Tunisia or Iraq?

Throughout the past three-and-a-half years, the period of what came to be known as the Arab Spring, Iraq was almost forgotten.

All eyes were focused on the Arab Spring countries — primarily Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Yemen and, finally, Syria — in anticipation of a drive towards democracy that could work and perhaps be an example to  other Arab countries to follow.

The main candidate, to date, has been Tunisia. For some time, the various parties in Tunisia, including the Islamists, have been working on a much-needed compromise formula that includes all in a participatory democracy.

Nothing concrete has emerged yet, but analysts are hopeful that something positive will most likely come out of the Tunisian situation.

This remains to be seen, but we are all still interested in Tunisia, which is the prime candidate for a tipping point.

Iraq should not be ruled out, however.

Due to recent dramatic developments, Iraq occupies centre stage now. The situation there is fast deteriorating and Nouri Al Maliki’s government is losing control. 

That is bad news indeed for all Iraqis and for the region.

More people are killed or displaced on daily basis, the various ethnic and religious groups are more polarised than ever (some are at war with each other), extremism is on the rise, and the country is on the verge of either  division or an all-out civil war.

One of the worst Arab nightmares is unfolding in front of our eyes.

Nevertheless, there is a positive angle from which one could look at the Iraqi situation. Unfortunately, things must get worse before they get better.

After all, the collapse of the Maliki government could be a blessing. For almost a decade now, it has failed, and miserably so, in its prime aim: bringing Iraqis together. And because of that, it is largely responsible for the anarchy, chaos and violence we see today.

And yet, this government is not letting go, so like in all Arab Spring countries where authoritarian regimes clang to power at any price, it is being forced to let go.

What the Iraqis need is a government able to engage all political, ethnic and religious groups in a process that ultimately bring about a participatory democracy.

After all, is not this what everyone wanted when they rejected and then obliterated the Saddam regime?

Will the current events ultimately lead to a government and a system of which the Iraqis, and many in the Arab world, have been dreaming?

On the negative side, Iraq may end up being cut up into the three states, Kurdish, Shiite and Sunni. Some in fact, are calling for that.

However, if one pays careful attention to what most Iraqis are saying, they all still want one Iraq: a democratic Iraq that embraces and involves all.

Is this possible?

It is not only possible, it is most likely. And it is the best option for the Iraqis and the most durable solution.

Dividing Iraq is not as easy it sounds. And if it happens, it does not necessarily mean that the three components (states) will live in harmony and peace.

The division of Sudan, for example, has not resulted in milk and honey, but in more problems and more violence. The situation may be exactly the same, and even worse, in a divided Iraq.

The Iraqis — Kurds, Sunnis and Shiites — have lived together for decades, and sectarianism or ethnicity is never the problem. The problem is political.

All that Iraqis need at this point in time is a unity/federation catalyst: a government representing all that works sincerely towards this aim. And there are so many Iraqis capable of being part of such government and bringing about the desired result.

This is why the collapse of the current government could be a necessity.

The situation in Iraq is, of course, much more complicated than in Tunisia, because there is more politicised ethnic and religious diversity and division.

But this is precisely why Iraq would be a more relevant  example for other Arab Spring countries than Tunisia.

For this very reason, and many others, Iraq and not Tunisia could be the real tipping point.

One hopes Iraqis will make it. After all, they once were an example of coexistence, harmony and refined culture.