Norway intelligence predicts more ‘authoritarian’ Russia

OSLO — Russia is set to become “more authoritarian and militarised” in the coming years, Norway’s intelligence services said on Monday, arguing that the war in Ukraine has been a “catastrophe” for Russia.

“There is no turning back,” said Lars Nordrum, second in command of the Norwegian Intelligence Service as he presented an annual risk assessment for Norway, a NATO-member sharing a border with Russia.

“The Russian state will be more authoritarian and militarised,” he said, referring to how propaganda is used to manipulate public opinion and Moscow’s closer ties with other authoritarian regimes.

“Russian interests will not be compatible with those of the West,” Nordrum said.

The annual risk assessment, the first since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, also concluded as it has done before that Russia and China are the main threats to Norway’s security and interests.

The war has been “a catastrophe for Russia”, Nordrum said, citing the effects of Western trade sanctions, Moscow’s international isolation and the “more than 100,000 Russian soldiers... killed or injured” in Ukraine.

The conflict, he said, has increased Norway’s geopolitical importance, not least because it has made it the leading supplier of gas to the European continent.

“European countries will be dependent on Norwegian energy supplies for many years,” Nordrum said.

Norway’s domestic intelligence service (PST), which also contributed to the assessment, believes that “Russia will try to gather intelligence about most aspects of Norway’s oil, gas and energy sector” after the emergence of “Russian ambitions to exert pressure on European energy security” last year.

But direct sabotage of Norwegian energy infrastructure by Russia is “unlikely” in 2023, according to PST chief Beate Gangas.

“However, acts of sabotage could become a more relevant scenario if Russia’s willingness to escalate the conflict with NATO and the West were to increase,” the report said.

Following the suspected sabotage of the Nord Stream 1 and 2 gas pipelines last year in the Baltic Sea, Norway has stepped up security around strategic sites, including its energy facilities.