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KUWAIT CITY — Oil ministers from the leading member states of the Organisation of Petroleum exporting Countries (OPEC) said on Sunday they expect prices will arrest their recent slide and rebalance early next year, when a deal on new production cuts takes effect.

Oil prices have shed more than 36 per cent since early October to trade at $54 per barrel, due to fears of oversupply and weak global demand.

But President of OPEC and UAE Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei said that the surplus in the oil market was small compared to 2017 and expected it to vanish in one or two months. 

"Based on available figures, we have around 26 million barrels of surplus... compared to 340 million barrels in early 2017," Mazrouei told a press conference in Kuwait City.

"I think that we can easily do with this surplus and reach market rebalance in one or two months... in the first quarter of next year," he said.

OPEC — a cartel of producer countries that has long manipulated output of the commodity to influence global prices in members' favour — and non-OPEC members agreed in early December to trim production by 1.2 million barrels a day from January 1, in a bid to shore up sagging prices.

Mazrouei said that there has been higher than anticipated supply on the market in recent months, as US sanctions on Iran have had a less pronounced effect on the country's oil exports than had been expected.

Iraq's Oil Minister Thamer Al Ghadban said that there is a consensus among OPEC and non-OPEC producers to comply with the new agreement to trim output in a bid to stabilise the market.

He said the new agreement is valid for six months and the ministers will meet in April to assess the impact of the cuts.

Ghadban said he believes that the new measures taken by producers will "stop the slide in oil prices".

Mazrouei said that producers are ready to renew the agreement or increase cuts in case the market does not balance.

"If the production cuts of 1.2 million barrels a day is not enough, we will meet again to see what is enough and apply it," he said.

During their meeting next April, the producers are also expected to sign a long-term agreement to formalise cooperation between OPEC and non-OPEC members over oil output. 

OPEC has lately been cooperating closely with Russia and other non-cartel producers, in a bid to impose greater control over global output and prices. 

LONDON, England — London's Gatwick Airport reopened on Friday after a mystery saboteur wrought 36 hours of travel chaos for more than 100,000 Christmas travellers by using drones to play cat-and-mouse with police snipers and the army.

Sussex police made two arrests late on Friday in connection with the disruption and urged the public and passengers around the airport to remain vigilant. 

After the biggest disruption at Gatwick since an Icelandic volcanic ash cloud in 2010, the airport had said around 700 planes would take off on Friday, although there would still be delays and cancellations.

Gatwick, Britain's second busiest airport, briefly closed again on Friday to investigate a new drone sighting but was soon operating as normal.

"Flights have resumed," a spokeswoman said. "The military measures we have in place at the airport have provided us with reassurance necessary to re-open our airfield."

Britain deployed unidentified military technology to guard the airport against what transport minister Chris Grayling said were thought to be several drones. "This kind of incident is unprecedented anywhere in the world," he said. 

The motivation of the drone operator, or operators, was unclear. Police said there was nothing to suggest the crippling of one of Europe's busiest airports was a terrorist attack.

Gatwick's drone nightmare is thought to be the most disruptive yet at a major airport and indicates a new vulnerability that will be scrutinised by security forces and airport operators across the world.

The army and police snipers were called in to hunt down the drones, thought to be industrial-style craft, which flew near the airport every time authorities tried to reopen it on Thursday.

No group has claimed responsibility publicly and police said there was no evidence another state was involved.

Sussex Police Assistant Chief Constable Steve Barry said they were keeping an open mind about who was responsible. 

"In terms of the motivation, there's a whole spectrum of possibilities, from the really high-end criminal behaviour that we've seen, all the way down to potentially, just individuals trying to be malicious, trying to disrupt the airport," he said.

After a boom in sales, unmanned aerial vehicles have become a growing menace at airports across the world. In Britain, the number of near misses between private drones and aircraft more than tripled between 2015 and 2017, with 92 incidents recorded last year.

Thermal imaging? 

