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Twitter hit by major hack targeting high-profile users

By - Jul 16,2020 - Last updated at Jul 16,2020

Twitter logo is seen on a phone in this photo illustration in Washington, DC, on July 10, 2019 (AFP photo)

SAN FRANCISCO — Twitter is investigating a massive hack in which high-profile users from Elon Musk to Joe Biden had their accounts hijacked by scammers, who the social network believes targeted its employees to gain access to internal systems.

Posts trying to dupe people into sending hackers the virtual currency Bitcoin were tweeted by the official accounts of Apple, Uber, Kanye West, Bill Gates, Barack Obama and many others on Wednesday.

"We detected what we believe to be a coordinated social engineering attack by people who successfully targeted some of our employees with access to internal systems and tools," Twitter said.

"They used this access to take control of many highly-visible... accounts," the company said, adding that it was investigating "what other malicious activity they may have conducted or information they may have accessed."

The fraudulent posts, which were largely deleted, said people had 30 minutes to send $1,000 in the cryptocurrency, promising they would receive twice as much in return.

A total of 12.58 bitcoins -- worth almost $116,000 -- were sent to email addresses mentioned in the tweets, according to the site Blockchain.com, which monitors crypto transactions.

"Tough day for us at Twitter," chief executive Jack Dorsey said in a tweet.

"We all feel terrible this happened. We're diagnosing and will share everything we can when we have a more complete understanding of exactly what happened."

 

Blue checkmarks

 

Twitter said it had locked down the affected accounts and removed the tweets posted by the hackers.

"Most accounts should be able to Tweet again," the Twitter support team said in an evening update, having earlier temporarily disabled all posts from verified accounts with an official blue checkmark.

But the firm told users that it "may take further actions and will update you if we do."

US President Donald Trump's account, which has more than 83 million followers, was not among those targeted, but many specialist Bitcoin firms were.

"All major crypto Twitter accounts have been compromised," Cameron Winklevoss, co-founder of the Gemini cryptocurrency exchange, said in a tweet on Wednesday.

"This is a SCAM, DO NOT participate!" he warned.

Vice reported that a Twitter insider was responsible, citing leaked screenshots and two anonymous sources apparently behind the hack, one of whom told the media outlet they had paid the employee.

US Senator Josh Hawley tweeted a letter to Dorsey expressing concern over privacy for the San Francisco-based company's millions of users worldwide.

"I am concerned that this event may represent not merely a coordinated set of separate hacking incidents but rather a successful attack on the security of Twitter itself," he said.

BitTorrent chief executive Justin Sun was offering a $1 million reward for bringing the Twitter hackers to justice, reports said.

 

'Giving back'

 

The tweet that appeared on Tesla founder Musk's Twitter feed said: "Happy Wednesday! I am giving back Bitcoin to all of my followers. I am doubling all payments sent to the Bitcoin address below. You send 0.1 BTC, I send 0.2 BTC back!"

It added that the offer was "only going on for 30 minutes."

The fake messages that appeared on other famous accounts made similar promises of instant riches.

One version of the scam invited people to click on a link at which they would be exploited.

The BBC reported that a website address in some of the duplicitous tweets had been registered under the name "Anthony Elias", which appeared to be a play on the words "An alias".

Twitter has been targeted by hackers in the past.

In March 2017, the accounts of Amnesty International, the French economics ministry and the BBC's North America service were broken into by hackers believed to have been loyal to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

Last August, a series of insulting or racist messages were posted on the personal account of Twitter founder Dorsey without his knowledge.

 

Google to buy $4.5b stake in digital unit of India’s Reliance

By - Jul 15,2020 - Last updated at Jul 15,2020

MUMBAI — Google will buy a $4.5 billion stake in Reliance's digital unit and jointly develop an entry-level smartphone with the Indian conglomerate, the two companies said on Wednesday as global tech giants race to grab a share of the country's massive market.

"We are delighted to welcome a household name in India and worldwide, Google, and have signed a binding partnership and investment agreement," Reliance chairman Mukesh Ambani told shareholders at the oil-to-telecom behemoth's annual meeting.

He said it would give the US firm a 7.7 per cent stake in Jio Platforms. 

