Rising tensions in Syria: Is foreign intervention now inevitable?

In recent days, Syria has once again emerged as a focal point of the regional crisis. This time, however, the spotlight is not on Israeli statements or actions but rather on the eruption of dangerous ethno-religious clashes that threaten to ignite a broader conflict. These developments make foreign intervention in Syria increasingly inevitable, particularly as Israel reinforces its narrative of protecting the Druze, while the United States strengthens its position under the pretext of safeguarding the Kurds. As a result, the prospect of Syria being divided into spheres of influence is becoming more tangible than ever.

Yet, the real danger does not lie solely in the potential partition of Syria but in the ensuing chaos that accompanies it. Such disorder provides fertile ground for the resurgence of terrorism and organized crime, both of which have never truly disappeared from the Syrian landscape. Reports indicate an alarming surge in criminal activities, including arms and drug trafficking as well as money laundering. This serves the interests of various factions controlling different territories, incentivizing them to perpetuate instability and ensure their own dominance.

Simultaneously, Daesh is reasserting its presence in Syria, expanding its operations in the Palmyra region and the surrounding desert areas. This resurgence points to the group’s enhanced military and logistical capabilities, reflecting a shift in strategy aimed at consolidating control over specific regions and isolating them from the rest of Syria. At the same time, Daesh is launching repeated attacks on key transportation and energy routes, exacerbating instability. Controlling these areas also grants the group influence over smuggling networks between Iraq, Syria, and Jordan, further solidifying its role in the illicit arms and drug trade.

These developments pose serious security threats to Jordan, as Syria’s immediate neighbor. As terrorist and criminal networks expand, Jordan faces an increase in smuggling attempts, alongside a shift in the nature of the threats, particularly regarding the types of weapons being trafficked and the likelihood of direct confrontations along its borders. This evolving reality demands a reassessment of Jordan’s security strategy to effectively counter the growing risks emanating from Syria’s instability. 

At the regional level, the crisis extends beyond Syria, reaching Iran. U.S. President Donald Trump’s remarks about the need for Iran to return to negotiations, or face the prospect of military action, suggest that Israel may view this as an opportunity to escalate conflicts on pending fronts with direct American backing. The most critical theatres in this regard are Yemen and Iran, where Israel seeks to capitalise on shifting dynamics to strengthen its strategic positioning, particularly after securing its immediate geographic surroundings in Syria, Lebanon, Gaza, and the West Bank.

In this increasingly volatile environment, Israel’s goal of securing its immediate geographical sphere is pushing it to expand its operational focus to more distant fronts, with Iran being the primary target. However, some regional actors recognize that the most effective way to disrupt Israel’s ability to engage freely on distant battlefields is by reigniting tensions closer to home. This raises the likelihood of renewed escalations in Syria, Lebanon, and the West Bank, as certain factions may seek to force Israel into dealing with immediate threats, thereby preventing it from fully shifting its attention to broader regional confrontations.

Amid this unfolding regional escalation and the risk of multi-front conflicts, Jordan faces an unprecedented security landscape. Whether in response to Israeli actions in the West Bank or emerging threats from Syria, Jordan is now at a crossroads that requires a proactive and adaptive national security approach. Embracing a new strategic mindset will be crucial for Jordan to navigate the coming challenges, whether they stem from terrorism, organized crime, or shifting political dynamics in the region.