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‘Social curse’ of huge personal debt raises worries in wealthy Qatar

By - Mar 03,2016 - Last updated at Mar 03,2016

A general view shows HSBC Bank Tower (left) and Doha Bank Tower (right) in Doha in this April 30, 2012, file photo (Reuters photo)

DOHA — Credit cards on the limit, huge bank borrowings and a struggle to repay loans: these are the personal debt problems of some Qataris despite the Gulf state's reputation for fabulous wealth.

Generous government salaries and free healthcare, funded by vast natural gas reserves in a country with only about 300,000 citizens, do not always translate into healthy bank balances for ordinary Qataris.

Instead, they can come under intense social pressure to live way beyond their means, spending lavishly on everything from the latest smart phones and designer fashions to family weddings. Now their problems are deepening as diving global energy prices mean even the Qatari welfare state is becoming less generous.

Many are borrowing enormous sums from local banks to finance lifestyles they cannot afford, according to a study by Qatar University.

"The idea of Qataris being a small, lucky, happy few — it's a myth," said Laurent Lambert, of the university's Social and Economic Survey Research Institute. 

"Many do not have the income to match the lifestyle and a small percentage are significantly poor by local standards and struggling to make ends meet," he indicated.

Widespread personal debt, while familiar throughout the Gulf where loosely-regulated banks and extravagant living are commonplace, does not yet appear to threaten Qatar's overall financial system.

Of the 75 per cent of Qatari families in debt, most owe more than 250,000 riyals ($68,700), according to a 2014 Qatar National Development Strategy report, only a handful default on their loan payments, an offence punishable by prison.

But recent layoffs of some state employees and petrol price increases, reforms hastened by the sinking energy market, have refocused attention on indebtedness and the problems it could present to social cohesion if citizens start to press their relatives and the government heavily for help.

‘Fever’

While Qatar has a total population of 2.4 million, most are foreign workers who have less access to the cheap loans available in a country where a conventional banking system operates alongside, but separately from, Islamic financial institutions.

Likened to a "social curse" by Qatari commentators and a "fever spreading from house to house", over-indebtedness among the much smaller local population is a raising national concern.

Radio talk shows air interviews with distressed civil servants who complain of becoming mired in debt after borrowing from banks without understanding the costs of repayment.

In Friday sermons, Muslim clerics rail against those who finance holidays to Europe and lavish wedding parties with loans that can devour salaries and lead to depression and divorce.

Part of the problem, some Qataris say, is that the country's economic boom during the era of high energy prices that lasted until mid-2014 rapidly pushed up standards of living — and expectations of what it means to be both wealthy and successful.

"You cannot have a bad watch on your wrist, a second-hand car, or an old telephone. You need to have the latest models so as not to appear 'poor'," said Mohammed Al Mari, a former traffic policeman who works in the charity sector.

"People end up pretending they have money just to keep up. There is this social pressure," he added.

Al Mari said that while he has managed to pay off debts and save money during his career years, he knew of a recent university graduate who was struggling. "He buys the latest iPhone because his peers have it but then, at the end of the month, he sells it back to pay his bills," he added.

Al Mari recalled how a Qatari woman had recently flown to neighbouring Dubai to purchase a counterfeit designer handbag.    

"Her friend had bought a bag that she wanted but couldn't afford," he said.

As well as a culture of extravagance and conspicuous consumption among some, others decry Qatar's "welfare syndrome" that has led a generation to believe it can live carelessly and be bailed out by relatives or a paternalistic government.

Spreading wealth

Part of a strategy by Gulf Arab governments to distribute some of their newly-discovered wealth, loans were extended to citizens in the 1960s and '70s and again in the early 2000s to help them buy shares in the state's multi-billion dollar energy enterprises.

Liberal lending by local banks, flush with funds from a fast-growing economy, was later extended to households wanting for instance to build a holiday home or buy a new car. These were handed loans, often several times their annual salary, with virtually no collateral.

"It was a free for all. Anyone could borrow basically as much they wanted," said Mohamed Al Kubaisa, a Qatari sociologist and newspaper columnist.

After concerns grew about the proliferation of loans and of Qataris unable to pay them back, the central bank imposed in 2011 a cap of two million riyals on consumer credit secured only against borrowers' salaries, with a maximum repayment period of six years.

Later that year, as Arab Spring protests spread across the region, the government raised state employees' salaries by 60 per cent and by 120 per cent for military personnel.

In a similar move neighbouring Saudi Arabia, which like Qatar escaped major Arab Spring unrest, boosted welfare spending sharply in an apparent attempt to secure social peace.

