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BERLIN — There’s no sign of the usual lunch crowd at Berlin’s Zen Kitchen, with just a few scattered diners dotting its terrace despite the sunny weather.

Two months after Germany lifted its lockdowns, the small Asian restaurant, like so many others, is struggling to attract customers as coronavirus fears linger.

“We’ve only seen 20 to 30 per cent of our clientele back since the reopening,” said Zen’s owner Vu, whose eatery is located near Berlin’s busy Unter den Linden avenue.

Having weathered the pandemic better than many of its neighbours so far, Germany was among the first countries to reopen its economy and its progress is being closely watched across the continent.

Restaurants, bars and hotels have adapted to the new normal with face masks, physical distancing and by asking customers to share contact information so they can be alerted to any fresh outbreak.

But despite the efforts, Germany’s hospitality sector has struggled to pick up speed, highlighting the difficulties facing Europe’s top economy as it confronts the steepest recession since World War II.

Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government, which has pledged over a trillion euros in stimulus spending to cushion the coronavirus blow, is hoping for an economic rebound in the second half of 2020.

“I’m certain that we can halt the downturn in our economy after the summer break and that the German economy will start to grow again by October at the latest,” Economy Minister Peter Altmaier told the Bild am Sonntag daily.

The unemployment level is expected to keep inching up “before slowly decreasing from November”, he added.

‘Afraid to sit inside’ 

But for now the glass remains half full for many businesses.

“The situation is dramatic,” the German Hotel and Restaurant Association (DEHOGA) summarised, noting that restaurant owners expect June revenues on average to be 60 per cent lower than last year.

“Sure, customers are coming back but very, very slowly,” said Sahin Ciftci, the owner of Zeus pizzeria in Berlin’s trendy Friedrichshain district.

“People are still afraid to come and sit inside,” he sighed, surveying his empty dining room at midday.

The lack of punters combined with the extra expenses caused by the new hygiene regulations have left the sector fearing a record wave of bankruptcies.

“Without more state support, nearly 70,000 businesses will be on the brink of ruin,” according to DEHOGA.

Last month, Merkel’s government launched a scheme to help hard-hit smaller companies like restaurants cover their fixed costs, offering up to 150,000 euros ($169,000) over a three-month period.

Berlin also hopes a six-month reduction in sales tax from July will encourage Germans to hit the high street and open their wallets again.

But DEHOGA President Guido Zoellick told AFP more targeted help was needed that is “available to all restaurants”.

‘Corona cookies’ 

Some restaurateurs are banking on the return of foreign tourists to keep them afloat over the summer holidays.

Germany recently reopened its borders to most EU members as well as a slew of other countries, with more to follow depending on how the pandemic evolves.

Berlin’s five-star Adlon hotel, a stone’s throw from the iconic Brandenburg Gate, is already creaking back to life with guests thronging its lavish entrance hall.

“The recovery has started. It’s slow but it’s there,” said the hotel’s Director of Sales and Marketing Sebastian Riewe.

In Berlin’s historic Nicholas quarter, where cobbled streets are normally packed with shoppers and sightseers, cafe owner Sylke Oehler remains upbeat.

“The tourists will come back soon for sure,” she told AFP sitting outside her health food cafe Zur Alten Zicke.

Until then, the forty-something entrepreneur is working hard to drum up local custom through advertising and by switching up the menu — even creating vegan, gluten-free “corona cookies”.

“I call it healthy comfort food,” she said. “It’s won me some new customers.”

PARIS — Although crude prices have rebounded from coronavirus crisis lows, oil executives and experts are starting to ask if the industry has crossed the Rubicon of peak demand.

The plunge in the price of crude oil during the first wave of coronavirus lockdowns — futures prices briefly turned negative — was due to the drop in global demand as planes were parked on tarmacs and cars in garages.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecast that average daily oil demand will drop by eight million barrels per day this year, a decline of around eight per cent from last year.

While the agency expects an unprecedented rebound of 5.7 million barrels per day next year, it still forecasts overall demand will be lower than in 2019 owing to ongoing uncertainty in the airline sector.

