Failure of Ethiopian dam negotiations: Beyond the initial filling of the dam

A few hours after the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) negotiations started between Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia, talks faltered, delayed and fuelled the differences again. It seems that this dispute has become far from reaching an agreement that satisfies the three parties, and we have begun to witness the collapse of trust and building confidence between the parties, which is a key factor and basic element in reaching an agreement from a regional cooperation perspective that meets the interests of the three countries under the principle of "win-win solutions".

Our recent articles that have been published through the Middle East Water Forum (MEWF) platform, namely, "Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and Egypt’s Future Water Options in Light of Regional Political Changes" dated October 2019, summarised the historical chronology of the agreements concluded and the technical issues related to the building of the dam, including negative impacts in economic and social terms. On March 2020, we published another article titled "GERD, the American Mediation and the New Egyptian Fateful Options" in which we communicated some recommendations that would advance the path of negotiation between the three countries, with focus on the most important issues such as lack of financial support  that countries need to complete with it their development programmes that aim to increase the efficiency of water use.

During the past three months, a shift in the claims ceiling has been observed in the sense that Ethiopia is now launching statements by the foreign ministry that they “will start filling the dam next month with or without an agreement”. It seems that Ethiopia is no longer recognises the 1929 and 1959 agreement, arguing that it was signed during the British mandate on behalf of Ethiopia at the time. This trend exacerbates the dispute and enters into more complicated tracks, rather than sitting at the negotiating table and protecting Ethiopian interests through a trilateral agreement that brings development and regional stability. Bearing in mind that, the three parties signed “Declaration of Principles” (DoP) in the year 2015, whereby the agreement stressed that cooperation is based on mutual understanding, mutual benefit, goodwill and benefits for all.

The DoP provided the general principles regarding the initial filling and annual operation protocols of GERD. It states: “The three countries, in the spirit of cooperation, will utilise the final outcomes of the joint studies, to be conducted as per the recommendations of the International Panel of Experts [IPoE] report and agreed upon by the Trilateral National Committee [TNC] in order to: First, agree on guidelines and rules on the initial filling of GERD which shall cover all different scenarios, in parallel with the construction of GERD. Second, agree on guidelines and rules for the annual operation of GERD, which the 
owner of the dam may adjust from time to time. Third, inform the downstream countries of any unforeseen or urgent circumstances requiring adjustments in the operation of GERD.”

On the other hand, the Egyptian side is still adopting the approach of negotiations, diplomacy and communication with the international community to help reach an agreement. For Egypt, it is a matter of "life or death" because, as we mentioned in previous articles, Egypt depends 95 per cent on the waters of the Nile. In fact, Egypt still managing the case wisely, without engaging and dragging on to new tracks due to the provocations comes out of Ethiopian officials from time to time. The request letter that Egypt sent to the Security Council this month is only among the measures that would bring international diplomacy to this dispute without reaching any further consequential complications. The upcoming session of the Security Council, will most probably, in accordance with Chapter (7) of the UN Charter, ask countries in dispute to go back to negotiation table or formulate a committee, but it’s very unlikely to impose sanctions or recommend international arbitration.

The stumbling negotiations is also due, although partially, to the fact that the American sponsor of these negotiations has become busy with more important internal issues crucial for the continuity of the ruling Republican Party i.e. the coronavirus crisis and how to deal with it, the increase in demonstrations and marches against racial discrimination, and finally, preparing for the upcoming US elections. All these issues prevailed and overcame, to a certain extent, any foreign issues in comparison to the above-mentioned internal ones, as they are considered of high priority for many politicians.

We rely a lot on the Sudanese role and position on this issue; the Sudanese-Egyptian agreement and the Sudanese-Ethiopian agreement, both are of great importance, and the Sudanese interests must be preserved by the other two countries to benefit from building the dam. As differences generate more problems, it has appeared recently to the public, for the first time, an Ethiopian-Sudanese dispute which is the areas on which the dam is located, especially the "Bani Shanqul Mountains", an area of dispute between Ethiopia and Sudan. This dispute must not be bred as the existing dispute does not need more fuel to start new fires.

The current dispute over the initial filling of the dam, taking into account the climate change dimension which is represented in the years of drought, does not affect much on the developmental plans of the Ethiopian side, but it affects Egypt. It seems that the Ethiopian side may want to seize the opportunity to get rid of the previous agreements, which is an approach that does not serve the Ethiopian interest nor the other parties.

Water security varies widely across the upstream and downstream countries. Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan will have a long way to go to achieve sustainable development and water security for all. They will have to take different ways to ensure water security in their countries and they cannot achieve water security without long-term cooperation.

Water security in these three countries requires a paradigm shift to achieve the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG)-6 of the UN on safely managed water and sanitation for all. While water security varies widely across the upstream and downstream countries; the major challenge in Egypt is the availability of water resources, while the challenges in Ethiopia require considerable measures to achieve water security despite the availability of water resources; there are lack of water infrastructure and access to safely managed water (half of Ethiopians do not have access to water and only 6.3 per cent of people have access to adequate sanitation services), energy deficiency, water quality problems in which 80 per cent of diseases are attributed to limited access to safe water and inadequate sanitation and hygiene services.  In addition, poor water quality of water due to intermittent water supply and fragmented institutions, makes it difficult for Ethiopia to achieve sustainable development goals.  With better management of water resources, GERD can leapfrog water management in Ethiopia and turn the vicious cycle of intermittent water supply into continuous supply.

According to the United Nations, Egypt is located in a harsh climate in the Arab region, which is considered as one of the world’s poorest regions in terms of water availability, and is most likely to suffer from future water crises. Seventeen out of the 22 Arab countries are below the water poverty line, i.e. less than 1000 m3 per capita/year, of which, 12 suffer from a real shortage of water and classified below the absolute water poverty line i.e. less than 500 m3 per capita/year for all uses.

It is crucial for all countries to consider the costs of inaction, failure and lack of peace of achieving a long-standing cooperation over GERD and water security for all. This lack of cooperation could lead to unforeseen consequences. It could fuel tensions to a point where the environment, economy and people’s livelihoods suffer considerably in the three countries. As water knows no boundaries, the spread of tensions does not always take national borders into consideration or, in other words, conflicts do not consult with geographical maps.

Water security is a key driver for sustainable development and for uniting people and societies. It is critical input and connector for almost all sectors, such as agriculture, industry and energy. Water is a source of life and prosperity while at the same time being a cause of conflict, political instability, death and destruction, caused by natural and man-made disasters.  Thus, cooperation over water is a precondition to sustainable development, peace and security for all.

Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia must break the political cycle of conflict within a framework of water security for all. Barring a collapse of the process, will allow countries at some point to confront the complex issues, including the definition of entitlements to shared fresh water resources and the dynamic operation of the dam in the long run. Thus, it is crucial for the three countries to back to the negotiation with trusted international institutions and apply the Principles of Effective Joint Bodies (EJB) for long lasting cooperation which covers the following: (1) the establishment, structure and functions of joint bodies; (2) their operation;  (3) financial and human resources; and (4) developmental plans.

There is no other way, but to go back to negotiation table and utilise the comparative advantage of the prevailing climate and peak water demand across these countries, in order to reach fair agreement to all parties and their future generations. We hope that the upcoming session of the Security Council, will recommend countries in dispute to cooperate within the previously signed agreements so these countries can move from conflict and tension to long-term cooperation, development and prosperity.

Hazim El-Naser is chairman of the Middle East Water Forum, former minister of Water and Irrigation/Jordan, former minister of Agriculture/Jordan and former member of the Jordanian Parliament. Hassan Aboelnga is vice chair of Middle East Water Forum.