The British Airline Pilots' Association (BALPA) said it understood "detection and tracking equipment" had been installed around Gatwick's perimeter. 

BALPA said that it was extremely concerned at the risk of a drone collision. Flying drones within 1 km of a British airport boundary is punishable by five years in prison.

The defence ministry refused to comment on what technology was deployed but drone experts said airports needed to deploy specialist radar reinforced by thermal imaging technology to detect such unmanned flying vehicles.

Other ways to tackle them is typically by frequency jamming that can disable or disrupt control signals and the GPS signals that allow the drones to navigate.

The Telegraph newspaper had reported earlier that the perpetrator had circled the drone around the airport building and flashed its lights. A description of the drone by witnesses had enabled experts to determine the model of the machine, according to the report.

The drone sightings caused misery for travellers, many sleeping on the airport floor as they searched for alternative routes to holidays and Christmas family gatherings.

Flights were halted at 21:03 GMT on Wednesday after two drones were spotted near the airport. The disruption affected at least 120,000 people on Wednesday and Thursday but flights were restarted at 06:14 GMT on Friday.

At 17:40 GMT flights were suspended again but restarted less than an hour later.

It was not immediately clear what the financial impact would be on the main airlines operating from Gatwick including easyJet , British Airways and Norwegian.

Britain's Civil Aviation Authority said it considered the event to be an "extraordinary circumstance" meaning airlines are not obliged to pay compensation to affected passengers. 

Airlines will have to refund customers who no longer wish to travel, however, and try to reschedule flights to get passengers to their destinations.

Some airport staff handed out chocolate and Christmas elf toys to stranded passengers.

Some, like Sarah Garghan-Watson, chose to stick it out at the airport overnight, having arrived at 8am on Thursday.

"It's now 2 o'clock in the morning at Gatwick, and it's very bright and very noisy. It's now also very cold," she said in a video shown on Sky.

"All I can see tonight... is a sign that says 'no more sleeps until the beach'. And here we are, sleeping, in the stairs at Gatwick, because there's no flights."

TOKYO — Tokyo prosecutors have appealed a court decision that prevents further detention of Carlos Ghosn, a surprise ruling which could free the ousted chairman of Nissan Motor Co. for the first time since his arrest for alleged financial misconduct.

The Tokyo district court on Thursday also decided against extending the detention of Greg Kelly, a former Nissan executive who was arrested along with Ghosn on November 19.

There is no set timing for a decision on the appeal, but an appeal defence lawyers lodged previously to prevent the executives' rearrest was rejected in about three hours.

Late on Thursday, a man resembling Ghosn's lawyer Motonari Otsuru entered the tower-like Tokyo Detention Centre where Ghosn and Kelly are held, passing a crowd of waiting camera crews, a Reuters journalist reported from the scene. The man did not make any comments. Kelly's lawyer was not available for comment.

The executives have not been able to make any public statements since their initial arrest, though local media have reported that both men have denied wrongdoing.

Ghosn led Nissan, Mitsubishi Motors Corp. and France's Renault SA. He was indicted on December 10 for allegedly understating his income by about half over a five-year period from 2010, and rearrested the same day for the same alleged crime covering the past three years. The 10-day detention period in the second instance ran out on Thursday.

The court had widely been expected to extend the detention for at least another 10 days, as granting bail to suspects who insist on their innocence has until recently been unusual in Japan. It did not disclose reasons for its decision.

The high-profile case has put Japan's criminal justice system under international scrutiny and sparked criticism for some of its practices, including keeping suspects in detention for long periods and prohibiting defence lawyers from being present during interrogations, which can last eight hours a day.

The court's decision could reflect sensitivity to that criticism as well as changing attitudes in the courts, said Masashi Akita, a defence lawyer in Osaka with over 30 years' experience.

"They are very nervous about criticism of their lenient approach toward detention. This is a typical case of such changing, I suppose," Akita said in e-mailed responses to Reuters' questions. "I think this case has a big impact and effect on the Japanese justice practice, and such a move is favourable for the defence side."

