Scenarios for the return of Syrian refugees in Jordan after the fall of the Assad regime

With the Syrian crisis continuing for a decade and its wide-ranging impact on the region, a question arises about the future of Syrian refugees in Jordan, especially in the event of the fall of the Assad regime. The issue of refugee return is one of the most complex issues, as it is linked to a set of political, economic, and security factors. Jordan, which has hosted more than 1.3 million Syrian refugees, has faced major challenges in terms of resources and infrastructure, which has made the return of refugees a priority at the national and regional levels.

The return of refugees to Syria depends on possible scenarios, ranging from immediate mass return to gradual organised return, all the way to partial voluntary return. Each scenario carries with it conditions for its achievement and opportunities for implementation that differ based on the degree of stability in Syria after the fall of the regime, and the ability of international and local parties to provide a safe and sustainable environment for returnees. These scenarios reflect the complexity of the political and humanitarian landscape in the region and shed light on the future of Syrian refugees considering the expected transformations.

Scenario 1: Immediate mass return

This scenario involves the immediate and mass return of Syrian refugees to their country following the fall of the Assad regime. This scenario will be driven by a state of optimism and popular Syrian consensus on building a new and stable state, as refugees rush to return to rebuild their lives and contribute to the reconstruction of their country. This scenario could also be driven by the desire of Jordanians to reduce the pressure resulting from refugees and restore social and economic balance.

 Requirements for verification:

• Rapid political and security stability in Syria after the fall of the regime, through the formation of a transitional government that enjoys popular acceptance and international support.

• Providing international and UN guarantees for the safety of returning refugees, including protection from any persecution or acts of revenge.

• Launching large-scale reconstruction programs in Syria to rehabilitate the infrastructure and provide basic services such as housing, education and health.

Chances of verification:

The chances of this scenario being realised are relatively weak. The fall of the Assad regime will not necessarily lead to immediate stability, as Syria may face a period of political unrest or conflicts between the various parties. The complexity of reconstruction and providing legal protection for returnees also requires intensive international coordination that may take years. Moreover, refugees’ fears of returning to an unstable or under-served environment may discourage this type of return.

Scenario 2: Organised gradual return

In this scenario, Syrian refugees return to their country in stages, in conjunction with the gradual restoration of stability and the launch of reconstruction plans. The return is organised through cooperation plans between the new Syrian government, Jordan, and the international community, to ensure that the process is safe and humane. This scenario could include the return of families in batches, starting from areas that regain stability.

Verification conditions:

• Existence of a clear and comprehensive plan for the return of refugees in cooperation between Jordan, the new Syrian government, and relevant international parties.

• Gradual securing of residential areas and basic services, including providing adequate housing and job opportunities for returnees.

• Commitment of the international community to finance reconstruction projects and provide humanitarian assistance to returnees.

Verification opportunities:

This scenario is largely realistic and is the most likely, given that it takes into account the time and financial challenges of rebuilding Syria. However, the chances of verification depend on the extent of the international community’s commitment to supporting Syria financially and politically, as well as the ability of the new Syrian government to provide serious guarantees to returnees. Bureaucratic challenges and lack of resources may also slow down the return process, making it take years to complete.

Scenario 3: Partial voluntary return

This scenario relies on a portion of Syrian refugees returning voluntarily and on their own to relatively stable areas in Syria, while others choose to remain in Jordan for reasons related to security or lack of resources. This return may be driven by relative improvements in some areas, especially those that were not severely damaged during the conflict.

Validation Conditions:

• Relative stability in some areas of Syria, making it a suitable environment for return, even if only partially.

• The intensity of the armed conflict in Syria is reduced, giving refugees a sense of security sufficient to return.

• Limited support from the international community for returnees, such as humanitarian aid and simple rehabilitation of infrastructure.

Validation Prospects:

The chances of this scenario being realized are relatively high compared to other scenarios, as it does not rely on achieving comprehensive stability or extensive reconstruction. This is because many refugees have strong ties to specific areas in Syria, and may prefer to return despite the lack of full guarantees. However, partial return means that a large number of refugees will remain in Jordan for long periods, imposing continued economic and social burdens on the Kingdom.

Analysis of the above scenarios

Each scenario presents a different path for the return of Syrian refugees to their country, but political, economic and security challenges make a gradual and partial return the most realistic. The first scenario faces significant obstacles due to the complexity of the situation in Syria after the fall of the regime, while the second scenario requires significant international commitment and a long time to implement. The third scenario seems the most likely to be achieved in the near term, but it will not significantly alleviate the pressures on Jordan.

Therefore, the safe return of refugees requires coordinated efforts between Jordan, Syria and the international community, with comprehensive plans that balance humanitarian, economic and political interests. The realization of any of the scenarios depends largely on the nature of the transitional phase in Syria and the commitment of international parties to support this transition.

Hasan Al Dajah is professor of Strategic Studies at Al Hussein Bin Talal University