World

PARIS — French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou is expected on Wednesday to survive a no-confidence vote in parliament, winning some breathing space after less than two months in office but by no means ensuring his long-term future.

Bayrou, a veteran centrist named by President Emmanuel Macron in December to end months of political crisis, on Monday used a controversial constitutional article to ram his cost-cutting budget through parliament without a vote.

But the use of this mechanism, article 49.3, allows the opposition to put forward a no-confidence motion and the bid to topple the government was duly proposed by the hard-left France Unbowed, backed by the Communists and the Greens, to be voted on Wednesday.

But while Bayrou is nowhere near having a majority in the National Assembly, the Socialists and far-right National Rally (RN) both said they would not back the no-confidence motion.

This gives Bayrou the numbers to survive and see through the budget. But it is unlikely to be the only challenge to his shaky administration in the coming months.

Bayrou, a keen historian who has written a book on his hero French king Henri IV assassinated in Paris in 1610, is well versed in how political ambition can suddenly come to an end.

"Passive support from both the Socialists and Marine Le Pen's far-right for Bayrou will end once a 2025 budget is fully enacted in the next few days," risk analysis firm Eurasia Group said, giving a 70-percent chance that the government will "fall in the next few months".

'Give France a budget' 

Jordan Bardella, RN leader, said his party did not intend to back the no-confidence vote adding while "it's a bad budget... we need a budget".

"We need to avoid uncertainty because many of our fellow citizens... are extremely worried about possible long-term instability," he said.

Socialist leader Olivier Faure said his party decided against voting to topple the government over the budget, as it would only have resulted in France having "a prime minister further to the right", or even "the resignation of a head of state".

"We chose to give France a budget," he told the France Inter radio station.

The move by the Socialists is a major boost for Bayrou that could mark the end of a broad left-wing alliance including the Socialists and LFI party that had endured since the election campaign.

But in a symbolic move, the party leadership decided Monday to propose a separate no-confidence motion after Bayrou referred to migrants "flooding" France, using terminology previously used by the far- right.

However, this has little chance of passing as it is expected to be rejected by all right-wing parties.

Bayrou's predecessor Michel Barnier was toppled in a no-confidence vote late last year, leaving France in uncharted political waters.

'Need stability' 

The survival of Bayrou's government will be a relief for Macron who has faced calls to resign since the middle of last year but insisted he will stay on until the end of his term, due to end in 2027.

Many analysts and even allies are still baffled by the president's decision to call snap parliamentary elections last summer which gave the far right its biggest ever foothold in a divided parliament.

The cost-cutting and tax-hiking budget has proved controversial in some quarters, with France's richest man, the luxury goods mogul Bernard Arnault, denouncing a planned special corporate tax.

"We need stability," Macron said on Tuesday, while adding that "we should not go backwards".

Turbulent months remain ahead in French politics.

A verdict is due in far-right leader Marine Le Pen's fake EU parliament jobs trial -- on charges she denies -- on March 31 and she could be disqualified from the 2027 elections if convicted in a major political crossroads.

STOCKHOLM — Five people were shot and wounded at a school in the central Swedish city of Orebro on Tuesday, police said, urging the public to stay away from the area as a large operation was under way.

Images from the scene showed a large police presence with multiple ambulances and emergency vehicles outside the school.

Several media, including tabloid Expressen and news agency TT, reported that the suspected shooter had shot himself dead, but police have not confirmed that information.

School attacks are relatively rare in Sweden, which has in recent years grown more accustomed to shootings and bombings linked to gang violence that kill dozens of people each year.

“The extent of the injuries is unclear. The operation is ongoing,” police said in a statement.

Police initially said that four people had been shot, but updated the tally minutes later to five.

A teacher at the school said he was in the school when he heard gunfire.

“I heard shots fired, so I’ve barricaded myself and am waiting for news. We have an alarm on our security app and I’m communicating with my colleagues,” Petter Kraftling told the online union newspaper Vi Larare.

According to media reports, the attack took place at the Campus Risbergska school, a secondary school for adults.

A website for Orebro’s healthcare authorities confirmed that four people had been admitted to Orebro University Hospital after the shooting, but said it was unable to provide details about their ages or injuries.