Public broadcaster NHK said Ghosn could be released on Thursday or Friday if any appeal by prosecutors is rejected by the court and bail is granted. However, Akita said it could take until the middle of next week for all procedures to run their course — if indeed the men are freed.

Bail amounts

Ghosn's arrest marked a dramatic fall for a leader once hailed for rescuing Nissan from the brink of bankruptcy.

Accustomed to a globe-trotting lifestyle, Ghosn has been detained in a small room without a heater and a toilet in the corner. Authorities have limited his opportunities to shower and shave, a person familiar with the matter previously told Reuters.

It was not immediately clear how much bail would be, or if would even be granted.

Activist fund manager Yoshiaki Murakami, arrested in 2006 for insider trading, paid an initial 500 million yen ($4.47 million) in bail.

At the centre of allegations against Ghosn is his Nissan income, with Tokyo prosecutors charging the executive for failing to disclose compensation that he had arranged to receive later.

Nissan has said a whistleblower investigation also uncovered personal use of company funds and other misconduct.

The scandal has shaken the Nissan-Mitsubishi-Renault alliance, with Nissan Chief Executive Hiroto Saikawa calling for changes to weaken the clout of Renault SA, which owns a controlling stake in Nissan.

Renault has so far not replaced Ghosn as its head, saying his compensation had been in compliance with law and governance guidelines.

Documents seen by Reuters showed that some discussions about compensating Ghosn out of the public eye were not confined to Nissan, but also included Renault executives. Renault told Reuters that any such pay would have had to be made public in France.

Nissan on Thursday said Saikawa earlier this week held a one-on-one meeting with Renault acting boss Thierry Bollore, saying Saikawa described the meeting as "positive". It did not disclose details of the discussions.

TOKYO — SoftBank Corp. shares sank 15 per cent on debut, wiping $9 billion off their value, as investors sold off the telecoms operator after its record IPO on worries about a recent service outage and its exposure to Chinese telecoms gear maker Huawei.

The poor start for the unit of tech investment giant SoftBank Group Corp.. meant that for Japan’s mom-and-pop investors concerns about the company and the nation’s telecoms market trumped the appeal of the group’s charismatic founder Masayoshi Son.

Such a debut is uncommon in the Japanese IPO market. Of 82 IPOs so far this year, SoftBank Corp.’s $23.5 billion float was only the seventh to open below the offering price. Among recent major IPOs, Japan Display was the only one to flop, suffering a fall in its 2014 debut.

“There was a disruption in its network early this month as well as Huawei’s issues. There hasn’t been good news involving SoftBank recently,” said Tetsuro Ii, chief executive officer at Commons Asset Management.

Shares of SoftBank Corp. closed at 1,282 yen, 14.5 per cent lower than its IPO price of 1,500 yen and giving the telco a market cap of about 6.1 trillion yen — about 1.1 trillion yen below its value at the time of the IPO. Shares opened trading at 1,463 yen. “It was beyond our expectations that the shares would fall that much,” said a senior executive at one of SoftBank Corp.’s domestic lead underwriters, declining to be named since he was not authorised to discuss the matter with the media. 

SoftBank Corp. shares were the most heavily traded on the Tokyo Stock Exchange’s first section, as amid heightened risk aversion the benchmark Nikkei 225 index fell to a nine-month low, closing down 0.6 per cent. SoftBank Group lost 0.9 per cent.

The IPO was Japan’s biggest ever and just shy of the world record $25 billion 2014 listing of Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba Group Holding, a SoftBank Group portfolio company. 

SoftBank Group raised 2.65 trillion yen in the IPO. It will retain about 63 per cent of the newly listed unit should a greenshoe option be exercised in full. The IPO is a milestone in the conglomerate’s transformation into primarily a global tech investor.

During the IPO period, Japan’s third-largest mobile phone network provider by subscriber numbers suffered a rare nationwide service outage, which it said would not affect earnings or dividends. 

