Region

TUNIS — Snubbed by voters in the first round of Tunisia's presidential election, the Islamist-inspired Ennahdha Party must overcome an "identity crisis" to secure its political future in upcoming legislative polls, experts say.

Last week saw the first round of the country's second free presidential elections since the 2011 ouster of ruler Zine Al Abidine Ben Ali, who died in exile days after the poll.

It was the first time Ennahdha has contested the presidency, putting forward as its candidate interim speaker of parliament Abdelfattah Mourou, who is seen as a moderate and advocates more openness in the party.

Mourou came third with 434,000 votes — 12.88 per cent — a disappointing result for the largest party in parliament.

That compared with 1.5 million votes won by Ennahdha in 2011 in the country's first free election, for a constituent assembly, that marked the party's political comeback.

Ennahdha was not alone in its recent setback.

All the candidates who have been at the forefront of the political scene in recent years, such as Prime Minister Youssef Chahed, were also knocked back in the first round.

The vote reshaped the political landscape, as two outsiders came out ahead, having campaigned against the system: constitutional law professor Kais Saied and imprisoned media mogul Nabil Karoui.

 'Identity crisis' 

After failing to reach the presidential run off, the stakes are high for Ennahdha in October 6 legislative polls.

In an attempt to entice its base, on Friday the party pledged its support for Saied, who is considered socially conservative and siphoned off many of its votes, particularly among young Tunisians.

Ennahdha "could not support Nabil Karoui because it has already been accused by its base of having worked within the system to the detriment of its principles", said political scientist Slaheddine Jourchi.

Ennahdha governed as part of a coalition with the Nidaa Tounes Party, which Karoui helped found and which won 2014 elections on an anti-Islamist platform but later splintered.

For political scientist Hamza Meddeb, the decline of Ennahdha can be explained by internal conflicts within the movement over its direction.

By participating in the coalition and "acquiescing to neoliberal economic policies" that did not lower unemployment or prices, Ennahdha "lost its ability to activate socio-economic reform and anticorruption arguments to rebuild its legitimacy and support base", Meddeb said in a report for Carnegie Middle East Centre published in early September.

Since Ennahdha made the "landmark" decision in 2016 to "abandon preaching and focus on politics" the party has experienced "an identity crisis", he said.

By focusing on building support on a foundation beyond religion, Ennahdha must now regain legitimacy by positioning itself as "an effective governing force and propose viable policy solutions to Tunisia's social and economic challenges", he added.

 Election challenge 

As an indication of its internal shake up, Ennahdha — one of Tunisia's most structured parties, where disagreements rarely surface — in recent months has seen a series of resignations and public challenges to its candidate choices for the legislative and presidential elections.

Lotfi Zitoun, advisor to the head of Ennahdha Rached Ghannouchi, announced his resignation in July, a decision triggered, according to local media reports, by a conflict over the strategic choices of the movement.

Zoubeir Shehoudi, former director of Ghannouchi's Cabinet, also resigned, calling for the departure of the old guard and lamenting that "Ennahdha, now a normal party, integrated in the system and mechanisms of the state, has become incapable of finding social and economic solutions".

In view of the fact that 15 to 20 per cent of pro-Ennahdha youth did not vote for Mourou, Ghannouchi, himself a candidate in a heavily disputed Tunis constituency, has called for mass mobilisation for the October legislative vote.

Ennahdha hopes to keep its 69 seats in the 217-seat parliament.

The change in the electoral calendar to bring forward the presidential election after the death of president Beji Caid Essebsi posed an extra challenge.

The presidential poll pushed the legislative elections, for which Ennahdha is better armed, into the background.

And this vote, three weeks after the first round of the presidential election, could see voters reinforce the first-round anti-system choices.

"Maybe Ennahdha will lose big... maybe the party will even lose its position at the heart of power," said Jourchi.