Also in 2011, the United Arab Emirates set up a fund to help cover low-income citizens' debts. Wielding oil-funded state largesse, Kuwait has occasionally paid off citizens' personal loans in response to popular pressure.

Qataris are divided over how to tackle the debt problem.

Those who see fault in the reckless spending habits of individuals advocate imposing upper limits on spending for marriage ceremonies and other social occasions, with penalties for those who violate.

Others say the government should more strictly regulate the banks, for which personal loans remain a lucrative business, and help launch more share offerings to encourage citizens to enjoy long-term benefits such as bonus issues and regular dividends.

Authorities have tried to raise awareness about the depth of the problem, launching a campaign titled "Debt is Disgraceful" in 2013 that saw donations collected to help pay money owed by debtors in prison or others threatened with criminal charges.

But some Qataris say that absolving people of their debts sets an unhealthy precedent.

"If you remove a person's debt, you also absolve them of their personal responsibility to repay the debt," said Mustafa Al Khamisi, who owns an audit firm. 

 

"That is really dangerous, because if you start eroding a person's responsibility towards society, you start eroding society itself," he added.

Poor data raises specter of Brazilian depression

By - Mar 03,2016 - Last updated at Mar 03,2016

BRASILIA — Brazil's economy contracted sharply in 2015 as businesses slashed investment plans and laid off more than 1.5 million workers, official data showed on Thursday, setting the stage for what could be the country's deepest recession on record.

Gross domestic product (GDP) shrank 3.8 per cent last year, capped by another steep contraction in the fourth quarter, according to Brazilian statistics agency IBGE. It was the worst performance of any Group of 20 nation in 2015.

It was also Brazil's largest annual contraction since 1990, when the country was struggling with hyperinflation and a debt default. The outlook for 2016 is nearly as bad, with a central bank survey forecasting a 3.45 per cent contraction.

Back-to-back annual drops of that magnitude would amount to the longest and deepest downturn since Brazil began keeping records in 1901.

Brazil is "replicating the lost decade of the '80s in just two years", Goldman Sachs economist Alberto Ramos indicated in a research report. He added that the economy was close to an outright depression given that its contraction began nearly two years ago.

A paralysing political crisis, rising inflation and interest rates and a sharp drop in prices of key commodity exports have formed a toxic cocktail for Latin America's largest economy. The disastrous burst of a major mining dam and the biggest oil strike in 20 years added further strain in 2015.

Last year's contraction matched market expectations in a Reuters poll. Yields on interest rate futures rose after the data was published, also reflecting a split central bank decision to leave interest rates unchanged on Wednesday.

Stocks on the Sao Paulo exchange gained, as did the country's currency, the real.

Brazil's government said the poor data had been expected and added that it was focused on boosting the economy this year. 

"We want 2016 to be a year of recovery for jobs, employment, income, with economic growth," Labour Minister Miguel Rossetto said.

However, a private survey on Thursday showed services activity in February fell at the steepest pace on record, suggesting the economy had yet to hit bottom.

"We will probably see a similar contraction this year. There are no growth engines yet. The only one could be exports. But Brazil's economy is relatively closed, so we don't see that taking us out of this hole," said Joao Pedro Ribeiro, Latin America economist with Nomura Securities.

Costly stimulus

Brazil, once the world's seventh-biggest economy, has been underperforming since 2011, the year leftist President Dilma Rousseff took office. A sharp increase in government spending and subsidised credit underpinned the labour market until 2014, at the cost of fuelling inflation and eroding government finances.

The recession took root just as Rousseff started to roll back the costly stimulus policies, hiking taxes and interest rates and slashing investments in oil production. 

A corruption scandal at state-run oil producer Petroleo Brasileiro SA  and major construction firms also froze work at many infrastructure projects across the country.

Rousseff's popularity plummeted to record lows last year, fueling street protests and calls for her impeachment.

"Despite all the rhetoric from Rousseff last year about boosting private investment, it's abundantly clear that investors, both foreign and domestic, are staying away in their droves," said Michael Henderson, lead economist with consulting firm Verisk Maplecroft in England.

 

The downturn has been so severe that Brazil's economy will probably only regain its previous size by 2019, as it grapples with a much larger debt load, according to a Reuters poll.

Oil's squeeze spreads from Gulf Arab states to banks

By - Mar 03,2016 - Last updated at Mar 03,2016

DUBAI/DOHA — Low oil prices are forcing Gulf Arab states to borrow to prop up their economies and are now taking their toll on the region's banks too, complicating their efforts to raise capital required by regulators.

The impact of crude's fall from more than $100 to below $30 a barrel in less than 18 months has already been felt by oil and gas revenue dependent Middle Eastern countries which have had to borrow to prop up their economies.

