A ‘winning’ deal for all

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s demand that a deal over Iran’s nuclear programme must be conditioned on Tehran’s recognition of Israel’s “right to exist” — a “right” no other country claims — shows just how self-centred and out of touch the Israeli leader is.

US President Barack Obama promptly dismissed Netanyahu’s demand as a “fundamental misjudgement”, since this would require the transformation of “the nature” of the Iranian regime.

This will not happen any time soon while a comprehensive deal with Tehran is in reach within 82 days.

Nevertheless, Israel has put forward other unrealistic demands to be included in a deal while its supine supporters and anti-Iran hardliners in the US Congress and media continue to condemn the progress reached during the Lausanne negotiations involving Iran, the five permanent members of the UN Security Council — the US, France, Britain, China, Russia and Germany (P5+1).

Israel seems to think it is a member of the negotiating team, but this is not the case.

Furthermore, Congress, dominated by the majority Republicans, does not make US foreign policy. The president does, and the deal with Iran is a legacy Obama, who leaves office in January 2017, will not yield without a major battle.

Anticipating efforts to make a final deal on improvements in human rights in Iran, the campaign director of the Iran Human Rights Organisation, Hadi Ghaemi, said: “… at no time should Iran’s human rights record be used as a tool to undermine” the framework agreement reached on April 2 and the efforts to reach a full accord by the end of June.

“The human rights community and civil society in Iran stand strongly for a negotiated settlement of this longstanding conflict.”

The negotiations and the accord are two major gains for Iran.

During the past 18 months, Iran has been negotiating with six powers that have for decades shunned and ostracised it.

By talking at length to its affable Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, the six powers have brought Iran in from “the cold”.

Iran is no longer isolated and ostracised.

US Secretary of State John Kerry has even expressed the desire to visit Iran in the future, and there is talk of reopening the US embassy in Tehran — although this is certain to take time.

Unlike Israel, which is estimated to have 200-300 nuclear devices, and more recent entrants into the world’s second “nuclear club”, North Korea, India and Pakistan, Iran is a signatory of the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and its Additional Protocol that specifies intrusive monitoring.

Furthermore, Iran has agreed to even more aggressive control measures than those called for the in Additional Protocol.

However, until the Lausanne deal was concluded, Iran’s nuclear programme was not granted “legitimacy” by the P+5 — the members of the original “nuclear club”.

“Legitimacy”, the right to, eventually, be treated as other NPT signatories are treated, was a major gain for Iran.

At long last, the international community has recognised Iran’s “right”, granted under the NPT, to enrich uranium on its own soil and to retain equipment needed to carry out enrichment to the level used by nuclear power plants and medical facilities.

The P5+1 have also made strategic gains.

They have laid down severe restrictions that are to be imposed on Iran’s nuclear programme for a decade, with some measures continuing for 25 years and more.

Iran has agreed to reduce by more than two-thirds its 19,000 installed centrifuges used to purify uranium.

Tehran will keep only 6,104.

The core of the Arak reactor will be removed and the once clandestine Fordow site will be turned into a research centre producing medical isotopes.

Only first-generation centrifuges will be permitted. 

The majority will be sealed and stored under the supervision of the International Atomic Energy Agency whose inspectors will have freedom to carry out constant monitoring.

Iran will dilute, sell or transform 97 per cent of its large stockpile of 20 per cent and 5 per cent enriched uranium into nuclear fuel, leaving Iran with 300 kilogrammes.

IAEA has also been empowered to examine Iran’s past nuclear weponisation work, terminated in 2003.

The Lausanne framework was a winning deal for Iran, the P5+1, Iran’s trading partners and potential investors in Iran.

Once the IAEA confirms that Iran has carried out all its obligations, the European Union is meant to “terminate” all nuclear-connected economic and financial sanctions, including the oil embargo.

The US is due to follow suit.

A UN Security Council resolution will “terminate all previous nuclear-related resolutions” but retain certain “restrictive measures”.

If Iran fails to implement the terms of the detailed final agreement, sanctions would be reimposed.

Sanctions have to be lifted simultaneously because phased easing would make it difficult for banks and insurance firms to resume operations involving Iran and for Iran to engage in foreign trade.

It is assumed that it will take Iran some months to carry out its obligations, postponing the lifting of sanctions until IAEA can verify its compliance with the final agreement.

Once sanctions are lifted, Iran will resume shipment to its major oil customers, including China, India and South Korea, which have cut purchases from Iran.

Iran will be able to access $100 billion in frozen funds, $9 billion owned by India and $25 billion by China.

Once in funds, Iran will be ready to conclude contracts with Western multinationals seeking to upgrade Iran’s oil sector.

Iran will also be able to export freely produced and manufactured goods, including pistachios and carpets.

While anti-Iran figures warn that Iran could “cheat” and fail to meet its obligations, Iran is certain to be under massive domestic pressure to carry out every provision of the comprehensive agreement.

If Iran had not been under sanctions, the country’s economy would have been 20 per cent larger than it is at present.

The economy is currently in deep trouble. Oil revenues, Iran’s main source of revenue, have fallen by 59 per cent.

Iranians suffer 16 per cent inflation — down from 45 per cent — and high unemployment, particularly among the young.

Therefore, economic factors are likely to ensure compliance.

Iranians have suffered enough from sanctions and want to celebrate economic revival as well as re-entry into the community of nations.