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'Yemen deal on brink of collapse'

By - Jan 16,2020 - Last updated at Jan 16,2020

ADEN — The leader of Yemen's southern separatists has warned against the looming collapse of a power-sharing deal, saying the region is menaced by the twin threats of economic catastrophe and extremist attacks.

The agreement to resolve a battle for control in the south, which was signed in Riyadh last November, was hailed as a step towards ending the wider conflict in Yemen that pits the government against Iran-backed Houthi rebels.

However, analysts have said it is effectively defunct, having failed to meet deadlines for key measures including the formation of a new Cabinet with equal representation for southerners, and the reorganisation of military forces.

In an interview with AFP, Aidarous Al Zoubeidi, who heads the secessionist Southern Transitional Council (STC), said he was committed to the deal "under the leadership of Saudi Arabia" which leads a military coalition against the Houthis.

Zoubeidi said the agreement, which observers had welcomed as preventing the complete break-up of Yemen, united the south against the Houthis and recognised the STC as a legitimate party.

“We consider the Riyadh Agreement an important political step, because we gained regional and international recognition,” he said as he sat behind his desk in the main southern city of Aden in front of the flag of the formerly independent south.

 

‘People are suffering’ 

 

In August, deadly clashes broke out between the government and STC forces who seized control of Aden, ousting unionist forces who had set up base there when President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi fled the Houthi-held capital Sanaa in February 2015.

While the government and the STC are technically allies in the long war against the Houthis, the secessionists believe the south should be an independent state — as it was before unification in 1990.

However, Zoubeidi said they were willing to set aside that goal as the allies focused on the fight against the Houthi rebels, which had threatened to be derailed by the power struggle in the south.

“We do not aspire during this phase for independence, we aspire for partnership... and the right to choose our own fate through democracy,” he said.

The troubled rollout of the deal comes against amid what Zoubeidi said was a dire situation in the south of Yemen — a country which the grinding conflict has pushed to the brink of famine.

“There is a shortage of food products, the warehouses are empty in the south and there are only reserves to cover the needs of the people for the next 10 days,” he said.

“People are also suffering from not getting their salaries,” he said, referring to a chronic lack of funds to pay public sector employees.

Zoubeidi said that Yemen’s currency was sharply depreciating, and that it was possible that in the next few months the rial would be abandoned in favour of the Saudi or US currencies “because it will have no value”.

 

Threats loom 

 

Zoubeidi said that “many threats” loom large over the Riyadh Agreement, but the most critical was intensified activity by militant groups including the Muslim Brotherhood, which he said was working “under the cover” of the government.

The tussle for control of the south, dubbed a “civil war within a civil war”, exposed divisions between the coalition partners — Saudi Arabia which backs the government, and the United Arab Emirates which has backed and funded the STC.

“These terrorist organisations threaten the Riyadh Agreement because they are terrorist organisations that will conduct terrorist activities that may lead to the failure of the deal,” Zoubeidi said.

The Riyadh Agreement set a timetable for the government’s return to Aden, the appointment of a new head of security and a governor of the city, and the formation of a new 24-member Cabinet with equal representation for southerners.

Yemen’s Prime Minister Maeen Abdulmalik returned to the city in December but the two sides have failed to meet the other deadlines.

Around 3.3 million people have been displaced by the Yemeni conflict and some 20 million — more than two-thirds of the population — need help to survive what the United Nations has described as the world’s worst humanitarian crisis.

 

 

US presence in Iraq since 2003

By - Jan 16,2020 - Last updated at Jan 16,2020

A photo taken on January 13, 2020 during a press tour organised by the US-led coalition fighting the remnants of the Daesh terror group, shows soldiers clearing rubble at Ain Al Asad military airbase in the western Iraqi province of Anbar. Iran last week launched a wave of missiles at the sprawling Ain Al Asad airbase in western Iraq and a base in Erbil, capital of Iraq’s autonomous Kurdish region, both hosting US and other foreign troops in retaliation for the US killing top Iranian general Qassem Soleimani in a drone strike in Baghdad on January 3 (AFP photo)

BAGHDAD —  The United States invaded Iraq in 2003 and pulled out after eight years, returning in 2014 to head a coalition battling terrorists.

Amid calls for its 5,200 troops to leave after a US air strike killed top Iranian and Iraqi commanders this month, here is an overview of the US military presence in Iraq.

 

2003: invasion 

The March 2003 US-led invasion is launched after claims that Saddam Hussein's regime is harbouring weapons of mass destruction.

US forces take control of Baghdad the following month.