The two firms will also develop "an Android-based smartphone operating system", Ambani said, adding: "India is at the doorstep of [the] 5G era."

"We believe we can design [an] entry-level 4G, or even 5G smartphone, for a fraction of its current cost," he said, vowing to "make India free of 2G".

"With cheap smartphones and data, millions of Indians came online and Jio had a big role in it," Google's Chief Executive Sundar Pichai said in a pre-recorded video message released at the meeting.

"Our goal is to bring a billion Indians online." 

Major players including Facebook, Intel and others have already ploughed some $15 billion into Jio Platforms this year, as Ambani — India's richest man — seeks to take on US giants Amazon and Walmart in India's growing online retail sector.

The tycoon, who upended India's telecom sector after launching the Jio mobile service in 2016, is looking to roll out an e-commerce initiative that will tap into its huge 388 million-strong subscriber base.

Jio's mobile offering clobbered the competition, offering huge discounts on its services and forcing rival firms to crash out after they were unable to keep up.

 

Chinese competition 

 

Reliance is locked in a fierce battle with Amazon and Walmart for a share of India's e-commerce market, while Ambani's plan to launch an affordable smartphone will see him compete with Chinese manufacturers who already have a strong foothold in the South Asian nation.

"The target is Chinese smartphone makers," Forrester Research senior forecast analyst Satish Meena told AFP. 

"Reliance wants to give tough competition to the Chinese companies in the smartphone category and that is something they will build towards." 

Prime Minister Narendra Modi — seen as an ally of Ambani — has long pushed a "Make in India" strategy and urged foreign businesses to manufacture goods locally.

He has also asked domestic consumers to "go vocal for local".

Ambani also announced plans to launch 5G services in India next year, and said the company would look to export the technology once it had been deployed across the country. 

"This is made in India and home-grown technology and will be available as soon as 5G spectrum is available," he said.

In recent months, Ambani has raised more than $22 billion in a rights issue and through selling stakes in Jio Platforms, and he announced last month that Reliance was now net debt-free.

The 63-year-old businessman, whose wealth ballooned on the back of India's telecoms boom, lives with his family in a 27-storey luxury Mumbai skyscraper reputed to have cost more than $1 billion.

The deal followed Google's announcement on Monday that it would invest $10 billion in India over the next five to seven years. 

Foreign firms have spent tens of billions of dollars in India in recent years as they fight for a piece of the Asian giant's burgeoning digital economy.

 

Apple wins EU court battle in 13b euros tax case

By - Jul 15,2020 - Last updated at Jul 15,2020

The logo of the US multinational technology company Apple on display on the facade of a company store in Brussels, on February 8, 2018 (AFP photo)

BRUSSELS — A European court on Wednesday annulled an EU order that Apple repay Ireland 13 billion euros ($15 billion) in back taxes, in a major legal setback for Brussels.

The commission’s historic ruling against Apple was delivered in August 2016 by Competition Commissioner Margrethe Vestager in a shock decision that put Europe on the map as a scourge of Silicon Valley.

The iPhone-maker and Ireland had appealed the order, which Apple CEO Tim Cook slammed at the time as “total political crap”.

Vestager was derided as Europe’s “tax lady” by US President Donald Trump because of the case, as well as a series of antitrust fines she imposed on Google.

The clear cut decision by the EU’s general court could now face another appeal at the top European Court of Justice, with a decision expected no earlier than 2021, but Vestager initially said only that Brussels was studying the judgement. 

In 2016, the EU accused Ireland of allowing Apple to park revenue earned in Europe, Africa, the Middle East and India and sparing it almost any taxation.

Brussels said this gave Apple an advantage over other companies, allowing it to avoid Irish taxes between 2003 and 2014 of around 13 billion euros ($14 billion).

EU officials argued that constituted illegal “state aid” by Ireland.

But the EU court said the commission “did not succeed in showing the requisite legal standard that there was an advantage”.

The commission “was wrong” to declare that Apple units based in Ireland “had been granted a selective economic advantage and, by extension, state aid.”

Apple welcomed the decision and reiterated that the profits in question were always intended to go to the United States and not Ireland.

“This case was not about how much tax we pay, but where we are required to pay it,” an Apple spokesman said in an email to AFP.

