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DUBAI — The United Arab Emirates (UAE) economy, the Arab world’s second largest, is recovering at a fast pace from the global financial crisis but remains threatened by low oil prices, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said Wednesday.

“Economic recovery has continued at a solid pace, supported by construction, logistics and hospitality,” a team from the IMF said after visiting the Gulf country.

Growth was underpinned by ongoing public projects in oil-rich Abu Dhabi and continued strength in Dubai’s services sectors, it indicated in a statement. 

UAE, the fourth largest supplier in the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), was hit hard by the global financial crisis, strongly dampening economic growth which averaged just 1.5 per cent between 2007 and 2011.

The IMF projected the UAE economy would grow 4.25 per cent this year, down from 5.2 per cent in 2013 with non-oil growth forecast at 5.5 per cent.

The decline in oil prices, if sustained, could have a significant impact on revenues, the IMF warned, noting, however, that the UAE had sufficient fiscal buffers to minimise the fallout. 

The IMF welcomed stable real estate prices in Dubai as sales in summer moderated.

“The slower momentum in the market is welcome news following a period in which prices had increased at a fast pace,” it said.

Dubai and its government-related entities (GREs) have continued to improve their debt profiles after the major debt restructurings from the 2008-2009 crisis, the IMF said, adding that several GREs had begun to make early repayments.

While debt levels for some GREs remained significant, stronger financial positions and lengthened maturity profiles had further reduced debt-related risks. 

Dubai said this week it has repaid $1.93 billion raised from Islamic bonds known as “sukuk” and renewed its commitment to pay back billions of dollars worth of debt on time.

In August, the emirate’s real estate giant Nakheel repaid all of its $2.15 billion bank debt almost four years ahead of schedule.

Dubai in March managed to delay for another five years the repayment of $20 billion worth of debt it received from Abu Dhabi that had been due to mature this year.

IRBID — Canadian embassy's commercial attaché, Jean-Philippe Tachdjian, on Tuesday called for boosting trade exchange between Jordan and Canada, especially as they are signatory to a free trade agreement. During a visit to Irbid, where he met Irbid Chamber of Commerce Chairman Mohammad Shoha, he cited the "weak" trade balance between the two countries, noting that Canada's exports to Jordan stand at around $68 million, while its imports from the Kingdom amount to $44 million. Tachdjian said a series of meetings will be held for Canadian and Jordanian businesspeople and companies to look into ways to strengthen the joint-trade activities.

NEW YORK — Oil dived more than 3 per cent on Tuesday to multiyear lows, as Saudi Arabia's sharp cut in export prices to the United States looked likely to deepen a global supply glut that has already driven prices down 30 per cent since June.

On Monday, Saudi Arabia surprised the market by raising prices for Asia and Europe but cutting prices for US customers. Oil slid as much as $2 a barrel in late trade, and the sell-off continued Tuesday, triggering technical sell-stops.

"The Saudis have basically declared war on the US oil producers," said Phil Flynn at Price Futures Group. "I think they believe that the only way they're going to survive in the long term is to break the market in the short term."

US crude futures were down $2.33 at $76.45 after reaching the lowest price since October 2011.

Many analysts say the US shale boom could slow if crude stays below $80 a barrel.

The price of Brent for next-month delivery was down $2.22 at $82.56 by 1701 GMT after touching its lowest point since October 2010.

On Monday, longer-dated oil futures became more expensive than near-term contracts, putting charts into a contango structure for the first time since January 17. On Tuesday, the December/January spread was around minus 8.

US commercial crude stocks are likely to have risen last week in the fifth straight weekly stock build, according to a survey by Reuters.  

No OPEC consensus 

The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) could curb output when it meets November 27, but there are no clear signs that OPEC will curb production. Most core Gulf members have indicated little alarm over the price drop.

The United Arab Emirates oil minister said the country is "not panicking". Venezuela and Ecuador have said they are working on a joint proposal to defend oil prices.

"I can see OPEC and Saudi Arabia playing the long game. A low price for a period of time may actually play into the hands of people with a lot of reserves in the ground at cheap cost," Pierre Lorinet, chief financial officer of Trafigura, indicated at the Reuters Global Commodities Summit.

Ian Taylor, chief executive of Vitol, said at the Reuters summit that OPEC members would have "serious discussions" about an output cut.