And international investors have been avoiding the Gulf region's debt in recent months as a result, concerned about slower economic growth and substantial budget deficits.

This has had a knock-on effect on banks from Doha to Muscat, with the ensuing slump in stock prices and bond market volatility making it impossible for them to raise new capital so far this year, a situation which is unlikely to ease in the near future as they will have to compete with governments needing to borrow billions of dollars to pay their bills.

A dozen of the region's banks have announced capital raising plans as they try to meet local regulatory requirements, which in some cases are above the levels set by the Basel III banking accord, and top up reserves after years of lending growth.

These plans are now on ice and Gulf banks have to decide whether to attempt to borrow at a higher cost or hold out and risk falling short of more stringent regulatory requirements, which come into force over the next three years.

Another potential complication is that the flight of international buyers means banks will have to turn to local investors to buy their debt or equity. The problem here is that banks themselves are the largest regional debt investors.

Gulf banks reinforced their capital buffers in the wake of the global financial crisis so are not in any imminent danger, according to bankers and analysts.

However, they don't have the same funds to deploy as before as Gulf governments have withdrawn some of their deposits to bridge budget shortfalls, which as in Europe during the eurozone crisis, has exposed the interlinked relationship between governments and banks when bond markets fall.

The trend is perhaps most prevalent in Qatar, where half its commercial lenders have announced capital plans, including the largest conventional and Islamic banks, respectively Qatar National Bank and Qatar Islamic Bank.

"Market volatility has absolutely impacted plans for raising capital-boosting sukuk [Islamic bonds] but we are in a good position," QIB Chairman  Jassim Bin Hamad Al Thani told Reuters at the bank's annual general meeting.

QIB's total capital adequacy ratio (CAR), a key indicator of its health, stood at 14.1 per cent at the end of December, above Qatar's minimum requirement of 12.5 per cent, even though its total lending jumped 46.1 per cent in 2015.

Although Basel III's core equity minimum is 7 per cent, rising to 9.5 for the biggest global banks, most countries have set levels well above this, with Kuwait requiring 13 per cent.

But further increases are due which would eliminate the bank's room for manoeuvre. The 15.125 per cent minimum CAR set by Oman for 2019 would put most lenders there below or close to the limit at current capital levels.

Pricing Gulf

Gulf secondary bond markets have been particularly volatile since the start of the year, with the yields on perpetual bonds issued by banks to boost their capital widening significantly as prices have fallen.

This has forced high-net-worth individuals and private banks, traditionally major holders of perpetual bonds, to sell and will discourage them from buying back in, Ram Mohan Nataraja, portfolio manager at Invest AD, said.

"The usual latent demand will also be much lower, given the overall volatile market conditions," he added.

Although the relative illiquidity of these instruments accentuates such moves, they are generally considered riskier investments than regular bank bonds and this was apparent in some of their recent price movements.

Burgan Bank,, Kuwait's third-largest lender by assets, sold perpetual bonds in September 2014 with a 7.25 per cent coupon. These yielded 9.476 per cent on January 11, before spiking to 11.525 per cent on February 3.

Even National Bank of Kuwait, which boasts one of the highest credit ratings of any Gulf bank, saw trading on its 5.75 per cent bond issued in April 2015 jump from 5.92 per cent at the start of the year to 7.27 per cent on January 22.

These moves suggest that enticing investors to buy new capital-boosting bonds will require banks to pay higher, more attractive coupons, something that will grate with Gulf bond issuers who are traditionally regarded as extremely price-sensitive.

But limited options mean price is likely to trump pride.

Slumping stock markets, Dubai's bourse dropped 39 per cent between mid-July and mid-January, while Saudi Arabia's index is down 10.1 per cent year-to-date, means equity investors would be loathe to plough money into rights issues.

So-called contingent-capital bonds have never been sold in the Middle East, while convertible bonds are also a rarity.

And while retaining earnings would give bank reserves a minor lift, it would cut into shareholder dividend payments which are already in the sights of local regulators.

The United Arab Emirates central bank told its lenders to get approval before disclosing payouts for 2015, while Oman's regulator warned it could intervene on dividends to support capital ratios.

Banks seem poised to wait for better markets to place capital-boosting bonds and sukuk, according to bankers, although time is limited.

 

Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Oman are among the countries expected to issue bonds and the start of the holy month of Ramadan in June may mark the start of a three-month market shutdown for the Middle East's long summer break.

