Towards the launch of political settlement

The ceasefire agreement in Syria was imposed by a UN resolution in order to make a political settlement in Syria possible.

The ceasefire will help restructure the status of various fighting groups and hopefully will put an end to the chaotic supply of weapons. 

From Moscow’s and Washington’s perspective, the ceasefire might represent the necessary leap towards the launch of the political process that should be helped by a new Geneva meeting, called by UN envoy for Syria Staffan de Mistura on March 13.

The steps taken by US and Russia to make the political process succeed leave no space for Plan B. 

A direct military intervention in Syria seems impossible without full coordination with the present protagonists in Syria and should be conducted under the umbrella of the international collation for fighting terrorism led by the US.

The road towards the political solution seems to include several scenarios.

The Russian deputy minister of foreign affairs, Sergey Ryabkov, talked about the issue of federation in Syria. However, it is important to highlight the huge difference between a federal system and a sectarian division.

The Russian military intervention was justified by many factors, above all the wish to save the unity of Syria, to save the Syrian institutions and keep the army from disintegrating. 

Federations might save the political identity of a country by avoiding any attempt at dividing it based on ethnical and religious criteria. 

The Russian diplomat’s words include a message to Turkey, the country that will suffer most from any semi-independent Kurdish state on its borders. And the Kurds are the most ready component to seize the chance of having their own state.

This might represent a real nightmare for Turkey and might have a negative impact on its internal situation.

The Russian proposal might be a very efficient tool to protect the ceasefire agreement and the political process in Syria.

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