"My feeling is we're underestimating now the possibility of OPEC cutting," he added.

Saudi Oil Minister Ali Al Naimi has not commented publicly on the oil market since September. On Wednesday, he will meet Venezuela's foreign minister Rafael Ramirez, also the head of its OPEC delegation, according to a person close to the Saudi delegation. 

If anything, Naimi may simply seek to explain Saudi Arabia's latest stance on the market, a tough message about how all big producers must be prepared to endure a period of lower prices in order to slow the march of their newest rival: The United States.

"I suspect that Naimi will tell the Venezuelans the unvarnished truth — prices have to go down quite a bit and stay down," says Philip K. Verleger, president of consultancy PKVerleger LLC and a one-time adviser to President Jimmy Carter.

Even if Naimi were rallying support for action, Latin American producers struggling to maintain output would likely be his last stop.

"This [trip] is very much a sign of business as usual without any panic," said Paul Horsnell, global head of commodities research at Standard Chartered Bank.

The visits may be an early indication that the three Latin American countries — once fierce competitors selling heavy crude into the premium US market — are finding common cause facing the fast-emerging threat of North American shale and oil sands.

"There are some interesting changes and opportunities today given the fact that the United States has become a major light sweet producer," said Amy Myers Jaffe, executive director of energy and sustainability at the University of California, Davis.

Climate and natural gas

The stated purpose of Naimi's trips is benign: He will attend a climate change conference in Venezuela and a natural gas conference in Mexico. Naimi has long been the kingdom's envoy to global climate talks, but he has not been to Venezuela since 2006.

But the visits will also afford a chance for Naimi — who was involved in the late 1990s talks — to explain the kingdom's relaxed stance on oil prices to Venezuela, one of the OPEC members at greatest risk from falling crude revenues. It may be a precursor to more difficult conversations down the road.

Less than four weeks before OPEC ministers meet in Vienna, there is no indication that the group's core Gulf members are in any hurry to tighten the taps. 

Without a reduction in OPEC output or a sharp slowdown in US shale production, some analysts expect prices to keep sliding into next year.

Officials in Venezuela and Mexico declined to say whether any direct discussions between oil officials were planned. 

Tough talk or friendly chat? 

Venezuelan officials have publicly lamented talk of a price war following Saudi Arabia's move last month to cut export prices of its crude, seen by some as an indication that the world's biggest exporter had shifted strategy towards defending its market share, even at the expense of lower global prices.

But that veiled criticism is a far cry from the open hostility between the two nations in the late 1990s, when Saudi Arabia sought to punish Venezuela for revving up output in excess of its OPEC quota by flooding the market — the last of several price wars within the group. Now Venezuela is fighting to keep output from falling.

"Right now if you wanted to get production cuts the last place you would go is Caracas or Mexico City," said Nathaniel Kern, president of Foreign Reports in Washington.

Mexico, not an OPEC member, was enlisted as an "honest broker" to get the two countries talking, said Horsnell. Oil prices had tumbled 40 per cent after the Asian financial crisis of 1997.

In the end, Algeria's oil minister acted as a go-between during months of cloak-and-dagger petro-diplomacy, involving unmarked jets, secret trips to Europe and, finally, a March 1998 output deal in a rented room at the Madrid airport.

Naimi's trip shows that talk of a current price war is overblown, says Horsnell.

LONDON — Oil prices fell Monday, hit by a strengthening dollar as dealers digested global manufacturing data for clues about demand growth, analysts said.

Brent North Sea crude for delivery in December slid 42 cents to stand at $85.44 a barrel in late London deals.

US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for December lost 43 cents to $80.11 a barrel  compared with Friday's closing level. Crude oil futures had risen slightly earlier in the day.

"The focus right now is on the manufacturing data.... We are looking for signs of industrial growth, which will in turn mean greater crude demand," Daniel Ang, investment analyst at Phillip Futures brokers told AFP. 

The US manufacturing sector picked up speed in October after a dull September, with companies reporting rising orders and more job creation, but a significant slowdown in price gains, according to data released Monday.

The Institute for Supply Management's purchasing managers index (PMI) for last month jumped to 59 from 56.6 the previous month, though that put it back at the same level as in August.

A PMI reading above 50 indicates expansion.

