Scenarios for the day after Gaza ceasefire

With the end of military operations and the start of the ceasefire in Gaza, multiple possibilities open up for the day after, ranging from hope and stability on the one hand, to continued escalation or chaos on the other. The ceasefire provides an opportunity for the region to breathe and restore daily life, but at the same time it puts the parties before a real test of their ability to adhere to the terms of the agreement and achieve actual progress in addressing the effects of the destruction. This moment may turn into a turning point towards reconstruction and improving living conditions, or it may slide into a new cycle of tension and conflict if the necessary political will is not available to consolidate the truce and achieve sustainable progress.

In the first scenario, the ceasefire may lead to a state of relative stability that allows reconstruction efforts to begin. Through coordination between international bodies such as the United Nations and donor countries, humanitarian assistance can be provided and damaged infrastructure can be rebuilt, including homes, schools and hospitals. However, the realization of this scenario depends largely on the commitment of all parties to the terms of the truce, the existence of strong international support to ensure its continuity, and effective cooperation between local authorities and international institutions. However, these efforts may face significant challenges, such as the lack of trust between the parties and the possibility of local tensions arising from the poor distribution of aid, in addition to political pressures that may be exerted by regional parties to disrupt stability.

Chances of the realization of the first scenario: The chances of realizing this scenario depend on a number of positive factors that could push things towards stability. The commitment of local parties to the terms of the truce constitutes the cornerstone of this framework, as commitment will provide an appropriate environment for international actors to move effectively. Strong international support, whether in terms of funding or security guarantees, enhances the chances of continuing reconstruction efforts. Effective cooperation between local authorities and international institutions, including providing transparent and fair mechanisms for distributing aid, can contribute significantly to achieving the desired results.

However, existing challenges reduce the chances of this scenario’s full success. The lack of trust between the various parties, whether between Palestinian factions or between Palestinians and Israelis, represents a major obstacle to progress. Political pressure from some regional parties that may see stability as a threat to their interests may hinder international and local efforts. In addition, poor distribution of aid may lead to social tensions that further complicate the situation.

Based on these factors, it can be said that the chances of the first scenario being realized are medium. While international and local will provide a real opportunity to bring about positive change, the obstacles to implementation need to be addressed decisively to ensure the success of the efforts and restore normalcy in Gaza.

As for the second scenario, it is embodied in a gradual return to escalation shortly after the ceasefire. This may result from repeated violations of the ceasefire or from the absence of effective monitoring mechanisms to ensure its adherence. The continuation of the blockade and the failure to improve living conditions may push the population into further frustration and anger, increasing the chances of escalation. At the same time, internal disputes between Palestinian factions regarding the management of the stage may contribute to destabilization. Despite potential international efforts to limit this scenario, the risk of a return to escalation remains unless serious steps are taken to address the root causes of the conflict.

The conditions for this scenario to materialize are related to a number of factors that increase the likelihood of a gradual return to escalation. First, continued violations of the ceasefire by both Israeli forces and Palestinian factions will undermine efforts to maintain the truce. Second, the absence of effective international monitoring mechanisms to ensure compliance with the terms of the truce makes the likelihood of escalation highly likely. Third, the continuation of the blockade imposed on Gaza without any significant relief, along with the deterioration of the living conditions of the population, creates a state of general frustration and anger that may lead to a new escalation.

In addition, internal disputes between Palestinian factions over the management of the transitional phase are a significant factor in destabilizing the situation.

The chances of this scenario being realized are relatively high if serious steps are not taken to address the root causes of the conflict. The absence of tangible improvements on the ground increases the likelihood of the situation exploding again, especially if the various parties continue to view the ceasefire as a temporary measure without committing to sustainable solutions. However, some international efforts may contribute to postponing the escalation for a limited period, but they will not be sufficient to ensure the continuity of the truce in the long term without addressing the underlying problems.

The third scenario, which is the least likely but most optimistic, is related to the occurrence of internal Palestinian reconciliation leading to a political breakthrough. The ceasefire could constitute a golden opportunity for the Palestinian factions to achieve national reconciliation, leading to the formation of a national unity government that will assume responsibility for reconstruction and negotiate with international parties. The success of this scenario requires real political will from all parties, along with regional and international support that provides the necessary guarantees and enhances trust between the factions. Despite the optimism that this proposal may carry, it faces major challenges such as foreign interventions aimed at maintaining the division, the lack of trust between Palestinian factions, and the difficulty of overcoming thorny issues such as the management of crossings and security.

The realization of this scenario is linked to a strong political will from all Palestinian factions, as agreement on a unified vision is one of the most important requirements for achieving national reconciliation. There must be positive pressures and support from influential regional countries, in addition to international guarantees that encourage the parties to move forward towards forming a national unity government. Success also requires activating channels of dialogue between the factions, in addition to making mutual concessions on thorny issues such as the management of crossings and security, which enhances trust and creates an environment that supports stability.

As for the chances of achieving this scenario, they remain low due to the major challenges facing reconciliation. Foreign interventions aimed at perpetuating the division, and the lack of trust between the factions as a result of the accumulation of internal conflicts, make reaching permanent solutions difficult. However, the presence of a supportive international and regional will may constitute a glimmer of hope in overcoming these challenges. If this scenario materializes, it would be a pivotal step toward long-term stability and improved political and social conditions in Gaza.

Ultimately, the shape of the next day in Gaza depends on the ability of local and international parties to overcome current obstacles and exploit available opportunities. To ensure that positive scenarios are realized, the international community must provide strict monitoring of the implementation of the ceasefire and provide rapid and effective support for reconstruction. Strengthening dialogue between Palestinian factions is also essential to achieving national unity and ending the suffering of the population who pay the price of the conflict every time it is renewed. Hope exists, but achieving it requires continuous efforts and sincere will from all parties.