President George W. Bush announces the end of major combat operations in May.

In October, a US report says no weapons of mass destruction have been found in Iraq.

Saddam is captured in December and hanged three years later.

The broadcast in April 2004 of images of torture and other abuse of Iraqi prisoners at the Abu Ghraib US military prison shocks the world.

Washington transfers power to an interim government in June.

 

 Insurgency, conflict 

 

In November 2004, more than 10,000 American and 2,000 Iraqi soldiers attack the city of Fallujah, retaking it from Sunni insurgents who backed the former regime and extremists.

In February 2006, Al Qaeda-linked terrorists blow up a Shiite shrine in Samarra, sparking sectarian killings that leave tens of thousands dead and last until 2008.

In January 2007, Bush boosts the number of US troops in Iraq to 165,000.

2011: pullout 

 

In December 2011 US President Barack Obama withdraws the last American soldiers.

They leave behind an elected Iraqi government but a population scarred by ongoing violence.

Around 4,500 US troops had been killed in Iraq since 2003; at least 112,000 Iraqi civilians also lost their lives, some caught up in fighting and others in sectarian violence or attacks.

 

2014: terrorists 

 

In January 2014, terrorists capture Fallujah and parts of Ramadi city. In June, they seize Mosul and by the end of 2014 hold one-third of Iraq.

The United States intervenes by bombarding positions of the Daesh  group and deploys troops to train and equip local security forces.

By mid-2015, there are officially 3,500 American troops stationed in Iraq.

With the help of a US-led coalition, Iraqi forces drive Daesh from all urban centres, declaring in December 2017 the "end of the war".

 

US, Iran tensions 

 

From late October 2019, US interests in Iraq are hit by a series of rocket attacks blamed on paramilitary groups backed by Iran, which has a growing influence in the country.

A barrage of rockets fired at a military base in Kirkuk in December kills an American civilian contractor and wounds several US and Iraqi soldiers.

The US retaliates with air strikes that kill at least 25 fighters from a hardline pro-Iran paramilitary.

An outraged pro-Iran mob lays siege to the US embassy in Baghdad on New Year's Day.

On January 3, President Donald Trump orders strikes that kill top Iranian commander, Qasem Soleimani, while he is in Iraq, as well as a top paramilitary chief.

Furious Iraqi lawmakers demand the expulsion of the 5,200 US troops in Iraq. Washington pauses joint military operations.

On January 16, The New York Times reports that operations had resumed in order to pick up the fight against the Daesh.

On Wednesday, Rouhani had said Iran's missile launches against Iraqi bases used by the US armed forces had provided "compensation" for the death of General Qasem Soleimani, the architect of Iran's Middle East military strategy.

In his speech on Thursday, Rouhani said that the Iranian retaliation — which caused significant material damage but no casualties according to the US military — had strengthened Iranian deterrence against the "threats" of President Donald Trump.

Rouhani, a moderate on his country's political spectrum, also defended the policy of openness to the world that he has pursued since his first election in 2013, and which has come under fire from Iran's ultra-conservatives.

He also defended the 2015 international agreement designed to limit Iran's nuclear programme which has been in tatters since Trump unilaterally pulled out of it in 2018.

Rouhani said that with the nuclear deal "we have proven in practice that it is possible for us to interact with the world”.

"Of course, it's difficult," he acknowledged.

"They tell us: there are people you should not trust," he said, referring to the rhetoric of Iranian ultra-conservatives about Europe and the United States.

"It's true" the Iranian president said, adding that "if there were trustworthy people ... it would be simple and easy" while also referring to Trump as "an unpredictable man".

Sudan appoints new spy chief after crushing mutiny

By - Jan 16,2020 - Last updated at Jan 16,2020

A general view shows the area outside the headquarters of the Directorate of General Intelligence Service in the Riyadh district of Sudan's capital Khartoum on Tuesday (AFP photo)

KHARTOUM — Sudan on Thursday appointed a new intelligence chief to replace the general who quit after government forces crushed a deadly mutiny launched by some members of the country's powerful security agency.

The new spy chief, Lieutenant General Jamalabdel Majid, previously served as head of army intelligence, a post he assumed after last year's fall of longtime autocrat Omar Al Bashir.

Five people, including two soldiers, were killed when agents of the General Intelligence Service, formerly known as the National Intelligence and Security Service (NISS), launched their rebellion from several of their bases in Khartoum on Tuesday.

Officials say the mutineers were unhappy with the amount of money offered to them for taking retirement as part of a restructuring plan proposed by Sudan's new authorities.

The rebellion was crushed by government forces after several hours of often intense gunfire.

