Business

NETIV HAGDUD — An international campaign to boycott Israeli settlement products has rapidly turned from a distant nuisance into a harsh economic reality for Israeli farmers in the West Bank’s Jordan Valley.

The export-driven income of growers in the valley’s 21 settlements dropped by more than 14 per cent, or $29 million, last year, largely because Western European supermarket chains, particularly those in Britain and Scandinavia, are increasingly shunning the area’s peppers, dates, grapes and fresh herbs, according to settlers.

“The damage is enormous,” said David Elhayani, head of the Jordan Valley Regional Council, which represents about 7,000 settlers. “In effect, today, we are almost not selling to the [western] European market anymore.”

Israel has played down the impact of the campaign of boycott, divestment and sanctions launched by Palestinian activists in 2005 to pressure Israel to withdraw from occupied lands.

“By and large, it’s unpleasant background noise,” said Israeli foreign ministry spokesman Yigal Palmor, arguing that its overall effects have been negligible.

Israeli supporters of a land-for-peace deal with the Palestinians have warned that Israel could face a snowballing boycott — of the magnitude that brought down apartheid in South Africa — if it rebuffs proposals US Secretary of State John Kerry is to present in coming weeks.

Finance Minister Yair Lapid, speaking to the news website Ynet, warned Israelis on Friday that “a continuation of the existing situation will hurt the pocketbook of each of us”, particularly by hitting exports.

The Palestinians, too, could face repercussions if the talks collapse, such as less foreign aid from Europe.

Israeli security hawks say the valley must remain under Israeli control forever. The Palestinians argue that this would prevent them from establishing a viable state because they need the farm lands and open spaces.

Uzi Dayan, a former Israeli national security adviser, said Israel needs the valley, which makes up close to one-fourth of the West Bank, for strategic depth.

“Being here in the Jordan Valley, it is something existential,” he said last week, standing on a mountaintop overlooking sprawling date palm plantations. “The national security of Israel is based on defensible borders, not on boycotts.”

But economic worries are growing for some of the valley’s farmers.

Niva Benzion, who lives in the Netiv Hagdud settlement, used to sell 80 per cent of her sweet peppers and grapes to supermarket chains in western Europe, particularly in Britain.

Sales to western Europe plummeted in the past two years, she said, adding that she now sells mostly to eastern Europe and Russia, for up to 40 per cent less. She reduced her growing area by one-third this season and doubts she can make ends meet in the future.

Zvi Avner, head of the agriculture committee in the Jordan Valley, confirmed that sales of peppers and grapes to western Europe — mainly Britain and Scandinavia — have dropped by about 50 per cent and fresh herbs by about 30 to 40 per cent.

Avner and Elhayani said they are confident they can overcome the difficulties by selling in new markets and by farming more effectively.

The European Union (EU) says Israel’s settlements in the West Bank and East Jerusalem, now home to more than 550,000 Israelis, are illegal under international law, but has not called for a consumer boycott of settlement products.

As part of the US-led peace talks, the EU has promised Israel and the Palestinians an unprecedented partnership, just short of full membership, if they strike a deal. However, if talks fail, the Palestinians might expect a cutback in EU aid, while Israel might have to brace for a tougher anti-settlement stance by Europe.

This might include reviving plans for EU-wide guidelines for labelling settlement products. Currently, about half the 28 member states support such labeling, a step that would enable consumers to observe a boycott.

Britain issued guidelines to retailers for the voluntary labelling of settlement products in 2009. In December, Britain’s overseas trade body strongly discouraged firms from doing business with settlements.

In recent years, several British supermarket chains have either begun labeling or stopped selling goods from Israeli settlements.

“Supermarkets are now starting to realise that there’s a really big reputational risk involved here,” said Michael Deas, a Britain-based coordinator for the international boycott movement.

Marks & Spencer said it hadn’t sold any products from the West Bank since 2007. Upscale supermarket chain Waitrose said it stopped selling herbs from the West Bank several years ago. Morrisons, Britain’s fourth-largest grocer, said it stopped selling dates from the West Bank in 2011.

In 2012, the Co-operative Group (Co-op), the country’s fifth-largest grocer, banned Israeli settlement produce from its shelves.

Some retailers, like Co-op, said they were taking a moral stand, decrying the settlements as illegal. Others, like Waitrose, said their decision was commercial.

