Scenarios for Iranian response to Haniyeh’s assassination

The assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, head of the political bureau of Hamas, represents a dangerous escalation in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and has broad regional and international repercussions. Iran is a major ally of Hamas and a strong supporter of the Palestinian resistance, so this assassination will necessitate a strong and diverse Iranian response. Here we will review possible scenarios for Iran’s response to this assassination.

First Scenario: Direct military support for the resistance. One of the expected scenarios is providing direct military support to Hamas and other Palestinian factions in Gaza. This support may include providing Hamas with more advanced missiles, and Iran may increase its supply of long-range, precision-guided missile technology, such as Fajr and Shehab missiles.

Iran may also send technical information and military expertise to Gaza to train Hamas fighters in the manufacture and use of advanced weapons and modern military tactics. It is expected that Iran will increase its funding to Hamas to support the resistance efforts and rebuild military capabilities.

Second scenario: Escalation of military operations through Iran's allies, and it may resort to using its regional allies to respond to the assassination, such as Hizbollah in Lebanon, Shiite militias in Iraq and armed groups in Syria. This strategy may include intensifying attacks on Israel, and Hizbollah may launch missile attacks on northern Israel, opening a new front in the conflict.

It may also carry out cross-border operations through Iranian-backed militias in Iraq and Syria by launching attacks on Israeli bases and American targets in the region. As well as escalating unconventional attacks, including the use of drones and explosions.

Third scenario: Diplomatic and political response, and Iran may resort to using diplomatic and political channels to respond to the assassination of Haniyeh. This strategy includes internationalising the issue. Iran will try to internationalise the issue of Haniyeh's assassination by presenting it to the United Nations and other international organisations and seeking to issue resolutions condemning the assassination and imposing sanctions on Israel.

As well as forming regional Al liances to strengthen alliances with friendly countries in the region such as Syria, Lebanon and Yemen (the Houthis), with the aim of increasing political pressure on Israel. Iran could also use the media to highlight the assassination and inflame world public opinion against Israel.

Fourth scenario: Combining military and diplomatic tactics: Iran may resort to a combination of military and diplomatic tactics to achieve maximum impact. This scenario depends on coordinating attacks as it did on April 14 of this year, but in a more complex manner and with more advanced weapons than those it has used before, in addition to diplomatic pressure, and carrying out direct attacks from Iran and coordinated by its allies in the region, while escalating political and diplomatic pressure on Israel in international forums.

Cyber ​​warfare may also be used, and Iran may launch cyber-attacks on Israel’s vital infrastructure as part of its comprehensive response. At the same time, it may strengthen internal resistance and provide support to other Palestinian resistance movements in the West Bank and other areas, with the aim of increasing pressure on Israel from within. 

Fifth scenario: Targeting Israeli interests. Iran may expand the scope of its response to include targeting Israeli and American interests through its agents in the region and abroad. This scenario includes attacks on embassies and bases: Launching attacks on Israeli and American embassies and military bases in the region. And carrying out retaliatory operations against Israeli figures abroad. How much it can encourage internal attacks: Supporting and motivating sleeper cells to carry out attacks inside Israel.

Finally: The assassination of Ismail Haniyeh represents a major challenge for Iran and its allies and will require a complex and diverse response. The Iranian response could range from direct military support for the Palestinian resistance, to escalating military operations through its allies, to using diplomatic and political tools. In any case, this escalation will lead to increased tensions in the region, making it necessary to follow developments carefully and analyse possible responses carefully to avoid escalating the conflict to higher levels.

Hasan Dajah is professor of Strategic Studies — Al-Hussein Bin Talal University