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Who's betting against the pound? FX markets enter UK political fray

Johnson's supporters could be pressing him for no-deal Brexit to benefit their currency market positions — McDonnell

By - Oct 06,2019 - Last updated at Oct 06,2019

In this photo, taken on December 14, 2017, British one pound sterling coins and one Euro coins are arranged in front of a British ten pound sterling note for a photograph in London (AFP file photo)

LONDON — Britain's opposition parties are hitting out at currency speculators betting against the pound while also bankrolling the leadership campaign of pro-Brexit Prime Minister Boris Johnson.

However, allegations of conflicts of interest are difficult to prove in the highly globalised and largely unregulated foreign exchange markets.
John McDonnell, the main opposition Labour Party's finance spokesman, warned that Johnson's supporters could be pressing the prime minister for a no-deal Brexit in order to benefit their currency market positions.

He told MPs on Monday that some traders were "gambling on the country's failure" and accused Johnson's ruling Conservatives of receiving hundreds of thousands of pounds "from individuals who back a no-deal Brexit, many involved in hedge funds".

Backed by the Liberal Democrats, McDonnell has demanded an inquiry and wrote to Cabinet Secretary Mark Sedwill, Britain's top civil servant, to outline his concerns.

Former finance minister Philip Hammond, a staunch opponent of Britain leaving the European Union without a divorce agreement, has also expressed his concerns over potential currency trades related to no deal.

The government has dismissed the concerns as "myths" and refused to open an investigation or comment on individual Tory donors.

"We do not accept there is any prospect of a conflict of interest," Simon Clarke, a finance minister, told the house of commons in response to McDonnell.

Among those implicated in the allegations is Crispin Odey, a wealthy hedge fund manager who is a leading backer of a no-deal Brexit and Johnson.

He donated £10,000 to Johnson's Conservative leadership campaign and has given almost £900,000 to pro-Brexit campaigns in the past, according to British media reports.

Odey told The Guardian on Monday that claims his support was motivated by an opportunity to make millions from short-selling British companies and the pound was "absolute rubbish".

"We are trading currencies all the time, long and short," he said.

 

Short-selling 

 

The pound has lost around 15 per cent of its value since the Brexit vote more than three years ago. 

At the beginning of September, it fell back to levels not seen since 1985, aside from its dramatic post-referendum drop in 2016.

The accusations in Westminster centre on "short-selling" of the currency.

This sees traders borrow and sell assets in the hope of then buying them back at a lower price and pocketing the difference between the old price and the new one.

Foreign exchange markets have always been highly speculative: US billionaire George Soros made his fortune by betting against the pound in the early 1990s, and has recently funded efforts to bring about another referendum on Britain's EU membership.

Anti-EU populist Nigel Farage, a former commodities trader, was accused of using the 2016 referendum to fuel speculation on the pound —  something he has denied.

Before the official announcement of the results, he sent the pound spiking by conceding the likely defeat of his pro-Brexit camp.

Hours later, the "Leave" side's victory sent the British currency crashing.

 

'A different time' 

 

However, experts say the sheer weight of the foreign exchange market —  where more than $5 trillion is traded daily —  makes it hard for individuals to have a big impact.

"It's going to be super difficult to move the market," Yuval Millo, an accounting professor at Warwick Business School, told AFP.

Marcin Kacperczyk, at Imperial College London, agreed, noting it was "a different time" when Soros was able to speculate so successfully on the pound in the 1990s.

Millo said critics of currency speculators could struggle to prove any conflicts of interest.

"It is using my influence because I'm a donor to improve my market position," he said of their likely motives.

The myriad influences on modern foreign exchange mean it is also hard to pinpoint one event or action as the sole cause of currency fluctuations.

Meanwhile, Odey and other speculators are not the only ones betting against the pound in the event of a no-deal Brexit.

Craig Erlam, an analyst at Oanda, is among those predicting an additional 20 per cent drop in the currency's value in such a scenario.

Short positions are also being taken in other trading areas, such as shares in British companies, according to Millo.

