Rising tensions before Trump’s return: Will Israel redraw the regional map?

In the final weeks of President Biden’s administration, the region is witnessing a flurry of diplomatic activity aimed at securing a framework for a ceasefire in Lebanon. Despite the intensity of these efforts and the international community's eagerness to end the conflict, no proposed solution has managed to satisfy the parties involved. Israel is pushing for a new framework that goes beyond UN Security Council Resolutions 1701 and 1559, granting itself the right to launch military operations in Lebanon at will, a proposition Hizbollah firmly rejects. 

While Israel appears to show some flexibility in negotiations, its escalating military actions suggest a lack of genuine interest in ending the war. The focus remains on southern Lebanon, with intensified attempts to penetrate deeper into the country and target areas such as the southern suburbs of Beirut, which Israel claims are housing Hezbollah facilities. 

At the same time, Israel has ramped up its operations in Syria, targeting sites affiliated with Hezbollah and Iran almost continuously. This indicates a deliberate strategy to isolate Lebanon from Syria and cut off any supply routes to Hizbollah, effectively severing the connection between the two countries. Israel's broader plan aims for multiple levels of isolation: restricting access to southern Lebanon, cutting off southern Beirut from the rest of the city, and ultimately isolating Lebanon from Syria.

The coming weeks are likely to see increased Israeli military reinforcements along the Lebanese border and intensified airstrikes in Lebanon and Syria. Additionally, the United States has recently joined the efforts to target Iran-aligned militias, which Washington views as threats to its interests in the region, further complicating the situation. 

This Israeli strategy coincides with a significant escalation in Iraq’s Al-Bukamal region, where local groups have begun targeting Iranian-backed militias. This development could potentially lead to more widespread confrontations along the Iraq-Iran border, extending Israel’s isolation strategy towards its ultimate goal of cutting the corridor between Tehran and Beirut. 

As the scope of these conflicts broadens to include more of Syria and potentially Iraq, the weeks leading up to President Trump’s anticipated return to the White House may prove critical for Israel. Prime Minister Netanyahu has hinted at a “gift” for Trump in the form of a Lebanon ceasefire, but any such gesture will likely come only after Israel has imposed new realities on the ground. Israel’s manoeuvres are expected to extend beyond active battlefronts like Lebanon and Gaza, where it aims to reshape the security dimensions of areas like the West Bank, which it views as a historical opportunity to establish lasting changes. 

This escalating regional turmoil also places Jordan in a precarious position. Surrounded by active conflict zones, Jordan must prepare for unforeseen consequences and heightened security risks. Protecting its borders will likely require significantly greater efforts than in previous years, as the risk of infiltration or direct attacks grows. Jordan could face attempts to destabilize its internal security as well, with various actors potentially seeking to shift their crises onto Jordanian soil. 

To navigate these challenges, Jordan must adopt a proactive strategy that addresses both external threats and their internal implications. Strengthening border security, fostering national reconciliation, and developing a unifying domestic narrative are crucial steps. A cohesive national effort will be essential to counter the ripple effects of the regional crisis and maintain stability in the face of mounting pressures.