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Germany continues to repatriate gold — Bundesbank

By - Jan 19,2015 - Last updated at Jan 19,2015

FRANKFURT — The German central bank or Bundesbank said Monday that it stepped up the repatriation of its gold reserves from overseas storage last year.

"The Bundesbank successfully continued and further stepped up its transfers of gold," the central bank said in a statement.

"In 2014, 120 tonnes of gold were transferred to Frankfurt from storage locations abroad: 35 tonnes from Paris and 85 tonnes from New York," it indicated.

Germany's gold reserves are the second-biggest in the world after those of the United States and totalled 3,384.2 tonnes this month, according to the latest data compiled by the World Gold Council.

For decades, the Bundesbank's gold holdings have been kept in the treasuries of other central banks, in Paris, London and New York.

According to the German central bank's own data, 1,447 tonnes are stored at the Federal Reserve Bank in New York, 438 tonnes at the Bank of England in London and 307 tonnes at the Banque de France in Paris.

There were historical reasons for this.

After World War II and the export revival of West Germany's "economic miracle" in the 1950s, the central bank accumulated dollars it swapped for gold at the Federal Reserve. With Germany split between capitalist west and the communist East German state until 1990, storing most of the gold abroad was a way to keep it out of Soviet reach during the Cold War.

But surging mistrust of the euro during Europe's debt crisis fed a campaign to bring home Germany's gold reserve from New York and London, with some political parties fuelling fears the gold might have been tampered with.

Under the Bundesbank's new gold storage plan in 2013, it decided to bring back 674 tonnes from abroad by 2020 and store half of its gold in its own vaults.

"Implementation of our new gold storage plan is proceeding smoothly. Operations are running very much according to schedule," said Bundesbank executive board member Carl-Ludwig Thiele.

"We also called on the expertise of the Bank for International Settlements for the spot checks that had to be carried out. As expected, there were no irregularities," Thiele added.

Since the transfers began in 2013, the Bundesbank said it has relocated a total of 157 tonnes of gold to Frankfurt, 67 tonnes from Paris and 90 tonnes from New York.

Separately, the central bank said the economy, Europe's biggest, has managed to shrug off faster than expected the period of weakness it experienced last year.

"The German economy appears to have overcome the phase of weakness that emerged last spring more quickly than many people expected," the Bundesbank wrote in its latest monthly report.

Among the positive factors contributing to this were the "markedly positive consumer climate, on the back of the favourable employment and income outlook, and falling energy prices," the report said.

Business confidence had also improved in December, the Bundesbank said, pointing to the increased industrial output in October and November and a rise in factory orders.

After notching up growth of 0.8 per cent in the first quarter of 2014, German gross domestic product contracted by 0.1 per cent in the second quarter and then expanded by a meagre 0.1 per cent in the third quarter.

But the federal statistics office Destatis calculated in a flash estimate last week that the economy expanded by 1.5 per cent overall in the whole of 2014, suggesting that growth must have accelerated in the fourth quarter.

The main factors driving the recovery were rising exports, increased consumer and public spending, and a rebound in investment, Destatis indicated.

UAE sees no impact on clean energy from falling oil prices

By - Jan 19,2015 - Last updated at Jan 19,2015

ABU DHABI — The United Arab Emirates (UAE) on Monday downplayed fears that the fall in oil prices could negatively impact the development of renewable energy projects.

"Our interconnected energy landscape has evolved beyond the point where the price of oil determines the fate of clean energy," said Minister of State Sultan Al Jaber who is also chairman of Masdar, Abu Dhabi's renewable energy company.

Oil prices have fallen by almost 60 per cent since June, crashing on worries over global oversupply and weak demand in a faltering world economy.

Participants at the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) conference in oil-rich Abu Dhabi on Saturday had voiced concerns that the trend could spell doom for plans to shift to clean energy.

Speaking at the World Future Energy Summit opening ceremony in Abu Dhabi, Jaber indicated that globally, investments in clean energy have increased by 16 per cent during the past 12 months amounting to $310 billion.

Meanwhile, production capacity of wind turbines and solar energy panels increased by 26 per cent during the same period, producing 100,000 megawatts.

Renewable energy has shifted "from an expensive alternative to a competitive technology", said Jaber.