In Germany, the Kaiser’s supermarket chain said it stopped carrying products from the West Bank and the Israeli-annexed Golan Heights in 2012.

Israeli officials say the boycott has strong anti-Semitic overtones and aims to delegitimise the Jewish state.

Supporters of the campaign say they are gaining momentum and have pointed to a string of recent successes.

Last week, Dutch pension asset manager PGGM said it divested from five Israeli banks because they are involved in financing the construction of Jewish settlements.

Other moves, such as a recent decision by an American scholarly group to boycott Israeli universities, invited a broad backlash, in part because it targeted Israel and not just settlements.

Jordan Valley settlers say a boycott also hurts about 6,000 Palestinians employed on their farms.

Palestinian officials counter that Israel has suppressed virtually all Palestinian economic development in the valley and that Palestinians could create tens of thousands of jobs if freed from Israeli shackles.

While some settlers hope to see the valley annexed to Israel, Benzion, 57, said she wouldn’t stand in the way of peace, even if it means dismantling her life’s work.

“Nothing breaks my heart so easy, especially not bricks,” she said. “I will not even have a second thought of leaving here, if it’s for a peace treaty with our neighbours. I will cherish that.”

But expressing anger at the decision by Dutch pension asset manager PGGM to divest from Israeli banks over settlement building in the West Bank, the Israeli foreign ministry summoned Ambassador Caspar Veldkamp “for clarification” over the decision.

The ministry “told the Dutch ambassador that the decision of the PGGM pension fund to divest from Israel is unacceptable and relies on false pretence”.

“We expect the government of the Netherlands... to take an unequivocal stance against such steps, which only wreak damage to the relations between Israel and the Netherlands,” the ministry said.

Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte said that PGGM’s decision “was their own and has nothing to do with the Dutch government”.

“We are against a boycott and against sanctions [against Israel],” he told journalists at his weekly news conference in the Hague. “But we are against the settlements.”

Dutch “companies are free to do business within the settlements, but we would not support that”, Rutte said.

PGGM’s divestment came a month after a major Dutch water supplier ended a partnership with an Israeli water company which supplies Israeli towns and Jewish settlements in the occupied West Bank.

“PGGM recently decided to no longer invest in five Israeli banks,” said the company, which manages about 153 billion euros ($208 billion) in funds. “The reason for this was their involvement in financing Israeli settlements in occupied Palestinian territories.”

PGGM said there was “a concern, as the settlements in the Palestinian territories are considered illegal under humanitarian law”, and regarded by international observers as an “important obstacle to a peaceful [two-state] solution of the Israel-Palestinian conflict”.

Senior Palestinian official Hanan Ashrawi commended PGGM for “translating its corporate social responsibility policy into practise”.

“Steps by corporations such as PGGM, as well as practical measures that European governments have been taking, finally make Israel realise that it is not above the law,” she said in a statement.

AMMAN — Planning and International Cooperation Planning Minister Ibrahim Saif on Saturday met with Finnish Minister of International Development Pekka Haavisto and discussed prospects for further economic cooperation.

Saif voiced his appreciation for Finland for its support to enable the Kingdom to continue providing humanitarian services to Syrian refugees. 

AMMAN — The National Council for Competitiveness and Innovation on Saturday held a meeting during which discussions covered means to develop the production of the economic sectors and enhance their competitiveness.

Prime Minister Abdullah Ensour, president of the council, underlined the need to follow up on the needs of different economic sectors. Participants at the meeting listened to a briefing on the Jordanian Competitiveness Programme, which will be implemented over the next five years by the public and private sectors to create some 40,000 work opportunities in high added-value sectors and attract more than $700 million in foreign investments, while increasing exports by 25 per cent.

AMMAN — Fitch Ratings announced Thursday in a press statement issued in London and received by The Jordan Times that it has downgraded Arab Bank Plc.’s long-term issuer default rating (IDR) to ‘BBB-’ from ‘A-’ and viability rating (VR) to ‘bbb-’ from ‘a-’ and removed them from rating watch negative. “The outlook is negative,” the press release said.

“The downgrades reflect heightened risks associated with parts of the bank’s operations across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA).” According to the press release, the effects have so far been manageable for Arab Bank (for example, loan impairment charges fell).

