Trump’s Middle East vision: Revisited amid new realities

Upon the announcement of the US election results and Donald Trump’s sweeping victory representing the Republican Party, analysts quickly turned to speculating on what Trump’s new term could look like. Although many still view Trump through the lens of his previous term, it is essential to recognise the numerous shifts that have unfolded both regionally and internationally — particularly in the Middle East. 

A strategic view toward the Middle East today suggests that Trump may aim to resume the approaches he was pursuing. The Abraham Accords, for instance, will likely remain a foundation the administration wants to build upon. However, new variables around the concept of regional peace may also come into play. Saudi Arabia’s publicly expressed desires highlight the need to avoid bypassing the Palestinian issue as a prerequisite for broader Arab peace, coupled with the assurance of recognising a Palestinian state. Any direct agreement with Saudi Arabia might also extend beyond the framework of the Abraham Accords. 

Practically speaking, the evolving landscape in the region after October 7 presents a new reality, which implies that the contours of Trump’s previously proposed “Deal of the Century” may need adjustments to align with current circumstances. Trump’s approach to a “deal” differs fundamentally from a fixed peace plan, as the core elements of a plan are typically steadfast, whereas a deal remains fluid. This suggests that any future reintroduction of such an agreement might align with changes in the coming period, potentially before Trump’s administration enters the White House. 

We can also anticipate an Israeli attempt to create new facts on the ground during the transition phase, laying the groundwork for what’s to come. For instance, on the eve of the US elections, Netanyahu dismissed defense minister Gallant. While the dismissal itself wasn’t surprising, the timing and choice of replacement were. Israel Katz, who succeeded him, is seen as a strong political and executive choice. Since returning to the ministry of foreign affairs, Katz has taken a markedly assertive stance, issuing direct threats to various parties, positioning him as ready to take escalatory measures. Israel’s government may well seize the next few months to intensify pressure on multiple fronts, including Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and most importantly, the West Bank, aiming to establish new realities that reinforce a “fait accompli” policy by the time Trump’s administration assumes office. 

In Jordan, there has been much discussion around the potential regional consequences of Trump’s policies. Although these concerns are legitimate, it’s worth remembering that Jordan has been a historical ally of the United States rather than any specific administration. Confronting these concerns requires unconventional approaches, underscoring the need for Jordan to adapt to regional developments and play an active role in shaping solutions as a core contributor. 

This calls for several Jordanian steps, primarily embracing a realist policy framework that enables Jordan to take on an effective role in the region—a region whose crises have deepened as solutions have diminished. This makes Jordan’s role today more vital in the eyes of its allies. 

Regionally, with an potentially imminent phase of escalation and its ripple effects, Jordan must bolster its Arab position, particularly in its relations with Gulf states. While Jordan has established a model relationship with the UAE, it is also crucial to expand its strategic alliances, especially with Saudi Arabia—Jordan’s southern neighbor and a key actor in any US future vision for regional peace. Strengthening strategic ties with Saudi Arabia across security, political, and economic dimensions is imperative; the alignment of policies with Riyadh at this stage will undeniably be a cornerstone for Jordan amid the regional uncertainties surrounding crisis outcomes. 

Domestically, the priority for Jordan today remains maintaining internal stability and safeguarding national security, particularly in response to any potential repercussions from regional escalations along Jordan’s neighbouring fronts, including Syria, Iraq, and the West Bank, while taking proactive steps to prevent any attempts to externalize the crisis within Jordan’s borders.