"This growth has been driven by the sharp decline in cost and steady rise in technology efficiency," he added.

The Emirati official called for seizing the opportunity of falling oil prices to cut fuel subsidies that, according to him, cost the world $550 billion in 2013.

France's ecology and energy minister said Monday that the fall in oil prices poses a threat to global efforts to boost renewable energy use and lower carbon emissions.

"There is a real risk of the re-orientation of consumption towards fossil fuels, the ones that cause global warming and thus very severe climatic changes," Segolene Royal said on the sidelines of an energy conference in Abu Dhabi.

Royal told AFP the challenge to switch to cleaner forms of energy was "not insurmountable".

"We must take regulatory, fiscal and strategic decisions to ensure that this decrease [in oil prices]... can provide new flexibility to invest in renewable energy and energy savings," she said.

Royal said she was "reasonably optimistic" that renewable energy would continue to grow despite market pressure.

Renewable energy, which relies on solar, wind and other sources, is essential for meeting global CO2 emission targets.

The energy summit that opened on Monday is part of a series of events organised under the banner of Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week, including also an International Water Summit.

In March last year, Abu Dhabi opened the world's largest operating plant of concentrated solar power, which has the capacity to provide electricity to 20,000 homes.

On Sunday, An Abu Dhabi fund said that it will provide $57 million worth of concessional loans for clean energy projects in five developing countries.

The projects were aimed at bringing "reliable and sustainable power to more than 280,000 people" in Argentina, Cuba, Iran, Mauritania and St Vincent and the Grenadines, said the Abu Dhabi Fund for Development.

The second loan cycle is part of a commitment by Abu Dhabi to provide concessional loans worth $350 million (300 million euros) over seven years to finance renewable energy projects in developing countries.

The loans were announced jointly at a news conference with IRENA.

"Renewable energy offers the prospect of clean, affordable power to the 1.3 billion people currently off the electricity grid," said IRENA Director General Adnan Amin.

Ecuador, Mali, Mauritania, Samoa, and Sierra Leone are among the countries that have already benefited from such loans.

The Gulf region is one of the world's richest areas in sunshine but lagging far behind several other countries in harnessing the energy.

Tunisia seen needing foreign investment, deepening reforms to unlock prospects

By - Jan 18,2015 - Last updated at Jan 18,2015

TUNIS/LONDON — Four years after Tunisia sparked off the Arab spring uprisings, the country is seen as a rare regional success story, but its prospects hinge on it deepening reforms and attracting foreign investment.

The North African country of 10 million people suffered its share of political and economic woes after the 2011 revolutions that swept much of the Maghreb and the Middle East, toppling several long-standing leaders including its own Zine Al Abidine Ben Ali who fled Tunisia four years ago last week.

But Tunisia's democratic election last year and a surging stock market are a contrast with the bloody turmoil in neighbouring Libya and Egypt.

So much so that Tunisia has just kicked off investor meetings for a Eurobond, its first standalone post-Arab spring deal that will come without US guarantees.

While the bond will be a key test of investor appetite, Tunisia's stock market has already reaped the benefits of political stability. The Tunis index rose more than 16 per cent in 2014 and trades just 10 per cent below record highs hit before the Arab Spring.

Joseph Rohm, portfolio manager in Investec's frontier markets team, is one of the investors looking to increase exposure to stocks again after reducing holdings in 2011.

"Tunisia has enormous potential to reform," Rohm said. "However [it] is in desperate need of foreign direct investment to drive economic growth and job creation."

Tunisia has yet to form a government, expected to happen in coming weeks, but political stability and steps towards reform make Tunisia worth a fresh look, said Jefferies' analyst Richard Segal, noting positive comments from ratings agency Fitch.

"Trends are likely to remain market friendly on balance for the next two to three months," Segal told clients. "Therefore, we'd be more likely to be positive than neutral about Tunisia”.

Tunisia signed a two year deal with the International Monetary Fund in 2013, agreeing to follow certain economic policies such as keeping its deficit under control, making the foreign exchange market more flexible and structural reforms.

The government has already cut fuel subsidies, imposed new taxes and let the dinar depreciate to re-build foreign currency reserves, but more reforms are needed. 

