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Praise, positive data pile up for French economy

Reforms to include improved training for adult workers

By - Feb 15,2018 - Last updated at Feb 15,2018

French President Emmanuel Macron (centre) speaks with an employee (left) and Amazon French Operations Director Ronan Bole (right) during a visit at the Amazon factory in Boves, near Amiens, France, on October 3, 2017 (Reuters file photo)

PARIS — The good news keeps coming for the French economy — data published on Thursday showed unemployment at its lowest level since 2009, while the head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) praised recent reforms by President Emmanuel Macron.

After years of being considered the "sick man of Europe", the French economy is showing its strongest growth in years, with optimism underpinned by the pro-business agenda being implemented by the government.

Statistics agency INSEE said on Thursday that unemployment had fallen to 8.9 per cent nation-wide in the final quarter of 2017, down 0.7 percentage points to its lowest level since 2009.

The uptick in the jobs market has led some companies to warn about skills shortages, a dramatic turnaround for an economy that has consistently lagged its better performing neighbours.

"We've had new job creation at a very high level in 2017 which was sufficient to reduce unemployment," commented economist Bruno Ducoudre at the OFCE economic institute.

On a day of bumper announcements, online giant Amazon also said that it planned to create 2,000 new jobs in France in 2018, most of them in its warehouses.

Economists stress that the improving economy is partly down to stronger growth across Europe, which is dragging France higher, but the head of the IMF on Thursday emphasised the role of recent reforms.

"We need to recognise clearly the quality and the ambition of the reforms that have been started," Christine Lagarde said on Thursday during a visit to the economy ministry in Paris.

Macron, a 40-year-old centrist elected in May, has promised a "transformation" of the economy and social system to make France an easier place to start companies and more attractive for investors.

His first annual budget cut taxes on companies and profits on financial investments, while his government is preparing a second wave of reforms focused on improving training for adult workers and the unemployed.

 

Economic growth is forecast to be around 2 per cent in 2018, though some analysts expect forecasts to start rising. Expansion of 1.9 per cent in 2017 was the highest level in six years, according to INSEE.

Volatile stock markets recover from US inflation scare

By - Feb 14,2018 - Last updated at Feb 14,2018

Traders and financial professionals work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange ahead of the closing bell, in New York City on Monday (AFP photo)

LONDON — Stock markets see-sawed on Wednesday as volatility returned, sparked by surprisingly strong American consumer price data briefly rekindling inflationary fears that last week sent world markets into a tailspin.

European equity markets took fright, briefly tumbling into the red, as higher-than-expected US inflation fed expectations that borrowing costs might be ramped up very soon. 

US consumer price inflation jumped to 0.5 per cent in January and the core consumer price index, which excludes volatile food and fuel categories, rose 0.3 per cent, the largest increase since January 2017.

Wall Street opened lower in a knee-jerk reaction to the data, but then turned positive as investors felt that the initial reaction had been overdone, particularly as US retail sales figures, released at the same time, showed a weak reading.

Wall Street’s rebound helped soothe frayed nerves in Europe, where key indices closed with healthy gains and mostly at better levels than those seen before the US release.

 

No ‘game-changer’ 

 

“This is not a game-changer,” said Viraj Patel, strategist at ING, said of the data.

A Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike was widely expected for next month, Patel said, but the market was not convinced of the central bank’s “ability to deliver more than three hikes this year” overall. 

However, while avoiding a rerun of last week’s bloodbath that wiped trillions of dollars off stock valuations, “markets are responding with higher volatility in light of today’s data”, Marvin Loh, strategist at BNY Mellon said.

“Volatility has crept back into the market,” he said.

Oliver Jones at Capital Economics, meanwhile, warned that the respite for the US stock market was probably going to be short-lived.

“Given how markets have reacted to recent data, it certainly seems likely that the stock market would remain under fire,” he said.

So much for the calm 

 

Earlier, analysts had noted the return of some semblance of calm to the markets following the recent volatility. 

In Asia, Hong Kong’s main stocks index had closed up more than 2 per cent, extending a rebound from the sell-off last week. 