“We’re proud to be the largest taxpayer in the world as we know the important role tax payments play in society,” Apple added.

Dublin also hailed the decision.

The government said it had “always been clear” Apple received no special treatment, adding: “The correct amount of Irish tax was charged... in line with normal Irish taxation rules”.

Vestager said the EU would “carefully study the judgement and reflect on possible next steps,” which could include an appeal.

“The Commission stands fully behind the objective that all companies should pay their fair share of tax,” she added.

 

‘One per cent’ 

 

Some observers have expressed doubts on the Apple case, wondering whether the EU was right to use antitrust law to crack down on tax optimisation strategies by multinationals.

In similar cases, the same EU court struck down an order by Brussels that Starbucks pay 30 million euros in back taxes to the Netherlands.

In a separate decision, however, it said Fiat must pay roughly the same amount to Luxembourg.

The case comes as the EU is trying to come up with ways to better ensnare digital giants to pay taxes where they do business, though this has been opposed by some European capitals.

“Today’s court decision illustrates how difficult it is to use EU state aid rules to collect tax,” said Tove Ryding, tax expert at the European Network on Debt and Development.

“If we had a proper corporate tax system, we wouldn’t need long court cases to find out whether it is legal for multinational corporations to pay less than one percent in taxes,” she said.

Talks to come up with a new global tax system at the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development have been stalled due to opposition by the US.

The Apple decision came on the eve of another landmark case at the EU courts, this one a lawsuit brought by an Austrian activist against Facebook over data privacy.

 

Chinese trade sees surprise bounce in June

Outlook affected by reports of rising infection numbers

By - Jul 14,2020 - Last updated at Jul 14,2020

This aerial photo taken on Tuesday shows containers stacked at a port in Lianyungang in China's eastern Jiangsu province (AFP photo)

BEIJING — Chinese trade enjoyed surprise growth in June as the world slowly emerges from economy-strangling lockdowns, though officials warned of headwinds for recovery owing to the spread of the pandemic.

The figures come days before the release of data expected to show the world's number two economy returned to growth in the second quarter following a contraction in the first three months of the year.

The 2.7 per cent growth in imports was the first since December and much better than the 9 per cent contraction forecast in a Bloomberg News poll, while exports also beat expectations by rising 0.5 per cent.

In May, imports had collapsed 16.7 per cent and exports retreated 3.3 per cent.

Customs spokesman Li Kuiwen told reporters Tuesday that imports and exports showed "signs of recovery and stability" in the second quarter and that China was "forging ahead" with efforts to ensure stability in areas such as employment, foreign trade, and investment.

But he cautioned the external environment is "more grim and complicated" now, with COVID-19 plunging the global economy into a deep recession and international trade and investment experiencing sharp contractions.

In the first half, exports dropped 6.2 per cent on-year while imports fell 7.1 per cent, official data showed, reflecting the hit from the pandemic, which first surfaced in central China.

ING China economist Iris Pang told AFP agricultural purchases boosted imports and that the push could continue if floods ravaging much of central China persist, threatening food supplies.

"We also see a broad-based recovery in exports," she said.

China's economy is expected to have grown in April-June, having shrunk 6.8 per cent in the preceding three months as the virus battered the planet.

That was the first quarterly contraction since China began logging such data in the early 1990s.

Beijing's trade surplus with the United States — a major cause of anger in the White House — narrowed slightly to $29.4 billion in June, down 1.7 per cent year-on-year.

Tensions have been rising as the superpowers trade barbs on multiple fronts, including the pandemic and a new security law in Hong Kong.

But Li said the US and China will continue to implement a phase-one trade deal signed in January that marked a truce in their long-running trade war.

Analysts warn, however, that the trade recovery could lose momentum due to weak external demand from renewed lockdowns in key trading partners.

HSBC chief China economist Qu Hongbin said in a recent report that "the gauges for new export orders in China's purchasing managers' index... still contracted in recent months", referring to the key indicator of factory activity.

Imports were likely supported by continued improvement in domestic demand and commodity prices, he added.

Martin Rasmussen of Capital Economics noted that the boost from shipments of medical products and work-from-home equipment, "which are still growing at over 30 per cent year-on-year, will continue to fade".