Jordan’s IPP3 Power Project CSR Activities

By - Oct 06,2019 - Last updated at Oct 06,2019

AMMAN — Jordan’s IPP3, located on a green field site at Al Manakher, 30km from the Jordanian, is the world’s biggest tri-fuel power plant, with an installed capacity of 573MW. As part of its social responsibility to support the surrounding Jordanian community, The CSR activities have been conducted by the owner of the plant AAEPC(Amman Asia Electric Power Company) and by O&M operator of KEPCO KPS in one of the disabled schools based in Sahab (Al Manar Center for Intellectual Development) exclusively dedicated to the Jordanian's society.

The CSR activities were conducted in Amman - Sahab on September 26 and concentrated on providing physiotherapy materials, stationery, school bags, desks and tables, 

In the course of CSR activities, IPP3 also carried out many maintenance works such as painting the classrooms, fixing the air conditioners and fixing the water system in the school.

IPP3 CSR activities included paint the classrooms as part of the main activities, dancing with students and The IPP3 crew shared a lunch with all students in order to bring joy to the hearts of students and to show that they are not less than any natural person in this universe in order to explore their potentials and discover their self-esteem.

At the end of the event, AAEPC CEO and KEPCO KPS Plant Manager have emphasized their continued support to the center and the Jordanian community and they will do what it takes to support this school to be sufficiently equipped to provide the necessary services to the students.

 

Dubai seeks investments to bolster its economy

Its economy grew by 1.94 per cent last year

By - Oct 05,2019 - Last updated at Oct 05,2019

Restaurants in Sheikh Zayed road, on Wednesday, in Dubai (AFP photo)

DUBAI — With the highest tower in the world, grand commercial centres and artificial islands, Dubai projects an image of prosperity, even as the city-state races to court investors to bolster it economy.

Despite boasting the most diverse economy in the Gulf region, the emirate's vital property, tourism and trade sectors have weakened in recent years.

Real estate deals plunged 21.5 per cent to $60.7 billion in 2018, according to government data, while the number of tourists visiting Dubai remained stagnant at around 16 million in the past two years.

"Dubai's economic growth has been lacklustre... following a weak real estate market and subdued consumer spending," M.R. Raghu, head of research at Kuwait Financial Centre (Markaz), told AFP.

The emirate's economy grew by just 1.94 per cent last year — almost half of its 2017 growth and just a notch above the 1.9 per cent in 2010, when Dubai was still recovering from a recession due to the global financial crisis and its own debt problems.

 

Incentive measures 

 

But Raed Safadi, chief economic adviser to Dubai Economy, the government agency responsible for promoting development, downplayed reports about the slowdown.

"We are still growing. Yes, it is not at 4.5 per cent — the average between 2012 and 2016 — but given all the conditions around the world, it is healthy," Safadi told AFP.

He expects growth to pick up to 2.1 per cent in 2019 and rebound to as high as 3.8 per cent next year.

This prediction relies heavily on the Expo 2020 global trade fair that Dubai hopes will deliver an economic windfall and some 300,000 new jobs.

Safadi said Expo 2020 is expected to add some $35 billion to the economy over the subsequent decade.

But with the region's most open market, Dubai is exposed to global trade tensions, regional slowdown and the economic downturn in Iran under tough US sanctions, according to the London-based Capital Economics.

"All of this will weigh on Dubai's key logistics, tourism and manufacturing sectors," said James Swanston, an economist at Capital Economics.

To preserve Dubai's image as an economic hub, the city-state has implemented a raft of incentives.

Months ago, the government started granting permanent residencies to big investors and allowed foreigners to have full ownership of businesses throughout the emirate, including outside free zones.

Authorities also began offering long-term visas for foreign investors, students and talent, while revising fees on hundreds of services, freezing school fees and setting up a high-level committee to rebalance the property market.

With a population of 3.3 million — over 90 per cent of them expats — Dubai draws 70 per cent of its revenue from fees on various transactions and around 24 per cent from taxes and government company profits.

Just six per cent of its revenue comes from oil.

 

Public debt

 

Fahad Al Gergawi, CEO of Dubai Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), a public body, said reports of the downturn were exaggerated.

"The economic slowdown is not new to Dubai... but certain media reports highlight particular issues to show that Dubai is struggling," he told AFP on the sidelines of Dubai Investment Week held last week.