Some are questioning whether demand will ever get back to 2019 levels.

"I don't think we know how this is going to play out. I certainly don't know," BP's new chief executive Bernard Looney said in May.

The COVID-19 pandemic was in full swing then with most planes grounded and white-collar workers giving up the commute to work from home.

"Could it be peak oil? Possibly. I would not write that off," Looney told The Financial Times.

Summited? 

The concept of peak oil has long generated speculation. 

Mostly, it has been focused on peak production, with experts forecasting that prices would reach astronomical levels as recoverable oil in the ground runs out.

But in recent months, the concept of peak demand has come into vogue, with the coronavirus landing an uppercut into fuel demand for the transportation sector followed by a knock-out punch from the transition to cleaner fuels.

Michael Bradshaw, professor at Warwick Business School, said environmental groups are already lobbying to prevent the Paris agreements becoming another casualty of the pandemic, stressing the need for a Green New Deal for the recovery.

"If they are successful, demand for oil might never return to the peak we saw prior to COVID-19," he said in comments to journalists.

The transport sector may never fully recover, Bradshaw posited.

"After the pandemic, we might have a different attitude to international air travel or physically going into work," he said.

 'Science fiction' 

Other experts say we haven't reached the tipping point yet, and might not for a while.

"Many people have said, including some CEOs of some major companies, with the lifestyle changes now to teleworking and others we may well see oil demand has peaked, and oil demand will go down," IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said recently.

"I don't agree with that. Teleconferencing alone will not help us to reach our energy and climate goals, they can only make a small dent," Firol added while unveiling a recent IEA report.

Moez Ajmi at consulting and auditing firm E&Y dismissed as "science fiction" the idea that a definitive drop in oil demand could suddenly emerge.

He expects a slow recovery in demand even if the coronavirus leaves the global economy weakened.

That weakness would also likely slow adoption of greener fuels.

"It will take time for fossil fuels, which today still account for some 80 per cent of primary global consumption to face real competition" from rival energy sources, he said.

Meanwhile, the oil industry could face financing challenges.

Bronwen Tucker, an analyst at Oil Change International, says the industry is now under pressure from investors.

After "a pretty big wave of restrictions on coal and some restrictions on oil and gas, the risks to oil and gas investment right now feel a lot more salient", she said.

The industry is already writing down the value of assets to face up to the new market reality of lower demand and prices.

Royal Dutch Shell said this past week that it will take a $22 billion charge as it re-evaluates the value of its business in light of the coronavirus.

Last month, rival BP reduced the worth of its assets by $17.5 billion.

"This process has further to run, and we expect further large impairments to occur across the sector," said Angus Rodger of specialist energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie.

FRANKFURT AM MAIN — German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz said on Sunday he wanted to overhaul the country’s finance watchdog Bafin and give it more powers after a massive fraud scandal involving digital payments firm Wirecard.

Wirecard filed for bankruptcy late last month after admitting that 1.9 billion euros ($2.1 billion) was missing from its accounts, a case that has triggered criticism of the auditors and regulators meant to be overseeing the firm.

Scholz told the Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung newspaper he wanted to ditch the current two-stage procedure whereby Bafin is only called in when red flags are raised in a first vetting of accounts by a private monitoring body.

“We need far-reaching reforms,” Scholz said, adding that Bafin needed to step in earlier and have the right to launch “special audits on a large scale”.

“I want to give Bafin more control rights over financial reports, regardless of whether the company has a banking division,” he went on.

“If we decide that Bafin needs more money, more employees and more competencies, I will work to ensure that happens.” 

Bafin chief Felix Hufeld has admitted that his watchdog “had not been effective enough” at preventing the Wirecard disaster.

But auditing firm EY has also come under scrutiny for signing off on Wirecard’s accounts for years before finally warning last month of an “elaborate and sophisticated fraud” at the payments provider.

The scandal has raised questions about whether auditing firms should be rotated more frequently, Scholz said, and whether it makes sense for them to advise and monitor a company at the same time.

