Region

TUNIS — Tunisia’s president-elect Kais Saied has won a clear mandate to fight corruption and promote social justice, even though his role focuses on security and diplomacy.

Here is an overview of key policy challenges facing the conservative newcomer:

Change in foreign policy? 

A constitutional law professor by trade, Saied has no real experience in foreign policy.

So far, he has proposed “principles more than a concrete road map”, according to former diplomat Taoufik Ouanes.

“While sticking to fundamentals, he will make adjustments to Tunisian diplomacy,” he said.

Tunis, which currently chairs the Arab League, “could renew diplomatic ties with Syria [ceased in 2012] and play a role in the return” of the war-torn country to the bloc.

Saied has made strong statements against Israel, considering any ties with Israel to be “high treason” — an Arab nationalist position that earned him praise among supporters.

Tunis currently has no diplomatic relations with Israel.

Ouanes added that Saied could also “call for a revision of the rules concerning foreign investment in the country”.

Tunisia is currently negotiating a trade deal with the European Union. Ouanes said Saied could “ask that the negotiations take Tunisia’s interests more into account”.

France, the former colonial power in Tunisia, called for an “expansion” of ties during a phone call between President Emmanuel Macron and Saied.

What are the 

security challenges? 

While the security situation has significantly improved since a series of attacks in 2015, Tunisia has maintained a state of emergency for four years, with assaults against security forces persisting.

On June 27, a suicide attack killed two people in the heart of the capital Tunis, reviving the spectre of violence.

During a televised debate ahead of Sunday’s run-off vote, Saied said a key to fighting terrorism was education, arguing that improving primary education would “immunise” youth against extremism.

He also said he considers access to healthcare and water a part of national security, hinting that he would like to be involved directly in improving these.

Another significant task is reforming the police, which was a cog in the dictatorship toppled by the 2011 revolt and which continues to be accused of human rights abuses.

Room to manoeuvre on the economy? 

Under the constitution, it is the government’s role to take the lead on the economy.

But given his strong voter backing, Saied could intervene in negotiations to form a government, or even in devising its economic and social policies.

Saied could also launch presidential initiatives — proposing bills to parliament or funds for youth employment, for example.

Many Tunisians hope that their president-elect, a man who owes nothing to the country’s economic elites, will bring more social justice.

 Is radical decentralisation possible? 

Saied has advocated direct democracy via local councils to better reflect “what the people want” in place of the party system in force in parliament.

But the assembly would likely look unfavourably on voting for its own dissolution.

To an extent the decentralisation of power, a key demand of the 2011 revolution, is already under way.

But the process has so far been slow, given the lack of political will.

A code for local authorities was adopted before the 2018 municipal elections, but less than a sixth of its decrees have been approved.

“Elected officials and ministries were opposed to power-sharing,” said Nessryne Jelalia, director of Tunisian NGO Al Bawsala.

“We now have a president and parties in parliament who have made it their campaign centrepiece,” she said.

ISTANBUL — Turkey’s state-run Halkbank on Wednesday denied any wrong-doing after US prosecutors charged it with a scheme to evade sanctions on Iran, saying the case was introduced to punish Turkey for its military operation in Syria.

The US Department of Justice said on Tuesday it had charged the bank with six counts of fraud, money laundering, and sanctions offences — arguing Halkbank was guilty of “illegally giving Iran access to billions of dollars’ worth of funds”.

The case comes at an extremely sensitive time between Washington and Ankara, with the US slapping sanctions on Turkey on Monday over its military offensive against Kurdish fighters in north-eastern Syria.

The charges “were filed as part of the sanctions introduced against our country by the US government in response to Operation Peace Spring, heroically launched by the Turkish Army to secure our borders and establish peace in the region”, Halkbank said in a statement.

US prosecutors say Halkbank was involved in a massive gold-for-oil scheme that allowed around $20 billion of illegal Iranian money to be deposited with it between 2012 and 2016.

Iran’s government used the money — much of it from oil and gas sales — to buy gold, the prosecutors allege.

They claim that high-ranking officials in Turkey’s government received bribes worth tens of millions of dollars paid from the proceeds of the scheme to shield it from US regulators.

Halkbank said on Wednesday that the case “relies heavily on unreliable testimony from witnesses who lack the necessary credibility” and that prosecutors had ignored evidence and witnesses proposed by the bank.

Speaking to reporters in parliament, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said the charges were an “illegal, ugly step”, according to the Anadolu news agency.

US prosecutors have charged nine individuals in relation to the case, including Mehmet Hakan Atilla, a deputy director general of the bank, who was convicted last year of plotting to help Tehran evade American sanctions on Iranian oil proceeds.