Separate data published on Monday showed that activity in the eurozone's manufacturing sector nudged higher in October as businesses cut prices.

And over the weekend, China's official PMI came in at 50.8 in October compared with 51.1 in September — raising concerns about slowing growth in the world's second-largest economy and top energy consumer.

"Market participants will be keeping an eye on the recent macroeconomic indicators which could provide direction in the market," said Myrto Sokou, senior research analyst at Sucden brokerage firm.

AMMAN — Real estate trading volume in the first ten months of 2014 went up by 21 per cent, the Department of Lands and Survey (DLS) said  in its monthly report.

The DLS indicated that trading amounted to JD6.4 billion, compared to JD5.3 billion registered during January-October 2013.   Revenues from real estate deals totalled JD352 million, 18 per cent higher than the amount collected during the same period of last year. 

Apartment exemptions granted during the first ten months of this year came at JD68.5 million, bringing the total of revenues and exemptions to JD420.4 million, a 21 per cent increase. 

The department’s central and Amman branches accounted for 74 per cent of gross revenues with a total of JD260 million, while revenues in other governorates stood at JD91 million.

Non-Jordanian investors registered 4,263 buying transactions, 2,899 for apartments and 1,364 for lands, with an estimated value of JD398 million, marking an increase of 18 per cent compared with same period of last year.

Apartment transactions value reached JD256.4 million constituting 64 per cent of the total transactions, whereas land transactions registered JD141.6 million, representing 36 per cent.

In terms of nationality distribution, among non-Jordanians, Iraqis topped the list with a total of 1,829 real estates, followed by Saudis with 647, Kuwaitis with 399 and Syrians came fourth with buying 377 real estates.

Regarding real estate values, Iraqis also topped the list with JD227 million constituting 57 per cent of purchase values among non-Jordanians, during the same period of 2014.

Saudis came second with JD37.2 million comprising 9 per cent, followed by Syrians with JD24.2 million constituting 6 per cent, and UAE citizens came fourth with a total purchase value of JD16 million comprising 4 per cent.

The total transactions of selling real estates in the Kingdom during the first ten months of 2014 stood at 87,709 transactions with an increase of 6 per cent compared with the same period of 2013.

Amman registered 36,466 transactions marking a 42 per cent of the total transactions, with the other 51,243 transactions being distributed over the rest of governorates, constituting 58 per cent.

Amman’s transactions included 20,645 for apartments and 15,821 for lands, whereas other governorates’ transactions included 9,207 for apartments and 42,036 for lands. 

FRANKFURT — The European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to hold fire on new policy moves Thursday and leave a series of radical recent measures to take their course, despite pressure over a weak economic recovery, analysts say.

Unlike moves by the US Federal Reserve to end its stimulus spree and a surprise monetary easing plan by the Bank of Japan, ECB policymakers are expected to sit tight at their monthly meeting.

The week looks set to be particularly busy for the ECB, which on Tuesday takes on its role as Europe's banking watchdog in a historic shake-up to help ward off another financial crisis.

Howard Archer, of IHS Global Insight, said no new ECB decisions were likely for the time being, adding that "the bank will very probably remain in 'wait and see' mode into the New Year".

Interest rates are currently at their all-time lows anyway — 0.05 per cent for its main "refinancing" rate — and a rate hike seems unlikely at a time when the ECB is seeking to boost inflation from its stubborn lows.

Inflation in the 18-nation eurozone edged up to 0.4 per cent in October, official data showed Friday, far below the 2 per cent target set by the Frankfurt-based ECB, which has a core mission of ensuring price stability.

"If survey-based inflation expectations fall further, the pressure for additional ECB monetary easing will increase," Commerzbank's chief economist Joerg Kraemer said, however.

Current low inflation levels have stoked fears of deflation — when prices actually fall — which, if it takes hold, can trigger a vicious spiral where businesses and households delay purchases, throttling demand and causing companies to lay off workers.

Nevertheless, Carsten Brzeski, of ING-DiBa, said the latest "better-than-feared" economic eurozone data was one of several factors likely to allow the ECB "to wait, at least until the December meeting before possibly deciding on new action".

Expanding bank's balance sheet 

In addition to cutting interest rates, deflationary fears have prompted the ECB to pull out other tools, such as a series of liquidity programmes to inject cash into the economy.

