Region

BAGHDAD — Iraq's federal authorities and the cash-strapped Kurdish regional government (KRG) have relaunched talks over longstanding oil and budget disputes, but observers are sceptical they will reach a genuine diplomatic reset.

Here are a few questions and answers to clarify the complex issue. 

What's the dispute?

Ties between Baghdad and Erbil have long been strained, amid federal fears the energy-rich Kurdish autonomous region would seek independence. 

They plunged sharply in 2014 when the KRG began exporting oil directly to Turkey, taking advantage of the chaos sparked by the Daesh group's onslaught. 

Under a deal mediated by then-oil minister Adel Abdul Mahdi, the KRG agreed to export oil through Iraq's State Oil Marketing Company (SOMO) in exchange for resuming the receipt of its share of the federal budget. 

But it has never been fully implemented, with Erbil demanding larger budget allocations and both sides trading accusations over unfulfilled terms.

The relationship soured even further when Kurds voted overwhelmingly in favour of secession in 2017.

What's the current state of play? 

Iraq's 2019 budget stipulates the KRG must export 250,000 barrels per day of oil through SOMO and hand other crude revenues to Baghdad in exchange for around 12 per cent of the budget, or $8.2 billion.

In a first, the budget stipulates Baghdad will pay KRG's salaries regardless of whether other terms are honoured.

Baghdad has been paying those salaries but not the rest of the allocation because the KRG has continued directly exporting up to 500,000 bpd to Turkey.

In July, the KRG’s new prime minister, Masrour Barzani, met Adel Abdul Mahdi, now premier of Iraq, to form technical committees to tackle the disputes.

“Barzani was almost in a rush, which is a good sign,” said an Iraqi official with knowledge of the file. 

Why does Iraqi Kurdistan want talks? 

The main reason appears to be a looming economic crisis: Barzani said the region was $14 billion in debt, but the real number could be double that, experts estimate. 

The KRG has a bloated public sector, budgeting a record $8.9 billion in 2019 for some 1.2 million state employees, many of whom are suspected of being “ghost workers”. 

It will earn a net estimate of $3.5 billion in oil sales this year and is set to receive $4.6 billion from Baghdad in salary payments, according to the federal budget. 

The gap leaves the region in “dire straits”, forcing it to postpone public salary payments by several months, said Ahmad Tabaqchali of the Sulaymaniyah-based Institute of Regional and International Studies, who carried out a comprehensive study of the budget dispute.

“The oil issue needs to be resolved because that’s killing the KRG’s economy,” said Sarkawt Shamsaddin, an Iraqi MP who hails from the Kurdish region and follows the file. 

“People aren’t sure by the end of the month if they’re getting paid. It affects salaries, investments, and more,” he added. 

The KRG is optimistic, Shamsaddin said, as Abdul Mahdi is “sympathetic and has a history of dealing with the Kurds”.

What about federal authorities? 

For his part, Abdul Mahdi hopes a lasting agreement could grant him more solid political footing than the tenuous parliamentary alliance that brought him to power last year.

“One of Abdel Mahdi’s natural allies may be the KRG,” said Tabaqchali. 

“He knows he can’t depend on the two rival factions. He needs to secure the third leg of the stool,” he said.

Could there be a real reset? 

Despite apparent good will, the differences may be far too entrenched and even existential for a genuine compromise.

“There’s a basis for dialogue, but there’s no decision to actually resolve the issue,” a government source in the disputed territory of Kirkuk told AFP. 

“It’s a national cause, full of political disputes between all sides, plus regional and international interference.”

Stakeholders include global energy companies, the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, and allied states like the US, whose officials have urged Baghdad and Erbil to reconcile. 

But Ruba Husari, an analyst at the Iraq Oil Forum, said talks were at “a dead-end”. 

“Any new agreement would only be temporary and suffer the same flaws as its predecessor,” she told AFP.

On the one hand, she said, the KRG fiercely rejects federal control of its borders, oil or revenue.

Meanwhile, “Baghdad does not speak in one language to the Kurds and does not have a state policy,” Husari said.

Even if Abdul Mahdi negotiated a deal, he will struggle to convince his parliamentary opponents to endorse it as many MPs have slammed him for being too lenient towards the KRG.

KHARTOUM — Sudanese police fired tear gas Sunday at scores of protesters demanding an independent probe into a deadly June raid on a Khartoum sit-in, despite an investigation identifying eight officers it said were involved.

The joint probe by prosecutors and Sudan's ruling military council showed that security forces, including a general from the feared paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), took part in the June 3 raid on the protest camp — despite having no orders from their superiors to do so.

The eight accused officers face charges of crimes against humanity, chief investigator Fattah Al Rahman Saeed told reporters on Saturday.

But protest leaders rejected the findings of the investigation, saying it exonerated the military council and gave a far lower death toll than their own figures.

Doctors linked to the protest movement say the June 3 raid left 127 people dead and scores wounded. 

Saeed said investigators found that just 17 people were killed on June 3, while a total of 87 died between that day and June 10.

The Sudanese Professionals Association, the key protest group which first spearheaded the campaign against now ousted leader Omar Al Bashir, rejected the probe.