Tokyo, however, fell to another four-month low as the yen strengthened against the dollar, at one point hitting a 15-month high. 

Investors were also unimpressed by weaker-than-expected economic data for Japan in the last quarter of 2017.

In Europe, the continent’s biggest economy, Germany, expanded by 0.6 per cent in the final quarter of last year, official data showed. 

Global stock markets have tumbled in recent weeks, wiping out previous strong gains, largely on concerns that high US inflation will force the Fed to tighten the cost of borrowing faster than anticipated this year. 

“Given the recent stock market slump, risk aversion has grown,” Shinichiro Kadota, foreign exchange strategist at Barclays Securities, told AFP.

In corporate activity, shares in pan-European TV giant Sky rallied after the satellite broadcaster beat rival BT to show the bulk of live Premier League football matches in Britain over the next few years.

 

As global stock markets rose, the dollar lost ground against its peers in the European afternoon, having started the session higher, while bond yields rose.

Iraq aims to raise oil output to 7m barrels — minister

By - Feb 13,2018 - Last updated at Feb 13,2018

Director general of the Iraqi ministry of planning, Azhaar Hussein, speaks during the Kuwait international conference for the reconstruction of Iraq in Kuwait City, on Tuesday (AFP photo)

KUWAIT CITY — Iraq, the second largest oil producer in the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cartel, plans to sharply increase its output capacity to seven million barrels a day by 2022, its oil minister said on Tuesday.

Iraq now has an oil production capacity of 5 million barrels per day (bpd) but is pumping just over 4.7 million under an OPEC output cut agreement.

“Our target is to reach seven million bpd by 2022,” Jabbar Al Luaybi said, while presenting oil and gas projects available for private foreign investors.

Luaybi said Iraq sits on proven crude reserves of 145 billion barrels but he is confident the figure will jump to around 250 billion barrels with sufficient investment.

He said the war-battered nation plans to boost natural gas production to 7 billion cubic feet per day by 2021 from the current output of 2.7 billion cubic feet.

Luaybi called on foreign investors to seize huge investment opportunities in the oil and gas sector where billions of dollars are required immediately in accordance with an Iraqi reconstruction plan.

He was speaking during the second day of the three-day Kuwait International Conference for the Reconstruction of Iraq where Baghdad hopes to collect pledges totalling $88.2 billion.

The minister said attacks by the terror group Daesh in Iraq had reduced the country’s refining capacity from 930,000bpd to just 450,000bpd.

But reconstruction efforts have succeeded in regaining 70,000bpd.

He outlined plans to build seven new refineries with a production capacity of 700,000bpd by 2021.

Luaybi also outlined plans to build new pipelines and export facilities mainly in the oil-rich southern region.

Stocks bounce back in edgy global markets

By - Feb 12,2018 - Last updated at Feb 12,2018

A pedestrian is reflected in a window where an investor sits looking at a board displaying stock prices at the Australian Securities Exchange in Sydney, Australia, on Friday (Reuters file photo)

LONDON — US and European stock markets rebounded on Monday, but the danger of ever more volatility kept investors' nerves under strain.

Wild price swings accompanied last week's heavy stock market losses, the worst weekly equity slump in years, making it hard for investors to read the market with any degree of confidence from one moment to the next.

"Investors are breathing a sigh of relief after the torrid times last week," said Rebecca O'Keeffe, head of investment at Interactive Investor.

"Buying the dip [bargain hunting] has been a very difficult call in recent days, with every attempt at engagement punished in subsequent market moves, so investors will be hoping that this is a genuine buying opportunity."

But such hopes may well be premature, some analysts cautioned.

 

 'Won't last' 

 

"Investors will be aware the calm probably won't last," said Jasper Lawler, head of research at LCG.

Brokers Charles Schwab described Wall Street as remaining "skittish" while Capital Economics calculated that the valuation of American stocks "appears stretched by most measures" even after last week's brutal correction. 