"We have passed through similar economic cycles in the past."

Gergawi said Dubai has been among the top 10 cities in the world for attracting new investment in the past five years and among the top three cities for FDI.

The government announced on Sunday that in the first half of 2019, the emirate received $12.7 billion in FDI, an increase of 135 per cent from the same period last year, surpassing even the $10.5 billion it received in 2018.

"In the medium term, spending related to hosting Dubai Expo 2020 and monetary easing measures would support growth. Furthermore, Dubai has been actively undertaking reform measures to boost the economy," Raghu said.

But Dubai, one of seven emirates that make up the United Arab Emirates, still faces high public debt of around $123 billion, or 110 per cent of GDP, divided almost equally between the government and state-linked companies.

About two-thirds of the debt of state-linked companies will mature by the end of 2023.

But Swanston said a "total debt default" is unlikely as oil-rich Abu Dhabi, the wealthiest emirate in the federation, "would come to the rescue" as it did when Dubai defaulted on its debt in 2009.

EU girds for witty response after US ups ante on tariffs

Tariffs would end up hurting Americans wallets — EU

By - Oct 03,2019 - Last updated at Oct 03,2019

In this photo taken on September 24, an Airbus A380 of the Emirates airline after landing on at the airport in Duesseldorf, western Germany (AFP file photo)

PARIS — European countries scrambled on Thursday to prepare a response to new US tariffs on billions of dollars' worth of EU goods after Washington got the go-ahead from the World Trade Organisation (WTO) to strike back over state subsidies for planemaker Airbus.

But officials also indicated they still hoped to find common ground to avoid escalating trade tensions that risk battering economies across the globe.

"We've been arguing for a trade deal for months. Our hand is extended," French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire said.

"I hope the United States will listen to this voice, which to my mind is the voice of reason," Le Maire told journalists in Paris, calling Washington's move to tax $7.5 billion of EU imports a "serious economic mistake".

US President Donald Trump has already imposed tariffs on steel and aluminium imports, saying America has gotten a raw trade deal from its partners.

The Airbus ruling on Wednesday marked the first time the WTO has cleared the United States to impose countermeasures on EU products under international trade law.

"A nice victory!" Trump wrote on Twitter, saying the EU "has for many years treated the USA very badly on Trade due to Tariffs, Trade Barriers, and more".

However, the EU has also filed a WTO suit claiming illegal aid for Airbus's US rival Boeing, with a decision expected in the coming months.

In the meantime, the bloc has warned it will retaliate in kind.

"If the American administration refuses to accept the hand extended by France and the EU, we are ready to respond with sanctions approved within the WTO framework," Le Maire said.

 

 'Hit US consumers' 

 

In the immediate line of fire are civilian aircraft from Britain, France, Germany and Spain — the countries which formed Airbus — which will cost 10 per cent more when imported to the US from October 18.

According to US data, the country imported about $3.5 billion in aircraft from the EU in 2018.

But the tariffs also target consumer products like French wine, which Trump had vowed to take aim at in recent months. Bottles from France, Spain and Germany will now face 25 per cent tariffs.

Different kinds of cheese from across Europe will also cost 25 per cent more for American consumers, as will "Made in England" suits, cashmere sweaters and pyjamas.

Italian farmers breathed a sigh of relief, since Italian favourites such as tomatoes, olive oil and wine will not be taxed.

The Coldiretti agriculture body said the US tariffs would impact 500 million euros' (almost $550 million's) worth of the roughly four billion euros of Italian food exports to the United States.

The EU, meanwhile, warned on Thursday the tariffs would only end up hurting Americans' wallets.

"This is a move that will first and foremost hit US consumers and companies, and will make efforts towards a negotiated settlement more complicated," Commission spokesman Daniel Rosario said in Brussels.

US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said on Wednesday he expected to begin talks with Brussels soon to try and resolve the dispute.

The EU and United States have reached such settlements in the past.

But European officials had already offered in July to call a truce on subsidies for airplane makers, in which both sides would admit fault and agree to curtail state aid — to no avail.