Ratings agency Fitch points to Tunisia's banking sector representing a key structural weakness and ripe for an overhaul.

Furthermore, investors worry in particular about its current account deficit, especially as foreign direct investment, at 1.5 billion Tunisian dinar ($780 million) last year according to official data, remains well off pre-2011 levels.

Ratings agency Fitch estimates Tunisia's 2014 current account deficit at 8.3 per cent of the gross domestic product due to energy imports. This compares to 6.7 per cent in Morocco.

Some relief for the deficit could come from oil prices which have slid 60 per cent since June, said Florence Eid, chief executive officer of think tank Arabia Monitor. Yet that could equally weigh on foreign direct investment from oil exporting countries in the Gulf.

"Tunisia will benefit in terms of lower energy prices, but will not accelerate the pace of investment as much as it could have done," Eid added.

Robert Ruttmann from the investment office at Julius Baer is doubtful Tunisian shares can repeat last year's performance.

"Tunisian earnings will have to improve substantially this year in order to justify any further index price rises," he said, adding he was not recommending Tunisian stocks to clients.

Oqlah assures Japanese investors of Jordan's advantages, gov’t support

By - Jan 18,2015 - Last updated at Jan 18,2015

AMMAN — Jordan Investment Commission  President Montaser Oqlah on Sunday underlined the commission's commitment to provide all means of support and benefits to Japanese investors. At a meeting with Jordanian and Japanese businesspeople, he highlighted strides made in the recent years in terms of developing legislation governing investment. Oqlah called for benefitting from agreements signed between the two countries, particularly in the areas of economy, trade and investment. He also urged Japanese investors to explore new economic cooperation opportunities between the Kingdom and Japan, citing advantages offered by the Qualified Industrial Zones and the Jordanian market, such as the skilled manpower and the geographical location of the Kingdom as a gate to the Middle East. Oqlah noted that the free trade agreements Jordan is signatory to makes it an investment "incubator". Jordanian businesspeople highlighted investment opportunities in energy, ICT, tourism and pharmaceuticals industry. For their part, the Japanese delegates expressed their interest in investing in Jordan, deeming the current visit of Japan's premier as an opportunity to develop economic cooperation ties.

Oil price slump could cripple clean energy push, experts warn

By - Jan 17,2015 - Last updated at Jan 17,2015

ABU DHABI — Falling oil prices could have a negative impact on global efforts to develop renewable energy sources, experts warned Saturday at a conference in Abu Dhabi.

Oil prices have fallen by almost 60 per cent since June, crashing on worries over global oversupply and weak demand in a faltering world economy.

Participants at the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) conference that opened Saturday in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) said the trend could spell doom for plans to shift to clean energy.

The fall in oil prices could be a "game changer", Italy's Deputy Minister for Economic Development Claudio Vincenti told the meeting that concludes on Sunday.

In the past, a rise in oil prices had encouraged clean energy investments, said Vincenti, adding that a long-term fall in prices could shift the balance among various energy sources. He did not elaborate.

Salem Al Hajraf, who represented the oil-rich emirate of Kuwait at the conference, agreed saying falling oil prices are posing a "major challenge" this year as was the case two decades ago.

"The fall of oil prices in the 80s was a main reason behind the collapse of many renewable energy projects," he told participants.

Renewable energy, which relies on solar, wind and other sources, is essential for meeting global CO2 emission targets.

Delegates from more than 150 countries attended the opening session of the IRENA conference, including Israel which has no diplomatic relations with the UAE .

Representatives from more than 110 international organisations are also taking part in the meeting. 

"The story of renewables is rapidly evolving and as the importance of renewable energy grows, so does the relevance of the agency's work," IRENA Director General Adnan Amin told the conference.

He indicated that total world investments in renewable energies have reached $264 billion in 2014, $50 billion more than the previous year.

During the meeting, the Abu Dhabi Fund for Development, in partnership with IRENA, will announce a series of loans for five renewable energy projects in developing countries, organisers said.

Abu Dhabi-based IRENA, with 137 member-states and the European Union, aims to promote the sustainable use of all forms of renewable energy.

The conference coincides with a series of events organised under the banner of Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week, including Future Energy Summit on Sunday and International Water Summit on Monday.

