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LONDON - The European Union has indicated that it is willing to provide some form of access for Britain's vast financial services industry after Brexit, the City minister John Glen said on Monday.

Glen said the transition deal agreed by Britain and the EU last month allows financial firms to move forward and plan for the future with confidence.

"The fog is clearing ... We are already seeing progress," Glen told the CityWeek conference in the Square Mile's Guildhall. "The EU have now recognised that there will be some form of market access in financial services having previously dismissed the idea."

Britain's vast financial services looks set to be one of the most divisive areas in the Brexit negotiations, with Britain demanding a generous deal while the EU refuses to shift from its insistence that Britain's red lines -- such as ending the free movement of workers from the EU -- make that impossible.

Britain has proposed a future trade deal with the bloc for financial services based on mutual recognition of each other's regulation. This model would be maintained by close co-operation between regulators and financial policymakers.

But so far EU policymakers have so far rejected the idea, saying it has never been done before on such a scale.

Catherine McGuinness, policy chief for the City of London, home to the Square Mile financial district, said mutual recognition is the "only game in town".

The alternative is a one-sided system whereby the bloc grants market access if a foreign country's rules are fully aligned with its own. Such access can also be terminated by Brussels at short notice.

Anthony Belchambers, chairman of Saxo Capital Markets, said there is still a question of whether the EU has the political will to agree to mutual recognition.

Market access will involve accepting EU rules to some extent, a step pro-Brexit lawmakers in Britain dismiss.

"The reality is if you want access, it's going to come at a price. You have to be rational about all this," Belchambers said.

Meanwhile, banks, insurers and asset managers are already moving staff to new hubs in the EU to be sure of maintaining links with customers there, regardless of what is agreed in trading terms.

Some EU policymakers fear that Britain will ease rules for banks in a bid to keep London as a dominant global financial centre after Britain leaves the EU next March.

Glen dismissed talk of a "race to the bottom", a move that would make it much harder for Britain to secure access to the EU's financial market.

"We do not intend to rip up the rulebook after Brexit," he said.

WASHINGTON  — The World Bank's shareholders on Saturday endorsed a $13 billion paid-in capital increase that will boost China's shareholding but bring lending reforms that will raise borrowing costs for higher-middle-income countries, including China.

The multilateral lender said the plan would allow it to lift the group's overall lending to nearly $80 billion in fiscal 2019 from about $59 billion last year and to an average of about $100 billion annually through 2030.

"We have more than doubled the capacity of the World Bank Group," the institution's president, Jim Yong Kim, told reporters during the International Monetary Fund and World Bank Spring meetings in Washington.

"It's a huge vote of confidence, but the expectations are enormous."

The hard-fought capital hike, initially resisted by the Trump administration, will add $7.5 billion paid-in capital for the World Bank's main concessional lending arm, the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD).

Its commercial-terms lender, the International Finance Corp. (IFC), will get $5.5 billion paid-in capital, while the IBRD will get a $52.6 billion increase in callable capital.

Lending reforms 

The bank agreed to change IBRD's lending rules to charge higher rates for developing countries with higher incomes, to discourage them from excessive borrowing.

IBRD previously had charged similar rates for all borrowers, and US Treasury officials had complained that it was lending too much to China and other bigger emerging markets.

US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said earlier on Saturday that he supported the capital hike due to the reforms that it included. The last World Bank capital increase came in 2010. 

The current hike comes with cost controls and salary restrictions that will hold World Bank compensation to "a little below average" for the financial sector, Kim said. 

He added that there was nothing specific in the agreement that targeted a China lending reduction, but he said lending to China was expected to gradually decline.

In 2015, China founded the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, and lends heavily to developing countries through its government export banks.

The agreement will lift China's shareholding in IBRD to 6.01 per cent from 4.68 per cent, while the US share would dip slightly to 16.77 per cent from 16.89 per cent. Washington will still keep its veto power over IBRD and IFC decisions.

Kim said the increase was expected to become fully effective by the time the World Bank's new fiscal year starts on July 1. Countries will have up to eight years to pay for the capital increase.

The US contribution is subject to approval by Congress. 

WASHINGTON — Trade tensions between the United States and China, which threaten to spill over into the global economy, are dominating a gathering of world finance officials even as the Group of 20 (G-20) avoided the topic on Friday.