On Wednesday, General Abdel Fattah Al Burhan, chairman of the country's transitional ruling council, announced that the head of the security agency, General Abu Bakr Mustafa, had offered his resignation, which was accepted on Thursday.

"The sovereign council in a meeting today accepted the resignation of General Abu Bakr Mustafa and appointed Lieutenant General Jamalabdel Majid as the new chief of intelligence," the council said.

NISS agents were at the forefront of a crackdown on protesters who took to the streets against Bashir, which finally led to his ouster by the army last April.

On Wednesday, Burhan said the rebellion was launched by the military wing of the intelligence service which was set up by the agency's former chief Salah Gosh under Bashir's regime.

He said such a military wing was no longer necessary in Sudan.

The sovereign council currently running Sudan is a joint civilian-military body tasked with overseeing a transition to civilian rule as demanded by the protest movement.

Fears for southern Yemen as 'landmark' peace deal crumbles

By - Jan 16,2020 - Last updated at Jan 16,2020

DUBAI — A power-sharing agreement between the Yemeni government and southern separatists is effectively defunct more than two months after it was signed, increasing fears of renewed hostilities.

The deal to resolve a tussle for control in the south, dubbed a "civil war within a civil war", was hailed as a stepping stone towards ending the wider conflict in Yemen when it was struck in Riyadh last November.

Last August, deadly clashes broke out between the government and the secessionist Southern Transitional Council (STC), which seized control of the southern city of Aden.

Aden had served as the internationally recognised government's base after it was pushed out of the northern capital Sanaa by the Iran-aligned Houthi rebels in 2014, and its loss represented another humiliation. 

While both the government and the STC are technically allies in the long war against the Iran-aligned Houthi rebels, the secessionists believe the south should be an independent state — as it was before forced unification in 1990. 

The deal set a timetable for the government's return to Aden, the appointment of a new head of security and a governor of the city, as well as the formation of a new 24-member cabinet with equal representation for southerners.

Yemen's Prime Minister Maeen Abdulmalik returned to the city but the two sides have failed to meet the other deadlines which were all to be in place within a month of the signing. 

Other parts of the agreement, including placing forces from both sides under the authority of the defence and interior ministries by January 5, have also not been fulfilled. 

"The agreement had an extremely ambitious timetable," said Farea Al Muslimi, an associate fellow at London's Chatham House think tank.

As both sides look for an exit, they are trading accusations over who is responsible for the failure to enact the accord.

"The agreement has the same problem as any other Yemeni agreement... everyone wants to sign and no one wants to implement," Muslimi said.

 

'Total lack of trust' 

 

For Elisabeth Kendall, Yemen expert and senior research fellow at Oxford University, the lack of confidence between the two sides is responsible for the failure to implement the agreement in good faith. 

"The main challenge is that both sides appear to have entered the agreement grudgingly at the behest of their sponsors," she said.

They include Saudi Arabia, which supports the government, and the United Arab Emirates which has trained STC forces despite being part of the Saudi-led military coalition backing the government against the Houthi rebels. 

"Other major challenges abound, including a total lack of trust between the two parties, impossible deadlines, and clashing interpretations," she said.

Although the two sides have repeatedly expressed their commitment to the agreement, the lack of tangible results has generated concern that Yemen's south is headed for new clashes.

"The danger right now is that some kind of trigger event will lead to a renewed STC-government conflict," said Peter Salisbury, an analyst at the International Crisis Group.

Kendall said that security and stability in southern Yemen remains "highly precarious".

"Clashes are ongoing in southern flashpoints... as those loyal to the government, to the STC — and even to neither — all jockey for position," she said. 

"With the situation on the ground in the south at stalemate... there is little hope left."

Tens of thousands of people have been killed and millions driven to the brink of famine in Yemen's war, which erupted between the government and Huthi rebels in 2014, prompting a Saudi-led military intervention. 

Around 3.3 million people have been displaced and about 20 million people — more than two-thirds of the population — need help to survive, according to the United Nations which considers it the world's worst humanitarian crisis.

Lebanon in 'week of wrath' protests over political, economic crisis

By - Jan 16,2020 - Last updated at Jan 16,2020

BEIRUT — Lebanese demonstrators have taken to the streets to demand an end to a months-long political vacuum, with police firing tear gas at the start of what protesters have billed a "week of wrath".

Protesters resumed blocking major highways on Tuesday before anti-riot police armed with batons and shields charged hundreds of demonstrators outside the Lebanese central bank, an AFP correspondent said.