Risk consultancy SinoInsider cautioned that despite Chinese efforts to rely more on its domestic consumer market, this could be hampered as overall spending power decreases.

US stocks edge higher in choppy seas

By - Jul 14,2020 - Last updated at Jul 14,2020

People walk outside the New York Stock Exchange on Monday (AFP photo)

NEW YORK — Wall Street stocks edged higher in choppy trading on Tuesday following mixed earnings reports from large banks as markets assessed the economic hit from the US coronavirus resurgence.

About 15 minutes into trading, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.2 per cent at 25,141.15.

The broad-based S&P 500 added 0.1 per cent at 3,157.24, while the tech-rich Nasdaq Composite Index gained 0.3 per cent to 10,419.35.

Large US banks reported huge increase in reserves set aside for bad loans amid the latest rise in US coronavirus cases that has prompted Texas, California and other states to roll back steps to reopen their economies.

But both JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup reported better-than-expected profits due to strength in trading and investment banking. Wells Fargo suffered a $2.4 billion loss.

JPMorgan shares rose 0.4 per cent, while Citigroup fell 2.1 per cent and Wells Fargo tumbled 6.6 per cent.

Delta Air Lines shed 2.8 per cent as it reported a second-quarter loss of $5.7 billion due to the steep downturn in travel caused by the coronavirus.

The reports marked the unofficial start of the second-quarter earnings season, which many analysts expect to show the bulk of the hit from the COVID-19 closures.

While in Europe, Frankfurt stocks dived 1.5 per cent and Paris shed 1.8 per cent, with sentiment hit by the reimposition of some containment measures in parts of the United States, Australia and Hong Kong.

London traded only a shade lower as the British pound slid on official data showing that the virus-plagued UK economy shrank by almost a fifth in the three months to April.

A weaker British currency tends to boost share prices of companies listed in London who earn vast sums in dollars.

World oil prices fell further on growing speculation that top crude producing countries will agree to tapering their output cuts at an expanded OPEC+ meeting this week.

In Asia, Hong Kong fell more than 1 per cent, Shanghai dropped 0.8 per cent and Tokyo lost 0.9 per cent. 

The benchmark Nikkei 225 index was down 0.87 per cent, or 197.73 points, at 22,587.01, while the broader Topix index slipped 0.50 per cent, or 7.87 points, to 1,565.15.

 

Google to invest $10b in India

Investment to accelerate India's digital economy

By - Jul 13,2020 - Last updated at Jul 13,2020

The Google logo is pictured on the side of the Google India office building in Hyderabad (AFP photo)

NEW DELHI — Google said on Monday it will invest $10 billion in India over the next five to seven years as it battles rivals like Facebook and Amazon in the vast market of 1.3 billion consumers.

Chief Executive Sunder Pichai told a virtual Google in India event that its fund would help "accelerate India's digital economy" and will include investing in local firms and infrastructure in areas like digital payments, education and health.

"There's no question we are facing a difficult moment today, in India and around the world. The dual challenges to our health and to our economies have forced us to rethink how we work and how we live," Pichai said.

"But times of challenge can lead to incredible moments of innovation," Indian-born Pichai said according to a transcript of his remarks released by the US search engine giant.

Foreign firms have spent tens of billions of dollars in India in recent years as they fight for a piece of the Asian giant's burgeoning digital economy.

This has included only this year around $16 billion in investments from Facebook, Intel and others in stakes in the digital services unit of Jio, controlled by Asia's richest man Mukesh Ambani.

Pichai on Monday briefed Prime Minister Narendra Modi on his plans, but a government statement suggested that Modi also expressed concerns about data security and privacy.

Modi "said that tech companies need to put in efforts to bridge the trust deficit", the statement said.

 

Without IMF bailout, can Lebanon make it while heading into unchartered territory

By - Jul 12,2020 - Last updated at Jul 12,2020

 

BEIRUT — Talks between crisis-hit Lebanon and the International Monetary Fund are deadlocked, and leaders are reluctant to enact reforms. Without a vital multibillion-dollar bailout, is Lebanon headed for "hell"?

For months, the Mediterranean country has grappled with its worst economic crisis since the 1975-1990 civil war.

Tens of thousands have lost their jobs or part of their salaries, while a crippling dollar shortage has sparked rapid inflation.