Michael Hewson at CMC Markets, meanwhile, said that there is "a whole new breed of equity investors and traders who have never experienced the type of volatility that we've gone through over the last few days", making their "untried reaction" another factor of market uncertainty.

At the heart of market worries lies the rapidly rising likelihood of monetary policy tightening by key central banks, notably the Federal Reserve, but also the European Central Bank and the Bank of England, as inflationary pressures build up.

Analysts are now predicting that Wednesday's US inflation report for January, coupled with fresh retail sales data, may well spark another rollercoaster ride for equities if they confirm inflationary fears.

A weak reading, however, may give US monetary policymakers a reason to hold off on raising rates at a faster clip.

 

Yield watching 

 

The sudden market fragility comes after a stellar 2017 and a January that saw record and multi-year highs for stock markets around the world, after years of post-financial crisis stimulus.

But as central banks pull back, there is now concern that big spending plans by the US government may boost the budget deficit, making the case for higher rates more pressing still.

Rising yields on government bonds are an indication that such a scenario is seen as likely in the markets, with investors demanding higher interest rates if they are to accept future inflation eating into their returns.

"Should yields march further higher — which is quite possible with the upcoming US inflation and retail sales data to look forward to on Wednesday — then there is a possibility the equity markets could be in for another volatile week," predicted Fawad Razaqzada at Forex.com.

 

 Asia soft 

 

Monday got off to a calm start across Asia but while some exchanges managed to stay in positive territory, the afternoon saw gains eroded or wiped out.

Hong Kong, which sank more than 9 per cent last week, closed slightly lower, while Shanghai and Singapore both posted modest gains.

Seoul also gained, with traders cheered by signs of a thaw in relations between North and South Korea during the Winter Olympics.

Tokyo, a benchmark for Asian market trends, was closed for a public holiday.

In commodities trading, both main oil contracts climbed on Monday after sliding last week.

Bitcoin, another hotbed of volatility, recovered slightly from Friday's levels.

 

The dollar's attempted recovery appeared to fizzle out by the European afternoon, with the greenback lower against both the euro and the yen.

World Bank’s IFC calls for investment in Iraq reconstruction

By - Feb 11,2018 - Last updated at Feb 11,2018

A Kuwaiti journalist speaks on his phone in front of the logo of the Iraq reconstruction conference, at the media centre in Kuwait City on Sunday (AFP photo)

KUWAIT — The World Bank's private sector arm urged international companies on Sunday to overcome concerns about funding reconstruction projects in Iraq and seize high-yield investment opportunities in the country.

The International Finance Corporation's (IFC) country manager for Iraq, Ziad Badr, was speaking in Kuwait ahead of an international conference this week for donors and investors to rebuild and revive Iraq's economy, as the country emerges from a devastating three-war against the terror group Daesh.

"I don't think that in any other part of the world there are such investment opportunities," Badr said in a speech at the Kuwait Chamber of Commerce and Industry, giving as an example a Lebanese firm making a 24 per cent return on its stake in a luxury hotel in Erbil, the capital of the Kurdish region of northern Iraq.

The IFC has about $1.2 billion in investments in different Iraqi ventures including banks, cement plants and telecommunications, and is preparing to announce a $250 million investment in a telecommunication venture, he said.

The Iraqi National Investment Commission (NIC) last week published a list of 157 projects it will seek investment for at the February 12-14 International Conference for Reconstruction of Iraq, estimated to cost about $100 billion in total.

The projects include rebuilding destroyed facilities like Mosul's airport and new investments to strengthen, and diversify the economy away from oil sales, by developing transport, agriculture and industries based on the nation's energy wealth, including petrochemicals and oil refining.

Rebuilding homes, hospitals, schools, roads, businesses and telecommunications is key to providing jobs for the young, ending the displacement of hundreds of thousands of people and putting an end to several decades of political and sectarian violence.

About 1,900 delegates have registered to attend the conference, representing foreign governments, private sector companies and international organisations, NIC head Sami Al Araji told the gathering at the Kuwait Chamber of Commerce.

"We are at the crossroads, the world now is supporting us, we have to seize the opportunity," he said.