Official after official has called for disputes to be resolved through dialogue rather than unilateral tariffs, and warned about the threat to the economic recovery.

French Economy Minister Bruno Le Maire criticised what he called a "vain and pointless" spat with China.

"We run the risk of trade war. We run the risk of multilateral order breaking down that is good for no one, and most definitely not for the world economy and growth," Le Maire told reporters during the Spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

But US President Donald Trump's top finance official said the fault lies with countries that employ unfair trade policies.

"We strongly believe that unfair global trade practices impede stronger US and global growth, acting as a persistent drag on the global economy," US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said in a statement to the IMF.

While IMF chief Christine Lagarde has offered the fund as a forum to resolve differences, Mnuchin instead said the IMF "should be a strong voice" in urging members "to dismantle trade and non-tariff barriers and to protect intellectual property rights".

Le Maire agreed China must respect the rules, but said the country is a key part of the world trading system.

"We must redefine international trade with China, not against China."

Theft of American intellectual property and technology has been a key irritant in the dispute with Beijing, which prompted President Donald Trump to announce steep tariffs on tens of billions of dollars' worth of Chinese goods, on top of last month's punitive duties on steel that were primarily targeted at China as well.

Washington and Beijing have traded tariff threats and also filed complaints against each other at the World Trade Organisation (WTO).

WTO Director Roberto Azevedo warned that the effects of a major escalation "could be serious", and poor countries would be the collateral damage.

"A breakdown in trade relations among major players could derail the recovery that we have seen in recent years, threatening the ongoing economic expansion and putting many jobs at risk," he said in a statement to the meetings.

The IMF has highlighted the trade tensions as a major downside risk to the otherwise solid global recovery, and Lagarde said the dispute undermines confidence and creates uncertainty that could choke off investment which has been a prime engine of the global recovery.

The WTO projects global merchandise trade will expand by 4.4 per cent this year, after increasing by 4.7 per cent in 2017.

 Despite the intense focus on the US-China dispute, the G-20 finance ministers, from the world's major economies, avoided discussion of the issue on Friday, even while acknowledging the potential danger it posed to the global economy.

"We didn't have a discussion on specific measures on trade," Argentine Treasury Minister Nicolas Dujovne told reporters after the meeting. "The G-20 is not the place to discuss specific measures. That's the WTO."

It was a surprising omission for the group that was key to shepherding the global economy through the 2008 financial crisis and preventing another depression.

But Dujovne said, "We have to also recognise the limitations that we as a group have... and try to find a consensus even if the consensus is more limited than we want."

The ministers did express concern over the growth of "inward looking policies", he said, using a frequent euphemism for trade protectionism.

But German central bank chief Jens Weidmann said the G-20 officials all agreed trade must benefit all countries.

"Protectionism, not to mention a trade war, is certainly not the solution."

Le Maire repeated his criticism of the US tariffs on steel and aluminum which were aimed at China but only spared the EU and other key trading partners under a temporary exemption that is due to expire May 1.

As close allies in the EU "we expect not only temporary exemption but a full and permanent exemption", he said.

"We cannot live with a kind of sword of Damocles hanging over our heads."

LONDON — Oil surged on Thursday close to 3.5-year peaks on simmering Mideast tensions and keen US demand, while London stocks rose with drugmaker Shire boosted by a takeover move.

World oil prices extended Wednesday's gains on the back of data showing a drop in US stockpiles — indicating improved demand — and expectations that a Russia-OPEC output cap deal will be kept in place.

The market was also propelled after OPEC kingpin reportedly stated it wanted crude prices to top $80 per barrel as it prepares for a gigantic listing of part of its state oil company. Tensions in the oil-rich Middle East also kept prices elevated.

"Saudi Arabia still calls the shots on global oil markets, and it is increasingly obvious the Saudis are comfortable with oil at $80 or more," said Interactive Investor analyst Lee Wild.

"Add a drop in weekly US oil reserves to the mix and the only way for crude prices is up."

Oil surged to summits last seen in November 2014, with London Brent striking $74.74 per barrel and New York crude touching $69.56.

European equity markets, meanwhile, diverged amid lingering fears over Syria and a possible China-US trade war, but London edged 0.04 per cent higher despite news of sliding March retail sales.