After the country for the first time defaulted in March, the government pledged reforms and two months ago started talks with the IMF towards unlocking billions of dollars in aid.

But 17 meetings later, the negotiations are stalling. 

"The IMF has left the negotiating table and talks have stopped," said a member of the Lebanese negotiating team, asking to remain anonymous.

Another Lebanese source familiar with the negotiations said IMF representatives have "not sensed serious commitment from the Lebanese delegation" towards reform.

"Every faction is vying for its own personal interests while the country burns," they said.

Talks were held on Friday to discuss reforms in the electricity sector, the finance ministry said, but not financial aid.

Deadlock is common in multiconfessional Lebanon, where politicians have for decades been accused of cronyism, conflict of interest and corruption.

As Lebanon seeks help from the IMF, arguments are mounting over the scale of total financial losses for the state, central bank and commercial banks.

The government estimated losses at around 241 trillion Lebanese pounds, which amounts to around $69 billion at an exchange rate of 3,500 pounds to the greenback. But a parliamentary committee quoted much lower figures using the old currency peg of 1,507 pounds to the dollar.

The IMF considers the government's figures to be more likely.

The discrepancy in the figures shows the great power and influence of a "lobby ready to see Lebanon burn rather than expose what they did to it", the Lebanese negotiator said.

 

'Help us help you' 

 

Since October, the deepening turmoil has sparked mass protests demanding the wholesale removal of a political class seen as incompetent and corrupt.

The crisis has shot poverty up to almost 50 per cent.

The Lebanese pound in early July peaked at more than 9,000 to the greenback on the black market.

With price soaring, many can no longer afford to buy diapers, or fill their fridge.

Four Lebanese killed themselves last week, apparently due to the economic downturn.

In March, the government pledged reforms long demanded by donors, including budget cuts, tax hikes and electricity sector reform, but little has come through.

A Western source told AFP a meeting last week "went very badly", ending with IMF negotiators urging Lebanon's representatives "to stop taking them for a ride".

Two key members of Lebanon's team resigned last month, accusing the government of lacking commitment to reform.

On Friday, UN rights chief Michelle Bachelet sounded the alarm.

"This situation is fast spiralling out of control, with many already destitute and facing starvation as a direct result of this crisis," she said.

Two days earlier, French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said he was "very worried".

"Help us help you…" he urged.

Analyst Nasser Yassin said the ruling class lacked political will.

"To guarantee they won't lose everything, they would rather the country remain on the cusp of collapsing than initiate serious reforms," he said.

Such changes, he said, "would strip them of essential tools they use to impose authority and control over the state, the economy, and society".

 

'Officials in denial' 

 

Among the IMF's demands are that Lebanon audit its central bank, and issue official capital controls to replace informal withdrawal and transfer caps imposed by the banks since the autumn.

It has also requested the country float its currency so Lebanese can follow a single exchange rate.

To further complicate matters, the IMF talks come as tensions rise between the United States and Hizbollah, the Iran-backed Shiite movement that is a key political player in Lebanon but that Washington has listed as "terrorist".

The Western source said: "I don't see any alternative to assistance from the IMF."

"The country is collapsing, and so is the Lebanese pound, while officials are in denial."

Lebanon's government says it needs $20 billion in external funding, which includes $11 billion pledged by donors in 2018.

But without an IMF rescue, donors are unlikely to pump money into Lebanon, the Western source said.

"An IMF agreement will help correct Lebanon's reputation," he advised.

The Lebanese source agreed an IMF rescue would help Lebanon avoid the worst.

"With a skyrocketing exchange rate that could reach 25,000 to 50,000 Lebanese pounds to the dollar and inflation increasing by the day, Lebanon, without the IMF, will plunge into hell," he said.

Vietnam’s young invest ideas in Ho Chi Minh

By - Jul 12,2020 - Last updated at Jul 12,2020

This photo, taken on June 29, shows entrepreneur Le Thanh, managing director of ShoeX, with a face mask made from coffee grounds at his co-working space in Ho Chi Minh City (AFP photo)

HO CHI MINH CITY — A tech-savvy population, a fast-growing economy, and the perks of being first in an emerging market — Vietnamese entrepreneur Le Thanh saw the potential in booming Ho Chi Minh City for his start-up transforming coffee grounds into masks. 