Adding to investor worries, SoftBank Corp.’s relationship with Huawei Technologies Co. Ltd. came under scrutiny as governments around the world moved to shut out the Chinese firm amid worries its equipment could facilitate Chinese spying. Huawei has repeatedly insisted Beijing has no influence over it.

The Japanese company on Thursday downplayed the impact a shut-out of Huawei equipment would have, with SoftBank Corp. CTO Junichi Miyakawa saying the gap between the Chinese maker’s 5G gear and its competitors’ has closed and that the potential cost of replacing existing Huawei hardware would only be hundreds of millions of yen. 

SoftBank wants further clarity on the Japanese government’s stance before making a decision on Huawei gear, the company said. It plans to replace the network equipment, two sources said last week. 

Even before SoftBank kicked off the IPO process in November, there had been uncertainty over the growth prospects of the Japanese wireless industry after the government said there was scope for the carriers to cut fees by as much as 40 per cent.

In response Son has said SoftBank will increase automation and reduce headcount at its mobile operations by 40 per cent over the next two to three years, focusing instead on new growth areas. It has already shifted 2,500 staff to ventures outside the core telecoms business like payments app PayPay. 

Other headwinds include Japan’s ageing population and Rakuten’s entry to the wireless market, said Chris Lane, senior analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein. “All of these things point to earnings pressure on the telco side for all operators, not just SoftBank,” he said.

SoftBank Corp. is forecasting 3.3 per cent revenue growth and 9.7 per cent operating profit growth in the financial year ending in March compared to a year earlier, with profits underpinned by demand for high-speed internet services. 

IPOs are popular among Japanese retail investors, many of whom see them as sure profit bets given their tendency to open much higher than offering prices.

In SoftBank Corp.’s case, an added attraction was its promise of a dividend payout of 85 per cent, much higher than those of rivals NTT Docomo and KDDI Corp..

“A dividend yield around 5 per cent is attractive, but the mobile communication industry is expected to face headwinds from next fiscal year,” Ii of Commons Asset Management said. 

The IPO attracted about twice as many retail orders as the number of shares offered, sources at lead underwriters said last week. A smaller portion of shares offered to overseas institutional investors was three times oversubscribed.

It remains to be seen whether SoftBank’s weak market debut will have a negative impact on Japan’s IPO market, where most of companies are small startups and demand can easily overwhelm the small number of shares offered.

Kudan Inc., a startup developing “artificial perception” technology, made its debut on Wednesday on the Tokyo Stock Exchange’s Mothers market. Its shares were untraded due to a glut of buy orders.

RIYADH — Saudi Arabia on Tuesday announced an expansionary budget for 2019 but projected a shortfall for the sixth year in a row due to low oil prices.

The budget projects a deficit of $35 billion, still about 32 per cent lower than the estimated deficit for the current calendar year.

Spending is estimated at $295 billion, the largest in the oil-rich kingdom's history, while revenues, mostly from oil, are estimated at $260 billion, said a statement read by King Salman.

Saudi Arabia, which has introduced economic reforms aimed at reducing its dependence on oil, has posted budget shortfalls since 2014 when crude prices crashed.

"We are determined to pursue economic reforms, control fiscal management, bolster transparency and strengthen the private sector," the king said in a brief statement to the cabinet.

The finance ministry said the kingdom, which is pumping about 10.5 million barrels of oil per day, succeeded in reducing the estimated budget deficit in 2018 by 31 per cent to $36 billion due to the partial rebound in crude prices.

The ministry also said the country's economy, which contracted by 0.9 per cent last year, grew by 2.3 per cent.

It expects growth to hit 2.6 per cent in 2019.

The ministry said the Gulf kingdom would resort to drawing on state reserves and borrowing to plug the deficit.

MEXICO CITY — The first budget presented by Mexico's new leftist government met with a positive initial response from financial markets on Sunday with banks describing the plans to keep a lid on spending as credible and helpful to investor sentiment.