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al Sisi is expected to attend Future Energy Summit while French  Energy and Environment Minister Segolene Royal will take part in the International Water Summit.

Separately, the dramatic collapse in oil prices is still insufficient to stimulate crude consumption as weakness in the economy has cancelled out the benefits of cheaper crude, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said Friday.

Although prices are expected to remain depressed in the short-term, there are now signs that the tide will turn, the agency added.

Crude prices have crashed to near six-year lows, plunging some 60 per cent from June over a supply glut and weak demand.

"How low the market's floor will be is anyone's guess," said the IEA in its latest monthly report on the oil market. "A price recovery, barring any major disruption, may not be imminent, but signs are mounting that the tide will turn."

That "rebalancing may begin to occur in the second half of the year", the IEA added, stressing however that this does not imply a price recovery to recent years' highs as the market is "undergoing a historic shift".

"OPEC's embrace of market forces last November is a game change," it indicated, referring to the decision by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to maintain production levels despite plunging prices.

The shale energy revolution in the United States has also changed the landscape, it said.

 

Non-OPEC output declines 

 

Any change in direction of oil prices would be due to the supply end as energy companies have begun axing budgets and cancelling new projects.

The IEA said it was slashing its forecasts for non-OPEC supply growth for 2015 by 350,000 barrels a day from last month's report.

Colombia led the declines, said the IEA, cutting its forecast for Colombian production by 175,000 barrels a day.

Canada's was slashed by 95,000 barrels a day.

Among the latest casualties of the price rout was a $6.5 billion project in Qatar, which Shell scrapped last week.

But these actions will only have an impact on prices "further down the road".

Demand, which would have an immediate impact on prices, does not appear to be picking up.

"With a few notable exceptions such as the United States, lower prices do not appear to be stimulating demand just yet," said the IEA.

"That is because the usual benefits of lower prices, increased household disposable income, reduced industry input costs, have been largely offset by weak underlying economic conditions, which have themselves been a major reason for the price drop in the first place," it added.

The agency therefore maintained its oil demand forecast for 2015, expecting it to grow by 0.9 million barrels a day to reach 93.3 million barrels.

Brent North Sea crude for delivery in March was trading just under $50 on Friday, while US benchmark West Texas Intermediate for February was changing hands at around $47.

OPEC decided in November to maintain its collective output ceiling at 30 million barrels of oil per day.

OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia has stated that OPEC will not cut production even if the price drops to $20 per barrel, in a move aimed at hurting US shale oil producers.

Euro slides below $1.15 for first time since November 2003

By - Jan 17,2015 - Last updated at Jan 17,2015

NEW YORK — The euro fell Friday against the dollar on growing expectation that the European Central Bank (ECB) will launch stimulus this week to jump-start the ailing eurozone economy.

The euro fell below $1.15 for the first time since November 2003, before recovering to trade at $1.1566 around 2200 GMT. Late Thursday, the shared European currency traded at $1.1623.

Official European Union (EU) data reported Friday further fueled speculation that the ECB will announce a large asset-purchase programme after its monetary policy meeting Thursday to counter the risk of deflation in the 19-nation currency bloc.

Eurostat confirmed prior data showing that eurozone inflation fell into negative territory in December, with consumer prices down 0.2 per cent. On a year-over-year basis, inflation was the weakest since September 2009, at 0.8 per cent well below the ECB's target of close to 2 per cent.

Kathy Lien of BK Asset Management said in a market note that the question that everyone is now asking is whether the euro "will turn into another big loser" like oil and copper "or a big winner that will save funds at the brink of collapse" after the Swiss National Bank (SNB) removed its cap on the franc's rate with the euro.

"Smart investors won't wait that long for an answer because since June, the euro has fallen more than 15 per cent against the US dollar with approximately half of those losses incurred over the past four weeks," she added.

"With arguably the biggest bull in the euro market no longer supporting price, no wonder EUR-crosses have collapsed in the wake of the SNB's latest decision," said Christopher Vecchio of DailyFX.

According to Saturday's FT, the ECB will this week announce plans to directly buy government bonds, creating new money to fight off possible deflation despite German objections.

The ECB holds its first policy meeting of the year on Thursday and is widely expected to announce some sort of programme of sovereign bond purchases, or quantitive easing, to try to kick-start the eurozone's sluggish economy. 

