‘Patience in diplomacy works’

Iranians danced in the streets on Tuesday night to celebrate the deal between the six world powers and Tehran over their country’s nuclear programme. Iranians have good reason to cheer. The agreement is set to end a 12-year confrontation, halt Iran’s international isolation, phase out the sanctions regime that has crippled the economy and reduced oil exports, and deprived the population of medications, essential items like spare parts for Iran’s ageing commercial aircraft, and commercial goods.

Failure to reach an agreement would have deepened Iran’s economic ailments, inflicted further harm on its population, intensified the Iran-Saudi confrontation, and risked a nuclear arms race in this region although Iran has no nuclear weapons and has repeatedly pledged not to obtain such weapons.

The deal could encourage the five permanent Security Council members plus Germany, the broad coalition that negotiated successfully with Iran, to press for the Middle East to become a nuclear weapons free region, thereby confronting the huge problem of Israel’s large undeclared nuclear weapons arsenal.

The deal formally ushers in an era of peaceful coexistence between Iran and the Western powers. Iran is no longer part of George W. Bush’s “axis of evil” while the US is no longer the “Great Satan”. The accord could alter the brutal dynamics of the proxy wars in this region if all those involved join a concerted campaign to fight Daesh and other terror groups on the ground, in the mosques and schools, and in social media.

Unless this is undertaken by all members of the international community, Daesh or similar movements will continue to spread and expand, threatening not only this region but also Sub-Saharan Africa, Asia, Europe and North America.

Once these groups are contained, defeated and deprived of their territorial bases in Syria and Iraq and the flow of Arab and non-Arab foreign fighters is stemmed, the region will be in a better position to come to terms with an Iran which is not constantly on the defensive and is ready to seek common ground with its neighbours. The Iran deal shows that patience in negotiations and diplomacy work.

The agreement is certain to boost President Hassan Rouhani’s standing and ensure that he wins a second term in the 2017 election while reformist candidates could make gains in parliamentary elections due in March 2016. The US-based Iran Human Rights hailed the accord as a “Victory for Diplomacy and Peace”. The organisation had warned that failure would result in “economic disaster, increased political and cultural repression, and possibly war”. An opinion survey showed that 71 per cent of respondents expect economic dividends once sanctions are lifted while 61 per cent feel Rouhani would be strengthened enough to initiate political reforms and, hopefully, end human rights abuses.

Fearing Iran’s opening to the world and reforms on the domestic scene, Iranian hardliners will loudly protest the agreement but they could face disapproval from supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the ultimate decider in Iran. He supported the negotiations throughout and can be expected to back the final accord.

Khamenei understands only too well that he must have the people with him if his last word is to be respected.

The ayatollah, who belongs to the hardline camp, can count on the support of Republican guard commanders who have expressed support for the deal which would free from sanctions the corps’ extensive holdings in defence industries, construction and oil, worth billions of dollars a year. The “bazaaris” — the merchant class which was behind the 1979 revolution and small-scale businessmen are eager to resume import-export commerce.

All these factors could dissuade Khamenei from rowing back on the deal as it would lose him support from many quarters and weaken his position. Consequently, Iran is in a better position with regard to acceptance than is the US.

There, President Barack Obama, a Democrat, faces fierce opposition from Republican majorities in both houses of Congress as well as a powerful right-wing media which have been dead against any deal. Opponents not only condemn the agreement and normalisation of relations with Iran but also want to deny Obama, the country’s first black president, a victory. For many, depriving Obama of an honourable legacy is their primary motivation. Obama, rather than Iran, is the real target. This is particularly true because the US has entered the race for the presidency which culminates in the November 2016 election. House of Representatives speaker John Bohner has already come out against the deal, as has candidate Jeb Bush.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who prefers war rather than negotiations, will pile pressure on subservient Congressmen to legislate against the agreement and since Republicans are in the majority they may be able to adopt a bill by simple majority. Obama has already made it clear he would veto any such measure. Commentators argue that it is unlikely that the opposition can muster the two-thirds majority needed in the upper house, the Senate, to overturn a presidential veto.

Unfortunately, the delay in reaching the agreement has given Congress and its allies 60 days to consider its terms and mount a campaign against the deal, which is supported by 60 per cent of the US public, transforming a real achievement into bitter political battle ahead of next year’s presidential and congressional election campaigns that are certain to be destructive and bruising, and divide the already deeply divided US public even more.