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AMMAN — The Central Bank of Jordan (CBJ) said its circular urging banks to strengthen their security to prevent breaches is precautionary. Banks are also advised to keep abreast of related-developments and the latest IT security solutions, the CBJ added.

The bank had issued a circular calling for tighter security measures so that licensed banks can avert the risk of hacking. The banking sector at the global level has experienced several hacking attempts and breaches, the last of which was the Bangladesh Bank heist where losses amounted to $120 million. 

PARIS — The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) said Monday it is suspending for two months its composite leading indicators (CLIs) designed to flag turning points in economic activity due to volatility heightened by Brexit.

The OCED compiles the indicators to provide a useful tool to measure expectations of future economic activity, but it said "extreme volatility such as the financial crisis and the recent euro area crisis" reduced their effectiveness.

They cannot account "for significant unforeseen or unexpected events, for example natural disasters, such as the earthquake, and subsequent events that affected Japan in March 2011", which likewise saw CLI data suspended for two months.

"The outcome of the recent referendum in the United Kingdom is another such significant unexpected event, which is affecting the underlying expectation and outturn indicators used to construct the CLIs regularly published by the OECD," the organisation said.

The OECD added that, in the volatile post-referendum context, the underlying data that capture subsequent and potentially significant changes in expectations will not be available until early September. 

"As a consequence, to avoid providing an inaccurate and potentially misleading assessment of the short to medium term outlook, it has been decided to suspend the release of the OECD CLIs until 8 September 2016."

Following the referendum, the OECD forecast "major consequences for the UK itself, the EU and the international community”.

It added that, although it would not have recommended a Leave vote "the focus must now shift to dealing with the outcome of this democratic process" to ensure the transition period is as smooth as possible.

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — One of the Middle East’s biggest carriers, Qatar Airways, announced net profits of $445 million in 2016, up from $103 million the previous year. The airline’s revenue rose from $9.3 billion in 2015 to $9.6 billion.

Qatar Airways Group Chief Executive Akbar Al Baker said Sunday it was the 19-year-old airline’s best fiscal year to date. The airline added 13 new destinations this year to fly to more than 150 cities worldwide. It also launched direct flights from its base in Doha to Atlanta, home to the world’s busiest international airport.

Qatar Airways operates a fleet of 186 aircraft, including the new Airbus A350 XWB, out of its hub in the vast new Hamad International Airport in Doha, which is preparing to host football’s World Cup in 2022.

SHANGHAI — In the face of a “worrying” rise in protectionism, trade ministers from the world’s major economies have agreed to cut trade costs, increase policy coordination and enhance financing, China’s Commerce Minister Gao Hucheng said on Sunday.

The Group of 20 trade ministers, who wrapped up a two-day meeting in Shanghai on Sunday, approved a broad trade growth strategy aimed at reversing a slowing in global trade, and backed guiding principles for global investment policymaking.

“The global recovery continues, but it remains uneven and falls short of our ambition for strong, sustainable and balanced growth. Downside risks and vulnerabilities persist,” the ministers said in a joint statement.

“We agree that we need to do more to achieve our common objectives for global growth, stability and prosperity.”

The spectre of protectionism has loomed large over global trade amid sluggish economic growth and is a pressing concern for China.

The country’s huge, but struggling steel sector has relied on exports to offset the impact of slowing domestic demand, but it has been accused of using unfair pricing to push foreign competitors out of business.

The ministers discussed the need to address overcapacity, particularly in the steel sector, but some disagreed about the need for specific new commitments to resolve the problem, said one senior trade official involved in the talks, declining to be identified because details of the discussions had not been made public.

The joint statement reflected China’s concerns that the country was being singled out for blame for a glut that has led to a collapse in global prices, noting instead that excess capacity in steel and other industries is “a global issue which requires collective responses”, and that subsidies and government support could cause distortions.

The United States has been a vocal critic of China’s excess capacity, saying its pledges have not gone far enough to resolve the problem.