Nonetheless, the operating environment in Jordan is tough and underlying risks associated with the bank’s exposures, particularly in Egypt and Tunisia, have, in Fitch’s view, increased.

“The bank’s geographic diversification of operations, along with solid capitalisation, conservative overall risk appetite, stable funding profile, the structure of its network and affiliates and its liquidity management policies mean Fitch believes Arab Bank is able to mitigate risks associated with its domicile, but cannot completely offset them,” the press release explained. The bank’s profitability is currently sound and consistent, but Fitch considers it vulnerable to downside risks related to some markets. 

AMMAN — Industry and Trade Minister Hatem Halawani on Thursday met with a delegation representing several global companies operating in the garment sector and briefed them on the various incentives that the Kingdom offers for investors, according to a ministry statement.

The minister highlighted the investment climate and the infrastructure services available at development and industrial zones in several areas of the Kingdom.

At the meeting, the minister told the delegates that several new development and industrial zones will be set up in various governorates to grant more chances for investors and increase investments in a manner that reflects positively on the economy.

He noted that the ministry is constantly working to eliminate any obstacles that may hamper the work of investors, highlighting the country’s drive towards reform and to achieve higher growth.

The delegates comprised representatives of companies from Singapore, Sri Lanka, India and the US.

LONDON — The flow of oil through a new pipeline to Turkey from Iraq’s Kurdish region is a boon for the small oil companies that took a risk to explore there, who at last see the chance to earn steady export income from their investments despite the strong objections of the government in Baghdad.

The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) said on Wednesday that the first crude had started to flow through the new pipeline across Turkey. Exports are expected to begin at the end of this month and will ramp up in February and March, it noted.

“We’ve been waiting to read these words and hear these words since 2007,” said Todd Kozel, chief executive of Gulf Keystone which has Kurdish government approval to exploit what it says is one of the largest onshore exploration fields in the world.

“It’s music to any operator’s ears in Kurdistan. It’s the monetisation of our assets,” Kozel said in an interview.

Iraq’s central government stressed on Thursday it still opposed the shipments, which it considers illegal without its blessing.

“No approval is given,” Deputy Prime Minister for Energy Hussain Al Shahristani said in an e-mail to Reuters.

Although the early flows are predicted to be modest, the move has the potential to redraw export routes across the region. Kurdistan’s bid to sell oil and gas independently from Baghdad has infuriated officials in the Iraqi capital, which claims sole authority to manage all Iraqi oil.

Shares in London-listed Genel Energy were up 4.63 per cent and Norway’s DNO was up 2.05 per cent on Thursday. Both companies already supply oil to the new pipeline from fields in Kurdistan, according to the KRG.

“Overall, [the news is] supportive for Kurdistan-focused Genel and provides confidence that the prospect of pipeline exports has become an increasing reality,” Deutsche Bank said in a note.

Other companies that aim to produce oil in Kurdistan but don’t yet use the pipeline also saw shares rise, including London-listed Gulf Keystone, which separately announced on Thursday that it had begun exports of Kurdish oil by truck. Its shares were up 1.13 per cent.

Kozel said his company was working with the KRG to send its oil through the pipeline “as soon as possible” but was using trucks for now because of the logistical hurdle of connecting its field to the pipeline. He indicated that Gulf Keystone aims to achieve output of 100,000 barrels per day in 2015.

Shares in Hungary’s MOL and Britain’s Petroceltic and Afren also traded higher.

“[Kurdish] government confirmation of the expected ramp-up in piped exports will be viewed as a positive today,” Numis analyst Sanjeev Bahl said, adding that Genel and DNO would be the main beneficiaries.

Windfall

Iraq’s northern Kurdish region, made up of three mountainous provinces on the Turkish frontier, has blossomed economically under self rule as the only part of the country to escape the violence unleashed after the US invasion in 2003.

Iraq’s constitution mandates that all Iraqi oil revenues go through the central government in Baghdad, and the Kurds then receive 17 per cent. The windfall has brought prosperity to their small region, although the Kurds frequently complain that they have received less than their full entitlement.

Although most of Iraq’s oil is now produced in the south, the northern Kurdish provinces have largely untapped oil fields of their own, and the Kurds also have territorial claims to the oil-producing region of Kirkuk.