Twitter outages reported from Japan to USA

More than 3,200 complaints from across six continents

By - Oct 02,2019 - Last updated at Oct 02,2019

This photo taken on September 4 shows the logo of the US social networking website Twitter, displayed on a smart-phone screen, in Lille, northern France (AFP file photo)

SAN FRANCISCO — Several features on Twitter were down on Wednesday, the platform said, with users from Japan to the USA reporting they were unable to log in, use the mobile app or see direct messages.

“We’ve been experiencing outages across Twitter and TweetDeck,” the social media giant said in a statement, without giving a reason for the disruption. 

“You might have had trouble Tweeting, getting notifications, or viewing DMs. We’re currently working on a fix, and should be back to normal soon.”

Monitoring site outage.report said it had received more than 3,200 complaints from across six continents as of Wednesday, with users in the US, UK and India among those particularly badly hit.

Almost half of those reporting outages said the mobile app was not working, with around a quarter saying the whole website was down.

The site’s TweetDeck dashboard function allows users to monitor multiple accounts simultaneously and is particularly popular with journalists. 

Some users posted alongside the hashtag #twitterdown, although the site’s trending section was working only intermittently.

The multibillion-dollar platform’s popularity has soared in recent years.

But it has also come in for criticism, with its CEO Jack Dorsey admitting to US lawmakers last year that Twitter had been “unprepared and ill-equipped” for the vast campaigns of manipulation that affected social media.

In August hackers briefly took over Dorsey’s account and posted a series of racist and offensive tweets. 

Twitter on Tuesday also reported a minor outage in displaying user analytics.

Lebanon backs key importers amid fears of dollar shortage

By - Oct 01,2019 - Last updated at Oct 01,2019

BEIRUT — Lebanon’s central bank is to facilitate access to dollars for importers of petroleum products, wheat and medicine, state media said on Tuesday, following fears of a dollar shortage and possible currency devaluation.

Last week, local media said banks and money exchange shops were rationing dollar sales in the country, where Lebanese pounds and US dollars are used interchangeably in everyday transactions.

Petrol station owners threatened to strike over a lack of dollars at a fixed exchange rate to pay for imports, while flour producers complained over much higher rates from money changers.

The central bank on Monday adopted the measure to allow certain importers to obtain dollars at the bank rate to pay for key imports.

“Banks that issue letters of credit for the importation of petroleum products [petrol, fuel oil and gas], wheat and medicine will be able to ask the Banque du Liban to ensure the value of such credits in US dollars,” read the decision published by the National News Agency.

The mechanism requires that a “special account” be opened at the central bank, and at least 15 per cent of the value of the credit deposited in it in US dollars, as well as the full value in Lebanese pounds, it said.

The central bank will take 0.5 per cent from each transaction.

Lebanon has had a fixed exchange rate of around 1,500 Lebanese pounds to the dollar in place since 1997.

Central bank Governor Riad Salameh last week denied that the country was facing a currency reserve crisis, but it has become very difficult to withdraw dollars from ATMs in Beirut.

Economic growth in Lebanon has plummeted in the wake of repeated political deadlocks in recent years, compounded by eight years of war in neighbouring Syria.

Lebanon’s public debt stands at around $86 billion — more than 150 per cent of gross domestic product — according to the finance ministry.

Eighty per cent of that debt is owed to Lebanon’s central bank and local banks.

In July, parliament passed an austerity budget as part of conditions to unlock $11 billion in aid pledged at a conference in Paris last year.

‘Zuckerberg to 'go to the mat' to fight breakup’

By - Oct 01,2019 - Last updated at Oct 01,2019

This photo, taken on August 28, shows the logo of US online social media and social networking service, Facebook displayed on a tablet in Lille (AFP file photo)

SAN FRANCISCO — Facebook chief Mark Zuckerberg has pledged to "go to the mat" to fight a government attempt to break up the social media giant, according to a report on Tuesday, based on a leaked audio recording.

Tech news site The Verge released leaked audio from a meeting of Facebook employees in July in which Zuckerberg said he would challenge a breakup effort, repeating his argument that splitting the company would not address issues raised by critics.