Wall Street opened lower, with the Dow dropping 0.2 per cent in the first minute of trading.

The British capital's benchmark FTSE 100 index was given an early shot in the arm from media reports, later confirmed, that Japan's Takeda Pharmaceuticals was making a takeover move on Shire.

Shire, which is based in Ireland and listed on the London stock market, saw its share price rocket more than 10 per cent higher.

It gave up much of those gains after Takeda confirmed it had made a takeover bid worth £42 billion ($60 billion), but that Shire had rejected the offer. 

Shire said it had rejected three offers from Takeda, and was still in discussions with the firm about "whether a further, more attractive, proposal may be forthcoming".

Asian markets enjoyed another day of gains Thursday as the region's energy firms also tracked a surge in oil prices.

Fresh hopes that Donald Trump and North Korea's leader Kim Jong-un will hold a historic summit within months also provided some much-needed optimism.

WASHINGTON — The International Monetary Fund (IMF) urged central banks on Wednesday to take a gradual and transparent approach to tightening monetary policy, warning that unexpected moves could shock the global economy.

The fund cautioned that investors and financial markets expect a steady approach to monetary tightening based on the belief inflation will remain relatively tame. 

But the IMF pointed to some fragilities in global finance after a lengthy period of easy money policies and low interest rates, including a flood of high-risk bonds, record-high debt levels and lofty prices for risky assets.

If conditions change abruptly that could even derail the economic recovery, the fund warned.

"Financial vulnerabilities, which have accumulated during years of extremely low rates and volatility, could make the road ahead bumpy and could put growth at risk," the IMF said in its Global Financial Stability Report, a twice-annual analysis.

For example, a sudden acceleration of inflation in the United States could lead the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates more quickly than currently expected.

Tobias Adrian, director for the IMF's Monetary and Capital Markets Department, acknowledged that uncertainty about inflation is currently "very low", but warned that markets could have an outsized reaction to any spike.

Other factors also could hit markets, including US-China trade tensions, which the IMF flagged as one of the most concerning risks to global recovery in a separate report released on Tuesday.

Adrian said talk of a US-China trade war had not so far significantly affected financial conditions, even as jitters sent global share prices lower.

"In recent weeks, discussions around trade have increased investor uncertainty and as a result financial conditions have tightened somewhat, but remain easy," he told reporters.

"What we are flagging is that at some point markets see shocks in inflation that raise inflation uncertainty and when that happens" rates could rise quickly and financial conditions would tighten, he said.

Emerging markets would be especially vulnerable to "spillovers" if that happens, the report cautioned. "Gradual and well-telegraphed" moves by advanced economy central banks have so far been favourable for emerging economies, but financial flows could fall by "at least one-quarter" if central banks mishandle the transition, the fund said.

The analysis is the latest to tackle the myriad policymaking challenges as the world moves towards ending a long period of low interest rates and monetary stimulus enacted after the 2008 financial crisis.

The US Federal Reserve has undertaken a series of interest rate hikes over the last two and a half years, and the European Central Bank has signaled it plans to soon end its stimulus programme.

While these moves are necessary, central banks should "maintain accommodation as needed" and raise rates in "a gradual and well-communicated manner", the fund said.

"Gradualism and clear communications are crucial given the confluence of still relatively low inflation, easy global financial conditions, and rising financial vulnerabilities," the report said.

WASHINGTON — The global economy is expected to grow at a solid pace through next year, boosted by faster expansion in the United States and Europe, but after that risks will build, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Tuesday.

In the latest update to its World Economic Outlook, the IMF still predicts world growth of 3.9 per cent in 2018 and 2019, unchanged from January despite raised estimates for US and EU growth. 

That is an improvement on the 3.8 per cent global growth seen last year.

However, the Fund cautions that the growth "momentum is not assured", given trade tensions between the United States and China and the expected reversal of the positive effects from the US tax cuts.

IMF chief economist Maurice Obstfeld stressed that the trade conflict could damage the global economy if it broadens to affect other countries, and said even the prospect of a trade war could do harm.

"There's not going to be any winners coming out of a trade war," he told reporters, noting that the uncertainty alone could put a damper on investment.

While it is difficult to predict how things will play out, "I suspect if you keep poking at economic expansion it could turn around and bite you," Obstfeld warned.