Mexico's peso rose against the dollar in Asian trading after Finance Minister Carlos Urzua unveiled the budget on Saturday evening, pledging to find more money for both the elderly and unemployed youngsters by slimming down several government ministries, and in expectation of higher tax revenues.

He also vowed to run a larger budget surplus, excluding interest payments on debt, than Mexico did last year.

The budget is a major test of President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador's economic credibility, which was shaken when he said on October 29 he was scrapping a partly-built $13 billion new Mexico City airport on the basis of a referendum that was widely panned as illegitimate. Rating agency Fitch warned it could downgrade the country's creditworthiness after the decision.

Lopez Obrador took office on December 1, and much of the new spending covers pledges made during the election campaign.

Still, analysts at Citi said the spending promises were below consensus forecasts, calling the budget a "positive surprise" for the market.

"Rating agencies will be kept at bay for at least the next six months or so, as it would take meaningful slippage versus the plan to trigger downgrades," they said in a research note. 

Mexican bank Banorte echoed the sentiment, predicting markets would respond well on Monday.

The peso strengthened by 0.8 per cent against the dollar in early Asian trading.

Raul Feliz, an economist at the CIDE think tank in Mexico City said markets could take heart from the fact that "there's no really crazy stuff" in the budget.

Due to be approved by Congress before the end of the year, the plan forecasts a slight slowdown in economic growth to about 2 per cent next year from an estimated 2.3 per cent in 2018.

The package also targets a 2019 primary budget surplus — a figure which strips out payments on existing debts — of 1 per cent of gross domestic product. That compares with a 0.7 per cent primary surplus estimated for 2018.

Still, markets are likely to monitor the progress of the budget closely to see if Urzua can meet his targets and how he reacts if his revenue projections prove unrealistic.

Some analysts expressed the view that the budget's forecasts for economic growth, oil output and the exchange rate looked optimistic. 

Others said Urzua was underestimating a hit to revenues from a proposal to halve value-added tax  in Mexico's northern border region. 

Bond balancing act 

Investors soured on Lopez Obrador following his announcement cancelling the airport, dumping Mexican bonds, stocks and the peso. He argued the project was too costly and tainted by corruption, though he has not produced evidence to support this.

Since then, the government has been trying to craft a deal with the holders of bonds that were issued to finance the airport. Although the two sides have been moving closer, the dispute remains a factor of uncertainty, said the CIDE's Feliz.

On Sunday, Mexico declined to further sweeten an offer to buy back almost a third of the airport bonds. 

Markets are also keeping tabs on the financial health of heavily-indebted state oil firm Petroleos Mexicanos, or Pemex, which Lopez Obrador has pledged to revive.

BERLIN — Germany plans to toughen rules on non-EU share purchases and acquisitions of its strategic companies, a report said on Sunday, amid growing disquiet about takeovers by Chinese firms.

Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Cabinet plans to approve the law change on Wednesday and send it to parliament, the Handelsblatt business daily said, without citing its sources.

The update of the Foreign Trade Regulation would allow the German government to review or bloc foreign purchases of stakes as low as 10 per cent in such companies, down from 25 per cent now.

The rule would apply to “security relevant” companies that are crucial to Germany’s defence or “critical infrastructure”, including many high-tech and power companies but also large food producers.

Germany and other European Union member states have voiced growing concern in recent years as Chinese companies have bought up, or purchased controlling stakes in, airports, harbours and high-tech firms.

Chinese appliance giant Midea in mid-2016 took over German industrial robotics supplier Kuka, sparking alarm in Germany about valuable knowhow being transferred abroad.

In mid-2017, Germany tightened scrutiny on non-EU takeovers of strategic companies, allowing more time for reviews and including a wider range of sectors.

In February this year, Germany raised no objections when Chinese billionaire Li Shufu bought a near 10 per cent stake in the Mercedes-Benz parent company Daimler.