TEHRAN — Any country that attacks Iran will become the "main battlefield", the Revolutionary Guards warned Saturday after Washington ordered reinforcements to the Gulf following attacks on Saudi oil installations it blames on Tehran.

Tensions escalated between arch-foes Iran and the United States after last weekend's attacks on Saudi energy giant Aramco's Abqaiq processing plant and Khurais oilfield halved the kingdom's oil output.

Yemen's Houthi rebels have claimed responsibility for the strikes but the US says it has concluded the attacks involved cruise missiles from Iran and amounted to "an act of war".

Washington approved the deployment of troops to Saudi Arabia at "the kingdom's request", Defence Secretary Mark Esper said, noting the forces would be "defensive in nature" and focused on air and missile defence.

But Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander Major General Hossein Salami said Iran was "ready for any type of scenario".

"Whoever wants their land to become the main battlefield, go ahead," he told a news conference in Tehran.

“We will never allow any war to encroach upon Iran’s territory.

“We hope that they don’t make a strategic mistake”, he said, listing past US military “adventures” against Iran.

In Riyadh, the Saudi minister of state for foreign affairs, Adel Al Jubeir, warned of “appropriate measures” once the source of the strikes on its oil facilities was confirmed.

“We have asked the United Nations to do an investigation and there are also other countries involved in the probe,” he told a press conference.

“We are sure the attack was not launched from Yemen, but from the north. 

“When it [the probe] is completed, we will take the appropriate procedures to deal with this aggression,” said Jubeir, without specifying.

‘Act of war’ 

Iran’s Salami, for his part, was speaking at Tehran’s Islamic Revolution and Holy Defence museum during the unveiling of an exhibition of what Iran says are US and other drones captured in its territory.

It featured a badly damaged drone with US military markings said to be an RQ-4 Global Hawk that Iran downed in June, as well as an RQ-170 Sentinel captured in 2011 and still intact.

The Guard also displayed the domestically manufactured Khordad 3 air defence battery they say was used to shoot down the Global Hawk.

“What are your drones doing in our airspace? We will shoot them down, shoot anything that encroaches on our airspace,” said Salami.

His remarks came only days after the strikes on Saudi oil facilities claimed by Yemen’s Houthis, but the US says it has concluded the attack involved cruise missiles from Iran and amounted to “an act of war”.

Saudi Arabia, which has been bogged down in a five-year war across its southern border in Yemen, has said Iran “unquestionably sponsored” the attacks.

The kingdom says the weapons used in the attacks were Iranian-made, but it has stopped short of directly blaming its regional rival.

“Sometimes they talk of military options,” Salami said, apparently referring to the Americans.

Yet he warned that “a limited aggression will not remain limited” as Iran was determined to respond and would “not rest until the aggressor’s collapse”.

‘Crushing response’ 

The Guard’ aerospace commander said the US ought to learn from its past failures and abandon its hostile rhetoric.

“We’ve stood tall for the past 40 years and if the enemy makes a mistake, it will certainly receive a crushing response,” Brigadier General Amirali Hajizadeh said.

The United States upped the ante on Friday by announcing new sanctions against Iran’s central bank, with President Donald Trump calling the measures the toughest America has ever imposed on another country.

Washington has imposed a series of sanctions against Tehran since unilaterally pulling out of a landmark 2015 nuclear deal in May last year.

It already maintains sweeping sanctions on Iran’s central bank, but the US Treasury said Friday’s designation was over the regulator’s work in funding “terrorism”.

Also on Saturday, Iran denied its oil infrastructure had been successfully attacked by a cyber operation, after reports of disruptions to the sector online.

“Contrary to Western media claims, investigations done today show no successful cyberattack was made on the country’s oil installations and other crucial infrastructure,” the government’s cybersecurity office said.

The statement did not specify which reports it was addressing.

CAIRO — Protests erupted overnight in Cairo and other Egyptian cities calling for the removal of President Abdel Fattah El Sisi, in a rare show of dissent quickly quashed by authorities.