Germany is concerned such a programme amounts to direct fiscal support for profligate states, taking away the pressure to push through tough economic reforms.

Conscious of German objections, the bonds will be underwritten by individual states in order to reassure German taxpayers that they will not be on the hook in the event of a default, according to the FT, raising separate issues about the principle of risk sharing.

"There are a series of trade-offs involved in [designing QE] and whatever is announced will probably not satisfy everyone," Ken Wattret, economist at BNP Paribas, told the FT. 

"Any adverse impact stemming from a reluctance to mutualise risk could be offset by a strong signal that the ECB is willing to buy in large scale in order to raise inflation expectations," he said.

German news magazine Der Spiegel reported on Friday that national central banks would only be allowed to buy the sovereign debt of their respective countries, to ensure they alone carried the risk of a possible default by their government.

The weekly said ECB chief Mario Draghi had presented the scheme to German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble in a meeting on Wednesday.

The central bank widely reported to be considering purchases worth at least 500 billion euros or to pledge to buy sovereign debt until inflation approaches two per cent, said the FT report.

Falling prices could prove damaging for EU firms as consumers put off purchasing goods and for governments ladened with fixed-rate debt.

ECB January 22 meeting to examine launching sovereign debt purchase: board member

"We will take the American and British experiences into account in order to determine the amount of debt to buy so as to reestablish confidence and bring inflation back to a level close to and lower than 2 per cent, while keeping in mind the institutional specificities of the eurozone," Benoit Coeure, an ECB board member, told French newspaper Liberation on Friday.

"We should also decide if the purchase would concern the debt of certain countries or if it should be balanced across the entire eurozone," said Coeure.

Coeure stressed that the aim of such a stimulus operation is to "ensure confidence in the capacity of the central bank to stabilise inflation". 

The French ECB board member said that there is an increasing risk that "growth and inflation remain constantly weak, that we slump into an 'economy of 1 per cent — growth at 1 per cent and inflation at 1 per cent". 

"This prospect is sufficiently dangerous for us to be worried about," he added.

Coeure also said the Islamist attacks in France has made it even more important for Europeans to stand united "including in the economic sphere".

"The attacks have underlined that a part of European youth are on the fringes, have dropped out, are jobless, at risk and in extreme cases, led astray in delinquency and even terrorism. Without growth, this phenomenon can only worsen," he indicated.

Touching on another burning question surrounding the bloc, the ECB board member said there is "no question of Greece leaving the euro" following January 25 elections which are feared to bring anti-austerity party Syriza to power.

"The stakes of the election are elsewhere, it's the composition of the cocktail of reforms that will allow this country to definitively exit the crisis and to further integrate with European economies," he indicated.

Global energy sector reels from oil price slump

By - Jan 15,2015 - Last updated at Jan 15,2015

LONDON — Slumping oil prices are sending shockwaves through the global energy industry, sparking the cancellation of projects and job losses, particularly at North Sea operations.

British oil giant BP revealed Thursday it was shedding 200 staff jobs and 100 contractors in its North Sea activities, one month after taking a $1 billion restructuring charge to combat sliding revenues.

BP employs around 3,500 onshore and offshore workers in the North Sea operations, mainly in and around the oil hub city of Aberdeen in Scotland.

Trevor Garlick, regional president for BP North Sea, said the cuts were inevitable due to the "well-documented challenges of operating in this maturing region" and "toughening market conditions".

US energy major ConocoPhillips earlier said it was cutting 230 jobs across Britain, out of a total of 1,649 staff, almost all of them in Aberdeen.

Shell and US rival Chevron had both announced similar cutbacks last year in the region.

 

Scotland requests London help 

 

Scotland's energy minister has urged the British government to ease the tax burden on the North Sea oil industry to help it cope with sliding crude prices.

Britain's North Sea oil and gas sector employs over 400,000 people and has brought more than $200 billion in tax revenue to the government, making it a vital part of Britain's economy.

Fergus Ewing, a member of the Scottish National Party (SNP) that holds power in the devolved government in Edinburgh, told AFP that "we face serious challenges".

The industry "will come through these difficulties but the industry does need the support of government on a long-term basis, and that sadly has what has not happened thus far", he said in an interview this week.