The charge dispersed the crowd, some of whom smashed paving stones to hurl them at police while others distributed onions to ward off the effects of the tear gas.

The civil defence said it had treated civilians and members of the police for light injuries at the scene, without saying how many, while others who had been wounded were taken to hospital, it said.

On Twitter, the security forces denounced "attacks" led by "rioters" who had thrown stones and firecrackers at police. 

Although protests had declined in size in recent weeks, demonstrations have been ongoing since mid-October, increasingly targeting banks and state institutions blamed for driving Lebanon towards collapse.

The unprecedented cross-sectarian movement has been fuelled by a crippling economic crisis, the worst since Lebanon's 1975-1990 civil war.

Debt-burdened Lebanon has been without a government after Saad Hariri resigned as prime minister on October 29, as political parties fail to agree on the makeup of a new team.

"Rebel, Beirut", dozens of protesters chanted as they marched to the sound of drums towards the home of premier designate Hassan Diab, who has struggled to form a cabinet since he was named on December 19.

"I want a government that can resolve the economic crisis as quickly as possible," said Nour, a 31-year-old marcher. 

As a liquidity crisis grows and the cost of living rises, protesters have returned to the streets to urge politicians to swiftly form a cabinet of experts to respond to their demands.

On Tuesday morning, dozens of protesters blocked key highways in and around Beirut with overturned rubbish bins and burning tyres.

Laila Youssef, 47, said she was taking part to call on politicians to wake up.

"We've gone back to closing down roads because we can't stand it anymore," the mother of three told AFP. "What we earn today is not enough to buy the basics for home."

 

'Mafia gangs' 

 

Many Lebanese have lost their jobs or seen their salaries reduced by half in recent months.

Even as banks cap withdrawals, the value of the Lebanese pound to the US dollar has fallen by almost half on the parallel exchange market.

A 75-year-old who refused to give his name said he was protesting against the "mafia gangs" in power.

"To humiliate the Lebanese people, they formed mafia gangs with the banks and took out all the dollars," he charged.

In a televised speech, President Michel Aoun acknowledged the delay in agreeing a new Cabinet line-up but appealed for more time to find suitable candidates.

"What is needed is a government... to address the pressing economic and financial crisis," he told foreign envoys.

"The formation of this government demands choosing competent individuals who deserve the trust of the people and parliament, which takes time," he said.

 

'Sliding towards collapse' 

 

There were also demonstrations on Tuesday in the provinces, including in second city Tripoli in the north and the south-eastern town of Hasbayya, Lebanese television channels showed.

In Tripoli, 30-year-old Alaa Khodr said he and other protesters wanted a government to be formed rapidly without any representatives of traditional political parties.

"We want a government as soon as possible because the economic situation can no longer wait and the country is sliding towards collapse," he told AFP.

The protests had dwindled to symbolic gatherings in recent weeks after Diab, a professor and former education minister, was nominated last month.

But Lebanese have returned to the streets since Saturday, when hundreds gathered across the country to vent their frustration.

The protesters are demanding a new government made up solely of independent technocrats, but analysts warn this may be a tall order in a country ruled by a sectarian power-sharing system since the end of the civil war.

The World Bank has warned of a recession that may see the proportion of people living in poverty climb from a third to half the population. 

Even before the protests began, economic growth in Lebanon had slowed sharply in the face of repeated political deadlocks in recent years, compounded by the war in neighbouring Syria.

Iran's president urges 'unity' after plane protests

By - Jan 16,2020 - Last updated at Jan 16,2020

A mourner lights a candle at a memorial service for the victims of Ukrainian Airlines flight PS752 crash in Iran at Storkyrkan Church in Stockholm on Wednesday (AFP photo)

TEHRAN — President Hassan Rouhani appealed on Wednesday for "unity" and flagged the need for radical changes to the way Iran is run, after a wave of angry protests over the accidental downing of a Ukrainian airliner.

The Kiev-bound Boeing 737 was shot down in a catastrophic error shortly after takeoff from Tehran, killing all 176 people aboard.

One week on from the disaster, Rouhani called for "national unity" in remarks broadcast live on state television.

"If there was a delay" by the armed forces to release information about what happened, "let them apologise", he said.

The blunder and its handling by authorities sparked four consecutive nights of protests in Tehran calling for those responsible to resign or be prosecuted, leading to at least 30 arrests.

Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said people were demonstrating because they were deceived for days.

“In Iran... people can state their views. Sometimes they state their views in excessive ways, sometimes the reaction is excessive,” he said in New Delhi.