Baghdad is determined to clamp down on "bureaucratic routine and corruption that in some cases are delaying investments", he said, responding to complaints by Kuwait companies about the difficulties of doing business in Iraq.

One of them, a supplier of telecommunications equipment, told the conference he had been waiting six months to get a $5 million payment for work done for the Iraqi government.

Iraq is the 10th most corrupt country in the world, according to Transparency International. 

Iraq declared victory over Daesh in December, having taken back all the territory captured by the militants in 2014 and 2015. 

A US -led coalition supported the Iraqi forces, especially in the battle to dislodge them from Mosul, their de facto capital in northern Iraq, in July.

Iraq reopened to foreign investment in 2003 after the US — led invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein, but the vast majority of the billions of dollars invested went to increasing its oil and natural gas production.

It has become the second-largest crude exporter of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, after Saudi Arabia, with a daily output of 4.4 million barrels.

Wall Street ends whipsaw week on upbeat note

By - Feb 10,2018 - Last updated at Feb 10,2018

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange moments before the closing bell in New York City on Thursday (AFP photo)

 

Wall Street's main stock indexes climbed more than 1 per cent on Friday, giving investors some solace after a week of huge swings that shook the market out of months of calm.

Even with Friday's gains, the benchmark S&P 500 fell 5.2 per cent for the week, its biggest weekly percentage drop since January 2016, as volatility spiked back up.

During Friday's session alone, the S&P 500 swung from as high as up 2.2 per cent to down 1.9 per cent, echoing the big swings of the past week. The Dow moved in a range of more than 1,000 points.

The fresh volatility came a day after the benchmark S&P 500 and the Dow industrials confirmed they were in correction territory, both falling more than 10 per cent from January 26 record highs. 

Friday's session marked the latest day of sharp swings in the past week that have pulled stocks lower after a steady climb for months to record highs.

"I don't think the market is focused on fundamentals at all," Anwiti Bahuguna, senior portfolio manager at Columbia Threadneedle Investments in Boston. "It's very volatile."

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 330.44 points, or 1.38 per cent, to 24,190.9, the S&P 500 gained 38.55 points, or 1.49 per cent, to 2,619.55 and the Nasdaq Composite added 97.33 points, or 1.44 per cent, to 6,874.49.

Wall Street ends whipsaw week on upbeat note

By - Feb 10,2018 - Last updated at Feb 10,2018

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange moments before the closing bell in New York City on Thursday (AFP photo)

 

Wall Street's main stock indexes climbed more than 1 per cent on Friday, giving investors some solace after a week of huge swings that shook the market out of months of calm.

Even with Friday's gains, the benchmark S&P 500 fell 5.2 per cent for the week, its biggest weekly percentage drop since January 2016, as volatility spiked back up.

During Friday's session alone, the S&P 500 swung from as high as up 2.2 per cent to down 1.9 per cent, echoing the big swings of the past week. The Dow moved in a range of more than 1,000 points.

The fresh volatility came a day after the benchmark S&P 500 and the Dow industrials confirmed they were in correction territory, both falling more than 10 per cent from January 26 record highs. 

Friday's session marked the latest day of sharp swings in the past week that have pulled stocks lower after a steady climb for months to record highs.

"I don't think the market is focused on fundamentals at all," Anwiti Bahuguna, senior portfolio manager at Columbia Threadneedle Investments in Boston. "It's very volatile."

 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 330.44 points, or 1.38 per cent, to 24,190.9, the S&P 500 gained 38.55 points, or 1.49 per cent, to 2,619.55 and the Nasdaq Composite added 97.33 points, or 1.44 per cent, to 6,874.49.

US jobless claims drop to near 45-year low

By - Feb 08,2018 - Last updated at Feb 08,2018

Job seekers apply for the 300 available positions at a new Target retail store in San Francisco, California, on August 9, 2012 (Reuters file photo)

WASHINGTON — The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, dropping to its lowest level in nearly 45 years as the labour market tightened further, bolstering expectations of faster wage growth this year.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits decreased 9,000 to a seasonally adjusted 221,000 for the week that ended on February 3, the Labour Department said on Thursday. Claims fell to 216,000 in mid-January, which was the lowest level since January 1973.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast claims rising to 232,000 in the latest week. Last week marked the 153rd straight week that claims remained below the 300,000 threshold, which is associated with a strong labour market. That is the longest such stretch since 1970, when the labour market was much smaller.