The 35-year-old chemistry graduate worked for two multinationals before stepping out on his own three years ago to launch ShoeX — a sustainable footwear company which nimbly pivoted to masks as the coronavirus pandemic struck.

When he entered the workforce, Thanh was drawn to the higher salaries and no-nonsense working culture at foreign companies he assumed were a cut above local firms, tangled up in rules.

"But now I see there are more openings in a place where things are a bit murky," Thanh told AFP from his buzzing Ho Chi Minh City co-working space.

He is not alone in believing Vietnam — and especially its southern commercial centre — is poised to become an innovation hub, thanks to its young, educated and digitally active population.

Vietnamese e-commerce and e-payment companies have been "flooded" with private equity in the past couple of years, said Eddie Thai, a Ho Chi Minh City-based partner at venture capital firm 500 Startups.

Their rise has been stellar.

Vietnam-based start-ups made up 18 per cent — or $741 million — of the capital invested in southeast Asia in 2019, up from four per cent in 2018, according to a report by Cento Ventures.

Although Indonesia remains the leader, the amount pumped into Vietnam start-ups pushed ahead of Singapore for the first time in 2019, the venture capital firm said.

The gold rush comes in spite of cumbersome regulations for foreigners, Thai told AFP, making it difficult to invest and repatriate capital.

Last year, popular e-wallet platform VNPay reportedly snagged the largest deal in southeast Asia, attracting $300 million from Softbank's Vision Fund and Singapore's sovereign wealth fund GIC.

Although Thai said investment had paused due to the coronavirus pandemic, Vietnam is well-placed to bounce back.

Its economy unexpectedly grew in the second quarter and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts a 2.7 per cent expansion for the year despite the global downturn.

The country also has a huge pool of software engineers who cost substantially less than their Indian or Chinese peers.

Unlike the tech talent in wealthy start-up hubs such as San Francisco or London, they understand what consumers in the emerging world want, Thai says.

 

Exciting, young environment 

 

Air pollution — and then the outbreak of COVID-19 — prompted Thanh to take a gamble on sourcing Vietnamese coffee waste material to turn it into masks. 

His cutting edge design uses woven fibre made from coffee grounds to make a washable outer layer, with a biodegradable filter inside.

"I took a risk and hoped it would succeed," he said, adding that there had been a surge in orders of his masks from Europe, the US and Japan since they launched in April.

A similar strain of environmental innovation courses through many other smaller start-ups in a country among the most vulnerable to climate change. 

They exploit the high tech literacy of the population — 70 per cent of which is under 35, according to the World Bank — to sell new products to a receptive market.

Bui Thi Minh Ngoc wanted to find a sustainable alternative to standard menstrual products, searching for months to find the right organic cloth for her sanitary pad business GreenLady Vietnam, which she operates largely on Facebook.

"In Vietnam, there are not many specialising in period products and reproductive health," the 26-year-old said as she checked material samples at a tailor in Hanoi.

"But I like to do things which are difficult."

While Vietnam is yet to produce any truly "disruptive technology", said Trung Hoang of local investment platform VinaCapital Ventures, China has shown what is possible.

The Asian giant — also an autocratic one-party state — has managed to incubate dynamic tech behemoths like Alibaba and Tencent that have risen to the forefront of the industry.

Back in his Ho Chi Minh City office space, packed with young professionals, Thanh fizzes with enthusiasm for Vietnam's start-up culture.

"I am in this exciting and young environment. It's inspired us all."

IMF warns cutting spending too soon could derail recovery

By - Jul 11,2020 - Last updated at Jul 11,2020

Vitor Gaspar, director of the International Monatary Fund’s Fiscal Affairs Department, speaks during a Fiscal Monitor briefing at the 2018 IMF/World Bank spring meetings in Washington, DC, on April 18, 2018 (AFP photo)

WASHINGTON —As governments rushed out funding to prevent an economic collapse amid the coronavirus pandemic, global public debt swelled to the highest in history, but the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned on Friday that cutting back too soon could undermine the recovery.