German shareholders’ association SdK, which has launched legal action against two EY auditors and one former employee over Wirecard, welcomed Scholz’s proposals.

Bafin needs to be “completely rebuilt”, SdK chief Daniel Bauer told the Handelsblatt financial daily.

“It’s not enough to increase the number of employees,” he warned. “They have to be the right employees who actually understand the subject matter.”

LONDON — Ineos, the chemicals giant owned by British billionaire Jim Ratcliffe, is driving through plans to build a 4x4 vehicle despite a car sector stalled by the coronavirus pandemic.

“The task of building a brand and making known to everybody what the proposition is, is quite ambitious,” said Ineos Automotive CEO Dirk Heilmann, as more detailed plans regarding the project, including on its design, were revealed.

Ineos Grenadier, described by the company as “a stripped back, utilitarian, hard-working 4x4”, will enter production in late 2021 at a new factory in Wales, creating an initial 200 jobs, a statement said on Wednesday.

“Deliveries will start first in the UK and Europe and in other global markets” thereafter, it added amid a project investment totalling £1.0 billion ($1.2 billion, 1.08 billion euros).

It comes at a time when the auto sector worldwide has seen sales and production crushed by COVID-19 lockdowns shutting factories and showrooms, although many have since reopened.

“It is a very difficult time for the automotive industry, though it is worth bearing in mind that these [car launches] are relatively enduring investments,” said Cardiff University Professor Peter Wells, an expert on the global automative industry.

“In some respects starting production now is actually using the current situation to the advantage of the business,” he told AFP. 

“It will give the business time to smooth out any production problems or any quality concerns before increasing the [assembly] line speed to full output,” Wells added.

Car enthusiast Ratcliffe identified a gap in the market for such a vehicle after the final Land Rover Defender was produced in 2016. 

Ineos has meanwhile teamed up with leading car groups, including BMW.

“Combining rugged British spirit with German engineering rigour, the Grenadier will be a truly uncompromising 4x4, built from the ground up,” Ineos said Wednesday.

It predicted that the vehicle would appeal to landowners, forestry workers, explorers and ski operators.

Wait for electric 

“In some regards the car is a rather dated concept, that is not attuned to the emergent world of low-carbon automobility,” said Wells.

“However, it is also a niche product, and in that sense builds on a noted aspect of the UK automotive industry.”

Heilmann said Ineos was not yet in a position to have a vehicle that did not run on petrol or diesel.

“It’s not the time to introduce this,” he told reporters at a briefing ahead of Wednesday’s formal update, noting there was not a battery allowing the vehicle to be driven far enough.

Ratcliffe’s move into car manufacturing follows a failed attempt by British inventor James Dyson, who last year pulled the plug on plans to build an electric car, citing an inability to make it a commercial success.

LONDON — Energy giant Royal Dutch Shell will take a vast charge of up to $22 billion (19.6 billion euros) due to chronic fallout from coronavirus and collapsing oil prices, it announced on Tuesday.

The Anglo-Dutch company said in a statement that it will face a charge of between $15 billion and $22 billion in the second quarter, after crude futures had suffered a spectacular crash on COVID-19 fallout, the Saudi-Russia price war and oversupply.

Thus, the charge will likely be larger than the $15.8 billion net profit the firm earned last year.

Tuesday's announcement comes after rival BP revealed earlier this month that it was taking a hit of between $13 billion and $17.5 billion in the same period as a result of sustained coronavirus fallout that ravaged the world's appetite for oil.

"Given the impact of COVID-19 and the ongoing challenging commodity price environment, Shell continues to adapt to ensure the business remains resilient," Shell said in the statement.

It added: "In light of this, Shell is announcing today a revised long-term commodity prices and margin outlook, which is expected to result in non-cash impairments in the second-quarter results."

The move also reflected a planned reshaping of refining activities as it seeks to move towards becoming carbon neutral by 2050.

Shell also predicted that upstream crude production was expected to stand at between 2.3 and 2.4 million barrels of oil equivalent in the second quarter.