Saeed’s inquiry “was commissioned by the military council, this is challenging its integrity as the military council itself is accused in this case,” it said.

On Sunday, scores of protesters chanting the months-long protest movement’s catchcry of “Freedom, peace, justice!” rallied in Khartoum’s eastern Burri district, witnesses said, adding that riot police swiftly dispersed the crowd with tear gas.

Some protesters threw stones at the police, the witnesses said.

The country’s ruling generals have insisted they did not order the dispersal of the sit-in, which protesters had set up on April 6 to demand the army’s support in toppling longtime leader Omar Al Bashir.

Bashir was ousted on April 11, but protesters stayed at the protest camp to demand that the military council which replaced him cede power to civilians.

General Mohamed Hamdan Daglo, who heads the RSF and is also the ruling military council’s deputy chief, has consistently denied that his men were involved in the crackdown, which triggered international outrage.

But Saeed said an RSF general had ordered a colonel to disperse the sit-in as a separate security force was clearing a nearby area known as Colombia.

“They led the forces... inside the sit-in area and ordered them to get down from their vehicles and whip the protesters,” Saeed said.

TEHRAN — Iran on Sunday slammed as “provocative” a British proposal for a European-led naval mission to escort tankers in the Gulf, amid soaring tensions over the seizure of ships.

“We heard that they intend to send a European fleet to the Persian Gulf which naturally carries a hostile message, is provocative and will increase tensions,” said government spokesman Ali Rabiei.

Britain said on Monday it was planning a European-led force to escort tankers through the world's busiest oil shipping lane, the Strait of Hormuz, in response to Iran's seizure of a UK-flagged vessel on July 19.

The capture of the Stena Impero came two weeks after British authorities detained an Iranian tanker — the Grace 1 — off its overseas territory Gibraltar, on allegations it was breaching EU sanctions on Syria.

In his comments on Sunday, the government spokesman said Iran believed the security of the oil-rich Gulf had to be maintained by countries in the region.

“We are the biggest agent of maritime security in the Persian Gulf,” Rabiei said, quoted by ISNA news agency.

Iran's President Hassan Rouhani said a force like that proposed by the UK would only make matters worse. 

“The presence of foreign forces will not help the region's security and will be the main source of tensions,” Rouhani said after talks in Tehran with Oman's minister in charge of foreign affairs, Yusuf bin Alawi.

Alawi said the Sultanate, which maintains cordial ties with both Iran and Britain, was not mediating on the issue.

But he said Muscat was “concerned” about security in the Strait and was “in contact with all parties”. 

“Any error or miscalculated move could hamper navigation in international waters and harm everyone,” he told state broadcaster Oman TV after meeting with Rouhani.

Britain on Thursday ordered its navy to escort UK-flagged ships through the Strait, where the Stena Impero was seized by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

 High-seas standoff 

But it has so far only received a cool response from the continent to its proposal for a multi-national escort fleet that would exclude the United States.

France said on Thursday it was not willing to send extra military assets to the Gulf, but would share information and coordinate its currently deployed assets.

The US military has said it is already monitoring the area and developing a “multinational maritime effort” dubbed Operation Sentinel to increase surveillance and security in key Middle East waterways.

The 33-kilometre wide Strait of Hormuz provides the eastern entrance and exit point into the Gulf and runs between the United Arab Emirates and Iran.

Iran's high-seas standoff with Britain comes amid rising hostilities between the Islamic republic and the United States.

The arch-enemies have been locked in a battle of nerves since President Donald Trump withdrew the US from a landmark 2015 deal aimed at limiting Iran's nuclear programme and began reimposing sanctions.

The situation has worsened since the Trump administration stepped up a campaign of “maximum pressure” against Iran this year, with drones downed and tankers mysteriously attacked in Gulf waters.

Rouhani said Washington sparked the crisis when it pulled out of the 2015 nuclear deal, known by its formal name, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

“The unfortunate incidents and tensions in the region today have their roots in the unilateral US withdrawal from the JCPOA agreement and the delusions of the country's administration,” the Iranian president said.

“Iran will strongly stand against any wrongdoing and illegal activity that would threaten maritime security in the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz and the Sea of Oman,” ISNA quoted him as saying.

RABAT — King Mohammed VI is preparing to mark 20 years on the throne of Morocco, a North African country seen as a regional island of stability.

The kingdom's towns and cities have been decked out with flags to mark the anniversary on Tuesday, while newspapers have published editorials praising the monarch's achievements.

But recent weeks have also seen a wave of criticism over the “Moroccan decline”, with commentators citing economic stagnation and its crippling effects on the young.

When he took the throne in 1999 following the death of his father Hassan II, the then-35-year-old inspired great expectations, earning the nickname “king of the poor”".

In his first speech as king he listed the ills facing the country: poverty, unemployment and social inequality.

Twenty years later, those same ills haunt the kingdom, where news magazine Maroc Hebdo recently ran the headline “It's better not to be Moroccan in 2019”.

The article slammed “the persistence of unemployment..., the slow pace of structural change and the deepening of inequalities”, along with the dearth of opportunities for the young who make up a third of the 35 million population.