The labour market is near full employment, with the jobless rate at a 17-year low of 4.1 percent. The tighter labour market is starting to exert upward pressure on wage growth. 

The Labour Department reported last week that average hourly earnings jumped 2.9 per cent year-on-year in January, the largest gain since June 2009, after advancing 2.7 per cent in December.

Strong wage growth supports optimism among Federal Reserve officials that inflation will increase toward the US central bank's 2 per cent target this year. US financial markets expect the Fed will raise interest rates in March. 

The Fed has forecast three rate increases for this year, but much will depend on the inflation outlook and financial conditions. The central bank lifted borrowing costs three times in 2017.

US financial markets were little moved by the claims data.

The Labour Department said claims for Maine were estimated last week. It also said claims-taking procedures in Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands had still not returned to normal months after the territories were slammed by Hurricanes Irma and Maria.

Last week, the four-week moving average of initial claims, considered a better measure of labour market trends as it irons out week-to-week volatility, declined 10,000 to 224,500, the lowest level since March 1973.

 

The claims report also showed the number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid fell 33,000 to 1.92 million in the week that ended on January 27. The four-week moving average of the so-called continuing claims rose 12,500 to 1.95 million.

Wall Street gains as volatility eases, Dow up over 200 points

By - Feb 07,2018 - Last updated at Feb 07,2018

Tourists look at a stock indicator showing the foreign exchange rate of the Japanese yen against the US dollar and euro in Tokyo on Wednesday (AFP photo)

US stocks overturned early losses to trade higher on Wednesday as some buyers returned to a market still shaking from a record fall for the Dow Jones Industrial Average earlier this week.

At 10:09 am ET (15:09 GMT), the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 228.25 points, or 0.92 per cent, at 25,141.02. 

The S&P 500 rose 19.12 points, or 0.7 per cent, to 2,714.26 and the Nasdaq Composite was up 22.72 points, or 0.32 per cent, at 7,138.60.

"It looks like a little bit of a stabilisation trade overnight," said John Brady, senior vice president at futures brokerage R.J. O'Brien & Associates in Chicago. "I don't know if it's over, but a market range may be established." 

Gains in industrial and consumer discretionary stocks led advances on the S&P and the Dow.

Boeing and United Tech rose about 1.5 per cent, providing the biggest boost to the Dow, while Amazon's 1 per cent rise helped lift the S&P.

The S&P energy index was up more than 1 per cent, led by Anadarko Petroleum's 5 per cent gain and an uptick in oil prices. 

A wild session on Tuesday had seen the Dow swing more than 1,100 points from peak to trough and ended with the benchmark S&P 500 recording its best day since just before President Donald Trump's election in 2016.

Traders are still braced for more volatility as they try to figure out if the swings of the past week are the start of a deeper correction or just a temporary blip in the US market's nine-year bull run.

The pivotal gauge of S&P 500 volatility, the VIX, opened at a relatively elevated 31 points and slipped to 21.74. The VIX on Tuesday hit a more than two-and-a-half year high above 50, after trading, on average, below 20 for months.

Some investors fear the market is over-stretched in the context of higher inflation and rising bond yields as central banks withdraw their easy money policies of recent years. The recent rout has wiped about $4 trillion off world equities.

US 10-year yields were at 2.789 per cent, up from 2.766 per cent on Tuesday.

US President Donald Trump, who has repeatedly praised Wall Street gains during his first year in office, on Wednesday dismissed recent market rout, saying stocks should not be falling amid strong economic news.

"In the 'old days, when good news was reported, the Stock Market would go up. Today, when good news is reported, the Stock Market goes down. Big mistake, and we have so much good [great] news about the economy!" Trump wrote on Twitter.