Australia's economy expands faster than expected

By - Mar 02,2016 - Last updated at Mar 02,2016

A worker stands behind a grill on one of two buildings under construction in the suburb of North Sydney, Australia, on Tuesday (Reuters photo)

SYDNEY — Australia's economy strengthened last year supported by consumer and government spending, data showed Wednesday, with the better-than-expected figures raising hopes the resources-dependent nation is emerging out of a recent slump.

Economic growth expanded by 0.6 per cent in October to December to take the annual rate of expansion to a surprise 3 per cent, figures released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed.

The figures beat market expectations of fourth-quarter growth of 0.4 per cent for year-on-year growth of 2.5 per cent, and sent the Australian dollar jumping almost half a cent to 72.19 US cents.

"Today's December quarter national accounts show once again that Australia continues to successfully manage the transition from the largest resources investment boom in our history to broader-based growth," Treasurer Scott Morrison told reporters in Canberra.

"We are growing faster than every economy in the group of 7, growing well above the average of countries in the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development. We are growing faster than the United States and the United Kingdom, more than twice the pace of comparable resource-based economies like Canada," he said.

The healthy figures were further supported by an upwards revision of the September quarter growth rate from 0.9 per cent to 1.1 per cent, the strongest three-month reading since March 2012.

Household spending contributed 0.4 percentage points to the December quarter growth while public gross fixed capital formation, which includes construction and infrastructure spending, added 0.2 percentage points to gross domestic product (GDP), the data showed.

The gains were offset by a fall in business spending, which weakened the quarterly growth reading by 0.2 percentage points, as investment in the mining sector continued to soften.

Central bank on hold 

The Australian economy has slowed as the country exits an unprecedented mining investment boom that has helped it avoid a recession for 24 years, with the jobless rate hovering around a decade high and wage growth and business investment outside the resources sector both tepid.

The central Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has been trimming interest rates since November 2011, with the last cut in May 2015 taking it to a record-low of 2 per cent, as it sought to boost growth in non-mining sectors.

But the labour market showed signs of strengthening in late 2015, while consumers appeared to be more willing to open their wallets amid a booming residential housing sector.

The central bank kept the cash rate on hold on Tuesday, saying it was monitoring the improvement in the jobs market and that there were "reasonable prospects for continued growth in the economy, with inflation close to target".

The latest readings are better than the RBA's forecast of 2.5 per cent for the year to December 2015 and reinforces its stance to stay on the sidelines at this time, economists said.

"The latter half of last year looks a fair bit stronger than was realised at that time," JP Morgan senior economist Ben Jarman said.  "A lot of the most recent strength comes from consumer spending."

"With other things equal, this means that the RBA can have a bit more confidence in the domestic demand side of things. This helps their on-hold stance," he added.

While the headline figures were healthy, the income side of the economy remained weak, with nominal GDP, which is not adjusted for inflation, at 0.4 per cent for the quarter and 2.4 per cent year-on-year.

The terms of trade, a ratio that measures export prices to import prices, fell 3.2 per cent for the fourth quarter to decline 12 per cent on-year, amid weakening commodity prices.

"Income growth is soft. We've got a measure of living standards, and this is the fourth year of decline in that measure," Deutsche Bank economist Phil O'Donaghoe said.

"The cost of having strong employment in an economy like this is that income growth is so weak," he added.

Separately, Australia followed major world powers by lifting sanctions on Iran on Wednesday, after confirmation from the United Nations that Tehran had taken steps required to curb its disputed nuclear programme.

Under changes announced by the Australian government, businesses will no longer need to seek approval for transactions of more than A$20,000 ($14,436) involving entities from Iran.

While Australia has suspended some of the sanctions imposed on Iran autonomously in 2008 because of the Islamic republic's nuclear programme, some non-nuclear sanctions remain in place, the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade said in a statement.

Sanctions still in force against Iran include restrictions on the transfer of proliferation sensitive goods, the arms and ballistic missiles embargoes and sanctions against some designated persons and entities.

Australia's anti-money laundering watchdog AUSTRAC expects reporting entities to scrutinise all payments that are routed via third-party countries to Iran or North Korea, which is also subject to sanctions due to its nuclear programme.

 

AUSTRAC says all transactions to those two countries should be considered as "high risk".

Debt collectors strike fear in recession-hit Russia

By - Mar 02,2016 - Last updated at Mar 02,2016

MOSCOW — "If you don't die by yourself, we'll help you," threaten the phone messages that Natalya, a 69-year-old Russian pensioner, has been receiving for months after falling further behind on her credit card payments.

Resorting to harassment and threats of violence, debt collectors sent out by banks to recover money have become notorious in Russia and, many complain, usually face no punishment.

