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Stephen S. Roach
By Stephen S. Roach - Nov 24,2021
NEW HAVEN — The transitory inflation debate in the United States is over. The upsurge in US inflation has turned into something far worse than the Federal Reserve (Fed) expected. Perpetually optimistic financial markets are taking this largely in stride.
By Stephen S. Roach - May 25,2021
NEW HAVEN — Memories can be tricky. I have long been haunted by the inflation of the 1970s. Fifty years ago, when I had just started my career as a professional economist at the Federal Reserve (Fed), I was witness to the birth of the Great Inflation as a Fed insider.
By Stephen S. Roach - Apr 25,2021
NEW HAVEN — I have been in the economic forecasting business for close to 50 years. I got my start in the early 1970s, on the research staff at the Federal Reserve (Fed) in Washington, DC, before taking my crystal ball to Wall Street for over 30 years.
By Stephen S. Roach - Feb 24,2021
NEW HAVEN  —  As the second vaccine shot went into my arm, I could almost taste the instant gratification of deferred desires.
By Stephen S. Roach - Jan 25,2021
NEW HAVEN  —  Plenty has been said, and rightfully so, about the violent insurrection at the US Capitol on January 6. Politicians are grappling with issues of legal and moral accountability.
By Stephen S. Roach - Jan 03,2021
NEW HAVEN — The outlook for economic and financial markets hinges on the interplay between two cycles, the COVID-19 cycle and the business cycle.
By Stephen S. Roach - Dec 06,2020
NEW HAVEN — Suddenly, there §is a credible case for a vaccine-led economic recovery. Modern science has delivered what must certainly be one of the greatest miracles of my long lifetime.
By Stephen S. Roach - Sep 26,2020
NEW HAVEN — The US dollar has now entered the early stages of what looks to be a sharp descent. The dollar’s real effective exchange rate (REER) fell 4.3 per cent in the four months ending in August.
By Stephen S. Roach - Aug 29,2020
NEW HAVEN — The double dip is not a dance. It is the time-honoured tendency of the US economy to relapse into recession after a temporary recovery. Over the years, it has happened far more often than not.
By Stephen S. Roach - Jul 22,2020
NEW HAVEN — Those are tough words to swallow for a hardcore Euroskeptic. Like many, I have long been critical of Europe’s Economic and Monetary Union as a dysfunctional currency area.

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