The report notes that the sweeping US tax cuts approved in December will fuel higher growth only through next year, and after that will "subtract momentum".

The IMF raised its US forecast by two tenths for both years, to 2.9 per cent for 2018 and 2.7 per cent for 2019, which follows big upward revisions in the October report, due to the tax impact.

However, Obstfeld warned the stimulus was "largely temporary".

Because the US boost accounts for most of the higher world expansion, beyond 2019 "global growth is projected to gradually decline to 3.7 per cent by the end of the forecast horizon", the report said.

Risks to the downside 

The risks to the global economic outlook "clearly lean to the downside" beyond the next few quarters, the IMF warns. 

Like other advanced economies, the United States will max out growth and return to a more sluggish pace, "held back by aging populations and lackluster productivity".

Despite the fact increasing world trade helped boost growth in recent years, there has been a rise in public scepticism about the benefits, leading to a renegotiation of trade deals and increasing friction.

US President Donald Trump last month imposed steep tariffs on steel and aluminum imports and threatened to impose more on tens of billions of Chinese goods, prompting Beijing to slap duties on US goods like pork and sorghum and threaten even more sensitive US exports like soy.

"That major economies are flirting with trade war at a time of widespread economic expansion may seem paradoxical — especially when the expansion is so reliant on investment and trade," Obstfeld said. 

"Our strong message at this meeting is there is a multilateral system. Let's use it and proceed in a collaborative way rather than conflictive way."

IMF chief Christine Lagarde last week warned governments to "steer clear of protectionism in all its forms", saying the trade frictions hurt poor consumers the most as costs increase, and that they also undermined a system that had broadened prosperity worldwide.

Instead, the IMF argues that the United States and others should respond to anxiety about globalisation and technological advances by "strengthening growth, spreading its benefits more widely, [and] broadening economic opportunity through investments in people", Obstfeld said.

Rather than lower the trade deficit, as Trump has called for, the US trade actions could expand it by another $150 billion by 2019, according to the report.

Market disruption 

The fund warns that a worsening of trade conflict could have broader implications for global growth as well as market confidence.

The report cites the market turbulence in early February and into March amid the growing US-China trade dispute, when US stocks stumbled after surging to repeat records in the first weeks of 2018. The Dow had lost almost 10 per cent of its value by the end of March, down from the record 26,616.71 reached on January 26.

The rapid decline should "serve as a cautionary reminder that asset prices can correct rapidly and trigger potentially disruptive portfolio adjustments".

In other projections, the IMF upgraded the forecast for the euro area to 2.4 per cent for 2018, an upward revision of two tenths compared to the January estimate, as it raised its estimates for key members, especially Spain. But the forecast for 2019 was unchanged at 2 per cent.

Japan's growth is still seen at a sluggish 1.2 per cent this year, after a rare and large upgrade of five tenths in January, slowing to 0.9 per cent in 2019.

The forecasts for China and India, key drivers of global growth, were unchanged from January. China is expected to expand 6.6 per cent and 6.4 per cent this year and next, while India should grow 7.4 per cent and 7.8 per cent.

WASHINGTON — The US Department of Commerce is banning American companies from selling components to leading Chinese telecom equipment maker ZTE Corp. for seven years for violating the terms of a sanctions violation case, US officials said on Monday.

The Chinese company, a top smartphone seller in the United States, pleaded guilty last year in federal court in Texas for conspiring to violate US sanctions by illegally shipping US goods and technology to Iran. It paid $890 million in fines and penalties, with an additional penalty of $300 million that could be imposed.

As part of the agreement, Shenzhen-based ZTE Corp. promised to dismiss four senior employees and discipline 35 others by either reducing their bonuses or reprimanding them, senior Commerce Department officials told Reuters. But the Chinese company admitted in March that while it had fired the four senior employees, it had not disciplined or reduced bonuses to the 35 others.

ZTE "provided information back to us basically admitting that they had made these false statements", said a senior department official. "That was in response to the US asking for the information".

"We can't trust what they are telling us is truthful," the official said. "And in international commerce, truth is pretty important".

ZTE officials did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Douglas Jacobson, an exports control lawyer who represents suppliers to ZTE, called the ban highly unusual and said it would severely affect the company. 