Hundreds of Egyptians took to the streets late Friday, chanting slogans including "Leave, Sisi!" and demanding the "fall of the regime".

At least 74 people were arrested, a security source told AFP, with plain clothed police patrolling sidestreets of downtown Cairo. 

After overnight clashes with the protesters, security forces on Saturday maintained tight control of Tahrir Square — the epicentre of the 2011 revolution that unseated long-time leader Hosni Mubarak.

The country effectively banned protests under a 2013 law and a state of emergency is still in full effect.

"I think it's safe to say that the events of the past few weeks, including the development last night, pose the most serious legitimacy crisis facing Sisi," Nael Shama, a Cairo-based political analyst, told AFP.

The protests came on the back of an online call put out by Mohamed Ali, a disgruntled exiled Egyptian businessman, demanding Sisi be toppled.

The construction contractor has been posting videos from Spain that have gone viral since early September, accusing Sisi and the military of rampant corruption.

The president flatly denied the allegations last week at a youth conference and sought to assure Egyptians that he "was honest and faithful" to his people and the military.

In Ali's latest video posted early Friday morning on his growing social media accounts, he urged Egyptians to head to the streets after a highly anticipated Super Cup football match between Cairo powerhouses Al Ahly and Zamalek.

"No one shouted bread, freedom, social justice like in 2011, they escalated straight to 'Leave' from the first minute", Shama noted.

Thousands shared footage on social media documenting the demonstrations, which sprang up in several cities including sizeable crowds blocking traffic in Alexandria, Al Mahalla, Damietta, Mansoura and Suez.

Shama, who wrote a book on Egypt’s foreign policy, said the “totally organic” nature of the small-scale protests was “unprecedented”.

“This is the first time people take to the streets in many years but I am not sure it will be the last,” he added.

‘Ball in government court’ 

Sisi led the military ouster of former Islamist president Mohamed Morsi in 2013 and won back-to-back landslide elections after running virtually unopposed.

He has regularly invoked security and stability as hallmarks of his reign in contrast to the situations in regional hot spots such as Iraq, Libya and Syria.

During last week’s youth conference, Sisi again took the opportunity to warn of the dangers of protesting.

On television Friday night, boisterous and pro-Sisi host Amr Adib lambasted Aly, the businessman, showing footage of him allegedly in a drunken stupor.

Adib urged his fellow countrymen to “take care of the country... because the Muslim Brotherhood want to raze it to the ground”.

The Islamist group, once considered one of Egypt’s most organised political forces, was outlawed as a terror group in 2013 after Morsi’s overthrow.

Egyptians quickly took to social media to criticise Adib, a vocal backer of Mubarak during the 2011 revolution, for dismissing the protesters as “people against the country”.

Discontent over rising prices has been swelling in Egypt, where Sisi’s government has imposed strict austerity measures since 2016 as part of a $12-billion loan package from the International Monetary Fund. 

Nearly one in three Egyptians live below the poverty line on less than $1.40 a day, according to official figures released in July.

Human Rights Watch urged Egyptian authorities on Saturday to “protect the right” to protest peacefully and demanded that those arrested be released. 

Sisi flew Friday night to New York, where he is scheduled to address the UN General Assembly next week. 

The president’s office did not comment on the protests, when asked by AFP on Saturday.

“Now the ball is in the government’s court,” said Shama, the analyst. “They have to respond somehow.” 

SANAA — Yemen's Houthi rebels unexpectedly announced late Friday that they planned to halt all attacks on Saudi Arabia as part of a peace initiative to end their country's devastating conflict, five years after they captured the capital Sanaa.

The announcement comes after a wave of drone strikes last weekend on Saudi oil installations knocked out half of the kingdom's production and sent shock waves through energy markets. 

The Iran-backed Houthis claimed responsibility for the attacks, but Riyadh’s ally Washington has condemned them as an “act of war”, placing the blame on Tehran and announcing new sanctions against the Islamic republic.

