Jordan’s approach to HTS: Between caution and engagement

A logical approach for any Jordanian move toward Syria requires adapting to the new reality, reflecting the need to adjust to the evolving dynamics on the ground.

Gradual engagement with Syria appears to be a natural step, given the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the situation, which awaits the maturation of a comprehensive solution. 

This process requires the ability of Al Julani and his administration to unify conflicting parties and guide the country away from the brink of conflict towards stability.

While Hay’at Tahrir Al Sham (HTS) boasts considerable military strength, recent events have exposed its vulnerability to infiltration and internal fragmentation.

However, its ability to contain sectarian violence and maintain discipline within its ranks will be pivotal in determining the success of its efforts to unify factions. 

At the same time, the factors contributing to instability in Syria are escalating.

The frequency of clashes in regions like the coast, Homs, Hama and the outskirts of Damascus is increasing, as is the threat of confrontations with HTS. 

This situation does not, yet ,pose an existential threat to Syria’s overall stability. On the other hand, Turkey’s extensive military preparations to confront Kurdish forces remain the most prominent development, with the potential to ignite conflict across north-eastern Syria.

Such escalation could have ramifications beyond Syria’s borders, potentially spilling into Turkish territory as a natural response to Ankara’s offensive. 

Amid this complex landscape, Jordan’s primary focus is understandably centred on security. 

Amman continues to monitor developments in geographically sensitive areas along its northern border with Syria, particularly the tri-border region where Jordan, Syria and Iraq converge. 

Here, Daesh activity has been resurging noticeably, alongside movements by other groups such as Al Qaeda, which is striving to reestablish a foothold in the region from Syrian territory.

Additionally, the resurgence of organized crime networks in new forms and methods represents a shift in the nature of threats, with increased smuggling of drugs and weapons through emerging players. 

In response to these dangers, Jordan finds itself compelled to prioritise containing the diverse risks emanating from its borders.

This undoubtedly increases the security burden, necessitating a broader strategy that goes beyond merely protecting its borders.

Addressing the Syrian situation in its entirety, with all its new dimensions and complexities, is essential. Security measures must be paired with political flexibility to navigate the evolving landscape.

HTS’s rise to prominence in Syria’s political arena is neither a trivial matter nor one that can be handled lightly.

The paradoxes are striking, not least Al Julani’s appointment of a security chief once sought for affiliation with Al Qaeda, forcing intelligence agencies that once pursued him to now coordinate with him. 

Given the threat of regional crises spilling over, Jordanian strategic thinking becomes paramount.

Despite regional transformations and growing security risks, focusing on the domestic front is a pressing necessity.

The current phase requires strengthening ties with the Jordanian public by crafting a clear national narrative that highlights both challenges and opportunities. This entails modernising the bureaucratic framework to ensure greater efficiency and flexibility, fostering a sense of national unity, and reinforcing social cohesion.

These steps are not merely domestic priorities but strategic tools essential for enhancing Jordan’s ability to confront regional challenges and balance its approach to managing external and internal affairs effectively.