Russia’s game in Syria

News that Russia is building up its military presence in Syria is sounding the alarm not only in Washington but in other Western capitals and capitals of countries of the region as well.

US Secretary of State John Kerry reacted quickly, calling his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, Saturday to express his country’s concern about the reports.

The US State Department then issued a statement saying: “The secretary made clear that if such reports were accurate, these actions could further escalate the conflict, increase refugees flow and risks confrontation with the anti-ISIL [Daesh] coalition in Syria.”

While the Russian foreign minister offered to discuss these reports, he stopped short of denying them.

Increased Russian involvement in the civil war in Syria, through more military presence and offer of hardware, is bound to act as a game changer.

Moscow could be eyeing not only Syria and the events there, but also some geopolitical objectives touching on its military and political moves in Ukraine.

NATO’s response to all this could very well be enhanced with military assistance to the NATO states surrounding the Russian Federation. That, in turn, will make Russia send the message — to the West, but especially to the US — that increasing military, political and economic pressure on it comes at a price.

Moscow seeks to weaken the Western response to its last year’s annexation of Crimea and its continued efforts to have certain regions in Eastern Ukraine secede and join Russia.

The economic and financial pressure on Russia is formidable, especially after the dramatic drop in oil prices in the world market. One should not forget that the Soviet Union collapsed because of the economic hardship that faced the communist country at the time.

The Middle Eastern countries will no doubt be influenced by the way a confrontation between the West and Russia is going to play out.

More amiable, flexible and reasonable ties between Moscow and the West regarding Syria and other flashpoints in the region will go a long way towards bringing the prospect of a solution closer to realisation.