Mehdi Al Mashat, head of the Houthis’ supreme political council, announced in a speech marking the 2014 rebel seizure of Sanaa “the halt of all attacks against the territory of Saudi Arabia”.

He added that he hoped “the gesture would be answered by a stronger gesture” from the Saudis, according to the rebels’ Al Masirah television channel. 

“Pursuing war is not in anyone’s interest.”

Yemen’s conflict has since killed tens of thousands of people — most of them civilians — and driven millions more to the brink of famine in what the United Nations calls the world’s worst humanitarian crisis.

‘Blood of Yemenis’ 

Mashat said the Houthis’ peace initiative was aimed at “bringing about peace through serious negotiations to achieve a comprehensive national reconciliation which does not exclude anyone”.

A major goal was to “preserve the blood of Yemenis and achieve a general amnesty”, he added.

The plan calls for rebels to “stop all attacks on Saudi territory by drones, ballistic missiles and other means”, he said.

He also called for the reopening of Sanaa’s international airport and open access to Yemen’s Red Sea port of Hodeida, a crucial entry point for imports and humanitarian aid.

The announcement was a sharp reversal from previous statements from the Houthis, who early on Friday had accused Saudi Arabia and its allies of endangering the fragile truce around Hodeida with strikes on four rebel targets north of the port. 

The Houthis have been fighting against a Saudi-led coalition that intervened in 2015 to support the country’s internationally recognised government.

Iran denies US and Saudi accusations that it arms the Houthis.

The rebels have repeatedly targeted key Saudi infrastructure in recent months in cross-border attacks.

The September 14 aerial attacks sparked fires at two Aramco oil facilities in eastern Saudi Arabia knocking out 6 per cent of global supplies.

It is the third attack in five months on the oil giant’s infrastructure, after the Houthis also claimed strikes in May and August.

Saudi Arabia has so far not directly accused any party of carrying out Saturday’s attacks, but said authorities have launched an investigation to determine the culprits.

Tehran has denied responsibility for the attacks against the heart of Saudi’s all-important oil industry, raising the spectre of “all-out war” in the event of retaliatory measures by Washington or Riyadh.

The rhetoric has raised the risk of an unpredictable escalation in a tinderbox region where Saudi Arabia and Iran are locked in a decades-old struggle for dominance.

ANKARA — Turkey's preparations on the border with Syria ahead of a possible operation have been completed, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Saturday ahead of talks with US counterpart Donald Trump.

After a US-Turkey deal agreed last month to create a buffer zone in north-eastern Syria, Erdogan warned Washington that Ankara expected to see results otherwise the Turkish military would target a US-backed Kurdish militia.

"Our preparations along the border have been completed," Erdogan told reporters in Istanbul ahead of his flight to New York for the United Nations General Assembly.

He has given the US until the end of the month for concrete results on the development of a "safe zone" on Turkey's border, after which Turkey will go in.

Trump and Erdogan will discuss the matter when the Turkish leader is in New York.

Although earlier this month, the NATO allies launched joint patrols in northeastern Syria, Turkish officials have described the US actions as "cosmetic" and warned against delays.

There were also air patrols by Turkish and American military helicopters, state news agency Anadolu reported on Saturday.

The zone is intended to move the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) militia away from the Turkish border.

Erdogan has also said up to three million Syrian refugees could be returned to the zone from Europe and Turkey, where more than 3.6 million fled to.

The continued support of the US for the YPG has strained relations with Turkey, which Erdogan again criticised during the press conference.

Ankara says the YPG is a "terrorist" offshoot of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which has waged an insurgency against the Turkish state since 1984.

The PKK is blacklisted as a terror group by Ankara and its Western allies.

"We have no desire to get into a confrontation with the US," said Erdogan.

"But we do not have the luxury to ignore the support that the United States is giving to terror organisations.”