Zuckerberg specifically addressed the plan by Democratic presidential hopeful Senator Elizabeth Warren to break up major tech platforms.

"If she gets elected president, then I would bet that we will have a legal challenge, and I would bet that we will win the legal challenge," Zuckerberg said.

"And does that still suck for us? Yeah. I mean, I don't want to have a major lawsuit against our own government... But look, at the end of the day, if someone's going to try to threaten something that existential, you go to the mat and you fight."

Zuckerberg also told employees he did not plan to testify in other countries investigating the company on privacy and antitrust issues.

"It just doesn't really make sense for me to go to hearings in every single country that wants to have me show up," he said.

Speaking of Facebook's planned digital currency Libra, Zuckerberg said he remained optimistic on its prospects despite harsh comments from public officials in several countries.

"The public things, I think, tend to be a little more dramatic," he said.

"But a bigger part of it is private engagement with regulators around the world, and those, I think, often, are more substantive and less dramatic... That's where a lot of the discussions and details get hashed out on things."

Zuckerberg also said Facebook was planning a new service to take on the fast-growing social media app TikTok, controlled by a Chinese firm.

"We have a product called Lasso that's a standalone app that we're working on, trying to get product-market fit in countries like Mexico," he said.

"We're trying to first see if we can get it to work in countries where TikTok is not already big before we go and compete with TikTok in countries where they are big."

Facebook did not immediately respond to queries on the report.

Oil drops as Saudi Arabia opts to avert a military response to Iran crisis

By - Sep 30,2019 - Last updated at Sep 30,2019

LONDON — Oil prices fell more than one per cent on Monday after Saudi Arabia’s de facto leader said war with Iran would destroy the world economy and hinted instead at a non-military solution.

Washington, Riyadh, Berlin, London and Paris blame Iran for attacks that damaged the Saudi oil sector on September 14 and forced the world’s largest crude exporter to sharply reduce production.

Elsewhere Monday, stock markets diverged as traders tracked the latest twists and turns regarding the US-China trade war. The dollar was mixed against main rivals.

“In terms of geopolitical concerns, common sense is prevailing for now in Saudi Arabia,” noted analyst Naeem Aslam at traders ThinkMarkets, in reference to the comments by Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman in an interview with CBS show “60 minutes” broadcast over the weekend.

The Saudi official said a war would be catastrophic for global growth.

 

‘Unimaginably high’ 

 

“Oil supplies will be disrupted and oil prices will jump to unimaginably high numbers that we haven’t seen in our lifetimes,” the prince said.

“The region represents about 30 per cent of the world’s energy supplies, about 20 per cent of global trade passages, about four per cent of the world GDP. Imagine all of these three things stop,” he said.

“This means a total collapse of the global economy, and not just Saudi Arabia or the Middle East countries.”

Iran’s oil minister, meanwhile, on Sunday ordered his country’s energy sector to be on high alert to the threat of “physical and cyber” attacks.

Bijan Namdar Zanganeh said “it is necessary for all companies and installations of the oil industry to be on full alert against physical and cyber threats”, in a statement published on the oil ministry’s Shana website.

Tehran has denied any link to the Saudi strikes, which were claimed by Huthi rebels in Yemen. Iran supports the rebels against a Saudi-led coalition that has been fighting the Huthis since 2015.

“Oil has been amazing everyone over the last couple of weeks, having surged on the back of the attack on the Saudi oil facilities before reversing the entirety of these gains, despite the country temporarily losing half its output,” Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at Oanda trading group, said on Monday. 

“Traders are clearly not particularly concerned about risk premiums in oil... Instead, the focus again seems to be shifting back to the demand dynamics and the risk of further downgrades as the global economic slowdown takes hold,” he added.

 

US-China trade war 

 

Elsewhere on Monday, investors digested reports in US media that President Donald Trump is mulling severe new restrictions on investment in China.

Shanghai and Tokyo stock markets slumped the day before a week-long patriotic holiday begins in China, despite assurances from the US Treasury that there were no plans to stop Chinese companies from listing on US exchanges.

On Tuesday, the Asian giant celebrates 70 years since the founding of China, with markets closed from October 1 to 7,

Shanghai closed down 0.9 per cent as some investors took profits, with uncertainty fuelled by fears of an escalation in the US-China trade war that has raged for more than a year.

