The cost of expanding war regionally, internationally

The Middle East is witnessing a continuous escalation in conflicts and tensions, as there is increasing talk about the possibility of expanding the scope of the war by Israel, whether by expanding the scope of its military operations against armed factions or by targeting other regional countries. Such a scenario, if realised, will carry heavy costs at the regional and international levels, ranging from human, economic and political losses, in addition to long-term effects on the global system.

Regionally, the expansion of the war will certainly mean involving a number of neighbouring countries in the conflict. Lebanon and Syria are the most vulnerable to being directly affected due to the influence of Hizbollah, supported by Iran and the armed groups operating in Syria. If Israel decides to expand its military operations to include targeting the bases of these factions, this could lead to a comprehensive regional war that would drag in other powers such as Iran and Iraq, in addition to the Palestinian factions.

This type of escalation will have serious repercussions on the stability of the entire region, as Iran is expected to respond, either through its proxies in the region or directly. This could lead to the opening of new fronts on the Israeli-Lebanese or Syrian borders, increasing the possibility of a prolonged war involving the use of ballistic missiles and drones, which could reach major cities in Israel.

This escalation will also force Israel’s neighbours to strengthen their armies and update their military equipment, increasing the burden of military spending in the region at the expense of investments in other vital sectors such as education, health and infrastructure. The situation will worsen if these countries are forced to receive new waves of refugees fleeing the conflict, which will put additional pressure on their limited resources.

The expansion of the war will have disastrous economic effects on the region and the world, as the Middle East accounts for 30 per cent of global oil production and 17 per cent of natural gas. Any unrest could raise energy prices by up to 20 per cent, increasing transportation and production costs globally.

The expansion of the war will lead to an economic contraction in Israel of 1.5 per cent to 3 per cent annually, especially in the technology sectors (which account for 10 per cent of GDP) and tourism (4 per cent). Foreign investment could fall by 25 per cent, as security tensions increase. The health system will be affected by the increase in infections, and infrastructure and transportation will suffer significant losses. Unemployment could rise by 10 per cent as businesses close. Defence costs could increase by 15 per cent and human losses will increase. Agriculture and water will also be affected, affecting food production. Neighbouring countries, such as Jordan, Lebanon and Egypt, which depend on tourism and trade, could see a decline in tourism revenues of up to 30 per cent and trade losses of up to $5 billion annually due to the disruption of supply chains. Unemployment could rise by 10 per cent in some of these countries, further exacerbating the economic crises.

Internationally, the repercussions are no less serious, as major powers such as the United States, Russia and China may be forced to intervene to support their interests. A 20 per cent to 30 per cent increase in oil prices would increase global production and transportation costs, leading to inflation and higher commodity prices. 

Disruption of trade in sea lanes such as the Suez Canal, through which 12 per cent of global trade and 10 per cent of oil pass, could cause losses of between $6 and $10 billion per day.

In addition, threatening strategic pipelines could reduce energy supplies by 5 per cent to 10 per cent, complicating the global energy crisis. On the political front, military tensions would lead to an escalation in relations between major powers such as the United States, Russia and China, especially in light of the current divisions over how to deal with Iran and Israel, which increases the likelihood of escalating geopolitical tensions and a decline in diplomatic efforts to resolve crises.

This scenario would further deepen political divisions between major powers, which could lead to the failure of international efforts to resolve conflicts in the Middle East, and enhance the return of unilateral policies that threaten the international system based on multilateral cooperation.

On the humanitarian front, the greatest cost would be the thousands of civilian casualties, whether among the Palestinians or in other countries that may be involved in the conflict. Military escalation will lead to widespread destruction of infrastructure, severe shortages of food and medicine, and will force thousands of families to flee conflict zones, exacerbating existing humanitarian crises.

Finally, Israel’s regional and international expansion of the war will result in huge costs on the economic, political and humanitarian levels. At a time when calls for calm and a return to negotiations are increasing, continued escalation will further complicate the situation and push the region toward even darker scenarios. Therefore, the current situation requires urgent diplomatic efforts to avoid disaster and prevent the expansion of the circle of war, which will not be in anyone’s interest.

Hasan Dajah is professor of strategic studies at Al Hussein Bin Talal University