US Trade Representative Michael Froman said in a statement that the G-20 had “added to the chorus of voices, calling for tackling the root causes of excess capacity for the benefit of both developing and developed countries”.

Chinese trade officials have repeatedly stressed that the country has been the victim of overzealous anti-dumping actions by foreign countries, which fail to take into account Chinese efficiency or its low labour and production costs.

The trade growth strategy adopted by the ministers spelled out broad principles for stimulating trade, including lowering costs, boosting trade finance and stimulating the service sector.

The investment policymaking guiding principles urged governments to avoid protectionism in relation to cross-border investment and establish “non-discriminatory, transparent and predictable” conditions for investment.

Global foreign exchange rates, in flux since Britain’s referendum to leave the European Union, were not mentioned in the joint statement, and the senior trade official involved in the talks said the issue had not been discussed.

On Britain’s exit vote, UK and EU representatives in Shanghai were at pains to stress that they would come up with a “sensible and mature new arrangement”, South Africa’s Minister for Trade and Industry Rob Davies told Reuters on Saturday.

AMMAN — Jordan Securities Commission (JSC) on Sunday said regulations on the trading of stocks of companies that are not listed on the Amman Stock Exchange (ASE) or delisted companies will become effective in the first week of August.

These companies’ shares, known as OTC (Over the Counter), will be traded at the ASE through financial brokers as soon as technical amendments are introduced to the electronic trading system.  JSC President Mohammad Hourani expected the move to have a positive impact on the securities market and overall trading. 

SHANGHAI — China will work with its G-20 partners to promote global trade growth, Beijing’s commerce minister said on Saturday, as the world’s top economies met in Shanghai.

Global trade is expected to grow at a tepid 2.8 per cent in 2016, the World Trade Organisation (WTO) said in April, with uncertainty over Britain’s decision to leave the EU only adding to concerns.

“The economic recovery and growth is still feeble and global trade is fluctuating at a low level,” Gao Hucheng said before ministers began talks, vowing: “China is willing to work with all parties with wisdom, courage and action.”

WTO Director General Roberto Azevedo said on Friday ahead of the talks that 2016 would be the fifth consecutive year with trade growth below 3 per cent — its weakest sustained level in 30 years.

He warned that there were “no immediate signs of significant change in the current trajectory for trade growth”.

Gao said ministers would discuss how to boost trade and coordinate global investment strategies, as well as how to strengthen investment among G-20 nations.

“The world is hopeful despite the still difficult tasks which lie in front of us. But there is still great hope and opportunities contained in this,” Gao said.

Saturday’s talks bring together G-20 trade ministers as well as representatives from organisations including the IMF, OECD and WTO. They will give a press conference on Sunday after two days of talks behind closed doors.

China, a key driver of global growth, has seen its GDP growth slip to its slowest rate in a quarter of a century, with expansion last year weakening to 6.9 per cent.

The world’s largest trader in goods also saw its total trade fall eight per cent last year.

The World Bank identified the slump in Chinese growth and the country’s economic transition as the key factor in a sharp slowdown in global trade last year, in a report released in March.

Beijing has been trying to retool its economy to encourage domestic consumption and move away from infrastructure investment and exports as the main drivers of growth, but the pace has been slow.

Azevedo also appealed for cooperation in the battle to spur trade.

“This is a time for governments to work together to see how trade can be used to boost growth, development and job creation,” he said on Friday.

“It is a time for vigilance against measures which hamper and restrict trade and against very damaging anti-trade rhetoric.”

AMMAN — Payments made through e-FAWATEERcom recorded an increase by 36.5 per cent at the end of May 2016, amounting to JD56.8 million, compared to JD41.6 million at the end of the same period last year.

Data of the bill payment service also showed that the number of bills and financial transactions settled rose by 14 per cent to 547,000, compared to 478,000 during the same period last year, according to the Jordan News Agency, Petra.

Government institutions accounted for most of the payments made through the service, supported by the Central Bank of Jordan, the news agency added. 

AMMAN — The Central Bank of Jordan (CBJ) figures revealed that the interest rate on deposits, extended by licensed banks operating in the Kingdom, are at the lowest level in more than five years.