"Although this production range is higher compared with the outlook previously provided, it has had a limited impact on earnings in the current macro environment," the group cautioned.

It forecast that benchmark London North Sea Brent crude prices would stand at an average of just $35 per barrel in 2020, before recovering somewhat to reach $40 in 2021, $50 by 2022 and $60 by 2023.

Virus turmoil may continue 

In response to the killer disease, companies worldwide closed their doors and airlines grounded planes towards the end of the first quarter.

Coronavirus slammed the brakes on global economic activity and shattered oil-intensive industries.

The outbreak also sent oil prices plunging off a cliff — and even caused them briefly to turn negative.

Prices have since rebounded sharply on an easing global crude supply glut and as governments relax lockdowns and businesses slowly reopen.

Yet, some analysts warn that the market remains vulnerable to a second wave of coronavirus infections and lockdowns.

BP, which is axing around 10,000 jobs or 15 per cent of its global workforce in response to virus turmoil, decided Monday to sell its petrochemical business to privately-owned rival Ineos for $5 billion to bolster its finances.

Shell has yet to take such drastic action, but announced in March that it will cut operating costs by $3-4 billion over 12 months, and reduce its annual spending by one-fifth to $20 billion.

In April, it cut its dividend for the first time since the 1940s after sinking into loss in the first quarter of this year. The loss of $24 million compared to a profit after tax of $6 billion in the same period a year earlier.

BEIRUT — Lebanese banks sought on Monday to encourage depositors to withdraw trapped dollar savings in Lebanese pounds by increasing their exchange rate, as the national currency continued its tumble on the black market.

Banks have gradually restricted dollar transfers abroad and withdrawals since last year, effectively trapping dollar savings in accounts unless their owners want to convert them into Lebanese pounds. 

Several banks said on Monday they had increased their buying rate from 3,000 to 3,850 pounds to the greenback.

The move comes as talks stall between Lebanon and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to lift the country out of its worst economic crisis since the 1975-1990 civil war.

The Lebanese currency officially remains pegged at around 1,507 pounds to the dollar, but the black market rate on Monday morning reached a new record of 8,000, according to several specialised websites.

The cap on dollar withdrawals has led those in need of the foreign currency to resort to changers on the black market instead, sending the exchange rate there soaring.

The authorities have struggled to stem the collapse, with the central bank on Friday launching an online platform in an apparent move to oversee money changing operations at an official rate.

Economist Jad Chaaban said banks adopting the new exchange rate on Monday was part of a "strategy of converting more deposits to the Lebanese pound" as foreign currency becomes scarce, he said.

"The central bank is just printing currency to cover for any shortages in foreign currency, which is a huge mistake" as it will simply lead to more inflation, he said.

The IMF's Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva on Friday said talks with Lebanon had been "difficult".

"It has been really difficult and the core of the issue has been whether there can be unity of purpose in the country that can then carry forward a set of very tough, but necessary measures," she said.

"We do not yet have reason to say there is a breakthrough."

The director general of the finance ministry, Alain Bifani, resigned on Monday, the official National News Agency said, following two decades in the position that saw him take part in the IMF talks.

The news came after adviser to the ministry in talks with the IMF, Henri Chaoul, also stepped down earlier this month over "no genuine will to implement either reforms or a restructuring of the banking sector, including the central bank".

Lebanon, which has a sovereign debt equivalent to 170 per cent of its GDP, defaulted on its debt in March for the first time in its history.

The economic crunch has sparked unprecedented protests since October and is plunging entire segments of the population into poverty.

TOKYO — With growing pressure to keep China's Huawei out of 5G network development, it could be time for firms like Japan's NEC and South Korea's Samsung to shine.

Washington has pushed allies to bar Huawei, a Chinese telecom giant, from building next-generation 5G mobile networks, claiming its equipment can be used to spy for Beijing. 

Huawei denies the charges, but US pressure has prompted an about-turn in Britain.