Atilla was found guilty in January 2018 following a five-week trial in New York. He was released from prison in July this year.

Atilla’s conviction hinged on the testimony of Turkish-Iranian gold trader Reza Zarrab, who was arrested by US authorities in 2016 after jetting to Florida with his pop-star wife and child on a family holiday to Disney World.

Zarrab initially pleaded not guilty then flipped, becoming a US government witness after admitting being involved in the sanctions-busting scheme.

TUNIS — Behind the landslide victory of conservative political outsider Kais Saied in a runoff presidential vote were millions of young voters, who describe him as a leader worthy of their trust as Tunisia's democracy takes root.

According to a poll by the Sigma polling institute, around 90 per cent of voters aged 18 to 25 voted for political newcomer Saied, massively shunning his rival, business tycoon Nabil Karoui.

"In the first round, I didn't think he would win. But now that he has won I can truly believe in the transparency of our elections," 20-year-old law student Mayssa Jlassi told AFP.

“We had to everything possible to mobilise all young people like me to vote en masse” for Saied, she added.

Jlassi joined a volunteer group that went door-to-door, with very modest means, to canvass for votes for her candidate.

Saied, a 61-year-old retired law professor, scooped 72.71 per cent of votes, official results showed.

According to Sigma’s data, Tunisians were sharply divided by age group.

The older the voter, the more likely his or her ballot went to Karoui, who swept up 50.8 per cent of the over-60s’ votes.

“The main reason for [Saied’s] victory was the extraordinary mobilisation of young people aged 18 to 25,” said Olfa Lamloum, director of the Tunis branch of the NGO International Alert, which works closely with young people.

According to Sigma, 37 per cent of young voters cast their ballot for Saied in the September 15 first round — twice the national average — while the disparity was magnified further in Sunday’s runoff.

‘Promise of real democracy’ 

Despite having spearheaded the Arab Spring revolt that ousted dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali in 2011, young people had largely shunned the ballot box in previous elections in Tunisia’s new democracy.

This time was different.

Saied “managed to win the trust of young people... not with promises but by offering answers to the failures of representative democracy”, Lamloum told AFP.

The anti-establishment Saied is seen as uptight and unwavering, and beneath his austere style is a commitment to socially conservative views that many young people reject.

But he has said he will respect the social freedoms enshrined in law in recent years that civil society groups have hailed as freedoms.

And what his young supporters see in him above all is an honest leader who is offering them the keys to building Tunisia’s future.

Saied has promised “to challenge the top-down nature of power and to change the rules of the game of politics, which are the root cause for the exclusion of young people”, Lamloum said.

For his acolytes, Saied represents “the promise of real democracy, dignity, and a break from a political class that is disconnected from the people and which is obsessed with power and its privileges”, she added.

‘Strong trust’ 

The incoming president has, in recent years, “established a strong relationship of trust with young people, by meeting them across the country, thus building for himself a circle of young people who ran his campaign for him”, sociologist Mohamed Jouili said.

French-language daily La Presse welcomed “a rekindling of interest among young people, from north to south Tunisia, in voting”.

Ultimately, it was this shift that decided the vote, “and that’s great”, wrote M’hamed Jaibi in an editorial.

Turnout was 55 per cent on Sunday, while just half of voters cast their ballots in the first round. The October 6 parliamentary vote saw fewer voters still.

Young people signed up to vote in an intense registration campaign. Those aged 18 to 35 now account for 63 per cent of voters, official statistics show.

The electoral commission has yet to release detailed official indicators of the turnout among young voters, but all the signs appear to show it was higher than in any of Tunisia’s previous free elections.

On voting day, thousands of young people mobilised, many of them spontaneously, to organise carpools to go to polling stations.

RAS AL AIN, Syria — Kurdish fighters battled to defend a key Syrian border town from Turkish-backed forces on Tuesday as Russia seized on a US withdrawal to move its troops into new areas.

Syria dispatched more forces to contain the Turkish advance, but its key ally Moscow vowed to prevent clashes between the two sides.

Washington slapped sanctions on its NATO ally in a bid to stop an assault triggered by its own abrupt pullout, but Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said the operation would continue until "our objectives have been achieved".

The Syrian army's move was its most significant deployment in the Kurdish-controlled region since it started withdrawing troops from the area in 2012.

It followed a deal announced Sunday between Damascus and the Kurds that saw government troops raise the Syrian flag in the flashpoint northern city of Manbij on Tuesday after US forces withdrew.

The Syrian army had entered the city near the Turkish border late Monday, as Turkey-backed fighters massed to the west ahead of a planned assault.

Kurdish fighters from the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) are battling Turkish forces and their Syrian proxies — mostly former rebels paid and equipped by Ankara — in various parts of the northeast.