Separately on Thursday, Africa-focussed British energy explorer Tullow Oil took a huge $2.3 billion writedown on its assets, partly due to tumbling oil prices, and slashed spending this year.

Global oil prices have collapsed by a hefty 60 per cent since June, hit by plentiful crude supplies and demand fears in the faltering world economy.

European benchmark Brent oil tumbled Tuesday to $45.19 per barrel, hitting the lowest level since March 2009 and spelling fresh gloom for the energy sector.

"It's pretty a clear reaction to plummeting oil prices," said Thomas Pugh, oil expert at Capital Economics, when asked about the recent round of oil project cancellations and job cutbacks. "Companies will stop some projects where they have not invested too much yet."

BP's news came one day after its Anglo-Dutch rival, Royal Dutch Shell, axed a deal with state-owned Qatar Petroleum to build a $6.5 billion petrochemical complex in the Gulf state, blaming high costs and ongoing turmoil in the energy sector.

 

Companies
'look long term' 

 

"The fall in oil prices is clearly playing its part," said analyst Keith Bowman at UK-based stockbroker Hargreaves Lansdown about the collapse of the Shell's Qatar Project. "The estimated return on their investment for both companies will have fallen."

Shell said the Al Karaana project, north of Doha, would not proceed because high costs made it "commercially unfeasible" in the current economic climate.

"Oil companies take their investment decisions on a long-term basis because the oil prices are volatile," added Pugh at Capital Economics. "The prices could bounce back to, say, up to $70 next year, which would be more sustainable."

Elsewhere Thursday, Norway, one of the world's leading exporters of crude and gas, forecast that its oil investment will shrink by 22 per cent between 2014 and 2017 to 135 billion kronor ($17.6 billion) owing to the oil price collapse.

Norway's oil production in 2015 was forecast to stand at 1.49 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, down from 1.51 mboe last year.

Conflict trumps economy as top risk to world in Davos survey

By - Jan 15,2015 - Last updated at Jan 15,2015

LONDON — The risk of international conflict is now the biggest threat facing countries and businesses in the coming decade, trumping concerns about the economy, the World Economic Forum (WEF) said on Thursday.

The group's annual assessment of global hazards sets the scene for its meeting in Davos next week, although it is based on responses received some months ago. It is the first time the survey has headlined conflict as the top risk, reflecting an increasingly dangerous world.

The previous nine editions of the Global Risks report have tended to highlight economic threats such as fiscal crises, the collapse of asset prices and widening income disparity.

This time, economics have taken a relative backseat as nearly 900 experts in the survey fretted over the pro-Russian separatist uprising in Ukraine, the dramatic rise of the Islamic State group and other geopolitical flashpoints.

"It's very striking how geopolitical risks have shot up much more strongly than other risks," said Margareta Drzeniek-Hanouz, the World Economic Forum's (WEF) lead economist.

In addition to fears over major clashes between states, the means to wage conflict are changing, with the arrival of cross-border cyberattacks, drone strikes and the increased use of economic sanctions.

Since the survey was conducted, the economic picture has clouded significantly, with oil tumbling below $50 a barrel, the eurozone lurching into deflation and copper prices crashing this week as the World Bank cut its global growth forecast.

"We're still not out of the woods yet in terms of the economic recovery," said Drzeniek-Hanouz.

Economic concerns among experts did not diminish year-on-year but were simply overtaken by geopolitical issues, she added.

Other major risks in terms of their likelihood of occurring include extreme weather events, the failure of states and governments, and continuing high structural unemployment, the report found.

The WEF's key opinion formers also rank risks in terms of the scale of their impact, rather than likelihood, and on this basis water crises and the rapid spread of infectious diseases come out as top dangers.

In all, the 80-page report analysed 28 global risks for the next 10 years. It comes ahead of the WEF's annual meeting in the Swiss ski resort of Davos from January 21 to 24, where the rich and powerful will ponder the planet's future.

Bringing together business leaders, politicians and central bankers, Davos has come to symbolise a modern globalised world dominated by successful multinational corporations.

That has made it a target for anti-globalisation campaigners, although the WEF argues it includes a wide range of voices from labour groups to religious leaders.