But as Russia's unpaid debt soars to dramatic levels due to an economic crisis, authorities are now seeking to regulate the cowboy sector.

For Natalya, who declined to give her full name due to fear of reprisal, the problems began last summer.

She had to go into hospital and was forced to stop the part-time car park supervisor's job that supplements her monthly pension of around 150 euros ($164) plus the 70-euro disability benefit of her son, who lives with her.

It became impossible for Natalya, who lives in the region outside Moscow, to cover the monthly bills for her credit card which she says come to about 5,000 rubles (60 euros, $66), although she does not understand exactly what the amount represents.

Interest rates can reach as high as 20 per cent for longer term loans such as mortgages, and much higher for short term ones.

The menacing phone calls have become increasingly frequent, "day and night", she said.

Noting the telephone numbers used by the debt collectors, she has listed up to 18 calls per day.

The callers' tone has also grown more menacing, with threats of violence.

"We will come to your home to see if you have any gold teeth," or "we will confiscate your property", and "we will make you run for the cemetery" — just some of the threats she received.

"They got me into such a state that I didn't have the strength to leave my flat. I begged them but to no avail. They just kept on shouting and insulting me," she said, fighting back tears.

She finally went to a lawyers' association to attempt to get her repayments cut to a manageable level.

Mounting unpaid loans

Natalya's case is far from unusual, as are the tactics used against her. 

Russian media has carried reports of bailiffs beating up people with debts, posting insults in the entrance halls of their apartment blocks and threatening to attack their children.

"Over the last year, we have seen a wave of complaints," said Irina Malinina, a lawyer who heads a group helping people with unpaid loans.

"Delays or failures to make payments have increased so visits and phone calls from debt collectors have gone up," she added.

Collapsing oil prices and sanctions on Russia due to the conflict in Ukraine have plunged the country into recession, prompting a drop in spending power that caught out many Russians who had taken loans during the boom years when credit was available with almost no background cheques.

Payments were late on nearly 18 per cent of personal loans on January 1, up from 10.3 per cent a year earlier, according to the National Bureau of Credit Histories, a company that holds a large database of credit history records.

Exacerbating the situation, banks have sought to unload their bad loans by selling them to debt collector agencies.

Banks have also tightened the criteria for granting loans, pushing Russians towards small microcredit organisations offering short-term "payday" loans.

The situation is particularly difficult in the provinces, where the standard of living is low and people are ill-informed about their legal rights.

Anti-debt collector app

Siberian programmer Yevgeny Pyatkovsky, who is in his 30s, has created a smartphone app that allows users to add numbers of debt collectors to a database and block their calls. 

Designed initially for his own family, the Antikollektor app now has 300,000 users, he said.

He explained that the app has a dual aim: to protect relatives of debtors, who are sometimes also targeted, and to spare people who owe money from the "enormous stress" of harassment by debt collectors.

After long ignoring the issue, the authorities finally took notice as media reports of abuses by debt collectors have multiplied.

The investigative committee and the prosecutor general's office vowed to severely punish a debt collector in the Volga city of Ulyanovsk, who in January threw a Molotov cocktail into the house of a man who had taken out a small loan, causing his two-year-old grandson to suffer serious burns.

In mid-February, the speakers of the upper and lower houses of parliament, Sergei Naryshkin and Valentina Matviyenko, submitted a draft law regulating debt collection.

It limits the lawful number of phone calls debt collectors can make and bans them altogether at night, as well as penalising harassment.

But Malinina believes it does not go far enough.

 

"The constitution already bans entering properties, making threats and resorting to physical violence," she complained.

Airbus starts work on new China facility

By - Mar 02,2016 - Last updated at Mar 02,2016

TIANJIN, China — Europe's largest aircraft manufacturer Airbus started construction Wednesday on a new facility to deliver wide-body planes in China, as it faces off against bitter US rival Boeing for market share in the world's second-largest economy.

At a ceremony in the northern port of Tianjin, Airbus Chief Executive Officer Fabrice Bregier and Chinese officials officially broke ground for the completion and delivery centre that will produce two A330 planes per month.

The centre is an expansion of the firm's existing final assembly plant for A320 single-aisle aircraft in the city.

It comes with China's economic growth at its weakest in a quarter of a century and concerns over its outlook sending shivers through global stock exchanges.

But Bregier said that "this is not true for our market", adding that increased middle-class incomes and easing visa rules were driving a boom in Chinese air travel.

The world's second-largest economy is already Asia's biggest aircraft buyer as a growing middle class takes to the skies in ever-increasing numbers. The country is forecast to have 1.7 billion air passengers by 2034, and is poised in the next two decades to become the largest civil aviation market in the world.