After its TLTRO, or targeted long-term refinancing operations scheme, to make cheap liquidity available to banks on condition they lend it on to companies, and a programme to buy covered bonds, its latest move to kickstart credit in the euro area begins this month.

The ECB is launching purchases of asset-backed securities (ABS), or bundles of individual loans such as mortgages, car loans and credit-card debt sold on to investors, to allow banks to share the risk of default and free up funds to offer more lending.

But the central bank's target of boosting the size of its balance sheet by 1 trillion euros ($1.25 trillion) has made little headway through the first TLTRO or the initial covered bonds purchases.

Analysts have suggested that some banks may have preferred to hold off until after the results of the ECB's most stringent-ever audit were published. Last week, that audit awarded a clean bill of health to a large majority of eurozone banks.

Investors will be watchful Thursday for any comments by ECB President Mario Draghi on the possible purchase of corporate bonds following speculation this could be on the horizon.

SHANGHAI — Shanghai's mayor promised Sunday to speed up development of China's first free trade zone (FTZ) a year after it opened, as a chorus of foreign companies expressed disappointment over the pace of pledged reforms.

The FTZ was set up in China's commercial hub Shanghai last September with the promise of a range of financial reforms, including full convertibility of the yuan currency and free interest rates — which remain unfulfilled.

Mayor Yang Xiong said the government would work towards making the yuan — also known as the renminbi (RMB) — freely convertible, among other financial liberalisation plans for the FTZ, but gave no timetable.

"We will gradually put in place an institutional and regulatory framework to enable the convertibility of the RMB under the capital account... so that the financial sector can better serve the real economy," he told business leaders in a speech.

China keeps a tight grip on its currency fearing unpredictable inflows or outflows of funds could harm the economy and reduce its control over it.

Yang said the government would also offer a revised "negative list" of what is barred in the FTZ for 2015, following criticism that the two previous lists were too long.

"We will further liberalise the service sector by rolling out a series of new measures and compiling the 2015 version of the negative list," he said.

Foreign business executives attending the annual meeting, which bills itself as an advisory body to the city government, said they were waiting for clarity.

"The resulting time lag between announced and actually implemented reform measures has created an opaque picture that has led to a wait-and-see attitude among many foreign investors," Michael Diekmann, chairman of German insurance giant Allianz, said in a paper presented at the meeting.

Some 12,600 companies had registered in the FTZ since its establishment but only 14 per cent were foreign-invested firms, according to official figures.

"A lot of financial reforms in favour of liberalisation have been announced but have not yet been implemented or not completely, such as the liberalisation of RMB," Gérard Mestrallet, chairman and chief executive officer of French energy firm GDF Suez, said in another paper.

AMMAN — Industry and Trade Minister Hatem Halawani on Saturday said economic indicators are gradually improving. He told investors from the King Abdullah II Industrial Estate and from Al Muwaqqar Industrial Estate that the budget deficit and the inflation rate have dropped besides an increase in the exports’ value. At the meeting, attended by Jordan Industry Chamber President Ayman Hatahet, Halawani said the economy is going in the right direction, noting that Ministry of Finance figures attest to the stability of the Kingdom's financial situation. Halawani predicted that the economy will grow by 3.5 per cent by the end of this year, expecting the rate to go up to 4.5 per cent in 2015. Hatahet highlighted the chamber’s efforts to provide all facilities to investors, underlining the importance of arriving at a clear work plan for the development of the national industry.

AMMAN — A total of 7,261 new enterprises have joined the Amman Chamber of Commerce (ACC) during the first nine months of 2014 with a capital of JD1.2 billion.

During the same period of 2013, 6,358 enterprises joined the ACC with a capital of JD257 million, according to a statement ACC sent to The Jordan Times. 

ACC statistics showed that the “new enterprises were distributed among 45 nationalities with the Jordanian at the top with a capital of JD83.5 million”.

Iraqis came second with a capital of JD19 million, followed by Syrians with JD9 million and Americans with JD2 million, during the same period.

In terms of sector distribution in the first three quarters of 2014, the ICT sector came at 475 new enterprises with a capital of JD13 million, whereas 901 new enterprises joined the sector of clothes and jewellery with a capital of JD4.6 million.

Around 600 enterprises joined the construction and building material sector with a capital of JD18 million, 525 enterprises in the car and construction vehicles sector with JD17 million and 254 enterprises in the electricity and electronics sector with JD2 million.