“But the fact of the matter is, [over the] last few nights we’ve had people in the streets of Tehran, demonstrating against the fact that they were lied to for a couple of days.”

Amnesty International said Wednesday it had evidence security personnel used “unlawful force” by targeting protesters with rubber bullets, tear gas, pepper spray, and airgun pellets. 

The London-based rights group said that “in many cases the actions by the security forces violated the absolute prohibition of torture and other ill-treatment under international law”.

A student association’s call to protest in Tehran on Wednesday afternoon was cancelled ahead of any gathering taking place.

 

Khamenei to lead prayers 

 

State news agency IRNA said Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei would lead Friday prayers in Tehran this week. It would be the first time he has done so in nearly eight years.

The latest protests have been much smaller than nationwide demonstrations against fuel price hikes in November that Amnesty International said left more than 300 dead in a crackdown by security forces.

The Ukraine International Airlines plane was downed with Iran on high alert hours after it fired a volley of missiles at US troops stationed in Iraq.

Iran launched the attack on Iraqi bases in retaliation for a US drone strike that killed Qassem Soleimani, the top commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ foreign operations arm.

Rouhani also on Wednesday said Iranians wanted “diversity” as he urged electoral authorities to refrain from disqualifying would-be candidates from a February 21 parliamentary election.

That would mark a major shift in a country where candidates are vetted for their loyalty by constitutional watchdog the guardian council.

“The people are our masters and we are its servants,” Rouhani said.

“Allow all parties and groups to run for office,” he said. “The country cannot be governed by one political wing alone.”

 

Crisis after crisis 

 

Iran has been rocked by crisis after crisis since 2018.

In May that year, US President Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew from a landmark 2015 agreement that gave Iran relief from sanctions in return for curbs on its nuclear programme.

Since then, the United States has slapped waves of sanctions on Iran as part of a “maximum pressure” campaign.

Washington says it seeks to rein in Tehran’s missile programme as well as its “destabilising behaviour” in the region.

Iran has hit back by progressively reducing its nuclear commitments.

On Tuesday, as tensions mounted over the downed airliner, European parties to the deal launched an arbitration process charging Iran with failing to observe its commitments to the accord.

Iran warned Britain, France and Germany they must “be prepared to accept the consequences” of their move.

 

‘American soldier not safe’ 

 

Rouhani blamed the Americans and their allies for causing “insecurity” across the Middle East.

Their “mistakes”, he said, included Soleimani’s killing, interventions in Iraq, Libya and Yemen, and the US decision to pull out of the nuclear deal and reimpose sanctions on Iranian oil.

“Security in this sensitive and important region will come at the expense of the entire world,” said Rouhani.

“Today the American soldier is not safe, tomorrow it could be the turn of the European soldier,” he added, warning the US and its allies to leave the region.

The downing of the plane came after a spate of disasters for Iran.

On January 7, at least 59 mourners were trampled to death at a funeral procession for Soleimani.

Iran has also been hit by flooding since Friday that has claimed at least three lives.

Rouhani said the disasters should lead to a “big decision” about Iran’s political system.

“And that major decision,” he said, “is national reconciliation”.

“These elections must be the first step.”

In 2017, Khamenei rejected the possibility of “national reconciliation”.

The idea, which called for more pluralism, had been presented at the time by reformists as a way to heal wounds left over from the disputed 2009 reelection of president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

Lebanon protesters demand end to political vacuum

By - Jan 15,2020 - Last updated at Jan 15,2020

A Lebanese anti-government protester waves the national flag next to a burning roadblock during a demonstration in the capital Beirut on Tuesday (AFP photo)

BEIRUT — Protesters resumed blocking major highways on Tuesday in what they said would be a "week of wrath" demanding an end to Lebanon's months-long political vacuum.

Although protests had declined in size in recent weeks, demonstrations have been ongoing since October, increasingly targeting banks and state institutions blamed for driving the country towards collapse.

The unprecedented cross-sectarian movement since October 17 has been fuelled by a crippling economic crisis, the worst since Lebanon's 1975-1990 civil war.

Debt-burdened Lebanon has been without a government since Saad Hariri resigned as prime minister on October 29, as political parties fail to agree on the makeup of a new team.

"Rebel, Beirut," dozens of protesters chanted as they marched to the sound of drums towards the home of premier designate Hassan Diab, who has struggled to form a cabinet since he was named on December 19.

"I want a government that can resolve the economic crisis as quickly as possible," said Nour, a 31-year-old marcher.

As a liquidity crisis grows and the cost of living rises, protesters have returned to the streets to urge politicians to swiftly form a cabinet of experts to respond to their demands.