Kurds want the right to manage their own oil industry, and say they will channel revenues to the central government for the benefit of all Iraqis. But politicians in Baghdad fear any such move could one day lead the Kurds to seek independence and try to seize control over Kirkuk.

The Kurdish government has invited bids to buy the first shipment of two million barrels of oil to be piped to Turkey this month.

It says it will then offer four million barrels in February and six million in March, rising to 10-12 million barrels by December, an amount that would be equivalent to around 10 per cent of Iraq’s oil output. That would put the Kurds well on their way to being able to raise as much money on their own as they now get from Baghdad.

Baghdad has pressed large international oil companies not to do business with the Kurds, initially leaving the field open to smaller firms like Genel, DNO and Gulf Keystone. In 2011, ExxonMobil become the first oil major to sign an agreement with the KRG over Baghdad’s objections, and Total and Chevron have followed suit.

Shares in the small firms operating in Kurdistan have fluctuated based on political sentiment, rising when it appears that the Kurds are closer to securing the means to export via Turkey. Gulf Keystone’s Kozel remarked that the political risk was exaggerated.

“A year ago you didn’t have an agreement with Turkey, you didn’t have a pipeline. Political risk for Kurdistan is a lot less than political risk for the Middle East in general,” he indicated.

Analysts at HSBC upgraded Genel to overweight on Thursday, giving it an additional boost. They cut their rating on DNO to underweight however, citing a recent surge in its share price by 160 per cent.

TEL AVIV — A major pension fund manager based in the Netherlands said on Wednesday it will divest from five Israeli banks over their dealings with Jewish settlements on occupied land.

The move by PGGM reflects tension between Israel and the European Union (EU) over doing business with Israeli institutions involved in settlements in the West Bank and East Jerusalem.

Its decision was swiftly welcomed by the Palestinians.

PGGM cited a non-disclosure policy it said barred it from publishing exactly how much it had invested in Israeli banks, but gave a general estimate saying its largest client had shares in these banks totalling at least 9 million euros in 2012.

The lenders involved — Bank Hapoalim, Bank Leumi, First International Bank of Israel, Israel Discount Bank and Mizrahi Tefahot Bank — declined to comment.

“For several years, PGGM has been in dialogue with these banks. The reason for this engagement was their involvement in financing Israeli settlements in the occupied Palestinian territories,” PGGM said in a statement.

“This was a concern, as the settlements in the Palestinian territories are considered illegal under international humanitarian law,” it added.

PGGM is among the Netherlands’ largest pension fund managers, with assets in excess of 153 billion euros ($210 billion).

“Boycotts must be used to put pressure on the occupation state [Israel] so that it pays a dear price for its continuing occupation of Palestinian land and violation of international law,” Palestinian MP Qais Abdul Kareem said in a statement.

Palestinian officials are engaging with Israel in difficult US-backed peace talks to establish an independent state, but have warned they may soon bring Israel before the International Criminal Court over its settlement policies.

The officials welcomed PGGM’s move, and decisions by two Dutch companies in the last two months to suspend dealings with Israeli counterparts to build water facilities on occupied land.

The settlements are built in areas Israel captured in a 1967 war and which are now home to more than 500,000 Israelis. Palestinians want the land for part of a future state.

Israel, citing security concerns and historic and Biblical links to the territory, says it intends to keep some settlements in any future peace deal.

Relations between Israel and the EU, its biggest economic partner, have grown rockier in recent years, with the EU becoming more vocal in its criticism of Jewish settlements, saying they imperil the chances of peace with the Palestinians.

Tensions mounted in July when the EU’s Executive Commission announced it would bar financial assistance to any Israeli organisation operating in the West Bank from 2014.

The announcement threatened to disqualify Israel from a prestigious EU scientific research project, but it joined after the two sides reached a compromise in November which allowed Israel to say it rejected the new guidelines.

Some Palestinians have championed what they call the Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions Movement to convince international institutions to cut ties with Israel as a criticism of its treatment of Palestinians.

Israeli officials reject those efforts, saying they apply a double standard to Israel and are aimed at delegitimising it as a Jewish state.

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas said in December he backed a boycott of the settlements, but not of Israel itself.

But top Israeli peace negotiator Tzipi Livni last month described the conflict with the Palestinians as “the glass ceiling of Israel’s economy”, saying it would start with Israeli settlements but could move to other Israeli business interests.

