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KUWAIT CITY — Kuwaiti Oil Minister Essam Al Marzouk on Sunday said the international crude market is expected to rebalance in the fourth quarter of 2018 after producers extended a deal to curb output.

Speaking on the sidelines of a meeting for the oil ministers of the Organisation of the Arab Petroleum Countries (OAPEC), Marzouk also said oil prices would maintain at “current levels”.

Producers from OPEC and non-OPEC members agreed on November 30 to extend a deal to cut output by 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) until the end of 2018.

The producing nations aim to reduce an oil supply glut that sent crude prices crashing.

As a result of the curbs, oil prices have doubled since dipping under $30 a barrel in early 2016.

Marzouk said OPEC would hold a crucial meeting in June to “review the production cuts deal... and the possibility of preparing a study to exit the output curbs”.

A Kuwaiti-chaired ministerial committee monitoring the market and compliance of the cuts would hold meetings every two months to assess the situation, the minister said.

Iraqi Oil Minister Jabbar Al Luaibi has said he expects oil prices to remain around $60 a barrel.

He said that Iraq’s production would hit five million bpd in the first quarter of next year.

PARIS () — France’s finance minister unveiled on Friday a decree that would make it the first nation in Europe to allow the trading of some non-listed securities using the blockchain technology that underpins cryptocurrencies.

The decree, presented by Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire to the government, should enter into force by July at the latest and will apply to non-listed financial securities that EU law doesn’t require to be traded via an intermediary, a market worth potentially more than 3 trillion euros.

In particular this includes shares in mutual and hedge funds, negotiable debt securities, and unlisted stocks and bonds.

Blockchain technology debuted in 2009 as a public, encrypted ledger for the digital currency bitcoin.

It has drawn interest from the established financial sector in recent years because of its potential for securely tracking transactions, allowing anyone to get an accurate accounting of money, property or other assets.

Blockchains record transactions as “blocks” that are updated in real time on a digitised ledger that can be read from anywhere and does not have a central recordkeeper. It is considered to be secure as all changes should be made simultaneously among all users.

“The use of this technology will permit fintechs and other financial actors to offer new solutions for exchanging securities, solutions that are faster, cheaper, more transparent and more secure,” Le Maire told journalists.

Fintechs are startups trying to shake up the financial sector via the introduction of new technology.

Le Maire said the decree “is a way of telling firms ‘come do live tests here, in a secure legal framework’”.

Becoming the first in Europe to authorise blockchain trading will increase the attractiveness of Paris for fintechs and encourage innovation, he added.

BEIJING — The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Thursday warned of brewing risks in China's banking system as it found dozens of crucial lenders needed to beef up their defences against possible financial crises.

The IMF report comes a day after regulators in Beijing drafted new rules to strengthen bank funding, and follows a number of alerts about a ballooning debt problem in the world's number-two economy.

Near the top of the list in the IMF study on the stability of China's financial system is the need for banks to increase their capital to ward off risks from mounting debt.

China has largely relied on debt-fuelled investment and exports to drive its tremendous economic growth, but the fund said this model has reached its limits.

Part of the problem lies in high growth targets, the IMF said, which incentivise local governments to extend credit and protect failing companies.

"We recommend the authorities to de-emphasise the GDP [growth]," Ratna Sahay, deputy director of the IMF's Monetary and Capital Markets Department, said during a news conference.
China should "incite local governments to strengthen supervision on risks", she added.

Abundant credit allows local governments to hit high growth figures but now each extra dollar of debt is producing diminishing returns.

The ballooning debt — estimated at 234 per cent of gross domestic product by the IMF — adds financial risk and may weigh on China's future economic growth.

"Credit growth is an important indicator of future financial distress, because lending standards often fall in the rush to make more loans," IMF experts warned in a blog post. 

Zombie companies 

The IMF’s experts carried out stress tests on dozens of banks. 

China's big four banks had adequate capital but "large, medium, and city-commercial banks appear vulnerable", the IMF said.

It added that 27 out of the 33 banks tested — accounting for three-quarters of China's banking system assets — were "undercapitalised relative to at least one of the minimum requirements".