The health and medicine sector registered new 332 entries with a capital of JD5 million, 21 new enterprises registered in the financial and bank sector with JD7 million, and 2,047 enterprises joined the food items sector with JD15 million.

Home and office furniture and stationery sector witnessed new 642 entries with a capital of JD3 million, while 1,401 new enterprises  registered in the service and consultation sector and other sectors with a capital of JD1.1 billion. 

A total of 46,697 members are currently registered in the ACC, which was established in 1923, with a total capital of JD34.7 billion, the statement reported. 

NEW YORK — The cost of ingredients in chocolate bars is rising, and the nation's biggest candy makers have already warned of price hikes next year. 

And it's not just costs that are pushing up prices. A growing sweet tooth around the world means more demand for chocolate.

Here are the global trends putting pressure on the confection:

Pricier ingredients 

Hershey and Mars, which together account for about two-thirds of US chocolate sales, are hiking prices. Hershey cited the rising cost of cocoa, dairy and nuts when it announced an 8 per cent increase in the average wholesale price of its candy this summer. 

Those higher costs weighed on the chocolate maker's most recent earnings, which fell 4 per cent.

Hershey Chief Executive Officer John Bilbrey, said in an interview with CNBC earlier this month that shoppers wouldn't see a price increase this year because his company negotiated prices for its holiday items well in advance. 

However, consumers would notice an impact next year.

Mars, a privately-held company, said this summer that its prices would rise by about 7 per cent because of a need to support its marketing spending and "manufacturing capabilities". 

The company said that it last increased prices in 2011.

Global sweet tooth

People in the developing economies of Asia and Latin America are acquiring a taste for chocolate. While North America and Western Europe still account for more than half of global chocolate sales, demand is growing faster in emerging markets. 

That's raising concerns that demand for cocoa beans, the key ingredient in chocolate bars, will outstrip supply.

Chocolate sales in Asia are forecast to grow by 23 per cent over the next five years and by almost 31 per cent in Latin America, according to London-based research firm Euromonitor International. 

That compares with growth of 8.3 per cent in North America and 4.7 per cent in Western Europe over the same period.

Those forecasts helped push the price of cocoa beans as high as $3,371 a tonne in September, the highest level since March 2011. 

The price has since fallen back to $2,923 a tonne, but it is still 23 per cent higher than it was two years ago.

Supply problems

West Africa is the world's biggest cocoa producing region and accounts for about two-thirds of the global crop. 

Unlike large, modern farms in the US and other developed economies, about 80 to 90 per cent of the world's cocoa crop comes from small, family-run operations, according to the World Cocoa Foundation (WCF), a trade organisation.

The small-scale production makes it more challenging to introduce modern farming techniques that boost productivity from season-to-season to faster match demand.

The WCF, which is backed by companies including Mars and Hershey, is sponsoring farmer training to encourage more efficient use of water resources and better soil management to improve crop yields.

West Africa is also at the centre of the Ebola outbreak. But concerns that cocoa production would be hampered by the virus' spread have proven overblown, so far.

The Ivory Coast, which produces about 40 per cent of the world's cocoa crop, has yet to register a single case of Ebola, despite sharing a western border with Liberia and Guinea, two of the nations at the centre of the epidemic.

Food hikes

Chocolate-covered bacon, anyone? It might be a hit to more than just your waistline. Bacon prices have climbed 7 per cent this year after a fatal virus swept through the nation's pig herds. 

Coffee prices jumped after a drought in Brazil damaged the crop. Milk prices have also risen.

The retail price of chocolate has climbed to an average of $5.93 a pound in 2014 from $4.92 five years ago, according to estimates from the National Confectioners Association, an industry group that represents candy and chocolate makers.

In total, Americans will spend about $1.5 billion this Halloween filling bowls with chocolate, according to the NCA. That makes the last day of October the industry's most important holiday for sales — ahead of Easter, Christmas and even Valentine's Day.

The timing of Halloween could make this week a big treat for candy companies.

"We're optimistic on Halloween because it falls on a Friday this year," said Larry Wilson, vice president for customer relations at the NCA. People "will celebrate it later into the night, and they'll celebrate it all weekend".

For consumers, that party will cost a little more next year.