Ceasefire in peril: Netanyahu’s tactics and the fight for Gaza’s future

During last week's visit to the region, Trump administration envoy Steve Witkoff has been tasked with extending the first phase of the Gaza ceasefire which stalled last weekend when Israel refused to release 602 Palestinian prisoners in exchange for six Israeli prisoners freed by Hamas. Among the Palestinians 444 are non-combatants from Gaza who are "hostages" held by Israel. It has said the Palestinians could be released at the same time Hamas hands over four Israeli bodies, but Hamas cannot count on the word of Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu who has not ordered strict adherence to the terms of the January 19th ceasefire plan.

The ceasefire was put in jeopardy a week ago when Hamas delivered four bodies to Israel, two boys, Ariel and Kfir and their mother Shiri from the Bibas family and Oded Lifschitz. However, the woman's body was not of Shiri Bibas but a Palestinian woman. Netanyahu made a huge fuss, claiming that Hamas was violating the ceasefire. Israelis gathered in Tel Aviv's "Hostage Square" cried foul while the public was outraged because the three Bibas, who were captured along with husband and father Yarden Bibas by Hamas on October 7th, 2023. He survived and was told by Hamas that his wife and children had died in November 2023. Their terrible fate had become a cause celebre in Israel.

Hamas claimed unintentional misidentification and handed over Shiri Bibas’ body the next day. But the propaganda damage had been done. Netanyahu built on popular anger over the Bibas affaire by arguing that Hamas was also breaching the ceasefire by humiliating Israeli captives by making a spectacle of their release before their hand-over to the Red Cross. Unwilling to be made a propaganda tool, the Bibas family declared, "For 16 months, we sought certainty, and now that we have it, there is no comfort in it, but we hope for the beginning of a closure."

The ceasefire agreement laid down a firm timetable. During the 42 days of the first phase of the deal, there would be a complete ceasefire, Hamas would free 33 prisoners, Israel would release 1,900 prisoners, Israeli forces would withdraw from populated areas, displaced Palestinians would be permitted to return to home areas, and 600 aid lorries would enter Gaza daily. Israeli troops would pull out of the Netzarim corridor which bisects Gaza east to west, while Israel troops would remain in the border area and the Gaza-Egypt Philadelphi border zone. Sixteen days after the start of phase one, negotiations would begin on phase two which would involve final prisoner swaps and end hostilities. Stage three would see the return of dead Israeli prisoners and the launch of reconstruction.

Throughout phase one, Israel has violated the terms of the ceasefire. Israel has killed more than 100 and wounded at least 264 Palestinians since the ceasefire began. Israel obstructed and delayed Palestinians' return to their homes in the north. Israel has not allowed the entry into Gaza of 600 lorry loads of aid a day. Numbers have varied widely from day to day. Israel has also blocked tents, fabricated homes, earth moving equipment. Israel has refused to allow 150 wounded and ill Palestinians to leave Gaza daily for treatment abroad and has instead permitted around 50.

By contrast, Israel has mainly criticised Hamas for failing to deliver lists of captives to be released on the day before and for including women soldiers when female civilians were meant to be freed.

On February 10, after Hamas announced it would suspend captive releases until Israel abided by the ceasefire deal, Israel and its allies charged Hamas with wanting to blow up the ceasefire agreement. Hamas spokesman Abdul Latif al-Qanou retorted. "We are eager to implement it and oblige the occupation to fully implement it.”

Following talks in Cairo with Egyptian and Qatari mediators, Hamas said that it has received assurances that Israel will abide by the terms of the deal and that Doha and Cairo would follow up and ensure Israel did not create obstacles, particularly to clearance of prefabricated housing, tents, and machinery to clear rubble.

Hamas has, however, complained that stage two negotiations did not begin on time and Qatar and Egypt have not been able to force Israel to engage. Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu has told right-wing coalition partners he will pull out of the ceasefire and resume war ahead of the second phase. Netanyahu's stated war aim is to eradicate Hamas which Israeli and Palestinian commentators argue cannot be achieved by military means but by political action. Hamas itself has said repeatedly it would not seek a role on the governance of Gaza once the war ends and that it would accept a committee of technocrats who would restore security, administer and rebuild Gaza. However, the West Bank-based Fatah-dominated Palestinian Authority (PA) opposes the committee option and argues it should govern Gaza as installing a separate administration would divide the Palestinian territories and people. Israel rejects a PA role.

While the Israeli government is under pressure from hostage families and a majority of the public to get the hostages home and end the war, Hamas is also under pressure to improve conditions for the 2.3 million Gazans, 90 per cent of whom have been driven from their homes and are suffering varying degrees of deprivation due to Israeli siege, blockade, and restrictions.