While the country's banking system meets the requirements of global banking rules known as Basel III, "current circumstances warrant a targeted increase in capital", the report said.

"This would create a buffer to absorb potential losses that can be expected during the economic transition as credit is tightened and implicit guarantees are removed."

 China's central bank said it disagreed with "a few descriptions and views" in the report.

"The descriptions of the stress testing did not fully reflect the outcomes of the test," the People's Bank of China said on its website.

The China Banking Regulatory Commission on Wednesday released a draft of fresh rules to tackle related issues.

The latest regulations call for new indicators to monitor commercial banks' liquidity and set related requirements. 

They will "strengthen management of liquidity risk for banks and protect the safety and stability of the banking system", the commission said.

In some cases local banks face pressure to lend to politically important companies, as local governments aim to maintain high employment even if that means cash-bleeding enterprises continue to operate.

These loss-making firms, often state-owned, have come to be known as zombie companies, and banks and investors fund many of them as if they will not be allowed to fail.

"Implicit guarantees and the government's desire to support growth encourage these firms to invest excessively, raising already-high leverage while weakening performance on profitability and debt service capacity," the fund wrote in a recent report.

In October, it warned China's dependence on debt was growing at a "dangerous pace" and needed to act to avert a crisis.

That came weeks after the Bank for International Settlements — dubbed the bank of central banks — said the banking sector could be facing an imminent blowout, raising worries about its effect on the world economy.

The IMF's latest assessment said financial engineering helped banks obscure the potential losses.

"Implicit guarantees to SOEs [state-owned enterprises] need to be removed carefully and gradually," Sahay said. 

"It would be wise to have a high-level committee to monitor the risks across all sectors."

PARIS — Several countries protested on Wednesday against their inclusion on a European Union tax haven blacklist, with some calling the move “unfair” and others accusing Brussels of “meddling”.

The EU on Tuesday unveiled a list containing 17 non-EU states a year on from the leak of the “Panama Papers” — a massive amount of data from a prominent Panamanian law firm showing how the world’s wealthy stash assets.

South Korea, Macau, Mongolia, Tunisia and Namibia on Wednesday joined Panama in condemning the EU move.

Panama protested late Tuesday by recalling its ambassador to the EU for consultations with President Juan Carlos Varela, slamming the measure as “unfair” while economy and finance minister, Dulcidio De La Guardia, tweeted his rejection of an “arbitrary and discriminatory” decision.

South Korea’s finance ministry also reacted angrily after it too was placed on the list.

“The EU said that a number of tax subsidy measures offered by the South Korean government on foreign investments, including those at our free economic zone, could be considered ‘preferential tax regime’.”

“But the decision by the EU not only runs counter to international standards including the OECD standards, as well as international agreement but also may infringe upon tax sovereignty,” said the ministry.

The ministry insisted that South Korea had “demonstrated a high level of transparency in taxation operations” hence would “actively respond” to the EU move.

Misunderstanding 

Mongolia’s finance minister dubbed his country’s inclusion as a “misunderstanding”.

“This is a misunderstanding. We are not on an offshore list,” Khurelbaatar Chimed told AFP. 

He said his country had only been named because “it is difficult to have tax-related information and data” after Brussels contacted his ministry in June for information about European residents with bank accounts or investments there. 

“The EU decision showed us that we need to... build a transparent tax system and to connect with other countries.” Gambling hub Macau also objected to its designation, saying the decision is “one-sided and does not reflect the real situation”.

A government statement said the semi-autonomous southern Chinese city had been “actively cooperating” with the international community including the EU to combat cross-border tax evasion.

 ‘Meddling’ 

A Tunisian official told AFP the country was included notably over tax advantages for exporting companies based on its territory.

The official stressed that “Tunisia refuses all meddling in its fiscal policy” and stressed its determination to maintain the advantageous tax regime for such firms.

Tunisia’s bosses federation Utica expressed “surprise” at the EU decision it termed “dangerous” while urging dialogue with Brussels to resolve the issue.

Namibia, meanwhile, called its inclusion on the list “unjust, prejudiced, partisan, discriminatory and biased”, according to Finance Minister Calle Schlettwein.