However in July, the German government took a minority stake in electricity transmission firm 50Hertz, citing national security reasons, thwarting Chinese investors from buying into the company.

“On national security grounds, the federal government has a major interest in protecting critical energy infrastructure,” the finance and economy ministries said in a joint statement at the time.

During a visit to Germany in July, Chinese Prime Minister Li Keqiang urged Berlin to grant Chinese companies the access that German firms enjoy in China.

“Our investments do not threaten your national security,” he said. “Through joint projects, we want to learn from your experiences and technologies.”

RIYADH — Western tourists, a rarity in Saudi Arabia, visited this weekend under a new visa system, as one of the world’s most inaccessible countries tries to open up its society and diversify its economy away from oil.

Thousands of fans flocked to Riyadh’s historic Diriyah district for Formula E, a motor sports tournament using electric vehicles, and concerts by David Guetta and Black Eyed Peas, among other.

Most were Saudis still unaccustomed to such entertainment in their own country, where cinemas and public concerts were banned until changes by Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman in the past two years.

Despite an international outcry over the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi and the Saudi-led war in Yemen, some Westerners also seized the opportunity to visit a country that still largely restricts foreigners to resident workers and their dependents, business visitors and Muslim pilgrims.

An American named Jason is spending a week here with his German wife, riding quad bikes in the desert and visiting heritage sites in Ushaiger, 200km northwest of the capital.

“The race sounds interesting, but to be honest it was a means to see the country. We’re happy to be here,” he said. “I’ve always wanted to come for many, many years... I’m so happy to be here and that they’re letting us be here.”

Aaron, a 40-year-old software engineer, travelled from New York for two days. He and a few dozen other adventure travellers seeking to visit every country in the world checked the desert kingdom off their list this weekend.

“Saudi Arabia’s always been an exotic place... and I didn’t think I’d ever be able to come here,” he said as circus performers entertained guests in between races.

Some 1,000 foreigners from 80 countries received the new “sharek” visa, which is linked to a specific entertainment event, the authorities said.

That is a fraction of what they eventually hope to attract.

“Hopefully we will learn from this and see what we need to do for the future, but I can tell you from now that there is a lot of demand...” said Prince Abdulaziz Bin Turki Al Faisal, vice chairman of the General Sports Authority.

Tourism targets 

Whizzing electric racecars wound through the ruins of Diriyah, the capital of the first Saudi state built by the ruling Al Saud family three centuries ago.

The UNESCO world heritage site is undergoing a multimillion-dollar renovation, celebrating a telling of national history that puts the dynasty and its clerical allies front and centre.

Plans to admit significant numbers of tourists from abroad have been discussed for years, only to be blocked by conservative opinion and bureaucracy.

Now the crown prince is seeking to develop new industries to wean the world’s top oil exporter off petro-dollars.

Tourism is high on the agenda, despite a shortage of infrastructure. Reforms aim to lift total spending — by locals and foreigners — to $46.6 billion in 2020 from $27.9 billion in 2015.

James, another American tourist, said the visit corrected some of his preconceived notions, but he bristled at the idea that visiting a country implied endorsing its government.

“Just forget the politics and you can relate to people all over the world,” he said. “That applies to Saudi Arabia, too.”

MILAN — Fiat Chrysler (FCA) could review its 5 billion euro ($5.7 billion) Italian investment plan, which includes a shift to cleaner engines, if Rome raises taxes on petrol and diesel cars.

"Were these measures to be confirmed as of 2019, a thorough examination of their impact and an update to plans already announced would be necessary," FCA's Europe head, Pietro Gorlier, said in a letter to government representatives in the northern Piedmont region, where some of the new investment would be targeted. 

In an amendment to the 2019 budget law passed in Italy's lower house last week, the government approved subsidies of up to 6,000 euros for lower emission vehicles, but included a surcharge of up to 3,000 euros on petrol and diesel cars. 

However, the government immediately vowed to change it in the Senate, where it will be voted on next, after one of the ruling parties contested the measure.