"This will be devastating to the company, given their reliance on US products and software," said Jacobson. "It's certainly going to make it very difficult for them to produce and will have a potentially significant short and long-term negative impact on the company."

"This is going to tank their stock," Jacobson added.

ZTE has sold handset devices to US mobile carriers AT&T Inc., T-Mobile US Inc. and Sprint Corp. It has relied on US companies, including Qualcomm Inc, Microsoft Corp. and Intel Corp. for components.

The US action against ZTE is likely to further exacerbate current tensions between Washington and Beijing over trade. After the US placed export restrictions on ZTE in 2016 for Iran sanctions violations, the China's Ministry of Commerce and Foreign Ministry criticised the decision.

A five-year federal investigation found last year that ZTE had conspired to evade US embargoes by buying US components, incorporating them into ZTE equipment and illegally shipping them to Iran.

ZTE, which devised elaborate schemes to hide the illegal activity, agreed to plead guilty after the Commerce Department took actions that threatened to cut off its global supply chain.

The US government had allowed the company continued access to the US market under the 2017 agreement. American companies are estimated to provide 25 per cent to 30 per cent of the components used in ZTE's equipment, which includes networking gear and smartphones.

The US government's investigation into sanctions violations by ZTE followed reports by Reuters in 2012 that the company had signed contracts to ship millions of dollars' worth of hardware and software from some of the best known US technology companies to Iran's largest telecoms carrier.

LONDON — Gold and oil will extend their gains on Monday, albeit modestly, when the markets open for the first time since Western powers launched a missile attack on Syria, but equities and bonds are unlikely to suffer big losses unless the West strikes again or Russia retaliates.

"The newsflow is actually better than what it looked like at one point during last week as the strike was surgical, followed by a pullback. Reports show a lot of care was taken not to hit Russian targets, which is a good sign and the market should take heart from that," said Salman Ahmed, chief investment strategist at Lombard Odier investment managers in London.

Gold has benefited in recent days as a safe-haven asset amid a US-China trade dispute and the escalating conflict in Syria, which also pushed oil above $70 per barrel due to concerns about a spike in Middle Eastern tensions.

World stocks wobbled last week but still ended with the best weekly gain in over a month, as investors await potentially healthy US company earnings.

Despite heightened geo-political risks, the impact on so-called safe-haven assets has been short-lived and modest — while the yen rose initially on fears of a Syrian strike, it ended near seven-week lows to the dollar last week.

On Saturday, US, French and British missile attacks struck at the heart of Syria's chemical weapons programme in retaliation for a suspected poison gas attack a week ago.

Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst at Think Markets, said gold was poised to gain on Monday but the rally would not be very steep: "The focus will be on the counter-reaction from Russia."

Gold, often used as a store of value in times of political and economic uncertainty, could rally towards $1,400 per ounce after two consecutive weeks of gains.

"If we do break above $1,365 that next week we would be very bullish," said Aslam.

Others were less convinced of the market's ability to gain much further ground.

"I think the strikes were well targeted, and as such gold market impact will be minimal as it will be hard to justify a major retaliation," said a trader at a leading bullion bank.

Tokyo will be the first major market to open on Monday and the yen will likely strengthen to the dollar, but not beyond 106.50, said Itsuo Toshima, market analyst at Toshima & Associates adding that he didn't expect stocks traders to take sharp moves tomorrow.

"The first attack was within expectations and was already priced in the market ... However, if there is second round of strikes, which is not in line with expectations. So that should prompt a sharp risk-off move in markets. Stocks will plunge, the yen and the oil prices will surge," he added.

Frank Benzimra, head of global markets for Asia Pacific at Societe Generale Corporate and Investment Banking, also said stocks were set to plunge only in case of new strikes by Western powers.

In case of such an escalation, energy-related assets should outperform Asia markets, oil would rally further, the yen would spike and Japan's domestic defensive stocks would outperform international stocks.

"For the stress on Asia equity markets to be sustainable we would need to have oil prices spiking to such a level that fundamental concerns, i.e. higher inflation and risks on growth, return to the market," he said.

Amrita Sen from Energy Aspects said that despite Middle Eastern tensions and looming new US sanctions on Iran, she believed oil has outperformed most expectations this year and may have rallied too far too fast.

