From ‘Geneva 2’ to ‘Vienna 2’

Three key factors contributed to the failure to find a solution to the crisis in Syria during the Geneva 2 talks: not giving priority to fighting terrorism over the political solution; refusing any Iranian participation in the process; the call for an immediate departure of President Bashar Assad before the launch of the political process.

At Vienna 2, these major factors turn to be the essential foundations that most of the major super power countries agreed upon. 

Moscow’s strategy of “filling the military vacuum in facing terrorism” began to show its impact on the political track of the Syrian crisis.

The Russian movement tried to create an atmosphere conducive to a solution for Syria by changing the positions of some countries, especially those who insist on Assad’s leaving Syria as a prerequisite for the start of the transitional phase.

The Russian diplomatic activity is not targeting mainly the US administration, which seems quite congruent with the Russian proposal, but Turkey and Saudi Arabia, two countries adamantly against a future for Assad in Syria. 

One can notice the level of US-Russian understanding regarding the political settlement in Syria, especially after the American acknowledgment of the Russian military role in Syria.

The Russian military intervention in Syria will induce many countries to seek coordination with Moscow, especially the countries directly affected by the spread of terrorism in Syria.

The change in priorities and the need for security coordination at this stage may, logically, push many countries to change their previous positions.

The Vienna meeting might not constitute a formula for a quick solution in Syria, but it is an important step to redress the mistakes made in Geneva.

Many countries seem close to reaching a general common understanding on Syria; what is unclear, however, is the mechanism through which to apply the solution.

Washington and Moscow should put more pressure on the countries that put obstacles to the launching of a political process.

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