East of Manbij, the Kurds are mounting a desperate defence of the border town of Ras Al Ain, using tunnels, berms and trenches.

An AFP correspondent in the area said clashes around the town continued Tuesday, despite Ankara's repeated claims it had captured the area.

The Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said Kurdish fighters had launched "a large counterattack against Turkish forces and their Syrian proxies near Ras Al Ain".

A Turkish-backed Syrian fighter said heavy artillery attacks by pro-Turkish forces were facilitating the advance.

Since launching their assault on October 9, Turkish-backed forces have secured more than 100 kilometres of border, but Ras Al Ain — Siri Kani in Kurdish — has held out.

President Donald Trump announced a pullback of US forces from the border last week, a move widely interpreted as green-lighting a long-planned Turkish invasion.

Erdogan, who like Trump faces political difficulties at home, wants to create a buffer zone stretching 30 kilometres from the border into Syrian territory.

He wants to keep at bay the SDF — seen in Ankara as “terrorists” linked with Kurdish insurgents in Turkey — as well as resettling some of the 3.6 million Syrian refugees currently in Turkey.

“God willing, we will quickly secure the region stretching from Manbij to our border with Iraq,” Erdogan said Tuesday.

The offensive has killed dozens of civilians, mostly on the Kurdish side, and displaced at least 160,000 people.

The UN Security Council will meet on Wednesday to discuss Turkey’s incursion.

Aid groups, which have warned of a new humanitarian disaster in Syria’s eight-year war, have pulled out international workers and halted work, the Kurds said, but UN agencies continue to operate.

Trump, who is campaigning for reelection but faces impeachment, is keen to deliver on a promise to pull US troops out of Syria.

The US will withdraw more than 1,000 troops from northern Syria, keeping only a residual contingent of around 150 at the Al-Tanf base near the southeastern borders with Jordan and Iraq.

Russia’s defence ministry said US troops had left bases near Manbij and the Syrian army “has full control” over the former Daesh terror group stronghold.

The US-led coalition confirmed the withdrawal, saying: “We are out of Manbij.”

US troops had been based in the city since helping Kurdish fighters seize it from Daesh in 2016.

Russian military police continue to patrol a zone separating regime troops and Turkish forces, in cooperation with Ankara, Moscow said.

Russia’s special envoy on Syria, Alexander Lavrentyev, said Turkish and Syrian officials were in contact to avoid any clashes between Turkish and Syrian forces.

“This would simply be unacceptable,” Russian news agencies quoted him as saying.

Turkey said two of its soldiers were killed on Tuesday in “terrorist” artillery fire in the Manbij region, bringing its death toll to six since the start of the offensive.

Transfers to Iraq? 

Abandoned by the US — their chief ally in years of battles against IS that cost the lives of 11,000 of their fighters — the Kurds turned to Damascus.

European governments are worried the chaos could trigger mass breakouts by thousands of Daesh fighters detained by Kurdish forces.

They have warned this could lead to a Daesh resurgence and increase the risk of some extremists returning to Europe and conducting terror attacks.

The SDF have warned their fighters were mobilised to counter the Turkish advance and not available to fully guard Daesh prisoners.

The Kurds have said hundreds of Daesh relatives escaped, although Trump suggested the SDF may have deliberately released them to gain leverage.

At least three French women escapees were “retrieved” by Daesh, according to messages they sent to their lawyer seen by AFP.

Human Rights Watch warned European countries against attempts to have their detained nationals transferred en masse to Iraq for prosecution.

The watchdog warned it would be illegal to send them to a country where due process is consistently violated and they risk execution.

A European diplomatic source said French and Iraqi officials were discussing a transfer on Tuesday.

WASHINGTON — Syria's Kurds, abandoned by President Donald Trump, were always allies of convenience for the United States, expendable when it comes to the strategic relationship with NATO ally Turkey, according to regional experts and US officials.

Trump's abrupt decision this month to withdraw US forces from northeast Syria left the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), formerly known as the YPG, at the mercy of Turkish troops and their Syrian proxies.

"Trump has decided that Turkey is much more important than the Kurds," said Joshua Landis, a Syria expert at the University of Oklahoma.

"And I ultimately don't think that's just Trump's decision — America sees Turkey as much more important to its interests," Landis said.

"And [Turkish President Recep Tayyip] Erdogan understood that," he continued.

"That's why he kept on escalating on the border and threatening to invade, because he understood that when push comes to shove, the United States was not going to declare war on Turkey for the Kurds."

US Army Secretary Ryan McCarthy was asked on Monday about the reactions of US soldiers upset with the betrayal of the Kurds, their allies in the fight against the Islamic State caliphate.