On Tuesday morning, dozens of protesters blocked key highways in and around Beirut with overturned rubbish bins and burning tyres.

Laila Youssef, 47, said she was taking part to call on politicians to wake up.

“We’ve gone back to closing down roads because we can’t stand it anymore,” the mother of three told AFP. “What we earn today is not enough to buy the basics for home.”

 

 ‘Mafia gangs’ 

 

Many Lebanese have lost their jobs or seen their salaries reduced by half in recent months.

Even as banks cap withdrawals, the value of the Lebanese pound to the US dollar has fallen by almost half on the parallel exchange market.

A 75-year-old who refused to give his name said he was protesting against the “mafia gangs” in power.

“To humiliate the Lebanese people, they formed mafia gangs with the banks and took out all the dollars,” he charged.

In a televised speech, President Michel Aoun acknowledged the delay in agreeing a new cabinet line-up but appealed for more time to find suitable candidates.

“What is needed is a government with a specific speedy programme to address the pressing economic and financial crisis,” he told foreign envoys.

“The formation of this government demands choosing competent individuals who deserve the trust of the people and parliament, which takes time,” he said.

 

‘Sliding towards collapse’ 

 

There were also demonstrations on Tuesday in the provinces, including second city Tripoli and the south-eastern town of Hasbayya, Lebanese television channels showed.

In Tripoli, 30-year-old Alaa Khodr said he and other protesters wanted a government to be formed rapidly without any representatives of the traditional political parties.

“We want a government as soon as possible because the economic situation can no longer wait and the country is sliding towards collapse,” he told AFP.

The protests had dwindled to symbolic gatherings in recent weeks after Diab, a professor and former education minister, was nominated last month.

But Lebanese have returned to the streets since Saturday, when hundreds gathered across the country to vent their frustration.

The protesters are demanding a new government made up solely of independent technocrats, but analysts warn this may be a tall order in a country ruled by a sectarian power-sharing system since the end of the civil war.

The World Bank has warned of a recession that may see the proportion of people living in poverty climb from a third to half the population.

Even before the protests began, economic growth in Lebanon had slowed sharply in the face of repeated political deadlocks in recent years, compounded by the war in neighbouring Syria.

Public debt stands at almost $90 billion, or more than 150 per cent of GDP, according to the finance ministry.

Berlin summit to build on shaky Libyan ceasefire

Meetings raise hopes for end to fighting

By - Jan 15,2020 - Last updated at Jan 15,2020

Libyan children play on Tuesday in the Libyan capital Tripoli, controlled by the UN-recognised Government of National Accord (AFP photo)

MOSCOW — Diplomatic efforts to end the conflict in Libya ratcheted up on Tuesday as Russia said that the warring factions had agreed to maintain a fragile ceasefire and Germany announced an international summit on the crisis this Sunday.

Libyan strongman Khalifa Haftar left talks in Moscow on Tuesday without signing a permanent truce aimed at ending nine months of fighting, though Russia claimed he agreed to maintain the current ceasefire.

Berlin then announced it had invited both sides of the Libyan conflict to talks with 11 countries and several international organisations on Sunday.

Haftar and his allies were in Moscow on Monday for discussions with the United Nations-recognised government headed by Fayez Al Sarraj that is based in Tripoli.

The meetings raised hopes of an end to the latest fighting to wrack Libya since a 2011 NATO-backed uprising killed Muammar Qadhafi.

Russia's defence ministry said Haftar had asked for two days to consider the deal, stressing that a shaky ceasefire established at the weekend would continue.

Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov also promised to "pursue efforts" to mediate.

But Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan reacted angrily, warning that “we will not hesitate to teach the putschist Haftar a deserved lesson... if he continues his attacks on Libya’s legitimate administration and our brothers in Libya”.

Erdogan said the issue would be discussed in Berlin on Sunday by European, north African and Middle Eastern countries as well as the the UN, the EU, the African Union and the Arab League.

“The putschist Haftar did not sign the ceasefire. He first said yes, but later unfortunately he left Moscow, he fled Moscow,” Erdogan said, while praising “positive” talks.

 

Berlin summit 

 

Anxious to calm flaring tempers, Berlin called a UN-sponsored summit of 11 countries — including the USA, Russia, China and Turkey.

It remained unclear whether Haftar and Sarraj would also attend, though Berlin said both had been invited.

According to a source close to the discussions, a key aim of the summit will be to help Libya “sort out its problems without foreign influence”.

Western powers are keen to stabilise Libya — home to Africa’s largest proven crude reserves — following years of turbulence since the 2011 killing of Qadhafi.

