Geneva talks on Syria ‘must go forward’

UN envoy to Syria Staffan de Mistura must have the patience of the biblical figure Job, the tenaciousness of a limpet and the strength of Hercules if he is to succeed in bringing the proxy-warring and street-fighting parties in this Arab country together around the negotiating table any time soon.

In mid-November, a roadmap for ending the Syrian conflict was adopted by 17 foreign ministers plus international organisations meeting in Vienna.

In December, the UN Security Council adopted a resolution calling for the implementation of the Vienna plan, which involves ceasefires between government and opposition forces (excluding those of Al Qaeda’s Jabhat Al Nusra and Daesh) and talks between the government and the entire range of political opposition groups with the aim of forming a transitional authority that will draft a constitution and oversee elections.

At the beginning of this week, de Mistura wound up a regional tour after having received assurances from Iran and Saudi Arabia that their rivalry will not affect their participation in talks, set for January 25 in Geneva, or their support for the plan to end the Syrian war.

During his swing around the region, he met Iranian, Syrian and Saudi foreign ministers, and held consultations in Riyadh with defected Syrian prime minister Riad Hijab, head of the opposition negotiations committee formed in the Saudi capital last month.

Although he characterised his contacts as “useful”, de Mistura faces not only the Syrian government and its political and paramilitary opponents, but also the powers involved in the proxy war, feuding Iran and Saudi Arabia as well as Russia and the Western powers, Cold War antagonists, which are on the same side in the battle against Daesh but do not agree on if and when Syrian President Bashar Assad should step down.

De Mistura has to face the possibility that there are virtually scores of potential spoilers among the powers involved, competing opposition groups and rival fighters on the ground.

While Saudi Arabia said tensions with Iran should not threaten talks to end the Syrian war, Iran stated it would withdraw from talks if they are not “fruitful”, and accused Saudi Arabia of “playing a negative and unconstructive role”.

France called for Russia and the government to halt military operations against civilian areas without demanding the same of insurgent groups that seized urban centres and, in many cases, hold their inhabitants hostage.

The UN estimates that 400,000 Syrians are dwelling in areas to which there is difficult access for humanitarian organisations, more than 200,000 in territory controlled by Daesh in the north and east.

French President Francois Hollande and Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius insisted once again that Assad could not remain in office, prejudging the result of the negotiations and discouraging government participation.

US presidential staffers have adopted a more flexible approach by suggesting that Assad could remain in office until March 2017, after President Barack Obama steps down, and perhaps longer.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and his US counterpart John Kerry have reconfirmed their countries’ support for de Mistura’s efforts, which aim to reach a deal at Geneva.

To boost the prospects for negotiations, Russian President Vladimir Putin called for a new Syrian constitution, making it clear to Damascus that the document adopted during the conflict will not stand, while keeping Moscow’s option on Assad’s fate open.

Russia has consistently argued that Syrians, not outsiders, should decide their leadership.

However, potential negotiators have serious differences.

Speaking in Paris after a meeting with Hollande, Hijab said: “We cannot negotiate with the regime when there are foreign forces [in this case the Russians] bombing the Syrian people.”

It is unlikely that he would also ask the US-led coalition, which includes France, to halt its campaign against Daesh.

Hijab also refuses to name the 15-member opposition negotiating team chosen by his Riyadh-based committee to the consternation of the Syrian government, which argues that “terrorist” groups, including the Saudi-sponsored Army of Islam, cannot participate in talks.

A list of “terrorist” factions was meant to have been compiled by this time, but this seems to have fallen by the wayside due to opposition from powers supporting groups that might be included on the list.

The Syrian Democratic Council formed last month by US-backed secular Kurdish and Arab militias, and political bodies demands a separate seat at the negotiating table and rejects any possibility of inclusion in the Riyadh-appointed team.

Spokesman Haytham Mannaa argued: “… all components of the Syrian opposition have equal rights to participate in … negotiations.”

Mannaa, a longstanding Syrian political activist, insists that some members of the Riyadh group “are against a political solution and will come [to Geneva] just to sabotage the talks”.

Mannaa, a founding member of the National Coordination Board (NCB), a domestic opposition grouping, broke with its chief Hassan Abdul Azim who took part in the Riyadh gathering and provided a voice from inside Syria.

Other domestic opposition activists are certain to insist that they be invited to Geneva.

The Kurds boycotted the 2014 Geneva meetings because they refused to join opposition delegates attending as independents allied with the coalition because the coalition could not agree on whether or not to attend and who to send.

The Army of Islam, which has representatives on Hijab’s negotiations committee, put forward contradictory demands: anti-aircraft missiles to escalate its war effort, and government goodwill gestures, including a ceasefire, prisoner releases and an end to sieges of insurgent-held areas.

Another major fundamentalist grouping, Ahrar Al Sham, walked out of the Riyadh meeting because the Damascus-based NCB has a presence.

Ahrar Al Sham, which is allied with Jabhat Al Nusra in Idlib province, could become a major spoiler in the field — as could Al Nusra and Daesh.

Russia accused Turkey, criticised for aiding Daesh and other taqfiri factions, of continuing to allow reinforcements to cross from its territory into Idlib, largely under the control of the Army of Conquest, dominated by Al Nusra and Ahrar.

In spite of complications and spoilers, Geneva must go forward.

Syria and its people cannot endure yet another year of warfare, destruction and death.

Jordan, Lebanon and, to a lesser extent, Turkey cannot provide for fresh flows of refugees and Europe is struggling to accommodate the hundreds of thousands of Syrians who have arrived on its shores.