Region’s barometer

Today, the greatest political challenges for Jordan come from two different fronts: On one side, the inevitable consequences of the Syrian issue, on the other, the possible escalation of the problems in the West Bank. Both have the potential to negatively affect Jordan.

Despite huge pressure, Jordan has shown incomparable skills in the management of the Syrian crisis. However, Jordan will have to consolidate and protect its position in dealing with the consequences of that crisis in the future.

It could do that by adopting a new strategy that aims to strengthen state institutions and prevent any internal disputes.

Moreover, Jordan should try to keep its lines open with all parties to the conflict. Under such conditions, strategic interests necessitate that Jordan play a key role in any scenario.

The other risk could be posed by chaos in the West Bank (a third Intifada) due to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s hostile politics and the weakness of the Palestinian leadership.

Nevertheless, there is still the possibility of a surprise withdrawal of the Israelis from the West Bank, which is not a new Israeli move; it took it in Gaza, which led to its separation from the West Bank. In the West Bank, that might precipitate serious disorders.

Therefore, any Israeli solution to the Palestinian crisis will almost certainly include Jordan, as a natural extension of the conflict. Thus, Jordan will yet again have to play a central role in finding a solution to the Palestinian issue.

Jordan should be the birthplace of a reconciliation process and of any new Palestinian settlement.

Today, surrounded by horrific conflicts and instability, the capacity to collect winning cards is Jordan’s biggest challenge. 

Any shift in Jordan’s role in the area forecasts regional changes. However, a role in the Syrian crisis might also provide Jordan with stronger bargaining tools that will strengthen its position. Accordingly, Jordan might be in a good position to act as a channel of dialogue for the Gulf countries on the Syrian and Yemeni crises.

In order to achieve that, Jordan might need to adopt a new approach to the Gulf, both as a single entity and as individual countries, each requiring its own specific strategy. This way, Jordan could start to gain a strong deck of cards at regional and international levels.

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