Sarraj’s government has been under attack since April from forces loyal to Haftar, who is based in the east of the oil-rich north African country with his own loyalist politicians.

Since the start of the offensive against Tripoli, more than 280 civilians and 2,000 fighters have been killed and 146,000 Libyans displaced, according to the United Nations.

The clashes have also spurred a growing exodus of migrants from Libya, though nearly 1,000 intercepted at sea have been forced to return this year, according to the UN.

Putin and Erdogan made a joint call for a ceasefire, which started early on Sunday and was welcomed by the UN.

Putin later on Monday discussed the talks with German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

Ankara dispatched troops — in a training capacity, it said — to support the GNA in January in a move criticised by European powers and US President Donald Trump.

The GNA has signed agreements with Ankara assigning Turkey rights over a vast area of the gas-rich eastern Mediterranean, in a deal denounced by France, Greece, Egypt and Cyprus.

Russia has been accused of backing pro-Haftar forces, which are also supported by the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Egypt — all regional rivals of Turkey.

EU states launch process disputing Iran's nuclear compliance

By - Jan 15,2020 - Last updated at Jan 15,2020

A poster of slain military commander Qassem Soleimani is seen at a memorial for the victims of the Ukrainian plane crash, in University of Tehran, on Tuesday (AFP photo)

PARIS — Three EU countries on Tuesday launched a process charging Iran with failing to observe the terms of the 2015 deal curtailing its nuclear programme, a move that sparked anger and threats from Tehran at a time of growing tensions.

Russia also condemned the European move, warning it risked causing a "new escalation".

Britain, France and Germany insisted they remained committed to the agreement, which has already been severely tested by the US exit from the accord in 2018.

But even as their statement was released, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson indicated he might prefer a comprehensive accord negotiated with US President Donald Trump instead of the 2015 deal.

The decision to begin the so-called dispute mechanism process comes as tensions soar between the West and Iran following the killing of top commander Qassem Soleimani in a US strike, and the admission by Tehran days later that it had accidentally shot down a Ukrainian airliner.

The foreign ministers of the three European nations said Iran had been progressively scaling back its commitments under the deal since May last year.

“We have therefore been left with no choice, given Iran’s actions,” to begin the dispute process, their statement said.

In Moscow, the foreign ministry said it saw “no reason for such a move”.

“We do not rule out that the thoughtless actions of the Europeans could lead to a new escalation around the Iranian nuclear accord,” it said in a statement.

 

‘Accept the consequences’ 

 

The 2015 nuclear deal signed in Vienna — known as The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPoA) — has a provision that allows a party to claim significant non-compliance by another party before a joint commission.

If the issue is not resolved by the commission, it then goes to an advisory board and eventually to the UN Security Council, which could reimpose sanctions.

The first meeting of the process — set to include the European nations, Iran and the other parties to the deal, China and Russia — would take place in Austria by the end of the month, a diplomatic source told AFP in Vienna.

Iran had intensified sensitive activities to enrich uranium, which can be used to make a nuclear weapon, in response to Trump’s pulling out of the deal.

Its latest step in January to forgo the limit on the number of centrifuges used in uranium enrichment prompted the Europeans to trigger the mechanism.

But Tehran lashed out at the European countries and appeared to threaten unspecified retaliation.

“Of course, if the Europeans... seek to abuse [this process], they must also be prepared to accept the consequences,” the foreign ministry said in a statement.

 

‘Back to full compliance’ 

 

But the three powers said they “once again express our commitment” to the deal and expressed “determination to work with all participants to preserve it”.

“Our hope is to bring Iran back into full compliance with its commitments under the JCPoA,” they said.

The accord aimed to restrict Iran’s nuclear ambitions, which Western powers feared were aimed at developing weapons, in return for sanctions relief.

The three countries said they would not join “a campaign to implement maximum pressure against Iran” championed by Trump.

But Johnson said he would be willing to work on a “Trump deal” to replace the JCPoA, which was negotiated by the administration of former president Barack Obama.

“That’s what we need to see. I think that would be a great way forward,” Johnson said, noting that “from the American perspective it [the 2015 deal] is a flawed agreement”.

British Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab denied that Johnson’s remarks represented a shift, saying London backed the nuclear deal while also wanting a wider pact that would go beyond Iran’s atomic drive to cover all contentious issues.

 

Johnson ‘contradiction’ 

 

The European Union’s diplomatic chief Josep Borrell said it was “more important than ever” to save the 2015 Iranian nuclear deal “in light of the ongoing dangerous escalations in the Middle East”.