"You have to take the time to explain to your soldiers about the complexity of the situation," McCarthy told a conference.

He noted that the United States has partnered with both the Kurds and the Turks and that the two have historically had "challenges".

"When the partners have different equities, you have to take the time to explain the differences between soldiers and the choices that we have to make at the national level," McCarthy said.

McCarthy was essentially acknowledging what US military officials have long said in private — that when it came to the Kurds and Turkey, where the US has several strategic military bases, the choice was always going to be Ankara.

While denouncing the Turkish incursion into Syria as "unacceptable" and "irresponsible", Defense Secretary Mark Esper told "Fox News Sunday" that the United States "didn't sign up to fight Turkey, a longstanding NATO ally, on behalf of the SDF".

"This conflict has roots that go back 200 years," he added in a reference to Turkey's longstanding strife with its Kurdish minority.

 'Damaged' 

The Pentagon chief, in a statement on Monday, said the Turkish invasion had "damaged" the US-Turkey relationship and he would travel to Brussels next week to consult with NATO allies on a collective response.

Despite the tensions and US sanctions threats, the important US-Turkish military alliance does not appear to be in imminent danger.

According to the American Security Project, the United States has 50 tactical nuclear weapons at the Incirlik military base in Turkey, which has served as a staging point for US operations against the Daesh terror group.

Steven Cook, a senior fellow for Middle East and Africa studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, said the United States is being squeezed by the historical Turkish animosity towards the Kurds.

"The problem is that the Turkish government regards the YPG, the People's Protection Units, as inextricably linked with a Turkish Kurdish group called the Kurdistan Workers Party [PKK]," Cook explained.

"And the PKK has been waging a terrorist campaign against Turkey since the mid-1980s," he said. "The Turks have been outraged by the American relationship with the YPG/PKK.

"And Erdogan has come under significant pressure at home to finally do something about it," he said.

It was the United States, in fact, that suggested that the YPG change its name when US troops joined up with the Kurdish force in 2015 to do battle against Daesh.

"We literally played back to them that you've got to change your brand," Thomas said. "What do you want to call yourselves besides the YPG?”

"They declared that they were the Syrian Democratic Forces," he said. "I thought it was a stroke of brilliance to put democracy in there somewhere.”

"It gave them a little bit of credibility," he said.

LUXEMBOURG — EU foreign ministers on Monday voiced concern and condemnation at Turkey's assault on Kurdish forces in northern Syria, but warned their options for coordinated action across the bloc were limited.

Several European countries including Germany and France have halted arms exports to Turkey over the offensive and some like Italy are pushing for a formal EU ban.

But, with some EU states urging caution so as not to inflame already tense ties with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, foreign ministers meeting in Luxembourg look unlikely to agree tough concrete actions.

"We don't have magic powers but what we can do is put all pressure possible to stop this action," Spanish Foreign Minister Josep Borrell told reporters as he arrived for the meeting.

Spain would back a Europe-wide arms embargo, Borrell said, but warned it would be hard to get the unanimous support of all 28 EU states.

Germany's Heiko Maas said the offensive by NATO member Turkey threatens to upend progress towards a political solution to Syria's civil war, with the Kurds now joining forces with the government of President Bashar Al Assad.

But he said "it is important to remain in dialogue with Turkey in order to be able to influence it.”

“If that is not successful, we will have to reserve the right to take further measures,” he said.

Turkey's assault, which has seen air strikes, shelling and a ground incursion, has killed scores of civilians and fighters since its launch on Wednesday.

The EU last week issued a statement in the name of all 28 member states to condemn the offensive, warning it risked unleashing a humanitarian disaster and could undermine the fight against the Daesh group.

Trouble for NATO 

French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said the most important thing was for Monday's meeting to send a strong message to Turkey.

Paris also wants the US-led international coalition against Daesh — of which Turkey is a member — to meet to discuss the crisis, Le Drian said.

Washington has ordered the withdrawal of almost its entire ground force in Syria, leaving the Kurds feeling abandoned by their ally in the fight against Daesh.

The Turkish offensive creates huge headaches for NATO, with several countries highly critical and even imposing arms embargoes on a fellow alliance member.

Luxembourg Foreign Minister Jean Asselborn called the situation "unbelievable", asking what would happen if Syria launched a counterattack.

"Would Article 5 be triggered?" he said, referring to NATO's mutual self-defence clause under which an attack on one member is an attack on all.

NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg held talks on Friday with Erdogan and his foreign minister Mevlut Cavusoglu, sharing his "very serious concerns" about the offensive.

Cavusoglu said Spain had told Ankara that as a result of the assault, it would withdraw its Patriot missile batteries from Turkey — originally deployed to help it defend itself against Daesh attacks — when the current mission ends in December.