The crime was being investigated as “attempted murder, arson and an aggravated weapons offence”, police said.

Members of the public were urged to stay away from the area, or stay inside their homes.

In an update just after 2:00 pm (13:00 GMT), police stressed that “the danger is not over. The public MUST stay away”.

Police were to hold a press conference at 3:30 pm (14:30 GMT).

Newspapers Expressen and Aftonbladet reported that police had been fired on at the scene, but police said in a statement no officers had been wounded during the operation.

Students in nearby schools and the school in question had been locked in “for safety reasons”, police said.

Speaking to public broadcaster SVT, Justice Minister Gunnar Strommer said the reports were “very serious”.

“The government is in close contact with the police and is closely following developments,” Strommer told SVT.

According to several Swedish media, witnesses reported hearing what they believed to be automatic gunfire.

Aftonbladet wrote that it had received reports that the local hospital had emptied its emergency room and intensive care unit in anticipation of the arrival of the wounded people.

Though school attacks are rare, several serious incidents have taken place at schools in recent years.

In March 2022, an 18-year-old student stabbed two teachers to death at a secondary school in the southern city of Malmo.

Two months earlier, a 16-year-old was arrested after wounding another student and a teacher with a knife at a school in the small town of Kristianstad.

In October 2015, three people were killed in a racially-motivated attack at a school in the western town of Trollhattan by a sword-wielding assailant later killed by police.

OSLO — Former NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg was on Tuesday named Norway’s new finance minister, taking on the key role as the Labour government lags in the polls and a possible transatlantic trade war looms on the horizon.

Stoltenberg, 65, was Norwegian prime minister between 2000 and 2001 and again from 2005 to 2013 before serving as NATO secretary general between 2014 and 2024, when he developed good ties with US President Donald Trump in his first term.

His appointment as finance minister comes after the collapse of Norway’s coalition government last week, when the junior Centre Party quit the government.

The eurosceptic party disagreed with Labour’s intention to implement EU energy directives.

The move left the Labour Party alone in government with a very weak minority in parliament, and meant Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store had to find eight new ministers to fill empty positions in his cabinet.

An economist by training, Stoltenberg has previously served as minister of industry in the 1990s and then as finance minister, in the wealthy Scandinavian country with vast oil and gas reserves and hydro power.

Political observers said his unexpected return to domestic politics was expected to give Labour a boost seven months ahead of legislative elections, given his popularity among Norwegians.

“A strong vitamin injection,” said TV2 political commentator Aslak Eriksrud.

Stoltenberg’s ties with Trump could also prove useful at a time when Norway, which is not a member of the European Union, fears its open and trade-dependent economy could suffer if a trade war breaks out between the United States and Europe.

Trump has threatened to impose tariffs on the EU, and Brussels has warned such a move would be met with countermeasures.

After leaving NATO, Stoltenberg was named chairman of the Munich Security Conference (MSC), viewed as the “Davos of defence” gathering the geopolitical elite every year.

In a statement from the MSC on Tuesday, Stoltenberg said he would return to that position when his tenure in government was over. 

CAPE TOWN — The remains of 14 South African soldiers killed in the conflict in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo more than a week ago are due home Wednesday, the defence force said, amid calls for all the troops to be withdrawn.

The defence minister and army chief were grilled by a parliament committee Tuesday over South Africa's role in eastern DRC, where the Rwanda-backed M23 armed group has made significant territorial gains.

The defence ministry announced the deaths of nine South African soldiers on January 25. The killing of three more troops was announced three days later, while two more men died of their wounds.

Most of the casualties were part of a mission deployed by the 16-nation Southern African Development Community (SADC) in 2023 to support the DRC government amid growing unrest in its mineral-rich east.

At least two of those killed were in a separate UN-mandated peacekeeping force.

Reflecting frustration about the lack of information about the casualties and situation of the troops still in eastern DRC, MPs in the committee hearing demanded to know when the dead and wounded would be brought home.

"I got a message to say there is assurance that the repatriation of our members is going to take place tomorrow," defence force chief General Rudzani Maphwanya said. He did not give details.