"We are likely to get a sell-off this week as the extent of the Syrian strikes have been muted and, in general, calmer nerves prevail in Washington," she said.

LONDON — Oil prices edged off highs last reached in late 2014 due to rising US stocks but remained well supported by mounting geopolitical tension in the Middle East. Also, shrinking global oil inventories and expectations of a supply cut extension by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) played a role.

Brent crude futures were at $71.84 a barrel at (13:15 GMT) on Thursday, down 22 cents from their last close. US WTI crude futures were down 12 cents at $66.70.

Both Brent and WTI on Wednesday hit their highest since late 2014 at $73.09 and $67.45 a barrel respectively after Saudi Arabia said it intercepted missiles over Riyadh and US President Donald Trump warned Russia of imminent military action in Syria.

On Thursday, OPEC said the global oil stocks surplus was close to evaporating due to healthy energy demand and its own supply cuts.

US shale oil output has been booming over the past year since OPEC reduced its own production in tandem with Russia to prop up global oil prices.

But as oil production collapsed in OPEC member Venezuela and is still facing hiccups in countries such as Libya and Angola, the oil exporters' group is still producing below its targets, meaning the world needs to use stocks to meet rising demand.

In its monthly report, OPEC said oil stocks in the developed world fell by 17.4 million barrels in February to 2.854 billion barrels, around 43 million barrels above the latest five-year average.

OPEC Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo told Reuters in New Delhi the global oil glut has effectively shrunk by nine-tenths since the start of 2017.

"We have seen an accelerated shrinkage of stocks in storage from unparalleled highs of about 400 million barrels to about 43 million above the five-year average," Barkindo said.

OPEC, Russia and several other non-OPEC producers began to cut supply in January 2017. The pact runs until the end of the year and OPEC meets in Vienna in June to decide on its next course of action.

"There is growing confidence that the declaration of cooperation will be extended beyond 2018," Barkindo told Reuters. "Russia will continue to play a leading role."

Despite this, supplies remain ample and analysts said this would weigh on prices eventually.

Barclays said that geopolitical events could keep Brent prices elevated above $70 in April and May, but a downward correction was possible in the second half of the year.

US crude oil inventories rose by 3.3 million barrels to 428.64 million barrels, while US crude production last week hit a record 10.53 million barrels per day.

GENEVA — The World Trade Organisation (WTO) on Thursday said that it expects strong trade growth through this year and next but warned progress would be "undermined" if governments implement threatened protectionist measures. 

The WTO forecast 4.4 per cent growth in trade volume this year and a more moderate four per cent expansion in 2019.

But the body's director-general Roberto Azevedo cautioned that "this important progress could be quickly undermined if governments resort to restrictive trade policies, especially in a tit-for-tat process that could lead to an unmanageable escalation".

"A cycle of retaliation is the last thing the world economy needs," he added in a statement.

Last year saw the most robust rise in trade volume expansion since 2011, fuelling hope that the world economy was finally on a sustained path to recovery following the financial crisis. 

In its latest forecast, the WTO said risks "had appeared to be more balanced than at any time since the financial crisis", but noted that uncertainty was rising again.

 No war 'yet' 

Speaking to reporters, Azevedo noted that while some of the announced tariffs remain proposals for now, even the prospect of a further escalation had already affected global market confidence. 

Asked if he believed the world was currently in the midst of a trade war, the Brazilian-born economist said: "Technically, I would say no we are not there yet”.

"There are still a number of measures that have been announced but not implemented... Politically I think we might be seeing the beginning of that [a trade war] and that is exactly what I have been urging members to try to avoid," he said. 

US President Donald Trump's administration has announced tariffs on steel and aluminium and targeted China for an additional 25 per cent in punitive duties on nearly $50 billion in goods for its alleged theft of US intellectual property.

China has vowed to defend itself through a series of reciprocal measures. 

Azevedo reiterated his call for nations to try to resolve their disputes through the multilateral system, instead of via face-to-face stand-offs. 

"The pressing trade problems confronting WTO members [are] best tackled through collective action," he said. 

Azevedo underscored that if tensions cannot be eased and a full blown trade war breaks out, "the effects would be globalised, reaching far beyond those countries that are directly involved".

The world's poorest countries could end up being the hardest hit, he added.