Italy's ruling parties — the anti-establishment 5-Star Movement and the right-wing League — have been at odds over the issue, with the latter opposing any new taxes on cars, while the pro-environment 5-Star has encouraged the new rules.

Unions and auto sector associations have also warned about the proposed new tax, saying it would hurt not only the carmakers but also the entire supply chain and could cost jobs.

FCA said last month it plans to spend more than 5 billion euros on new models and cleaner engines in Italy over the next three years to boost jobs and profitability.

5-Star leader Luigi Di Maio has since said the government would seek to improve the measures to not harm families in difficulties and to not create a shock to the Italian economy.

"We will find a solution... without damaging or causing a shock to companies' industrial plans," Di Maio said when asked about Gorlier's letter.

Possible changes to the amendment could result in the exclusion of smaller-engine vehicles from the proposed tax, government officials have said.

"The sector scenario has been significantly modified by interventions in the car market under discussion in the budget law, which in our opinion alter the whole framework within which we outlined our plan for Italy," FCA's Gorlier said.

"At the moment we do not yet have visibility on what the regulatory scenario will be in the coming years," he added. 

GENEVA — The International Air Transport Association (IATA) forecasts the global airline industry net profit to be $35.5 billion in 2019, slightly higher than the $32.3 billion net profit expected this year.

During its “Global Media Day”, this week, IATA also indicated that Middle Eastern carriers, “in recovery mode”, are expected to report an $800 million net profit in 2019, up from $600 million in 2018, while the expected net profit per passenger is $3.33.

The region has been challenged by the “earlier impact of low oil revenues, conflict, competition from other ‘super-connectors’ and setbacks to particular business models”, and that led to a clear slowdown in capacity growth, which was recorded at 4.7 per cent in 2018, according to IATA.

In 2019, the industry as a whole is forecast to stabilise its profitability, the association’s chief economist, Brian Pearce, said.

However, there will be a “continued wide divergence of performance between regions”, he noted.

Some features of the global economic outlook, as presented by Pearce, are Uncertainty and volatility in politics and financial markets, protectionism and the US imposition of trade tariffs on China and the “damaging” uncertainty wreaked by Brexit.

 This goes hand in hand with “considerable” momentum to travel growth and lower jet fuel prices, which will “enable the airline industry to stabilise profitability” in the coming year and reach an average return on capital of 8.6 per cent, he said.

According to IATA Director General and CEO Alexandre de Juniac, “airlines have been in the black since 2010, and since 2015, we have been generating returns in excess of our costs of capital”. 

“That [means]… that airlines are finally making a normal profit”, he said, describing aviation as “the business of freedom”.

 “Aviation’s activity liberates people to explore, develop, trade, learn, find business opportunities and… essentially to live better lives.”

As for envisaged contributions to governments, airlines are expected to contribute $136 billion to government coffers in tax revenues in 2019, a 5.8 per cent increase over 2018.

Aviation contributes to increasing global connectivity, and this comes with benefits, according to IATA. 

Key indicators of these advantages include:The 2019 average return airfare, before surcharges and tax, is expected to be $324, which is 6.1 per cent below 1998 levels, after adjusting for inflation.

Average airfreight rates next year are expected to be $1.86/kg, a 62 per cent decline compared to the 1998 levels.

The number of unique city pairs served by airlines is forecast to grow to 21,332 in 2018, up by 1,300 over 2017, and more than double the 1998 levels.

Global spending by consumers and businesses on air transport is expected to reach $919 billion in 2019, up 7.6 per cent over 2018 and equivalent to 1 per cent of global gross domestic product (GDP).

Aviation, IATA says, is economically “an enabler of the global economy, supporting nearly 66 million jobs and underpinning 3.6 per cent of global GDP with an economic impact of $2.7 trillion annually”.

As de Juniac says, “air travel has never been such a good deal for consumers. Not only are fares staying low, the options for travellers are expanding.”