He emphasised that the aim of the dispute mechanism was not to reimpose sanctions.

Borrell told the European Parliament later “the British prime minister said things in contradiction with the letter signed by the [EU] foreign ministers.”

Speaking in the French city of Strasbourg, Borrell said: “I don’t see how one could develop another deal in such a complex context. It is not possible.”

Tensions between Iran and the United States last week climbed to their highest levels since the hostage crisis at the US embassy in Tehran that followed the 1979 Islamic Revolution that ousted the pro-American shah.

Iran has vowed retribution over the United States’ killing of Soleimani in a drone strike in Baghdad.

And while Iran’s attack on Iraqi bases housing US troops was seen as a relatively measured retaliation, Iranian forces mistakenly shot down over a Tehran suburb a Ukrainian plane killing all 176 passengers and crew on board.

Analysts said launching the deal’s dispute resolution mechanism gave Europe the advantage of taking control of the process, but warned that the move could also backfire.

What’s behind Haftar’s refusal to sign Libya deal?

By - Jan 14,2020 - Last updated at Jan 14,2020

A Libyan woman walks on Tuesday in the Libyan capital Tripoli, controlled by the UN-recognised Government of National Accord (AFP photo)

TRIPOLI — Military strongman Khalifa Haftar’s reluctance to sign up to a Turkish-Russian orchestrated ceasefire accord underlines the complexity of Libya’s conflict and pressures exerted by key foreign players, analysts say.

He left Moscow on Tuesday without signing a permanent truce aimed at ending nine months of fighting against the UN-recognised Government of National Accord (GNA) led by Fayez Al Sarraj.

His abrupt departure was a setback for an international diplomatic push, after Sarraj had signed up to halting Haftar’s offensive to seize Tripoli from the GNA.

For Emad Badi of the Washington-based Middle East Institute, there are two plausible explanations for Haftar walking away.

“Either he didn’t sign because he personally decided not regardless of the consequences, or... one of his backers guaranteed him support even if he did not sign.”

Abdelqader El Rehebi, a Libyan political analyst, said the motivation for Haftar to hold off on signing a definitive ceasefire deal was clear.

“Abu Dhabi, Riyadh, Cairo and Paris, the direct or indirect supporters of his military campaign... were not agreed” on the deal. “This makes his refusal logical.”

Rehebi said Haftar’s foreign backers had pressed him to keep up the Tripoli offensive “and, in return, [they pledged] to keep up their political and military support”.

Egypt, for example, a regional rival of Turkey which opposes Ankara’s support for the GNA, “rejects any consensus or reconciliation between the two camps that would permit a Turkish presence on the Libyan scene”, Rehebi said.

Peter Millett, a former British ambassador to Libya, tweeted that Haftar’s stand was a signal that the general and his backers “still think he can win militarily”.

 

‘Very expensive price’ 

 

But Mohamed Eljarh, another Libyan analyst, tweeted that Haftar had come under “enormous pressure” to sign.

“Once again, Haftar proves he is not bound by the wishes of his backers & those that sympathise with him. Not #Cairo, not #AbuDhabi, and not #Moscow. #Libya,” Eljarh wrote.

A former US special envoy to Libya, Jonathan M. Winer, said the strongman’s actions were true to form.

“That has been what I have both observed & been told by senior foreign officials of states that supported him in the past. A dictator is beholden to no one,” he tweeted.

Critics accuse Haftar of aiming to install a new dictatorship in Libya, which has been in chaos ever since the 2011 uprising that ousted and killed longtime ruler Muammar Qadhafi.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan reacted with fury to Haftar’s walkout.

“We will not hesitate to teach a deserved lesson to the putschist Haftar if he continues his attacks on the country’s legitimate administration and our brothers in Libya,” he said.

The general, who supports an administration based in eastern Libya, set his sights on Tripoli last April after conquering much of the south, in part by rallying powerful local tribes.

For Federica Saini Fasanotti of the Brookings Institution, “the price of this siege [of Tripoli] is also very expensive for Haftar”.

He “sees himself indebted to foreign countries that have supported him, but above all to the inhabitants” of eastern Libya.

“Families who lost their children in this war operation await a clear response from Haftar that can only end with victory, at least on paper. Without that, it will be very difficult” for him, she said.

Other analysts speculated that a secret annex to the ceasefire accord between Moscow and Ankara could explain Haftar’s opposition.

“Possibly, the two countries might have some ‘under the table’ deal for a possible new political lineup in Libya,” Claudia Gazzini of the International Crisis Group told AFP.

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