The government had already pledged to cut the firm out of the most sensitive "core" elements of 5G that access personal data, and is now reportedly pushing for plans to end Huawei's involvement in Britain's 5G infrastructure by 2023.

But excluding Huawei is not without challenges, because there are currently only two alternatives in Europe for 5G equipment such as antennas and relay masts: Finland's Nokia and Sweden's Ericsson.

Britain has encouraged Washington to form a club of 10 democratic countries that could develop its own 5G technology, but there has been little movement, so far.

"The vast majority of the commercial networks sold in the world come from the big three," said Sylvain Chevallier, in charge of telecoms at BearingPoint consultancy, referring to Huawei, Nokia and Ericsson.

"But a world of three is not good for operators, and if it goes down to two it will be worse still," he told AFP.

 Teaming up 

That leaves a tempting potential opening for telecoms firms like Samsung and NEC. But building a successful 5G network is no simple task.

That is a lesson Samsung has already learned. Despite being a major player in 3G, it found itself unable to compete with the big three on 4G and struggled to win commercial contracts.

"This has been a challenge for Samsung," said Daryl Schoolar, a mobile technology specialist at consulting group Omdia.

In building its 5G network, Samsung has so far focused on North America and parts of the Asia-Pacific region.

"So while operators may feel uncertain about Samsung Networks, they are much further along in the process of being a global presence than NEC," Schoolar added.

NEC does have some advantages, including a partnership in Japan with mobile operator Rakuten.

The firms have already cooperated on a 4G network and are now jointly developing a 5G system.

The Japanese firm is also a leader on undersea cables, fibre optic networks and — thanks to its affiliate Netcracker — logistics management software.

"Netcracker has a strong presence with operators in Europe, which could be a real entry point for NEC," said Stephane Teral, chief telecoms analyst at LightCounting, a market research firm.

 'A major challenge' 

NEC is tightlipped about its contracts for mobile networks, saying only that it is holding feasibility demonstrations for "a number of customers and we are engaged in commercial discussions with others".

Britain's government has reportedly asked both NEC and Samsung to take part in demonstrations as it looks to diversify its 5G options.

On Thursday, NEC announced a tie-up with Japanese operator NTT intended in part to speed up the development of a 5G network.

Samsung and NEC joined forces two years ago and have launched a joint marketing team to offer 5G products to European and Asian markets.

Still, the path ahead will be tough, said Schoolar. 

"I think it's a major challenge for NEC. It requires more than radios, it requires investing in people who can do system integration, sales, customer support, network design and engineering," he said.

"Plus NEC will need to build operator trust that they will be there to support them in five to 10 years as those 5G networks evolve."

Washington has backed the use of non-proprietary technology like Open RAN in 5G development, hoping it will provide an entry point for US firms.

Such a move would open up opportunities for NEC, allowing them to "create an economic model that would shake up traditional equipment manufacturers", said Chevallier.

NEW YORK — Wall Street stocks suffered their second rout in three sessions on Friday as surging coronavirus cases prompted large US states to impose new public health restrictions, threatening the economy's recovery from widespread business shutdowns.

Major US indices fell around 2.5 per cent or more to finish the week in the red.

Meanwhile, Tokyo's benchmark Nikkei index closed up 1 per cent on Friday as investors took heart from US earlier rallies despite the spike in coronavirus cases.

The Nikkei 225 rose 1.13 per cent, or 252.29 points, to close at 22,512.08. Over the week, it edged up 0.15 per cent.

The broader Topix index was up 0.99 percent, or 15.52 points, at 1,577.37, but lost 0.34 per cent from a week before.

"The Japanese market is advancing against the backdrop of rallies in US shares," said Okasan Online Securities, predicting that investors would be unlikely to gamble too heavily ahead of the weekend.

Analysts were balancing the negative impact of a potential second coronavirus wave with the floods of money pumped into the market by financial authorities.

"Investors are concerned about an increase in infections globally, but sentiment remained positive as major economies continued making efforts to reopen their economies," Toshikazu Horiuchi, a broker at IwaiCosmo Securities, told AFP.

