For AlKazemi to succeed, he must steer Iraq away from US-Iran tensions

Even before Iraq was hit by the novel coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic, party squabbling and mass protests had paralysed the country’s political life. Prime Minister Adel Abdel Mahdi was forced to resign last November and since then two candidates had tried, and failed, to win parliament’s support to form a new government. The country is deeply divided and US-Iran tensions have cast a shadow over attempts to turn a page and end the longest political stalemate since the American invasion of 2003.

President Barham Salih had nominated Mohammaed Tawfik Alawi, a former minister, last February for the top job, but he was seen as too close to Tehran and his bid was foiled by the street and Sunni and Kurdish parties. Then Salih picked Adnan Al Zurfi, the governor of Najaf, but Shia parties accused him of being pro-US and last week he was forced to withdraw.

But now there is hope that consensus has been reached after Salih nominated the head of the National Intelligence Service, Mustafa AlKazemi, to form the next government. AlKazemi, a former journalist and a fierce opponent of Saddam Hussein, has never joined a political party, nor was he accused of corruption. Upon selecting him, Salih described AlKazemi as a “patriot and cultural figure … well known for his integrity, moderation [and] giving consideration for all Iraqis regarding their general rights.”

As he was handed his mandate by the president, Iraq’s political elite were in attendance, indicating that, for now, there was general support for his nomination by both Sunni and Shia parties and figures. Perhaps more importantly, AlKazemi, whose previous position enabled him to deal with the US and Iran without being seen as an ally of either, has been given the initial nod of approval by both Washington and Tehran.

“If AlKazemi is an Iraqi nationalist, if he is dedicated to pursuing a sovereign Iraq, if he is committed to fighting corruption, this would be great for Iraq, and I think it would be great for our bilateral relationship,” US Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs David Schenker was quoted as saying last week. On the other hand, Iran’s Foreign Ministry described AlKazemi’s designation as “a step in the right direction.”

Following his nomination, AlKazemi, 53, pledged to form a government that puts the aspirations and demands of Iraqis as the top priority. He has 30 days to present his cabinet to parliament for approval. The road ahead will be fraught with challenges. Even though he has the support of major political players he is yet to put together a cabinet that meets the demands of the people while striking a balance that serves the sectarian reality on the ground.

AlKazemi had pledged to form a service-oriented government but the real test will be in dealing with the sectarian quota system that has been denounced by the protestors as a main reason for the endemic corruption that has brought Iraq to its knees.

His job will not be easy. Aside from overcoming the coronavirus challenge, there are more than 1,300 cases with over 70 deaths, the government will have to deal with worsening economic conditions in light of plummeting oil prices. The dire living conditions that triggered mass protests last year have not improved and the pressure on the new government to come up with solutions will be immediate.

Meanwhile, Iraq will remain at the center of US-Iran tensions. Pro Iran militias will continue to threaten US military presence in Iraq as Tehran feels the impact of economic sanctions and the spread of the coronavirus. One of these militias that had rejected AlKazemi’s nomination is Kataeb Hizbollah, which had accused the chief of Iraqi intelligence of involvement in last December’s US assassination of Iranian general Qassem Suleimani and Iraqi militia leader Abu Mahdi Al Muhandis. Interestingly, AlKazemi is supported by Fatah coalition headed by militia leader and Iran loyalist Hadi Al-Ameri as well as State of Law coalition, headed by former Prime Minister Nouri Al Maliki, and the Hikma movement headed by cleric Ammar Al Hakim.

Last week, the US offered a $10 million reward for information on Mohammad Al Kuthrani, one of the military leaders of Kataeb Hizbollah.

For AlKazemi to succeed in his mission, both the US and Iran must stop using Iraq as their own backyard in order to settle scores and allow the Iraqi people to emerge from years of sectarian feuds and corrupt political system. That is easier said than done and AlKazemi will soon find that he will be walking a tight rope as he tries to balance the country’s interests against those of Tehran and Washington.

Osama Al Sharif is a journalist and political commentator based in Amman