“It won’t end there. The boycott is moving and advancing uniformly and exponentially,” Livni was quoted as saying by the Israeli Yedioth Ahranoth newspaper.

AMMAN — Jordan Investment Board (JIB) acting Chief Executive Officer Awni Rushoud on Wednesday briefed a delegation representing companies from Singapore, Sri Lanka, India and the US on investment opportunities in Jordan. Rushoud said in a JIB statement sent to The Jordan Times that Jordan’s rating in international reports is among the board’s highest priorities regarding investment policies, citing the significance of such reports to investors. Rushoud also said that JIB’s understanding of investment is centred around creating job opportunities to Jordanians and upgrading the living conditions as well as lowering poverty and unemployment rates. The delegation comprised executive directors from the multinational Nike, Inc. 

DHAKA — On the outskirts of Dhaka, Babylon Garments has shortened work shifts to eight hours from the usual 10 and plans to shutter production lines as months of election-related violence disrupts transport and prompts global retailers to curb orders.

The company, which supplies shirts, trousers and other apparel for global retailers including Wal-Mart Inc., is one of the biggest players in Bangladesh’s $22 billion garment industry that has seen orders cut nearly in half in the last three months — the worst drop in two decades, according to the Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers & Exporters Association (BGMEA).

“December is usually a season when we are packed with orders to a point where we can’t take any more but look at this year — it’s a completely different story,” said Muhammad Saiful Hoque, assistant general manager of Babylon Garments, as workers sewed checked shirts for British-based Tesco Plc.

Industry officials say the unrest in the run-up to Sunday’s disputed election has been worse for business than the April collapse of Rana Plaza, an illegally built factory in which more than 1,100 workers were killed in a disaster that prompted calls for safer working conditions and more accountability on the part of the global retailers that buy Bangladesh’s clothing exports.

The disruption to Bangladesh’s garment industry, the world’s second biggest after China, as well as a shutdown by striking garment workers in Cambodia, another big supplier, means global retailers face a supply squeeze.

Garment orders are typically placed at least three months in advance.

“The impact won’t be immediately felt but the delay in shipping finished orders will hurt the global retail market around June,” indicated Shahidullah Azim, vice president of the BGMEA, which says up to $1 billion in orders are at risk in the coming weeks if the situation does not improve.

A Wal-Mart spokesman said the country sources from more than 70 countries, which allows it to plan for any potential supply chain interruptions. He added that he was not aware of any issues related to developments in Bangladesh and Cambodia.

Michael J. Silverstein, a senior partner with the Boston Consulting Group based in Chicago, described Bangladesh as a critical supplier of clothing for world markets and too large to replace.

“The majority of the customers believe Bangladesh will not go dark, for example stop shipping,” he said. “They do believe there will be delays and a need for alternative supplies.”

Crucial industry

Bangladesh’s garment industry accounts for 80 per cent of the country’s exports and is so important to the economy that it has typically been spared from the political unrest that periodically racks the South Asian nation, even though many textile tycoons are politically active.

Several factory owners are members of parliament, representing either the ruling Awami League or the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), which boycotted the poll in protest at Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s refusal to hand power to a neutral caretaker government to oversee the vote.

More than 100 people were killed in clashes ahead of the election, with the unrest accompanied by roadblocks that have pushed up transport costs by 10 to 20 per cent, according to the BGMEA — a worry for an industry that operates on wafer-thin margins and needs to keep costs low to be competititve.

The unrest had shown no signs of abating since Sunday’s poll, with seven people killed in further violence on Monday and one reported death on Tuesday, during a 48-hour strike called by the opposition after the poll.

AKH Group, a large supplier that produces for H&M Hennes & Mauritz AB, Marks & Spencer Plc. and Fast Retailing’s Uniqlo, said it was becoming nearly impossible to meet delivery commitments.

“Trucks are stuck on the roads for days and there is very little you can do about it other than somehow pay through the roof to get them going,” AKH Group’s Deputy Managing Director Abul Kashem said.

Some shipments are costing the company as much as 1 million taka ($13,000), compared with the 20,000-30,000 taka it usually takes to send the same truckloads, as transport costs have surged due to roadblocks across the country, Kashem added.

