Israel shifts focus to Lebanon: A new front in the intelligence war

Israel has almost entirely shifted its focus to the open front on Lebanon's southern border. The headline of this shift is undoubtedly the recent intelligence operation targeting Hezbollah’s communication system. This was a highly sophisticated attack and is clearly part of a deep and complex operation with multiple goals and phases.

The detonation of pagers and then communication devices was not a routine targeting operation. In essence, this operation does not primarily aim to eliminate Hezbollah members but rather to create multi-level shockwaves, making it likely to be part of a phased and intricate plan.

Targeting Hezbollah’s intelligence system in this way places the group in a genuine existential test, not merely due to intelligence failures, but because of its operational, logistical and human repercussions. This strike could severely impact Hezbollah's ability to carry out military retaliation, disrupt its logistics, and even weaken its popular base. Striking the communication and intelligence system instils fear within Hezbollah's environment, creating long-lasting psychological and human burdens. This also fosters an atmosphere of mistrust within the party’s inner circles, which seems to be the primary goal of Israel at this stage.

The Israeli intelligence breach does not seem limited to the recent communication system operation but appears to be part of larger, long-standing intelligence penetrations, evident in the direct targeting of Hezbollah leaders in their stronghold in the southern suburbs of Beirut. The fact that Hezbollah did not respond directly or forcefully to the assassination of senior commander Foad Shukr “Haj Mohsen” has encouraged Israel to continue its strikes, escalating the confrontation with greater boldness.

The shift in Israeli priorities towards the Lebanese front began as the battles in Gaza subsided, and efforts to contain the escalation in the West Bank gained traction. This gradual de-escalation allowed Israel to intensify its focus on the Lebanese front. Contrary to fears of an open war, Israel has instead opted for intelligence-based confrontations, which allowed it to, for example, disable and destroy Hezbollah’s "pager" communication system. This disruption has undermined Hezbollah's operational capabilities without drawing Israel into a prolonged military engagement. Such complex intelligence operations benefit Israel by minimizing direct confrontation with Hezbollah and reducing the inevitable losses in the event of an all-out war. This tactic was also evident in Israel’s extensive operations targeting Hezbollah’s supply chains and infrastructure, aiming to paralyze the group’s operational capabilities without entangling itself in a costly, extended conflict.

Israel’s strategy to dismantle Hezbollah from within hinges primarily on leveraging the intelligence gathered over recent years. This goes beyond targeting individual leaders or strategic points. The aim is to create an internal crisis within Hezbollah by attacking its intelligence and communications backbone thereby instilling fear and chaos. This was precisely what Israel achieved following the pager operation, and later by targeting Hezbollah's communication systems. Israel has since escalated its operations, using its intelligence assets to strike Hezbollah’s top leadership during a highly secretive and high-level meeting at one of the group's most secure locations.

Israel’s current focus on Hezbollah, without distractions from other "unified front" theatres and the lack of an Iranian response, inevitably pushes Israel toward a more complex phase in confronting the group. Israel is unlikely to miss the opportunity to capitalize on Hezbollah’s operational paralysis following successive intelligence blows, leaving the group vulnerable and hesitant to act due to doubts about the extent of Israeli intelligence infiltration. However, Israel seems aware that Hezbollah might attempt to gain support from other fronts, potentially intensifying operations in Syria and Iraq. The transfer of fighters from Yemen and Iraq to Syria, for example, to open new fronts or assist Hezbollah in Lebanon, would potentially prompt Israel to adopt a pre-emptive strike strategy to maintain its singular focus on Hezbollah.