Snapchat owner Snap soared 21 per cent after it reported surging growth in users and revenue in its latest quarter.

Advancing issues outnumbered decliners on the NYSE by 2,068 to 720. On the Nasdaq, 1,596 issues rose and 1,056 fell.

 

The S&P 500 index showed 2 new 52-week highs and no new lows, while the NASDAQ recorded 13 new highs and 21 new lows.

World stocks dive as fear grips markets

New York Dow Jones saw its steepest ever one-day point drop on Monday

By - Feb 06,2018 - Last updated at Feb 06,2018

Traders signal offers in the S&P options pit at the Cboe Global Markets, Inc. exchange (previously referred to as CBOE Holdings, Inc.) on Tuesday in Chicago, Illinois (AFP photo)

LONDON — Panic gripped trading floors across the world on Tuesday, with Asia and Europe plunging after record-breaking losses on Wall Street, as investors fretted over the prospect of rising US interest rates and took profits following months of markets euphoria.

The selloff began last Friday when bright US non-farm payrolls data sparked fears that inflation will surge this year — and that the Federal Reserve will be forced to raise borrowing costs more quickly than anticipated.

In initial trade on Tuesday, European stock markets collapsed by about 3.5 per cent, mirroring dramatic falls across Asia.

"It's not doom and gloom, and it's not financial markets Armageddon; it's just a much needed and much overdue correction," AxiTrader analyst James Hughes told AFP.

"There are four stages of a fall: Hope, greed, panic and fear. We are not at fear, but we are at panic at the moment — which is only natural after a 1,175-point fall."

New York's Dow Jones Industrial Average saw its steepest ever one-day point drop on Monday, shedding a total of 1,175.20 points or a hefty 4.6 per cent in value.

Ten-year US Treasury yields are still hovering near four-year peaks. European markets later trimmed their losses somewhat on Tuesday to stand about 2.5 per cent lower compared with Monday's closing level.

At the start of trading on Tuesday the Dow shed another 2.7 per cent, officially moving into what is considered a correction — a drop of 10 per cent from a recent high.

"US stocks are adding to a sharp pullback seen in the past few trading sessions, with the recent jump in bond yields and signs of inflation ticking higher appearing to spur on the selloff..." said analysts at Charles Schwab brokerage.

The S&P 500 shed 1.2 per cent at the open, with the Nasdaq Composite dropping 1.9 per cent. 

 

 'Time to take revenge' 

 

"Markets usually grind to the upside, but fall like a rock," said analyst Naeem Aslam at trading firm ThinkMarkets.

"Traders have been looking at the market for the past year moving in one direction which was skewed to the upside. Now, it's time for the bears to take their revenge."

Prior to this week's chaotic selloff, Wall Street had enjoyed an impressive record-breaking run ever since Trump's 2016 election on hopes over the US president's pro-business tax-cutting policies.

Asia and Europe had meanwhile reaped bumper gains from the improving economic outlook.

"If investors had been waiting for an opportunity to take profits, the prospect of higher than expected inflation and tightening by the Fed provided just that," added Richard Hunter, head of markets at online stockbroker Interactive Investor.

"Rising interest rates, whilst potentially good news for savers, increase the cost of borrowing and the possibility of loan defaults," he told AFP.

"Mixed in with that, higher bond yields could increase the attractiveness of bonds as an investment destination, some of which will be at the expense of equities."

On Tuesday, Tokyo stocks led a collapse throughout Asia, briefly diving almost 7 per cent before closing down 4.7 per cent.

Hong Kong lost more than five per cent in its worst day since summer 2015, while Sydney and Singapore each sank 3 per cent.

On currency markets, the yen, considered a go-to unit in times of turmoil and uncertainty, climbed against the dollar.

Bitcoin continued its spiral downwards after some banks banned their customers from buying it with credit cards. The news is the latest to hit the cryptocurrency after recent crackdowns by authorities in India, South Korea, China and Russia.

 

The unit was down more than 20 per cent to a three-month low at $5,922 — less than a third of its value near $20,000 in December.

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