Continuing to provide the support as the economic slowdown drags on will be “paramount”, the IMF’s Fiscal Policy Chief Vitor Gaspar told AFP in an interview.

“The risk of premature withdrawal of fiscal support is the dominant risk,” even more than rising debt levels, Gaspar said, noting that the economic recovery from the global financial crisis was slowed by that misstep.

As the health crisis spread and businesses were shuttered worldwide to contain the spread of COVID-19, governments provided “a massive fiscal response” of close to $11 trillion in just a few months to help support households and prevent bankruptcies, a “stronger and faster” response than in 2008-2010.

As a result, even amid record low interest rates, the debt figures are staggering.

Global public debt will reach “its highest level — as a percentage of GDP — ever recorded in history”, at over 100 per cent of global gross domestic product (GDP), Gaspar said.

Deficits in advanced economies are projected to be five times higher than pre-pandemic estimates for 2020.

The Washington-based crisis lender, which historically has always advocated for governments to restrain spending, is in the unusual position of urging authorities to flood their countries with cash while also sounding the warning about pitfalls ahead, especially if there is a renewed spike in virus cases.

With over 12 million cases worldwide and 555,000 deaths, “priority number one” is the health crisis and policies to contain the spread of COVID-19 so that life and the economy can return to normal, Gaspar said.

As economic activity rebounds, government debt levels should stabilise and begin to fall starting in 2021, he said.

In the wake of the 2008 global financial crisis, many governments shut down their stimulus programmes at the first sign their economies had stabilised, which led to a slower, more sluggish recovery.

Now, government spending “will need to remain supportive and flexible until a safe and durable exit from the crisis is secured,” Gaspar said in a blog post co-authored with IMF Chief Economist Gita Gopinath.

“We are not out of the woods,” they cautioned.

But authorities should take steps to shore up their finances including improving tax collection, making taxes more progressive so those with higher incomes pay more, and eliminating subsidies on fuel while adopting revenue measures such as carbon pricing.

In the face of “profound” transformations of their economies, when “many of the jobs destroyed by the crisis will likely not return”, governments should focus their efforts on sectors that will survive, rather than those that will shrink, such as air travel.

That could even include taking equity stakes in or temporarily nationalising industries, which would “allow the taxpayer to share the upside” in companies benefiting from government support, Gaspar said.

 

IEA expects oil output recovery

By - Jul 11,2020 - Last updated at Jul 11,2020

PARIS — Oil output hit a nine-year low last month as producers reacted to the plunge in demand triggered by the coronavirus crisis, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Friday, but output is now set to recover.

While the Paris-based agency warned that the resurgence of the coronavirus in parts of the world injected added uncertainty into forecasts, it sees the market turning a corner.

“During June, global oil output tumbled to a nine-year low” as the cartel of the Organisation of the petroleum exporting Countries and its allies cut production, and producers in the United States and elsewhere reacted to continued relatively low prices and scaled back operations.

“From July, however, oil supply should begin to trend higher as producers react to signs of recovering demand as lockdowns ease,” said the IEA in its regular monthly report on the oil markets.

“Futures markets are anticipating a transformation in the oil market from substantial surplus in the first half of the year to a deficit in the second half.”

The lockdowns adopted by countries around the world earlier this year triggered an unprecedented drop in demand for oil as travel was restricted and many factories slowed or shut production.

The IEA estimates global oil demand fell by 16.4 million barrels per day (mbd) year-on-year in the second quarter, when much of Europe and north America were under lockdown.

But as countries ease those measures, demand has been recovering, with the IEA pointing to strong rebounds in China and India in May.

As the second quarter demand drop was a bit less than it had earlier estimated, the IEA adjusted its forecasts.

It now expects that global oil demand this year will average 92.1mbd, down by 7.9mbd from 2019, a slightly smaller decline than it forecast in June.

The better performance in 2020 translates into a slightly lower recovery of 5.3mbd next year to 97.4mbd in average daily demand.

“However, the strong growth of new Covid-19 cases that has seen the reimposition of lockdowns in some regions, including north and Latin America, is casting a shadow over the outlook,” said the IEA.

From September, it sees the drop in demand for petrol and diesel to be nearly gone. From that point lower demand by the aviation industry for fuel will we be the major component of the overall drop in demand.

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