He and the defence minister, Angie Motshekga, defended South Africa's role in the DRC, where its troops make up the bulk of the SADC deployment alongside smaller numbers from Malawi and Tanzania.

But they offered little information about the deployment, amid reports that the soldiers were under-resourced and unable to leave.

"Our members had been resourced. They've been properly trained. We have done everything that needed to be done in order to protect those that were in the battlefield," Maphwanya said.

The second largest party in South Africa's government of national unity, the Democratic Alliance (DA), issued a statement after the committee hearing, complained that Motshekga had "failed to respond to critical questions regarding the situation on the ground".

"The DA strongly reiterates our call for the immediate withdrawal of South African troops from the DRC," it said.

The increase in fighting has spurred several calls for talks and Congolese President Felix Tshisekedi and Rwandan President Paul Kagame are expected to meet in the Tanzanian city of Dar es Salaam on Saturday.

PARIS — Russian forces advanced 430 square kilometres into Ukrainian territory in January and are headed towards the logistics hub of Pokrovsk, according to an AFP analysis of data from the US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

This marks a slight slowdown compared to previous months, after a record advance of 725 square kilometres in November and 476 square kilometres in December.

More than 80 per cent of Russia's advances in January took place in the Donetsk region, where Moscow's troops are trying to capture the key city of Pokrovsk.

The Russian army also advanced about 50 square kilometres on the northeastern front around the city of Kupiansk.

Moscow's advances in Ukraine had slowed during the previous two winters: In January 2023 it advanced 285 square kilometres, while in January 2024 it gained just 146 square kilometres.

Russia stepped up its offensive in the summer of 2024, while Ukraine made a large-scale operation toward the Russian city of Kursk, covering nearly 1,300 square kilometres in two weeks. 

But the territory seized during Ukraine's advance shrank over the following months. 

From 483 square kilometres on December 31, it further decreased by about 40 kilometres, extending over 442 square kilometres at the end of January. 

AFP's calculations are based on files communicated daily by the ISW, which relies on information shared by both camps and satellite image analysis.

BRUSSELS, Belgium — Conservative Bart De Wever was sworn in Monday as Belgium's new prime minister, after striking a hard-fought coalition deal that moves the country to the right.

Reached after seven months of tortuous negotiations, the agreement makes De Wever the first nationalist from Dutch-speaking Flanders to be named Belgian premier.

A law-and-order candidate whose coalition has already promised to crack down on irregular migration, De Wever's rise to power reinforces a marked right-wing shift in European politics.

The 54-year-old, who in recent years has backed off on calls for Flanders to become an independent country, took the oath of office before King Philippe at the royal palace in Brussels.

From there, he headed straight to a gathering of EU leaders a few blocks away, for talks on defence and transatlantic relations — quipping to reporters that he was "jumping right in".

On the day's headline topic, De Wever said Belgium was committed to meeting NATO's longstanding defence spending target of two percent of GDP, up from 1.3 percent at present.

"Europe has been a bit lazy on the topic of defence," he said — arguing that Russian President Vladimir "Putin has woken us up."

Faced with a twin challenge from President Donald Trump — threatening trade tariffs as well as pressuring allies to ramp up defence spending — De Wever said the EU needed to preserve its "relationship with the United States."

De Wever's N-VA party is part of the hard-right ECR group in the European Parliament, which also includes lawmakers from the parties of Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and Czech leader Petr Fiala.

"Our ECR group now has three prime ministers at the European Council table and participates in the government of seven countries," French hard-right lawmaker Marion Marechal rejoiced on X.

Hard-right parties, often riding anti-immigrant sentiment, performed strongly in European Parliament elections last year, and have topped recent national and regional votes in Austria, Germany and the Netherlands.

60-hour-marathon 

Split between French- and Dutch-speaking communities and with a highly complex political system, Belgium has an unenviable record of painfully protracted coalition discussions — reaching 541 days back in 2010-2011.

This time around, five groups sought to forge a coalition after June elections that failed to produce a clear majority — with talks led by De Wever's N-VA which claimed the most seats.

The new government brings together three parties from Dutch-speaking Flanders: the N-VA, the centrist Christian-Democrats and the leftist Vooruit (Onward).