“Namibia is clearly, by any objective criteria, not a tax haven,” he said.

No sanctions are in the offing for those countries named and shamed, though some EU members, including France, want tough measures including possibly an exclusion from World Bank or EU funding.

GENEVA, Switzerland  — The International Air Transport Association (IATA) forecasts global aviation net profit to increase by around 11 per cent to reach $38.4 billion in 2018, Brian Pearce, chief IATA economist said on Tuesday.  

Speaking to journalists at IATA Global Media Day, Pearce attributed the increase to solid and strong demand, efficiency and reduced interest payments.   

This will make 2018 the fourth consecutive year of sustainable profit, according to IATA.

Airlines across the world, with the exception of carriers in Africa, are expected to generate profit in 2018. The Middle East is no exception; its carriers are forecast to see net profit improve to $600 million — up from $300 million this year.

In 2018, demand on Mideast airlines is expected to grow by 7 per cent, “outpacing announced capacity expansion of 4.9 per cent”, yet it is “the slowest growth since 2002”, according to the association media sources. 

Challenges faced by the region’s carriers are low oil revenues, regional conflicts, crowded air space, travel restrictions to the US and competition from the “super connector”, Turkish Airlines, according to IATA; however, positive momentum is expected to continue into 2018.

North American airlines are expected to have the strongest financial performance next year with a net profit of $16.4 billion (up from $15.6 this year).  

For Europe, profit is forecast to reach $11.5 billion, up from $9.8 billion this year while the sector profit for the Asia-Pacific region will amount to $9 billion, compared to $8.3 billion this year. 

Latin America will also see higher profit, envisaged at $900 million up from $799 million in 2017. 

“These are good times for the global air transport industry. Safety performance is solid. We have a clear strategy that is delivering results on environmental performance. More people than ever are travelling. The demand for air cargo is at its strongest level in over a decade. 

More routes are being opened. Airlines are achieving sustainable levels of profitability,” said IATA’s Director General/CEO Alexandre de Juniac.

But to stay profitable, airlines need to stay safe, so safety was stressed at this year’s IATA media day.

It “is our top priority”, said de Juniac, stressing that “aviation is still the safest way to travel long distances”.

With 4 billion people and 60 million tonnes of cargo expected to be flown this year –activities critical to the global economy — it is no wonder that a high premium is placed on safety.

BEIJING — Visiting Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Chinese Premier Li Keqiang signed three trade agreements on Monday as Ottawa tries to diversify commercial ties amid tough North America Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) negotiations with Washington.

At a ceremony in Beijing’s Great Hall of the People, the two leaders signed an action plan on energy cooperation as well as two memoranda of understanding on food products and a “Canada learning initiative”. 

The details of the agreements are unclear.

The two sides also agreed that Canadian beef and pork will have greater access to the Chinese market and will continue to work on new standards for Canadian exports of canola to China.

“Canada is and always has been a trading nation, but the landscape of trade is shifting and we need to adjust,” Trudeau told reporters after the signing ceremony. 

“China will soon be the largest market in the world. It’s home to one billion potential customers for the high-quality goods and services that Canadians deliver every day.”

Li told Trudeau it was rare for China to have such a “close, intimate relationship” with another nation. 

“China and Canada are entering ... a golden age in our relationship. We have a lot to offer each other. We are ready for closer cooperation,” Li told reporters. 

The premier visited Ottawa in September last year, when the two sides agreed to double bilateral commerce by 2025.

During his December 3-7 official visit, Trudeau will meet government and business leaders as part of Canada’s push to diversify its trade, the bulk of which is currently with the United States.

Trudeau has said he also plans full and frank discussions on “issues like good governance, human rights, and the rule of law”.

The visit to China is Trudeau’s second since he came to power two years ago, and comes as trilateral talks with the United States and Mexico to revamp the North American Free Trade Agreement appear to be headed towards deadlock.

Canada and Mexico staunchly oppose US proposals for a NAFTA sunset clause, minimum US content in car parts and nixing of the pact’s trade dispute mechanism.

The US has adopted a more protectionist tone under President Donald Trump and his “America First” policy.