Separately, a Reuters polls showed on Thursday that Global economic growth will be modest at best this year as weak inflation persists, while a faltering eurozone and China could restrain it further.

The last few months have been marked by rapidly-cooling inflation, driven by a spectacular 60 per cent fall in oil prices since June, with consumer price rises in many cases far below stability targets set by central banks.

Indeed, eurozone inflation in December turned to overall price falls for the first time since 2009 and economists now see a 90 per cent probability the European Central Bank (ECB) will print money through government bond purchases, possibly as early as next week.

That prospect drove the Swiss National Bank on Thursday to abandon its more than three-year-old cap on the franc.

But even if the ECB does engage in sovereign debt purchases, it is not clear if it would make much difference given that euro bond yields are already so low and the currency weaker.

Economists polled over the past week by Reuters say the biggest risk to the global economy this year will be weaker growth than previously forecast in the eurozone and China, followed closely by disinflation in major economies.

"The global economy started the year by exposing some of the same uncertainties left by the year that just ended," said Diane Schumaker-Krieg, global head of research at Wells Fargo.

"The rest of the global economy is not doing much better than the eurozone, with Chinese economic growth expected to slow down further over the next several years," she added.

Overall, the poll showed the world economy will grow 3.5 per cent this year and 3.8 per cent in 2016, unchanged from October's forecasts.

The World Bank on Tuesday lowered its global growth forecast to just 3 per cent for 2015 and to 3.3 per cent for next year on a bleak outlook for the eurozone and Japan, which continue to face deflation fears.

It also warned world economic growth was "running on a single engine". The US economy, the world's largest, is forecast to have shifted into higher gear and economists expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to raise rates by June.

The Bank of England (BoE) also is expected to raise interest rates from a record low but economists were divided whether it would do so in the third or fourth quarter. Just three months ago the consensus was for a hike in the current quarter.

But low inflation in those countries has become a worry. Indeed, depressed inflation along with muted wage growth has pushed the market's implied tightening by the Fed and the BoE to much later than what economists are penciling in.

Will oil price bust boost?

 

A majority of economists in the poll said the steep fall in oil prices would be positive for global consumption. But not all of them were convinced.

"The collapse in the price of oil since the middle of last year is a consequence, primarily, of weaker demand rather than stronger supply as evidence of China's rapid slowdown continues to mount," said Oliver Jones, economist at Fathom Consulting.

"That is why it is unlikely to deliver the shot in the arm that many are hoping for," he added.

With the disinflationary trend gaining ground, the Reserve Bank of India surprised markets with a 25 basis point cut in interest rates on Thursday, ahead of a scheduled meeting next month.

Elsewhere, emerging market peers are expected to be on course for a difficult year ahead.

With collapsing oil and metal prices weighing on government finances and jeopardising investments, economists chopped 2015 growth forecasts again for all of Latin America's seven largest countries, from Mexico to Argentina.

Turkey also is on course for a bumpy 2015 despite a fall in inflation while a power crisis in South Africa will undermine investor confidence and crimp economic growth there.

Shell ends $6.5b Qatar project as oil price falls

By - Jan 14,2015 - Last updated at Jan 14,2015

DOHA — Qatar Petroleum and Royal Dutch Shell have scrapped plans for a petrochemicals project, worth an estimated $6.5 billion, due to the slump in global oil prices. In a statement issued on Wednesday, Shell said Al Karaana project would not go ahead because of the "high envisaged capital cost that has rendered it commercially unfeasible, particularly in the current economic climate prevailing in the energy industry". The joint venture between the Anglo-Dutch energy giant and state-owned Qatar Petroleum had been signed in December 2011. At the time, it was envisioned that a huge "world-scale petrochemicals complex" would be built in Ras Laffan, an industrial city some 80 kilometres north of Doha. The Qatari company was to own 80 per cent of the project, and Shell the remaining 20 per cent. Last year, it was reported that the project would be completed in 2018. However, the decision not to proceed was taken, said Shell, after "careful and thorough evaluation of commercial quotations". "The fall in oil prices is clearly playing its part," said analyst Keith Bowman at UK-based stockbroker Hargreaves Lansdown about the collapse of the project.