Buyers have cut orders by 25 per cent on average and H&M, one of AKH’s biggest clients, has cut its orders by 30 per cent, he remarked. H&M, however, said it had not cut orders with AKH by 30 per cent, and so far has not been affected by the unrest.

The reason for the discrepancy was not immediately clear, although supply chains in Bangladesh are often complex, involving a series of buyers and middlemen.

Analysts at Morningstar said in a note that H&M had protected itself well from potential disruptions by using a large number of manufacturers and ordering in small batches.

A Marks & Spencer said the British high street stalwart was closely watching the situation in Bangladesh and Cambodia, but had not reduced orders and at this stage did not anticipate any effect on supplies. A Uniqlo spokesman said the company had not reduced production or orders from Bangladesh.

Lost orders

Neighbouring India has taken most of the orders that have been lost, while the rest have gone to Pakistan and China, according to data from the BGMEA.

“Rana Plaza dealt a heavy blow to the reputation of this country but that still didn’t impact the confidence of buyers and inflow of orders the way the recent crisis has,” said Babylon’s Hoque.

Babylon’s production of shirts fell to 750,000 pieces in December from 850,000 in the same period last year, and was expected to fall below 700,000 by February due to the lack of demand, he said.

Of the 12 large retailers Babylon supplies, seven or eight were placing orders in reduced quantities, while the rest have completely stopped, he added.

If deliveries are late, the supplier must pay compensation, said Rubana Huq, managing director of Mohammadi Group, which supplies Wal-Mart, H&M, Inditex’s Zara and others.

“I have just paid 12,000 euros to a client. Our goods were three weeks late. I couldn’t afford not to,” she noted.

Inditex declined comment on the situation in Bangladesh.

With as much as half of capacity idle at big factories, small manufacturers who make up a third of the industry and largely rely on subcontracted orders from bigger suppliers are especially vulnerable.

Turja Apparel, a small garment factory in Dhaka, has no orders after January 20 and owner Kazi Babul was not hopeful he would get new ones until the political situation stabilises.

He said he may shutter his factory for now. “Small factory owners have suffered heavily after the Rana Plaza collapse as no one wants to give us orders, and now the political situation has taken away the little that we were getting.”

NEW YORK — Most people around the world are optimistic that 2014 will be better than last year and that the global economy will be stronger, according to a poll released on Tuesday.

Seventy-six per cent of people in 23 countries questioned by the global research company Ipsos said they had high hopes for the new year, slightly more than in 2013. About half said last year was not great for them and their families.

“People are excited for the New Year. I think they still have a bad taste left in their mouths from 2013, with the slim majority saying it was a bad year for them and their families and people a bit worried about the economy,” Keren Gottfried, a senior research manager for Ipsos said in an interview.

But the overall optimism, she added, “shows people want to look at the world with the glass half-full.”

The poll showed that 53 per cent of people around the world believe the global economy will be more robust in 2014, with the sentiment strongest in India, China and Indonesia and weakest in Sweden, France and Italy.

Only 33 per cent of Italians had confidence in the global economy improving, slightly less than the Swedes and the French.

“Last year was definitely not a great year for a lot of people. We know economically speaking the economy has not risen globally and certainly not within the US,” Gottfried explained.

Optimism for a better 2014 was highest in Indonesia, France, Brazil, India and Argentina, where more than 85 per cent of people questioned in the online survey said they looked forward to improvement this year. Hope was lowest in Japan and Italy.

Spaniards, Argentineans, Hungarians and Mexicans were the most likely to say last year was disappointing, while the numbers were the lowest in Australia, Indonesia and Sweden, where 42 per cent or fewer people had a lousy 2013.

The poll showed personal New Year’s resolutions were popular in most countries, particularly Indonesia, Argentina, Turkey, Brazil and South Africa where 90 per cent or more people made them, compared with 56 per cent in Hungary and 38 per cent in Sweden.

Gottfried views the numbers as an indication that people are making resolutions because they want to make things better and are starting the year with excitement.

Ipsos questioned a total of 18,153 adults aged 18-64 years old in the United States and Canada and 16-64 years old in Mexico, Australia and other countries in Europe and Asia from December 4-18.

In countries where 1,000 people were questioned, the credibility interval is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. The interval is plus or minus 5 percentage points where 500 people were polled.