The new $150 million centre is the company's first such facility for wide-body aircraft outside Europe, and "marks a new milestone for Airbus' international footprint", Bregier said. 

It will take flyable unpainted aircraft from their headquarters in Toulouse, France and add cabins, furnishings and paint, before they are delivered to customers.

Boeing also plans to open a completion centre in China, it announced last year. The company sold 300 aircraft worth a record $38 billion during President Xi Jinping's visit to the US in 2015.

The two firms have been in a fierce battle for market share in China, where Airbus says it has gone from 27 per cent in 2004, before it opened the Tianjin final assembly line, to roughly 50 per cent today. 

The country is now Airbus' largest market, accounting for nearly a quarter of the planes it delivered in 2015. Days before the ground-breaking, Air China announced orders for 12 wide-body aircraft for $2.9 billion.

"I understand that our competitor is trying to mimic" the Airbus strategy by opening a facility, Bregier said in Tianjin, but added: "It's not really state-of-the-art."

 

A Boeing spokesman retorted: "Partnership is defined by more than a few buildings," calling its relationships in the country "second to none" in supporting the development of Chinese aviation.

Singapore office vacancies to rise as economy falters

By - Mar 01,2016 - Last updated at Mar 01,2016

GuocoLand Ltd.'s mixed-use Tanjong Pagar Centre (right), soon to be the tallest building in the city-state, towers over other buildings in the central business district of Singapore on Monday (Reuters photo)

SINGAPORE — Vacancies at Singapore's gleaming office towers are nearing their highest level in almost a decade, with construction of the city-state's tallest building, GuocoLand Ltd.'s 64-floor block in the financial district, wrapping up just as the economy slows.

Singapore's export-oriented economy has been hit by the slowdown in China and beyond, which has also put pressure on key sectors such as marine oil and gas, commodity trading and banks. Last year, the economy grew at just 2 per cent, its slowest pace since 2009.

A January review by real estate services firm JLL of major foreign international banks in the financial district showed half had either reduced the size of their office space over the past year and a half, or had to contend with extra space.

Analysts predict vacancy rates will continue to rise this year, with JLL estimating prime office rents to fall between 10 per cent and 20 per cent after dropping 15 per cent last year in a city that is ranked the 11th most expensive in the world to rent top quality offices.

Nicholas Mak, executive director at SLP International Property Consultants, said many of the buildings that are now ready for occupancy were planned about five years ago, towards the end of the global financial crisis.

"Many people thought that this is the new boom, let's try to capitalise on it. Nobody expected the party to end by end of 2015," he added, noting that office vacancy rates could hit 13.5 per cent, a level not seen since 2005.

Broader cost-cutting at banks due to the slowdown in the global economy is likely to have an impact on vacancies as financial institutions are key tenants for prime commercial space in Singapore.

Barclays will cut about 1,000 jobs in investment banking worldwide and close its cash equities business in Asia, an internal memo seen by Reuters showed.

Societe Generale gave up two floors in an office tower after selling its private banking activities in Asia to DBS Group Holdings in end-2014. It added three-quarters of a floor to existing space in another building.

Mak said vacancy rates could improve by the end of next year if the economy picks up and as demand catches up with the supply, easing the glut.

In the meantime, office landlord are limiting the number of leases that will expire over the next couple of years as well as diversifying their tenants to cope with the glut.

"This will be a short-term blip," Lynette Leong, chief executive of CapitaLand Commercial Trust, said in January.

 

Banking, insurance and financial services represented 33 per cent of CapitaLand Commercial Trust's tenant mix at end-2015, compared with 38 per cent five years ago, its results show.

Protecting migrant workers can benefit host countries’ economies, UN says

By - Mar 01,2016 - Last updated at Mar 01,2016

BANGKOK — Governments must provide migrant labourers with the same benefits and social protections they give their own citizens, which will boost their economies and worker productivity, a United Nations official said.

Of the estimated 232 million migrants in the world in 2013, more than 95 million are from the Asia-Pacific region, according to the UN’s Asia-Pacific Migration Report 2015 launched this week in Bangkok.

Migrants contribute significantly to gross domestic product (GDP) growth in host countries, while sending home about $435 billion in remittances to developing countries in 2015, with Asia-Pacific nations receiving the highest amounts, the report indicated citing World Bank estimates.

Yet, many face abuses at every step of the way, from recruitment agencies and job brokers at home to exploitative employers, officials and police abroad.

It is the responsibility of governments in the countries that send and receive migrants to have domestic, regional and inter-country discussions to create the policies and conditions necessary for safe migration, said Hongjoo Hahm, deputy executive secretary of the UN’s regional development arm.

