Trump's Middle East policy: Between continuity and change

The foreign policy directions of US President-elect Donald Trump towards the Middle East are of wide international interest, given the complexities of the political, economic and security situations in the region. During his previous presidency, Trump's policy towards the Middle East was characterised by adopting an unconventional approach and controversial decisions in several files, most notably the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, relations with Iran, and Arab-Israeli normalisation. 

These issues remain the focus of attention of the countries of the region, and observers wonder whether Trump will adopt the same policy he previously pursued or will seek to modify it according to new data and developments.

One of the most prominent features of Trump's policy towards the Middle East was his absolute support for Israel, as he made decisive decisions that strengthened its position, including moving the US embassy to Jerusalem in 2018 and recognising Jerusalem as the capital of Israel. Trump also supported the “Deal of the Century” plan, which aimed to provide a new framework for resolving the conflict, but it was met with widespread Palestinian rejection, as it was considered to marginalise Palestinian rights. 

Israel is the United States’ largest strategic ally in the region, and Trump’s policy of strong support for Israel is likely to continue, especially considering the close relations that bind him to its leaders, as Trump has repeatedly stressed his keenness to protect “Israel’s security and stability.” 

If Trump decides to continue his previous policies, he will continue to support normalisation projects between Israel and Arab countries, like what happened during his first term in office, when the Abraham Accords were signed between Israel and a number of Arab countries such as the UAE and Bahrain. Trump may seek to strengthen these agreements and expand the circle of Arab countries that have normalised relations, which will receive support from Israel, but will likely face criticism from Palestinian parties and some countries that reject normalisation without finding a just solution to the Palestinian issue.

One of the most controversial policies in the region was the “maximum pressure” policy that the previous Trump administration followed towards Iran. Trump withdrew from the 2015 Iranian nuclear deal and reimposed tough economic sanctions on it, with the aim of limiting its regional influence and weakening its economy. 

This policy was part of Trump’s vision to reduce the “Iranian threat,” as he considered that the nuclear deal was not enough to limit Iran’s military ambitions and interference in the affairs of regional countries. If Trump continues his hardline policy towards Iran, he is expected to take new steps to tighten economic sanctions and may direct additional pressure on regional countries to follow suit in isolating Tehran.

However, continuing this approach may lead to an escalation of regional tensions, especially in light of the possibility of Iran increasing its nuclear activities or expanding its military influence in countries such as Syria, Iraq and Lebanon, which may threaten security and stability in the region. One of the points that may enjoy continuity in Trump’s policy is the fight against terrorism and extremist groups, especially Daesh. In his previous term, Trump paid great attention to eliminating extremist organizations, as his presidency witnessed an intensification of military efforts to undermine the activities of these groups, especially in Syria and Iraq. Accordingly, this policy is expected to continue, with support provided to US allies to achieve this goal.

Trump may adopt a policy based on reducing the direct US presence, and focusing on supporting and empowering regional allies to confront these threats. He previously announced his desire to “end endless wars” in the Middle East, indicating that he will work to reduce direct US involvement in military operations while maintaining counterterrorism operations.

The Gulf states are among the most important US allies in the region, and Trump is expected to continue seeking to strengthen economic and security relations with these countries. During his previous presidential term, Trump sought to sign economic and military deals with the Gulf states, most notably major arms deal with Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and he may seek to expand these economic and trade relations by supporting new investments.

Trump is likely to encourage the Gulf states to play a greater role in addressing regional challenges, including confronting Iran and countering terrorism. He may also encourage them to strengthen military cooperation with the United States to protect the region, while maintaining policies consistent with the “America First” vision that focuses on achieving economic gains for the United States.

Human rights and democracy were not among the issues that received much attention during Trump’s first term, as his policy focused more on economic and strategic interests. It seems that, if he continues with this approach, he will continue to deal with human rights issues in the Middle East in a pragmatic manner based on bilateral interests, without showing a strong commitment to supporting democratic transitions or interfering in the internal affairs of countries.

Finally: Continuity and change in Trump’s Middle East policy It is expected that President-elect Donald Trump’s policy towards the Middle East will be characterised by a degree of continuity in many aspects, as he will continue to support Israel and strengthen relations with the Gulf states, while maintaining a maximum pressure policy towards Iran. 

However, given the changes that the region has witnessed in the past period, Trump is likely to face new challenges that require him to modify some policies to be in line with regional and international reality. What is certain is that Trump’s vision for the Middle East is based on the “America First” policy, which means that he will continue to view the region from the perspective of achieving direct American interests, whether economic or security, without getting involved in issues that may conflict with his pragmatic vision of foreign relations.

Hasan Dajah is professor of strategic studies at Al-Hussein Bin Talal University