For Washington to avoid ‘loss of face’

Washington’s myopic right-wing politicians continue to fulminate against the nuclear deal signed by Iran, the US, the UK, France Russia, China and Germany, attacking President Barack Obama and ignoring the other signatories.

This kind of behaviour is typical of US Republicans and their allies whose vision is confined to the US capital and its surroundings, the “Beltway”.

They simply do not understand that the moment to object has passed and they should try to make the best of the deal that reduces Iran’s stocks of enriched uranium and numbers of centrifuges that produce it, and places the country’s entire nuclear programme under a tight regime of inspection by the International Atomic Energy Agency.

By continuing their campaign to defeat the deal in Congress, the naysayers are delaying benefits to US and other businessmen and firms able to exploit lucrative commercial opportunities opened up by the lifting of sanctions on Iran.

Instead of trying to do down the deal, European politicians have flocked to Tehran with the aim of normalising relations and engaging with Iran after more than three decades of ostracising and sanctioning the country.

Last weekend, British Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond reopened his country’s embassy and met with President Hassan Rouhani, moves that herald political reconciliation.

Hammond was accompanied by British businessmen bent on competing for contracts, particularly in oil exploration and to upgrade Iran’s deteriorated oil fields.

The first senior Western politician to fly to Tehran was German Economy Minister Sigmar Gabriel whose plane was also packed with businessmen eager to scout commercial opportunities in a country of 80 million.

As far as Germany is concerned, this trip amounted to a declaration that Iran is open for business.

Just in case the message has not been taken in by all those involved in the business of lifting sanctions, German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeir plans to travel to Tehran in October.

The German-Iranian Chamber of Commerce has been sending weekly plane loads of businessmen to Tehran.

While in Tehran, French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius invited Rouhani to France in November for a meeting with President Francois Hollande.

French companies, including Airbus and carmakers Peugeot Citroen and Renault, are determined to renew connections with local producers disrupted by sanctions.

Italian Foreign Minister Paolo Gentiloni also turned up in Tehran with an entourage of businessmen, some of whom already signed memoranda of understanding with Iranian entities.

For example, Italy’s Mediobanca agreed to finance deals between Italian and Iranian firms. These loans would be guaranteed by Italy’s public export credit company, which has estimated that post-sanctions Italian exports to Iran could increase by $3.3 billion by the end of 2018.

And Italy’s Fata engineering firm has secured a $543 million contract with Iran’s Ghadir Investment Company to build a power plant.

Claudio Descalzi, chief executive of Italy’s Eni oil multinational, said his company will purchase oil from Iran once sanctions are lifted.

Spain, Sweden and Poland plan to send ministerial missions in the fall, while Austrian President Heinz Fischer is set to become the first European head of state to travel to Tehran since the signing of the agreement on July 14th in Vienna.

All these countries, plus signatories of the deal Russia and China, want to see it implemented as soon as possible.

Anticipating that the deal will go through in spite of Washington’s spoilers, Switzerland already lifted key sanctions on Iran on August 13th, including a ban on the purchase and sale of precious metals to entities connected with the Iranian government, and the requirement to report to trade in Iranian petrochemicals to sanctions-enforcing bodies.

Meanwhile, Israel’s right-wing government led by Benjamin Netanyahu and his allies in the Republican and Democratic parties in the US are pulling out all the stops to defeat the nuclear deal in Congress by trying to marshal two-thirds majorities in both Houses.

This is annoying Europeans in particular. They see that the spoilers — who are unlikely to succeed — are simply postponing the lifting of sanctions.

That such an important non-proliferation agreement should be torpedoed by Israel, the region’s only nuclear weapons state, is seen as irresponsible.

Ensuring that Iran is not on the threshold of building a weapon and is at least a year away from “break-out” — doing just this — is a great achievement for the international community.

Israel’s rejectionism and the recent revelation by former prime minister Ehud Barak that Israel had prepared to attack Iran on several occasions demonstrates, once again, that Israel is a dangerous loose cannon.

While in Tehran, Hammond said that sanctions could be lifted next spring if the deal is endorsed by Congress in October and Iran meets its commitments.

For Iranians eager to see economic revival and progress after decades of suffering at the popular level, for officials eager to strengthen the economy and for European businessmen, spring is late.

Optimists hold that $100-$150 billion in Iranian deposits frozen in foreign banks could be released earlier and deals concluded as soon as the money becomes available.

It is clear that if US spoilers either defeat the Obama administration or delay implementation of the deal, European and Asian governments could break faith with the US over sanctions, eroding and ultimately eliminating the punitive regime.

This could involve “violating” financial and oil sanctions that the US Treasury is in a strong position to enforce by imposing swinging fines on companies doing business in the US and abroad.

This, of course, would stir up a great deal of resentment among US allies and prompt governments and companies to seek new and innovative ways to get round sanctions and defy US enforcers.

This would mean, of course, a considerable loss of leverage and “face” for Washington.