorities do not provide updated casualty figures. 

Demonstrators have feared their movement would be eclipsed by the geopolitical storm brewing between neighbouring Iran and the United States, both close partners of Iraq. 

A US drone strike near Baghdad’s airport on January 3 killed top Iranian commander Qassem Soleimani, prompting Iranian rocket strikes on an Iraqi base housing US troops and triggering fears of a wider conflict.

Iraqi political figures have since ramped up their calls for foreign forces — including some 5,200 US troops — to leave the country.

UN warns of ‘foreign interference’ 

On Monday, the United Nations’ top official in Iraq Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert said ignoring the demands of protesters would only fuel “anger and distrust”. 

“Any steps taken so far to address the people’s concerns will remain hollow, if they are not completed,” she said in a statement. 

“Domestic unity, cohesion and determination are urgently necessary to build resilience against narrow partisan interests, foreign interference
and/or criminal elements which actively seek to hinder Iraq’s stability,” she added.

Protesters also worry that a mass rally to be organised on Friday by firebrand Shiite cleric Moqtada Sadr to demand the ouster of US troops could drown them out.

Last week, Sadr urged Iraqis to hold “a million-strong, peaceful, unified demonstration to condemn the American presence and its violations”.

While protesters have criticised the US, they have directly accused Iran of hindering Iraq politically and economically.

Tehran holds major sway in Iraq, building up close ties with a variety of political and military players over decades.

Protesters say Iran’s overreach has contributed to rampant corruption and poor services. 

The World Bank says one in five people lives below the poverty line in Iraq, which is OPEC’s second-biggest crude producer. 

While the rallies initially railed against the economy, they quickly escalated to demand a total overhaul of government.

Protesters scored one win in December with the resignation of Abdel Mahdi but he has stayed on in a caretaker role and political parties have thus far failed to agree on a successor.

Demonstrators have publicly rejected names circulating as possible replacements and are furious that other sweeping reforms have not been implemented.

BERLIN — A peaceful solution to Libya's protracted conflict remains uncertain despite an international agreement struck in Germany, analysts say, as a fragile ceasefire between warring factions brought only a temporary truce.

On Sunday in Berlin, world leaders committed to ending all foreign meddling in Libya and to uphold a weapons embargo as part of a broader plan to end the country's conflict.

But overnight Sunday to Monday heavy bombardment again echoed south of Tripoli — the capital of a country that has been in turmoil since the 2011 NATO-backed uprising that killed Muammar Qadhafi.

Since April last year the UN-recognised Government of National Accord (GNA) based in Tripoli has fought back against an offensive launched by fighters loyal to eastern commander Khalifa Haftar.

GNA leader Fayez Al Sarraj and Haftar attended the Berlin summit but they refused to meet and the conference failed to get the two rivals to commit to a permanent truce.

The host, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, tried hard to get Sarraj and Haftar to engage in a serious dialogue.

But after the hours-long talks, she had to put on a brave face and admit she had no illusions concerning a peaceful outcome in Libya anytime soon.

“Ensuring that a ceasefire is immediately respected is simply not easy to guarantee,” Merkel said.

Echoing Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov who took part in the talks, she said the Libyan parties had taken “a small step forward”.

Khaled Al Montassar, a Libyan university professor of international relations, agreed that much still needs to be done.

“Theoretically, the Berlin summit was successful and touched upon all the details and the causes of the Libyan crisis,” he said. 

“But the mechanisms of implementing the summit’s conclusions are still not clear.”

Consolidating truce 

The summit was attended by the presidents of Russia, Turkey, France and Egypt, as well as US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and UN chief Antonio Guterres.

The main points they agreed to will be put forward as a UN Security Council resolution.

They include a commitment to end foreign interference in Libya, respect for a UN arms embargo, a permanent ceasefire and steps to dismantle numerous militias and armed groups.

European states must now convince Italy to resume naval operations suspended since March 2019 aimed at enforcing the embargo.

Other points agreed in Berlin were a return to a political process under the auspices of the UN, respect for human rights and guarantees to ensure the security of Libya’s lucrative oil infrastructure.

The United Nations walked away from the summit satisfied at least with one key development.

The summit saw the formation of a military commission comprising five GNA loyalists and five Haftar delegates who will seek to define ways of consolidating the ceasefire.

The UN mission in Libya had for weeks urged the rival camps to submit names of delegates to such a commission, and its wish was finally answered on Sunday.

The military commission is expected to meet in the coming days, according to the UN, tasked with turning the fragile ceasefire into a permanent truce as requested by the international leaders in Berlin.

The ceasefire was co-sponsored by Russia and Turkey and has broadly held since it went into effect on January 12.

International divisions 

The main goal of the Berlin summit was to end the international divisions concerning Libya.

Although the GNA is recognised by the UN as Libya’s legitimate government, the world body’s member states do not agree when it comes to the oil-rich north African country.

Haftar, who insists his military campaign is aimed at battling extremists, has the support of several countries, including Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and France, with some providing him with military and logistical backing.

The GNA is backed by Qatar and Turkey, which has recently sent some troops to shore up Sarraj’s embattled government.

Moscow is also suspected of backing Haftar but denies funding Russian mercenaries on the ground.

As a follow-up to the Berlin summit, the two rival administrations must now choose representatives to attend talks in order to revive the moribund political process, UN envoy to Libya Ghassan Salame said.

Algeria, which attended the conference and shares a border with Libya, on Monday offered to hold inter-Libyan talks on its soil. 

But future talks are certain to face huge challenges, particularly after pro-Haftar forces blocked oil exports from Libya’s main ports last week.

Meanwhile, Libyans on social media remained sceptical, the deep divisions reflected in comments such as “who won, Haftar or Sarraj?”

On local television, a Libyan analyst was quoted as saying: “The Berlin conference was not about reconciling the Libyans themselves, but rather about reconciling Westerners concerning Libya.”

By Imed Lamloum and Rim Taher