Customers who have a savings account or a call deposit receive less than 1 per cent in interest, while those who have a time deposit account, held for a specific duration, may get an interest rate of 3.2 per cent, according to the CBJ figures.

The CBJ data also showed that the credit interest rate offered to the best clients was 8.39 per cent at the end of May 2016. 

LONDON — "How much oil lies beneath the desert sands of Saudi Arabia and how long will it last before running out?" is a question that has intrigued and confounded oil experts for five decades.

The kingdom has proven reserves of 266 billion barrels according to government estimates submitted to the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.

If these numbers are correct, Saudi Arabia's reserves will last for another 70 years at the average production rate of 10.2 million barrels per day reported for 2015.

But there is widespread scepticism about the official estimates, which were abruptly raised without explanation from 170 billion barrels in 1987 to 260 billion in 1989.

Official reserves have remained constant every year since then at 260-265 billion barrels, even as the country has consumed or exported another 94 billion barrels ("Statistical Review of World Energy", BP, 2016).

If the government data is accurate, the kingdom has managed the remarkable feat of exactly replacing each produced barrel with new discoveries or increased estimates of the amount recoverable from existing fields.

But most of the country's giant oil fields were discovered between 1936 and 1970 and no comparable discoveries have been made since then.

The implied increase in reserves must therefore come from enhanced estimates of the amount of oil recoverable from existing reservoirs.

The problem is that field-by-field production profiles and reserve estimates are state secrets known by only a small group of insiders, making it impossible to test or verify them.

Analysing Saudi reserves and trying to predict when the kingdom's production will begin to decline has been a graveyard for the reputation of professional oil analysts.

The kingdom is currently producing more oil than ever before, defying predictions that its output would peak and then fall.

Reserve estimates

The oil industry employs a number of different ways of classifying the amount of oil available for future production.

The broadest category is the total amount of original oil in place (OOIP) in the reservoir formation before production began.

In the 1970s, there was broad agreement that the OOIP of Saudi Arabia's discovered oil fields was around 530 billion barrels.

The estimate for original oil in place was reported to the US Senate's Subcommittee on International Economic Policy by executives for Arabian-American Oil Company (Aramco).

Aramco was then jointly owned by four US oil companies (Exxon, Texaco, Socal and Mobil) as well as the government of Saudi Arabia so its owners and executives could be required to testify.

The subcommittee report, now nearly 40 years old, contains some of the last detailed information about Saudi reserves in the public domain.

But not all of the original oil in place can be produced technically or profitably so most analysts focus on a series of narrower measures which look at the amount of technically and economically recoverable reserves.

Proved reserves, the most conservative and prudent measure, are those which are estimated to exist, and are technically and economically recoverable, with a probability of at least 90 per cent.

Probable reserves are those estimated to exist and be commercially recoverable with a probability of at least 50 per cent.

Possible reserves, the most speculative and optimistic measure, are estimated to exist and be commercially recoverable with a probability of at least 10 per cent.

In the late 1970s, Aramco put proven reserves at around 110 billion barrels, while the more speculative categories of probable and possible reserves were put at 178 billion barrels and 248 billion barrels respectively.

The question of which measure to use for production and planning purposes is a matter of judgment and caused controversy between the Aramco partners and the Saudi government in the 1970s.

Proved or probable?

Since 1980, the Saudi government has been the sole owner of Aramco. From 1982, detailed field-by-field information about the company's reserves and production has been restricted.

Saudi Arabia began reporting to OPEC that its "proved" reserves stood at around 168-170 billion barrels of crude oil.

The Saudi figure was much higher than the 110 billion barrels of proved reserves reported by the Aramco partners a few years before.

But it was very close to the figure for possible reserves that the Aramco partners had reported to the US Senate.

That raised the question if the Saudis had chosen to increase their reported reserve base by reporting probable reserves as proved reserves.

In 1988/89, the proved reserve figure jumped again to 260 billion barrels despite no major new discoveries. 