Market watchers were shifting their focus on key economic indicators to be released in the US soon, Horiuchi added.

Earlier, European bourses finished mostly lower, while oil prices fell on worries about weakening demand.

Investor confidence in a US economic recovery is "being stymied by lingering COVID-19 concerns as new cases persist", said analysts at the Charles Schwab brokerage.

Texas and Florida, two of the most-populous states in the country and other southern and western states, including Arizona and Georgia, have seen big jumps in cases.

"We are facing a serious problem in certain areas," top infectious disease expert Anthony Fauci said on Friday as the Trump administration's coronavirus task force held its first public briefing in two months.

Stocks have been volatile this week as investors try to assess the implications of the current phase of the coronavirus crisis and whether it will be as devastating to the economy as the shutdowns earlier this year.

"A big portion of the rally that equities enjoyed between late March and early June was down to the chatter that lockdown restrictions will be eased, and then they were eased, so now there are fears the process could be reversed," said CMC Markets UK analyst David Madden. 

But there were other significant factors in Friday's rout on Wall Street, which pushed all three major indices into the red for the week. 

Large banks, including Bank of America and Goldman Sachs fell more than six per cent after the Federal Reserve late Thursday ordered the industry to suspend buybacks and limit dividend payments amid uncertainty over the coronavirus.

Facebook dove 8.3 per cent as it faced a widening boycott from major advertisers due to criticism it has not done enough to crack down on hate speech and incitements to violence.

After Unilever joined Verizon among the large companies suspending spending on the platform, Chief Executive Mark Zuckerberg said Facebook would ban a "wider category of hateful content".

DUBAI — Saudi Arabia's gross domestic product (GDP) will shrink by 6.8 per cent this year, its worst performance since the 1980s oil glut, as low crude prices and coronavirus batter Middle East economies, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Wednesday.

The new projection for the Saudi economy, the largest in the region, is a massive 4.5 percentage points lower than what the International Monetary Fund had projected just two months ago, reflecting a fast deterioration in the world's top crude exporter.

Growth in the Middle East and Central Asia region is expected to contract by 4.7 per cent this year, 1.9 percentage points below the previous projection in April, the global lender said in its World Economic Outlook update.

The IMF kept its oil price projections almost unchanged from April at around $36 a barrel.

"Oil futures curves indicate that prices are expected to increase thereafter toward $46, still about 25 per cent below the 2019 average," which was around $64 a barrel, it said. 

Many of the countries in the region, which includes all Arab countries, Iran and Central Asian republics, heavily rely on oil income.

Several economic forecasts have predicted that the Middle East and North African countries could lose hundreds of billions of dollars in income as oil prices sag amid a global slowdown caused by the pandemic.

The IMF said in an April report that the COVID-19 outbreak and the plunge in oil prices were causing significant economic turmoil in the region and that the impact could be long lasting.

Oil prices crashed to a two-decade low below $20 a barrel in May due to a sharp decline in global demand as a result of the coronavirus lockdown.

Crude prices have partially recovered to just over $40 a barrel after the OPEC+ producers agreed to historic cuts of 9.7 million bpd, and Riyadh and its Gulf partners pledged an additional 1.2 million bpd reduction for June. 

In the latest update, the IMF forecast Iran's economy, the second largest in the region, to shrink by 6.0 per cent, unchanged from April, mired in the red for the third year in a row. Iran has been battling stifling sanctions imposed by the United States.

The only bright spot was Egypt, which the IMF said will grow by 2.0 per cent this year, but still way down from 5.6 per cent achieved in 2019.

Fiscal deficits and public debt levels in the region will substantially rise this year and in 2021, the IMF said.

Saudi's budget deficit will more than double from last year to hit 11.4 per cent of gross domestic product, but is expected to moderate to 5.6 per cent of GDP in 2021, it said.

Saudi Arabia has already resorted to austerity measures, cutting spending, scrapping a cost of living allowance to civil servants, and tripling its value added tax to 15 per cent from July.