Turkey launched operations in northern Syria against the Daesh extremist group in 2016 and against the YPG in early 2018.

SANAA — Impoverished Yemen has been mired in a devastating conflict since Iran-backed fighters overran the capital Sanaa five years ago prompting Saudi Arabia and its allies to launch a military intervention the following year.

Here is a broad overview:

Sanaa falls 

On July 8, 2014, Houthi rebels from the country's Zaidi Shiite minority launch an offensive from their northern stronghold of Saada.

In September, they enter Sanaa, seizing the government headquarters. Days later, rebel leader Abdelmalek Al Houthi hails the "victory" of a "popular revolution".

The rebels ally themselves with military units loyal to ex-president Ali Abdullah Saleh, who was forced to quit after a 2011 uprising.

In October, they capture the Red Sea port of Hodeida, a crucial entry point for imports and humanitarian aid.

In January 2015, they seize the presidential palace in Sanaa, after heavy fighting, and surround the residence of President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi, who flees to the southern port of Aden.

Riyadh enters war 

A coalition led by Sunni-ruled Saudi Arabia, a bitter rival of Shiite Iran, enters the conflict in March 2015 with air strikes on the rebels.

Around a dozen countries form part of the coalition, including five from the Gulf. Washington says it contributes logistics and intelligence.

As the rebels advance southwards on Aden, Hadi flees, taking refuge in Saudi Arabia.

By August, pro-government forces have retaken five southern provinces. In October, they announce they have retaken control of the Bab Al Mandab Strait, a key waterway for international shipping.

Splits emerge in the rebel camp in 2017 and Saleh is assassinated in December by his former Houthi allies.

Battle for aid port 

In June 2018, government fighters, backed by Saudi and Emirati ground forces, launch an offensive to retake the port of Hodeida.

UN-brokered talks between the warring parties open in Sweden in December, yielding a series of breakthroughs including a ceasefire in Hodeida where combat largely ceases.

In May 2019, the UN announces the rebels have withdrawn from Hodeida and two other nearby ports, the first practical step on the ground since the truce deal.

Southern separatists 

The anti-Houthi camp is also divided, notably in the south where fighting between separatists and unionist forces loyal to the government threatens to create "a civil war within a civil war".

South Yemen was an independent state until it united with the north in 1990, and separatists remain powerful.

In January 2018, heavy fighting breaks out in Aden between unionist forces and separatists.

In August 2019, deadly new clashes erupt.

The separatist-dominated Security Belt forces, which are backed by the UAE, and pro-government fighters seize Aden and other parts of the south, and retain control despite briefly being driven out in a see-sawing battle.

The new front exposes a rift between the UAE and Saudi Arabia, who are effectively backing different sides in the south despite being partners in the anti-Houthi coalition.

Humanitarian crisis 

Yemen's conflict has killed tens of thousands of people, mostly civilians, relief agencies say, and has triggered what the UN describes as the world's worst humanitarian crisis.

The UN children's agency UNICEF describes the conflict as "a living hell" for children, with 1.8 million under-fives suffering severe malnutrition.

In September 2019, the United States says it is in talks with the Houthis, seeking to end the war.

The negotiations open a direct channel between President Donald Trump's administration and the Houthis amid the threat of a broader regional conflict with Iran.

Peace initiative 

On September 20, the Houthis unexpectedly announce that they plan to halt all attacks on Saudi Arabia as part of an initiative to end the devastating conflict.

It follows twin attacks on Saudi oil installations, claimed by the Houthis, that knocked out half of the kingdom's production.

Riyadh's ally Washington condemns the attacks as an "act of war", placing the blame on Iran and announcing it is imposing new sanctions and sending more troops to the Gulf.

Mehdi Al Mashat, head of the Houthis' supreme political council, announces "the halt of all attacks against the territory of Saudi Arabia".

"Pursuing war is not in anyone's interest," he says.