This was much higher than the proved figure reported by the Aramco partners, but not far off the figure of 248 billion for possible reserves they had reported in the 1970s.

Again that posed the question whether the Saudis were reporting possible reserves as proved to increase the size of their reserve base.

The Society of Petroleum Engineers and the US Securities and Exchange Commission have strict definitions for estimating and reporting reserves.

But it is far from clear that the "proven" reserves which Saudi Aramco has reported to OPEC employ the same definitions; because the calculations are secret outsiders have no way of verifying them.

Reserve growth

It is not uncommon for countries to produce far more oil than initial reserve estimates suggested would be possible.

Reserve increases can come from the discovery of new oil and gas deposits or from an increase in the estimated amount of oil that is commercially recoverable from an existing field.

Reserve growth from existing fields, also known as field appreciation, is one of the most important sources of increases in oil reserves in most countries.

As understanding of the reservoir increases, more information is known about its extent, and new technology and techniques become available, the amount of technically recoverable oil may rise ("Reserve growth of oil and gas fields", United States Geological Survey, 2013).

Because the calculation of reserves is deliberately conservative, it is fairly common for reserves initially reported as "possible" to become "probable" and eventually "proved".

But Saudi Arabia seems to have been unusually reliant on reserve growth within existing fields to revise its reserves up to 265 billion barrels and keep them there since the late 1980s.

Selling Aramco

Saudi leaders have announced plans to seek a stock market listing for Saudi Aramco and make up to 5 per cent of the company's shares available to investors.

The prospect of a partial floatation has triggered renewed interest in Aramco's reserves since they could be an important part of any valuation.

If Saudi Aramco was required to comply with the normal listing rules, it would have to make much more information available about its reserves and how they are calculated.

But there are reasons to be cautious about expecting much more transparency: it is far from clear that any share sale would include ownership of the reserves in the ground.

In the meantime, no one really knows how much more oil can be recovered from beneath the Saudi desert and adjoining areas in the Gulf.

Rystad Energy, a respected consultancy, puts Saudi Arabia's proved reserves at 70 billion barrels and its proved and probable reserves at 120 billion barrels.

If new field discoveries are included, the reserve figure could grow to somewhere between 168 billion and 212 billion barrels.

All these figures are substantially below the official numbers for proved reserves, though at the upper end the gap is relatively narrow.

The implication is that Saudi Arabia is relying on reserve growth from the reclassification of possible reserves and fresh discoveries to maintain its proved reserves at the same level since the 1980s. 

AMMAN — The Department of Statistics (DoS) said the country’s gross domestic product recorded a growth of 2.3 per cent in fixed market prices in the first quarter of 2016, compared to its 2015 Q1 results. 

A DoS report said the results of most “productive” sectors were positive, posting modest growth during the first quarter of this year.  

The electricity and water sector achieved the highest growth rate of 16.4 per cent, according to a DoS statement issued on Monday.

The agricultural sector registered a 6.4 per cent growth rate, followed by that of the “non-profit” special services sector at 4 per cent, according to the DoS statement.

Clawing closely behind, finance, insurance, real estate and business services achieved a 3.6 per cent growth.

The social and personal services sector recorded a 3.1 per cent in growth, followed by transport, storage and telecommunications at 3 per cent, the construction sector at 2.6 per cent and wholesale, and retail trade as well as hotels and restaurants at 1.6 per cent. 

Last month, the World Bank (WB) downgraded its 2016 global growth forecast to 2.4 per cent from the 2.9 per cent pace projected in January, saying the move was due to sluggish growth in advanced economies, stubbornly low commodity prices, weak global trade, and diminishing capital flows.

As for the region, the WB said growth is forecast to pick up slightly to 2.9 per cent in 2016, 1.1 percentage points less than expected in the January outlook. 

The WB downward revision came as oil prices were expected to track lower during this year, at an average of $41 per barrel. 

An envisaged upturn in average oil prices in 2017 is projected to support a recovery in regional growth to 3.5 per cent in 2017, the WB said.