Beijing, meanwhile, has openly courted increased trade with Canada. Li said the two countries would continue exploratory talks and feasibility studies on a free trade agreement. 

China is currently Canada’s second-largest trading partner, far behind the United States, with annual bilateral trade worth more than Can$85 billion ($67 billion).

During the visit to Beijing and Guangzhou, Trudeau will also meet President Xi Jinping and Zhang Dejiang, chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress, or legislature.

The prime minister is popular in China, where citizens have affectionately nicknamed him “Little potato”, as his surname sounds similar to the word “potato” in Mandarin. 

His father, who established diplomatic ties with China in 1970, was named “senior potato”. 

Internet users on domestic social media platforms focused on Trudeau’s appearance, with one commentator hailing him as “the most handsome foreign leader”. 

WUZHEN, China — Apple Inc’s chief executive Tim Cook said developers using its platform in China number 1.8 million and have earned a total 112 billion yuan ($16.93 billion), representing roughly a quarter of total global App Store earnings.

Cook shared the data on Sunday during a speech at China’s top public cyber policy forum, organised by the Cybersecurity Administration of China (CAC), which oversees Internet regulation including censorship. 

Earlier this year, Apple said that developers had earned roughly $70 billion in total revenue through the store.

Apple is facing criticism from local users and rights groups for bowing to pressure from Beijing cyber regulators after it decided to remove hundreds of apps from its Chinese store this year, including messaging apps and virtual private network (VPN) services, which help users subvert China’s Great Firewall. 

Apple counts China as its third-largest region by sales but it has lost market share in recent years as high-end handsets from local rivals continue to gain traction. The firm is hoping to regain momentum following the release of its iPhone 8 and iPhone X models which shipped in November. 

The US tech giant said earlier it had moved its Chinese cloud data onto the servers of a local partner in the Chinese province of Guizhou. 

Cook has come to China several times this year, including an October visit where he was among executives that met with President Xi Jinping, who also had prepared remarks read at the conference on Sunday. 

Cook’s attendance is conspicuous at the conference, marking the first high-level executive to attend in the event’s four-year history.

Others included Google chief executive Sundar Pichai, who is also attending the conference for the first time. 

LONDON — Ministers of the Oraganisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and their allies have agreed to extend their production pact all the way to the end of 2018 but with a review in June that will take into account market conditions and progress towards rebalancing.

The outcome represents a successful compromise between de facto OPEC leader Saudi Arabia (which wanted to announce an extension throughout 2018) and non-OPEC heavyweight Russia (which wanted to avoid giving such a long commitment).

The decision was in line with traders’ expectations and there has been little change in either outright crude prices or calendar spreads since the decision was announced on Thursday.

As a practical matter, it makes little difference whether the decision is described as a nine-month extension from the end of March, when the current cuts were scheduled to expire; or a three-month extension from March to June with the option of extending them until December 2018.

The compromise allows ministers to signal a resolve to do whatever it takes to rebalance the market (a Saudi priority) while preserving flexibility to adapt to changing market conditions (a Russian one).

Critically, it recognises the oil market has already made significant progress towards rebalancing but also that there is uncertainty about how quickly the process will be completed 

Saudi Arabia’s oil minister, Khalid Al Falih, said on Thursday the excess of OECD oil stocks over the five-year average had already shrunk from 280 million barrels in May to just 140 million in October.

Crude oil in floating storage has fallen by 50 million barrels since June, and products stocks are already down to their five-year average.

Both Brent and WTI have flipped from contango into backwardation for the first time since 2014, Falih noted, indicating the market’s move towards a more balanced condition.

“Market stability has improved and the sentiment is generally upbeat. The rebalancing trend has accelerated and inventories are generally on a declining trend,” Falih concluded.

Rebalancing is now more than half-way completed, he said, but the market is moving towards the seasonally weak, low-demand period through the second quarter of 2018.

For Saudi Arabia, therefore, the emphasis was on maintaining production discipline to get the job finished and avoid a renewed slump in oil prices. “We must stay the course,” Falih urged his colleagues.

Russia, however, has begun to worry about what comes next once rebalancing has been achieved.