Egypt considers gas imports from Israel — minister

By - Jan 14,2015 - Last updated at Jan 14,2015

CAIRO — Egypt is open to importing gas from Israel, its oil minister said in state-owned media on Wednesday, another sign that it may lean on its neighbour to help tackle its energy troubles.

Egypt is going through its worst energy crisis in decades and is seeking fresh sources of natural gas, which powers most of its homes and factories, including Algeria, Russia and Cyprus.

But importing gas from Israel is more controversial. Popular mistrust of Israel runs high following three wars with Egypt and its continuing occupation of Palestinian land.

Oil Minister Sharif Ismail said gas imports from Israel were a possibility, when asked in an interview by the state-owned Al Mussawar magazine.

"Anything can happen. Whatever achieves the best interests of Egypt, and of the Egyptian economy and the role of Egypt in the region... That will determine the decision to import gas from Israel," he said.

Companies are already negotiating to bring Israeli gas to Egypt, but any deals will hinge on approval from Cairo.

Egypt became the first Arab country to sign a peace treaty with Israel in 1979, following three decades of intermittent conflict since Israel's creation in 1948.

While many Egyptians still view Israel with suspicion, relations have improved since the army toppled President Mohamed Morsi, an Islamist, in 2013 after mass protests against his rule.

The two countries also have a shared interest in containing the Hamas, which controls the Gaza Strip, and maintaining stability in the Sinai Peninsula where security has deteriorated since Morsi's ouster.

Egypt, which once exported gas to Israel and elsewhere, has become a net energy importer over the last few years.

The government has attempted to improve the energy landscape by slashing subsidies, paying down its debt to foreign energy firms, and negotiating import agreements.

The operators of Israel's offshore Tamar gas field said they had plans to build a pipeline to Egypt's liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant in the northeastern port of Damietta, run by a joint venture of Spain's Gas Natural and Italy's Eni .

Israel's Delek Drilling, one of the operating partners, said in November that if an agreement is signed, gas supplies to Egypt could start flowing in 2017.

Separately, Britain launched this week its largest trade mission to Egypt in over a decade, involving more than 40 companies from the top foreign investor in the Arab world's most populous country.

The meeting in a palace-turned-hotel focused on developing the energy, real estate and construction sectors, as well as drumming up foreign involvement in a vaunted expansion of the Suez Canal that aims to create an international commercial hub.

British Middle East Minister Tobias Ellwood said the mission demonstrates London's commitment to boost international investment in Egypt and increase bilateral trade.

"It is part of an ongoing programme of economic cooperation which will include more trade visits and UK participation in the March investment conference," he said, speaking alongside Egyptian Prime Minister Ibrahim Mahlab and referring to a larger international trade meeting planned for the spring.

Political unrest since the 2011 ouster of longtime autocrat Hosni Mubarak has battered the Egyptian economy, leaving the vital tourism industry in tatters and Cairo struggling to attract foreign investors.

Egypt has grown to rely on massive influxes of aid from Gulf nations such as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates to keep its economy afloat and buttress the state budget, which is deep in deficit.

The government is reforming investment laws in an attempt to improve transparency and slash Egypt's notorious red tape.

Several areas attract foreign investors, said Angus Blair, chairman of Mideast business consultancy Signet. He added that overcoming bureaucracy and boosting the visibility of projects in urban centres would help surmount hurdles.

"A number of sectors are interesting, first of all construction and infrastructure projects," as well as power, water, retailing and financial services, he indicated. "One of the key elements of change obviously are the developments around the Suez Canal."

The government says the $8.5 billion "mega-project”, based on digging additional waterways for the Suez Canal, could boost revenues from the route connecting the Red Sea to the Mediterranean to $13 billion annually from its current $5 billion.

States and institutions, Britain included, are encouraging Egypt to press ahead with its declared efforts at economic reform. The government has so far reduced its massive fuel subsidies and plans to phase them out entirely over five years, granting limited allowances only to needy private citizens.

An energy crunch that led to rolling summer blackouts following the 2011 revolt has driven a search for new resources and efficiency. 

Last year, the government began importing coal, and Electricity Minister Mohammed Shaker said at the conference that he was "very impressed by modern clean coal technologies" he saw on a recent trip to China.

"Nuclear energy is now being seriously studied," he said, adding, however, that it remains a politically sensitive issue.

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