And it includes two from French-speaking Wallonia: the centrist Les Engages and the centre-right Reformist Movement.

Together, they hold an 81-seat majority in Belgium's 150-seat parliament.

Coalition talks hit a wall during the summer over the issue of plugging the country's budget deficit — estimated at 4.6 percent of gross domestic product in 2024, one of the highest in the European Union.

Belgium is one of seven EU countries facing disciplinary action for running a deficit above three percent of GDP, in violation of the bloc's fiscal rules.

De Wever, the mayor of Antwerp since 2013, has pushed for cuts in social benefits and pension reforms that have already sparked opposition from labour unions.

He had threatened to throw in the towel if no coalition deal was reached Friday.

An agreement was struck with just hours to go after a 60-hour marathon session to iron out differences over an 800-page programme.

But the gender makeup of the new government has raised some eyebrows, with 11 men and just four women.

De Wever's N-VA was already part of a right-leaning ruling coalition between 2014 and 2018.

He takes over from outgoing prime minister Alexander De Croo, whose seven-party coalition took an arduous 493 days to emerge back in 2019-2020.

De Croo had stayed on as caretaker leader after the June elections.

STANSTEAD, Canada — Fresh footprints cut across the thick blanket of snow outside a small white house near the line dividing Canada and the United States.

For Canadian border officer Keven Rouleau, it's a clear sign of illegal migration.

"They regularly run across the border," he told AFP, which shadowed him on patrol.

In 2024, these southbound migrants numbered 21,000 — a drop in the ocean compared to the 1.5 million intercepted on the US border with Mexico.

Migrants who cross from Canada into the United States in the winter face dangerous conditions, with deep snow and high winds, and are often forced to abandon their vehicles to proceed on foot.

They are sometimes only lightly dressed and wearing "simple sneakers in 20 centimetres (nearly eight inches) of snow," Rouleau said of the migrants, who sometimes hide under trees to avoid detection.

Canadian officers with bullhorns and powerful searchlights give chase, seeking to stop them from crossing the border, according to Rouleau.

Since US President Donald Trump returned to the White House in a blaze of executive actions and rhetoric on immigration, the border has been thrust into the spotlight.

On Saturday he made good on his threats to impose tariffs on Canada — and Mexico — over the flow of migrants, as well as the smuggling of lethal drugs.

Canadian exports to the United States will now face a 25 per cent tariff, although energy resources from Canada will have a lower 10 per cent levy.

The meandering border between the neighbors is the longest in the world at 5,525 miles (8,891 kilometers) long. It is largely open without significant fencing and crisscrossed by thousands of miles of dense forests and farmland, and only a few rural roads.

Drug smuggling 

Rouleau patrols a 200-mile stretch of the border in the province of Quebec.

Ten officers are on duty around the clock, either in vehicles to detect suspicious footprints in winter, or by monitoring feeds from surveillance cameras. They also field reports of suspicious activity from the local community.

Since Trump started to rail against Ottawa's handling of border security, Canada has been at pains to insist that its frontier is nothing like the US border with Mexico.

Nonetheless Prime Minister Justin Trudeau quickly rolled out a Can$1.3 billion ($894 million) border security plan.

To much fanfare, the Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) unveiled two Black Hawk helicopters, repainted in police colors from their former US Army camouflage, that will help with "rapid intervention."

An RCMP spokesman insisted there was no migration "crisis" and that "the situation is entirely under control."

Canadian authorities say the number of crossings from their side of the line to the United States has dropped 90 per cent since last summer.

US Customs and Border Protection stats show that 42 pounds (19 kilograms) of potentially deadly fentanyl was seized last year entering the country from Canada, compared to 21,160 pounds from Mexico.

Rouleau, the Canadian border officer, said that while the concern of local people has been palpable since Trump's reelection, his job has remained the same.

"It's the status quo," he said.

Jody Stone, mayor of Stanstead, a small Canadian town in Rouleau's patch, said "the border is quiet."

Residents have become accustomed to the presence of surveillance cameras clandestinely fitted to utility poles, she said, allowing officers to detect and monitor illegal activity.