“The Sino-US trade negotiations have been full of twists and turns,” said Zhang Gang, an analyst with Central China Securities.

“You don’t know what remarks Trump would make in the next seven days, or what variables there will be from the US side. So [investors] have set themselves in a low-key, waiting position.”

China’s factory activity edges up in September

Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose from 49.5 in August to 49.8 this month

By - Sep 30,2019 - Last updated at Sep 30,2019

This file photo, taken last Tuesday, shows employees producing down coats at a factory for Chinese clothing company Bosideng in Nantong in China's eastern Jiangsu province (AFP file photo)

BEIJING — China's manufacturing sector showed unexpected signs of improvement with two indexes showing on Monday that manufacturing activity edged up in September, despite ongoing trade pressure with the US.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose from 49.5 in August to 49.8 this month — better than predicted in a Bloomberg survey of economists.

However, for the fifth month it remained below the 50 level that divides expansion from contraction.

But an independent gauge, the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI, was more optimistic, saying there was a modest improvement in overall operating conditions during September, with production and total new orders both expanding at quicker rates than the month before.

The Caixin manufacturing PMI increased from 50.4 in August to 51.4.

The US and China have been locked in a bruising trade war for more than a year, with the world's two biggest economies imposing tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars in bilateral trade.

Caixin said confidence among goods producers was still "subdued" as worries persisted over the outcome of China-US trade negotiations, set to continue next month in Washington.

Julian Evans-Pritchard, of Capital Economics, said the improved data was unlikely to mark the start of a turnaround.

"Not only is global demand set to weaken further, but the long-overdue pull-back in property construction is getting under way," he said.

"And with the fiscal stance unlikely to be loosened during the remainder of the year, the [central bank] will find it an increasingly hard sell to refrain from more decisive monetary easing."

Government data released earlier this month showed that industrial output grew by 4.4 per cent year-on-year throughout August, falling to its lowest level in 17 years and down from 4.8 per cent in July.

Earlier this month, China's central bank slashed reserve requirement ratios for banks — freeing up about $126 billion to boost lending to mostly small and medium enterprises.

European stocks advance as trade optimism takes hold

US-China trade talks to resume on October 10

By - Sep 29,2019 - Last updated at Sep 29,2019

The pound has fallen to $1.2271, the lowest point in nearly four weeks (AFP file photo)

LONDON — Stock markets in Europe climbed on Friday as fresh optimism about US-China trade talks took hold, analysts said.

The pound hit near four-week lows against the dollar amid Brexit uncertainty.

London stocks were the continent's top performer by the close, boosted by the weaker currency.

A report by CNBC saying that US-China trade talks are to resume on October 10 was well received as it matched the market's narrative seen in recent sessions, analysts said.

Trade optimism "is overshadowing ramped-up political noise in Washington and global growth uncertainties", said analysts at Charles Schwab.

 

Smiling faces 

 

But while "Europe kept a smile plastered on its face", US markets were more reticent, said Connor Campbell at Spreadex. The Dow index kicked the New York session off on a stronger note, but then slipped into negative territory.

However, Forex.com analyst Faward Razaqzada suggested US markets were ready for a breakout after absorbing so much negative news recently.

"What can't break you makes you stronger," he said.

A move towards easier central bank monetary policy was helping sentiment, he said.

Bank of England board member Michael Saunders appeared to open the door to a rate cut, said Fiona Cincotta, senior market analyst at City Index trading group.

 

Pound tanks 

 

But the very same factor boosting stock sentiment caused the pound to "tank", she said.

"The comments from Saunders highlight the marked weakening of the UK economy over recent quarters, dragged down not only by Brexit uncertainty but also softer global growth," Cincotta added.

The pound fell to $1.2271, the lowest point in nearly four weeks, before clawing back some of its losses. 

The weaker sterling pushed up share prices of multinationals listed on London's benchmark FTSE 100 index.

In commodities, crude prices steadied, having slipped earlier following the swift recovery in Saudi production that slumped in the wake of attacks on its oil infrastructure two weeks ago.

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