“When the recipient country provides social protection for the migrants — that is, healthcare, unemployment compensations, social safety net, education for their children... productivity of the migrants increases. It clearly has a benefit to the national economy,” he added, at the report’s launch on Monday.

“Treat them with dignity, treat them fairly, and provide the same protections that you provide your citizens, and... you will be rewarded for it,” Hahm continued.

Origin countries, he stressed, must create a system for orderly and structured migration.

“Too often, migrants have to rely on intermediaries that charge them exorbitant fees, and they are forever in debt, paying off their debt,” he elaborated.

“Creating fairness in terms of the employment process, both at the recipient country and at the home country, is really crucial, so that you get rid of the middlemen and you make migration a labour movement policy that we see in other parts of the world,” Hahm emphasised.

The region’s top country of origin for migrants in 2013 was India, with 14 million migrants leaving the country, followed by Russia, China, Bangladesh, Pakistan, the Philippines, Afghanistan, Kazakhstan, Turkey and Indonesia.

The top destination in the region that year was Russia, with 11 million migrant arrivals, followed by Australia, India, Pakistan, Thailand, Kazakhstan, China, Iran, Malaysia and Japan.

Most of the region’s migrants go to nearby or neighbouring countries, with Asia-Pacific hosting about 59 million migrants, while others go further afield to work in places such as the Middle East and North America.

 

Hahm cited the Philippines, which sends about 2 million citizens abroad each year, as a country that supports migrants as they prepare to go abroad, and also helps them to acclimatise to life back home when they return.

Kabariti calls for new channels to develop Jordanian-Brazilian ties

By - Mar 01,2016 - Last updated at Mar 01,2016

AMMAN — Jordan Chamber of Commerce (JCC) President Nael Kabariti on Tuesday called for opening new channels to develop economic relations between Jordan and Brazil and to encourage the private sector to establish joint investment projects, increasing the volume of bilateral trade.

Meeting with the director of the Arab-Brazilian Chamber of Commerce, Kabariti urged Brazilian businesspeople to benefit from Jordan’s location and stability as a centre of commerce and investment in the Middle East, despite the conditions of the region.

Kabariti voiced the private sector’s willingness to benefit from the big Brazilian markets and its varying products of foodstuffs, car parts and heavy machinery. Jordan’s exports to Brazil amounted to around $7 million in 2014 whereas imports amounted to $268 million, according to the JCC president.

The meeting also covered preparations for a visit of a Jordanian delegation to Brazil, in order to participate in the APAS 2016, the biggest trade show to be held in Latin America next May.

India pledges billions for farmers in 'populist' budget

By - Feb 29,2016 - Last updated at Feb 29,2016

Indian workers carry a bag containing copies of the federal budget for the year 2016-17, that were distributed later to lawmakers at the parliament house in New Delhi, India, on Monday (AP photo)

NEW DELHI — India's government pledged billions of dollars to help struggling farmers and boost the rural economy as it unveiled its annual budget on Monday, with an eye on kickstarting growth and boosting its flagging popularity.

India is now the world's fastest-growing major economy, but two years of drought and a failure to create jobs for a burgeoning young population has left millions of rural Indians struggling and led to deadly protests in recent weeks.

The government came to power nearly two years ago promising to transform India's economic fortunes, but has been hampered by the global economic slowdown and a failure to push much-needed reforms through parliament.

Finance Minister Arun Jaitley acknowledged the challenges as he presented the budget in parliament, but said he had a "vision to transform India".

"We have a desire to provide socio-economic security to every Indian, especially the farmers, the poor and the vulnerable," he added. "We have a dream to see a more prosperous India and a vision to transform India."

Jaitley pledged to spend 359 billion rupees ($5.2 billion) on doubling the income of India's estimated 120 million farmers over the next five years through measures including a crop insurance scheme and better access to markets.

India also plans to raise credit available to farmers to 9 trillion rupees for 2016-2017, and has pledged to ensure all the country's villages would have electricity within two years.

It will increase spending on the National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme, which guarantees 100 days of employment on public works each year for any household that requests it.

Stalled reforms 

Analyst Samir Saran said the ruling Bharathiya Janata Party (BJP) was "responding to the political reality" ahead of crucial state elections this year and next.

"The BJP has to lay greater emphasis on social policy, it has to deliver a more populist budget," added Saran, a senior fellow at the Observer Research Foundation think tank. "The government is also responding to the fact that farmers have suffered two bad monsoons and there is great stress in the rural sector."

The BJP needs to perform well in those elections in order to push stalled economic reforms through the national parliament, where it lacks a majority.