Royal adviser Omar Azziman, in a rare interview with AFP, admitted that there was “dissatisfaction” in the country.

“We can't find jobs for our young people, we have regions that are too poor,” he said. 

As the Arab Spring swept across North Africa and beyond, Mohammed VI nipped swelling protests in the bud by offering up constitutional reforms and promising to curb his powers.

The country's long-marginalised Rif region was rocked by months of protests from late 2016, sparked by the death of a fisherman and spiralling into a movement demanding more development and railing against corruption and unemployment.

Several hundred protesters are thought to have been arrested and tried in connection with the demonstrations, but no official figures are available. 

 ‘Enormous changes’ 

While the king has pardoned around 250 of them, rights groups saw authorities' response to the Hirak protest movement as a step backwards.

Amnesty International regularly denounces “arbitrary” arrests and detentions in Morocco and raises doubts over the fairness of its judicial system.

“There hasn't really been any democratisation, more a form of liberalisation,” said prominent academic and rights activist Maati Monjib. 

“We saw a period of opening up, but it corresponded to a dynastic transition aimed at maintaining an executive monarchy.”

But according to Abdellatif Menouni, a constitutional scholar and royal adviser since 2011, under Mohammed VI “most of [what is needed] in terms of democracy has been done, it just needs to be deepened”.

For analyst Mohamed Tozi, Morocco's stability in a tumultuous region is a key performance indicator given the regional context.

He cited a 2004 family law boosting women's rights, commissions set up to probe abuses under Hassan II and the existence of political parties as “enormous changes”.

But despite that, seven out of ten young Moroccans, seeing few prospects, say they want to emigrate, according to the Arab Barometer survey.

The International Monetary Fund has urged the kingdom to move towards a “more inclusive” model of development and tackle inequality, saying it had been slow to push through reforms.

Mohammed VI, who retains control over the country's most strategic sectors, has overseen an economic strategy focused on attracting foreign investment, from roads and airports to the vast Tanger Med port.

KHARTOUM — A probe into a deadly June raid on a Khartoum protest camp revealed Saturday that a feared Sudanese paramilitary group was involved in the crackdown that killed scores and sparked international outrage.

Shortly before dawn on June 3, gunmen in military fatigues raided the site of a weeks-long sit-on outside army headquarters, shooting and beating protesters in an operation that also left hundreds wounded.

Demonstrators and rights groups had accused the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) of carrying out the crackdown, a charge denied by the group's powerful chief, General Mohamed Hamdan Daglo.

But a joint probe by prosecutors and the ruling military council revealed on Saturday that RSF paramilitaries were involved in the raid.

Crowds of protesters had camped out at the site from April 6 onwards, initially to seek the army's support in toppling longtime leader Omar Al Bashir.

Bashir was ousted on April 11, but protesters pressed on with the sit-in, demanding that the military council which replaced him cede power to civilians.

Fatah Al Rahman Saeed, a prosecutor who headed the investigation, said orders had been given to security forces to clear an area called Colombia, near the protest camp.

But, he said, an RSF general had separate ordered a colonel to disperse the sit-in, despite having no such order from further up the chain of command.

"They led the forces... inside the sit-in area and ordered them to get down from their vehicles and whip the protesters," Saeed told reporters.

Saeed identified the RSF general who allegedly ordered the raid by his initials A.S.A., and the colonel as A.A.M.

"It is clear to the committee that General A.S.A issued an order to Colonel A.A.M to deploy anti-riot forces of the RSF to break up the sit-in", Saeed said.

‘Forces disobeyed orders’ 

The country’s ruling generals have insisted they did not order the dispersal of the protest camp, but had ordered an operation including RSF and other security forces limited to clearing Colombia, citing drug dealing and violence in the area.

“The area had become a security threat which forced the authorities to take proper measures to clear it,” Saeed said on Saturday.

Saeed said an RSF captain, identified as H.B.A, was involved in clearing Colombia but later took part in dispersing the sit-in.

He said another group of security personnel who were also involved in clearing Colombia “disobeyed orders and entered the sit-in area”.

They “removed barricades, fired tear gas and fired intense and random bullets that led to the killing and wounding of protesters and the burning of tents,” Saeed said.

Days after the raid, rights group Amnesty International said that members of “RSF are responsible for... the ongoing bloody crackdown on protesters in Khartoum since 3 June”.

“The RSF swept into protest sites and opened fire on unarmed people,” it said.

Doctors linked to the protest movement say 127 people were killed during the raid.

Authorities have given several tolls, all of them much lower.

Pending issues 

The sit-in raid caused the collapse of talks between protest leaders and Sudan’s ruling generals, which did not resume until weeks later, after intense mediaton by African Union and Ethiopian diplomats.

The two sides have now agreed to form a joint civilian-military ruling body for a transitional period of 39 months.

This governing body would then install an overall civilian administration as demanded by demonstrators, who still insist on a separate independent investigation into the June 3 raid.

Although the generals and protest leaders have signed a power sharing deal, several issues are still pending — including justice for demonstrators killed since the first December protests against Bashir.