Trump’s dangerous gamble

Donald Trump has gone rogue during the first days of his second residence in the White House. His executive decrees have upset US global relations and threaten US short, medium and long-term interests.

Trumps’ actions have unsettled this already tense region. His call 2.3 million Palestinians to be expelled from Gaza to Egypt and Jordan and for the US to take-over and develop the Strip as a tourist destination has been rejected by Gazans, Hamas which rules Gaza, the West Bank-based Palestinian Authority, Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and the Arab League. They have rejected any attempt to displace Palestinians from their land and called on Trump to support "a just and comprehensive peace in the Middle East based on the two-state solution." This is, of course, rejected by Israel which has colonised the West Bank and annexed East Jerusalem to pre-empt the emergence of a Palestinian state in this territory illegally occupied by Israel since 1967.

Trump's administration has backed Israel's January 30th ban on UNRWA, the UN agency caring for Palestinian refugees, which is meant to end its operations in East Jerusalem, the West Bank and Gaza. The UN Palestinian Rights Committee condemned the ban as a “direct violation of the General Assembly mandate [resolution 302 of December 1949] and the resolution [supporting UNRWA's mandate] recently adopted by the General Assembly by an overwhelming majority." The ban has also been condemned by Britain, Belgium, Ireland, Luxembourg, Malta, Norway, Slovenia and Spain. Belgium's foreign ministry said the Israeli action “sets a disastrous precedent that deeply undermines the multilateral system and the United Nations itself.”

As soon as he took office, Trump ordered a 90-day halt to US foreign and military aid except for Israel (of course) and Egypt. Secretary of State Marco Rubio subsequently issued a waver allowing for "life-saving humanitarian assistance” programmes.

The US gives Israel $3.8 billion a year in military aid and Israel has received an additional $17.9 billion during its genocidal and devastating war on Gaza, according to Brown University's Costs of War Report. The US has given Egypt $1.2 billion in military aid since the 1978 negotiations which led to the 1979 peace treaty with Israel.

His ignorant and destructive decree has frozen $95 million allocated mainly for Lebanon’s military as the country's troops deploy in the south to secure Israel's withdrawal under the fragile ceasefire between Hizbollah and Israel. This sum had previously been earmarked for Israel and Egypt, the Associated Press reported.

The non-governmental organisation managing Syria's Al-Hol camp has said it will have to end operations without US funding. Controlled by US-sponsored Syrian Democratic Forces. Al-Hol houses more than 40,000 wives and children of Daesh fighters.

The freeze could negatively impact Jordan ($770 million in 2023) and Yemen ($35.9 million) which receive economic aid through the $95 million provided by the US Agency for International Development. The lion's share of $14.4 billion has been allocated for Ukraine which is fighting the US-led Western war against Russia.

UN and other humanitarian agencies promptly responded to the freeze by ordering reductions in programmes to cut spending. UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres called for exemptions to “ensure the continued delivery of critical development and humanitarian activities for the most vulnerable communities around the world." Committed to his "America First" policy, Trump cares little for such communities.

Trump has paused for 30-day his imposition of 25 per cent tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico which have threatened to launch a North American trade war. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said he would impose tariffs on $106.6 billion worth of US imports to his country. These include beer, wine, fresh fruits and vegetables, processed food, seafood, vehicles, dairy, and spare parts, crude and refined petroleum.

Trump justified his tariffs on Mexico by accusing government of being in league with drug cartels which smuggle drugs into the US, an allegation hotly denied by President Claudia Sheinbaum. She charged the Trump administration of "slander" and told the US to cut the illegal southward flow of guns arming the cartels. She asked her trade minister to respond with 25 per cent tariffs and non-tariff measures. the main goods Mexico exports to the US are computers, cars and vehicles, spare parts and accessories.

Trump justified announced tariffs by saying, "This was done through the International Emergency Economic Powers Act because of the major threat of illegal aliens [crossing into the US] and deadly drugs killing our citizens, including [the addictive drug] fentanyl." 

During the pause, Trump can be expected to use tariff leverage to compel Canada and Mexico to capitulate to his demands on border security and other issues.

Beijing said it would lodge a complaint with the World Trade Organisation as Trump levied a blanket 10 per cent tariff on Chinese goods. Combined, China, Mexico and Canada accounted for more than 40 per cent of imports into the US last year.

He has also threatened tariffs on the European Union which he claims is taking advantage of the US. Trump stated, “They don’t take our cars, they don’t take our farm Products, they take almost nothing, everything from them.”

The Washington Post reported Trump's tariffs could cost every US household $1,200 which could be ignored by the wealth and absorbed by the middle class while stressing the working class and driving the poor into debt.

Trump has not forgotten his determination to transform Canada into the 51st US state despite overwhelming Canadian rejection and to buy or occupy Greenland which belongs to Denmark. In Panama on his first trip abroad Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the US could take action to reassert control over the waterway if the Panamanian government does not exclude Chinese presence around the canal which connects the Caribbean Sea with the Pacific Ocean. The US considers the operations of canal, built by the US between 1904-1914 but ceded to Panama in 1999, a national security issue.

Trump’s ill considered transactional pronouncements and policies have rattled close allies and created global concern over the stability and reliability of the US as the world’s hyperpower.