Brent prices are already trading well near $64 per barrel, the average for the whole of the last cycle from 1998 to 2016. In real terms, the average Brent price in 2017 will be in line with the median since 1973.

The Brent spread is now well into the upper half of its full cycle range, and the backwardation is firmly established, which points to a market that is no longer significantly oversupplied.

If OECD stocks were to decline to the five-year average, the market would almost certainly feel uncomfortably tight, given the enormous growth in oil consumption since 2012.

Oil prices and calendar spreads would rise further, and the shift could be very rapid. Rising prices would encourage a sharp increase in drilling and production from the US shale sector.

As Falih acknowledged, the pace of rebalancing has accelerated, which is normal cyclical behaviour, because supply-demand-stocks-prices dynamics in the oil market are highly non-linear.

If OPEC waits before adjusting production until stocks have fallen close to the five-year average and the market has fully rebalanced, it will risk a spike in both prices and spreads to the upside.

Prices and spreads overshot following both the previous OPEC-led efforts at oil market rebalancing after the slumps of 1998/99 and 2008/09.

For Saudi Arabia, which needs higher oil revenues to fund its ambitious transformation programme, and higher prices to secure a favourable price for the Aramco share listing, overshooting might not be a problem.

But Russia needs the extra revenue less and is more worried about losing market share in Europe and Asia to competition from rising US shale oil exports.

The compromise allows both sides to claim a measure of victory, with Saudi Arabia getting a nine-month extension and Russia obtaining an explicit commitment to review after three months.

The bottom line is that OPEC and its allies are committed to maintaining current production levels through the end of June 2018.

The pact may be extended until the end of 2018, with or without modifications, depending on the level of stocks and prices when the review is conducted in the middle of next year.

VIENNA —  The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) agreed on Thursday to extend oil output cuts until the end of 2018 as it tries to finish clearing a global glut of crude. OPEC also signalled it could exit the deal earlier if the market overheats.

Non-OPEC Russia, which this year reduced production significantly with OPEC for the first time, has been pushing for a clear message on how to exit the cuts so the market does not flip into a deficit too soon, prices do not rally too fast and rival US shale firms do not boost output further.

The producers’ current deal, under which they are cutting supply by about 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) in an effort to boost oil prices, expires in March.

Two OPEC delegates told Reuters the group had agreed to extend the cuts by nine months until the end of 2018, as largely anticipated by the market.

OPEC also decided to cap the output of Nigeria at around 1.8 million bpd but had yet to agree a cap for Libya. Both countries have been previously exempt from cuts due to unrest and lower-than-normal production.

OPEC was still scheduled to meet with non-OPEC producers led by Russia after (15:00 GMT).

Before the meeting of the organisation member states started at its headquarters in Vienna on Thursday, Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al Falih said it was premature to talk about exiting the cuts at least for a couple of quarters and added that the group would examine progress at its next meeting in June.

“When we get to an exit, we are going to do it very gradually... to make sure we don’t shock the market,” he said.

The Iraqi, Iranian and Angolan oil ministers also said a review of the deal was possible in June in case the market became too tight.

International benchmark Brent crude rose more than 1 per cent on Thursday to trade near $64 per barrel.

Capping Nigeria, Libya 

With oil prices rising above $60, Russia has expressed concerns that such an extension could prompt a spike in crude production in the United States, which is not participating in the deal.

Russia needs much lower oil prices to balance its budget than OPEC’s leader Saudi Arabia, which is preparing a stock market listing for national energy champion Aramco next year and would hence benefit from pricier crude.

“Prices will be well supported in December with a large global stock draw. The market could surprise to the upside with even $70 per barrel for Brent not out of the question if there is an unexpected interruption in supply,” said Gary Ross, a veteran OPEC watcher and founder of Pira consultancy.

The production cuts have been in place since the start of 2017 and helped halve an excess of global oil stocks although those remain at 140 million barrels above the five-year average, according to OPEC.

Russia has signalled it wants to understand better how producers will exit from the cuts as it needs to provide guidance to its private and state energy companies. 

“It is important... to work out a strategy which we will follow from April 2018,” Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said on Wednesday.