These include Prime Minister Narendra Modi's flagship plan to introduce a national Goods and Services Tax (GST) to replace myriad complex state and national levies seen as deterring much-needed investment.

India is seen as a relative bright spot in the world economy, but feeble global demand has caused its exports to shrink for 14 months in a row and investment remains weak.

On Friday, the government forecast gross domestic product (GDP) would expand between 7 per cent and 7.75 per cent in the next financial year, marking little change from this year's levels.

The main Sensex index on the Bombay Stock Exchange fell 300 points during Jaitley's presentation of the budget, which included a hefty 23 per cent pay rise for millions of civil servants and a pension scheme for retired soldiers.

The two schemes will add billions of dollars to the government's spending bill over the next year, but Jaitley said it would stick to its ambitious target to cut the fiscal deficit to 3.5 per cent of the GDP in 2016-2017.

He also pledged to spend 2.21 trillion rupees on improvements to its creaking roads and other infrastructure seen as key to attracting investment for manufacturing.

The government will also inject 250 billion rupees into India's ailing public sector banks, which are weighed down by bad loans.

Despite a major push to boost manufacturing, farming remains by far the biggest employer in India and the sector is struggling after two years of weak monsoon rains.

This month the Jats, traditionally a farming caste, sparked riots in northern India to press their demands for better access to government jobs and education. They say they are struggling to make a living in farming.

The BJP performed poorly in elections in the impoverished eastern state of Bihar last year and faces polls in other major farming states this year and next.

According to activists, a complete overhaul of credit and subsidies to farmers is needed as government action to increase spending on irrigation and crop insurance is not enough to end a cycle of indebtedness that has led to thousands of farmer suicides.

Drought in many parts of the country has hit rice, cotton and other crops, and lower world commodity prices have added to the farmers' plight.

More than half India's farming households are in debt, owing banks and moneylenders hundreds of millions of rupees, despite numerous loan write-offs by successive governments.

Tens of thousands of farmers across the country have killed themselves over the past decade, several farmers' lobbying groups said.

Farmers' groups have been demanding better monsoon forecasts, bigger fertiliser subsidies and a state-funded insurance scheme for all crops, to help farmers improve yields and help prevent crop failures.

"The need of the hour is a focus on the dying farmer community," said activist Kishor Tiwari, who heads a task force set up to recommend action to tackle farmer suicides in western Maharashtra state, which accounted for more than half of all  suicides among Indian farmers in 2014.

"Debt is a core issue, and it needs a long-term plan to resolve it," he added.

While inter-generational bonded labour in the farming community is no longer as common as before, the number of poor and landless workers who are in debt bondage is rising, particularly in agriculture, brick kilns and stone quarries, activists say.

Indian farmers seldom own the land they cultivate, and often take loans to buy seeds and fertilisers. Only about one-tenth of India's 263 million cultivators take out crop insurance because of the high premiums.

Unpredictable weather and low crop yields have made farming unviable for many. Financial assistance provided by the government usually doesn't cover the losses, and some farmers have migrated to urban areas for low-paid jobs, even selling their blood to make ends meet.

Tiwari, in a plan submitted to the Maharashtra government, has recommended direct cash subsidies for farmers instead of the current indirect agriculture credit.

He also suggested the central and state governments help underwrite full crop insurance cover and promote the adoption of organic farming methods in drought-prone districts, to help restore soil quality and benefit from the higher price of organic produce, even though yields are lower.

A total of 5,650 farmer suicides were recorded in India in 2014, more than half of them in Maharashtra, according to the National Crime Records Bureau. The states of Madhya Pradesh, Telangana, Chattisgarh and Karnataka also had large numbers of farmer suicides.

The Cabinet in January cleared a proposal for the country's first major crop-damage insurance scheme. The government has said it will reduce premiums to be paid by farmers, and ensure faster settlements.

Delays in estimating crop damage and paying claims are a big challenge, said Sunita Narain, director of non-profit Centre for Science and Environment in New Delhi.

The government must encourage the use of new technologies, including remote sensing and mobile-based image capturing systems to improve yield data and claims processing, she added.

"Insurance coverage has to be universal and payouts enough to cover losses," she wrote in a blog.

Farm output contributes about 15 per cent to India's $2 trillion economy, and farmers and rural communities are a large and powerful vote bank.

Politicians have often promised to waive farmers' loan repayments, but have not addressed the underlying reasons for their chronic indebtedness, Tiwari said.

 

"Loan waivers are not the solution; it is like a simple dressing for a cancer tumour. You need to excise the tumour and address the cause of the disease," he added.

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