Needed respite in Syria

Syrians at home and abroad sighed with relief when last Saturday guns and mortars fell silent in their country and Russia suspended for 24 hours aerial bombing of groups dubbed “terrorist” by the UN.

The partial cessation of hostilities, which had come into effect overnight, is the first in the five-year Syrian conflict.

Although Russia has resumed bombing of allegedly “terrorist” infested areas, the Syrian army continues to challenge certain armed factions, and mortar shells have been fired into Damascus by opposition groups, the ceasefire has generally held.

Insurgent groups attached to the Saudi-backed High Negotiations Committee (HNC) are party to the cessation of hostilities and are obliged to abide by it.

Independents are not, but are so far respecting the deal.

Daesh and Al Qaeda’s Jabhat Al Nusra, both regarded as “terrorist” groups, are excluded and can be expected to act as spoilers.

While Daesh forces are largely concentrated in Raqqa and Deir Al Zor provinces, and around Palmyra and Aleppo city, Al Nusra has deployed throughout the country and cooperates with local armed elements, some of whom belong to the HNC and accepted the ceasefire. Nevertheless, Al Nusra’s presence remains a pretext and justification for Russian air strikes and Syrian army action.

Syrian and Russian military activity is obviously being governed by a strategy set by the Syrian army command in consultation with Russia and Iran, which supports Syrian army ground operations.

According to US Secretary of State John Kerry, Iran has withdrawn a substantial number of troops from Syria, perhaps due to the ceasefire.

The predicted “Aleppo offensive” has not materialised. Instead, government forces, given Russian air cover, have formed an insurgent-free zone to the east and north of the city to cut the flow of men and materiel from Turkey.

An assault on the eastern quarters of the city would be too deadly and destructive to contemplate at this time because negotiations may, eventually, end the occupation of these areas by insurgent factions.

The Syrian army is focusing on pushing Daesh back into Raqqa, the only province held by this group.

In this effort, the army has the support of local and Deir Al Zor tribes, which have suffered massacres by Daesh fighters.

Damascus is well aware that the US-led anti-Daesh coalition is contemplating a ground offensive against Daesh in Raqqa.

The government has condemned this possibility as external “aggression” and seeks to pre-empt such a campaign by carrying out its own phased offensive for which the army has Russian and Iranian backing.

No one can complain that Damascus is taking on Daesh in its lair.

Moscow has warned that both Turkey and Saudi Arabia could intervene in the Syrian war on the side of chosen insurgents under the guise of fighting Daesh.

Such action could lead to skirmishes between Russia and Turkish/Saudi forces and precipitate a clash between Russia and NATO, a risk Washington does not want to contemplate.

A US defence official has said that Washington will continue to back forces on the ground in Syria that fight Daesh; this support should, logically, extend to the Syrian army as well as to the Kurdish-Arab forces battling Daesh along the Turkish frontier. But logic does not come into the calculations of the mighty in Washington. The Syrian army is tackling insurgents, said to include Al Nusra elements, in Daraya southwest of Damascus, in order to cut links between Daraya and Muadamiya, a large district that has agreed to a truce and “reconciliation” with the government.

Daraya is also the last remaining insurgent-held suburb south of the capital.

Syrian forces are pushing back from the border of Latakia province, a government stronghold, insurgent groups, some tied to the ceasefire, plus Al Nusra. These factions occupy Idlib province, which lies just north of Latakia and borders Turkey, the chief source of arms and foreign fighters.

Damascus’ aim is to secure Latakia province, its ports and the Russian air base from insurgent shelling and attack.

Latakia, Tartous and Banias are key ports on the Mediterranean coast on which Syria depends for imports of food and fuel.

Furthermore, Latakia and Tartous have offered refuge to Syrians fleeing the fighting in the interior, including members of the Aleppo business community.

Finally, government forces are seeking to contain insurgents grouped in the Daraa province-based Southern Command, which is bound by the ceasefire but also cooperates with Al Nusra.

It is particularly strong around Kuneitra and along the Golan front, where its fighters receive medical treatment in Israeli hospitals and enjoy rest and recreation in Israel.

It is hardly surprising that the HNC should claim the ceasefire is “null and void” because of Syrian army ground assaults and Russian air action against insurgents represented in the HNC.

The only way to avoid attack is for HNC groups to cut ties to and stand against Al Nusra, although, for some, it remains an essential ally.

Kerry has said ceasefire monitors plan to set up a “construct” to decide whether military operations target Al Nusra or Daesh, making them legitimate under the terms of the cessation of hostilities agreement. If not, monitors would complain there has been a violation of the ceasefire and confront the guilty parties somehow.

Punishment has not been defined. Once this “construct” is in place, the US cannot, logically, regard Al Nusra as “terrorist”, but continue to protect it from military action as, to a certain extent, Washington has done so far.