Gaza: The price of destroying the resistance

The coming few hours will determine the fate of an Egyptian initiative to implement a ceasefire between Israel, which has accepted the deal, and Palestinian resistance groups in Gaza. Hamas has said it is studying the offer, but wants guarantees that the blockade on the strip will be lifted. Israel, on the other hand, said the ceasefire will be followed by steps to dismantle Hamas’ rocket capabilities and make Gaza a demilitarised area. The gap between the two sides remains wide more than a week after Israel launched a vicious aerial campaign against Gaza.

Like all of Israel’s brutal assaults on the besieged Gaza Strip, Palestinian civilians end up paying the ultimate price. In 2008, when Israel launched “Operation Cast Lead” more than 1,400 Palestinians perished in the three-week incursion, the majority were civilians including children, women and elderly. And when Israel struck the strip again in November 2012, more than 130 Palestinians were killed — again mostly civilians — in the eight-day assault. In both cases Hamas and other resistance movements responded by firing rockets on southern Israeli towns and settlements. Hostilities ended when intermediaries succeeded in forging a truce, which usually benefited the Israeli side.

Gaza has always been in the centre of the Palestinian-Israel conflict. It is the birthplace of the first Intifada, (uprising) in 1988, which led to the emergence of Hamas, an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood. It is home to about 2 million Palestinians, mostly refugees and displaced persons; the victims of successive Israeli wars against the Palestinians. It is one of the most crowded places on Earth, with meagre natural resources and poor public services.

Since Israel’s unilateral withdrawal from Gaza in 2005, the strip has been under siege from land, sea and air. And since then Israel has been targeting so-called “militants” in an attempt to undermine the infrastructure of resistance movements. The situation became worse when Hamas expelled Fateh leaders from Gaza in 2007 and displaced the government of the Palestinian Authority (PA).

The current onslaught on Gaza by Israel may be different from previous attacks. The assault was initiated by Israel after the kidnapping and killing of three Israeli youths near Hebron three weeks ago. Israel accused Hamas but provided no physical evidence. Parallel to a wide security operation in the West Bank, during which Israel rounded up more than 700 Palestinians associated with Hamas, including those who were released under the Shalit deal, the Israelis launched a vicious air campaign against hundreds of targets in Gaza.

This time the Palestinian response was qualitatively different. Hamas, Islamic Jihad and others fired hundreds of rockets, mostly locally made, against various targets in Israel. Unexpectedly, upgraded missiles with a longer range rained on Jerusalem, Tel Aviv and Haifa, among other locations. Some were intercepted by Israel’s Iron Dome anti-missile system. But the psychological effect of these crude rockets was enormous. The Israeli response was ruthless; firing missiles on homes, mosques, hospitals and public buildings resulting in civilian deaths. Still, and by the end of the first week, with more than 30 children killed, the Palestinian capacity to fire rockets on Israel was unaffected. Israel warned of a land incursion, but its objectives were unclear. Was Israel about to re-occupy the strip, or was it only looking for a brief intrusion?

Hamas said that any cessation to hostilities must guarantee the lifting of the blockade and the release of Palestinian prisoners. Spokespersons for the military arm of the movement said they were ready for a ground battle and that they had more surprises awaiting the Israelis. They called on Egypt to intervene again and open the Rafah border crossing.

Israel says the objective of operation “Protective Edge” is to dismantle the capacity of fighters to launch rockets against Israel. But previous operations had failed to achieve the same goal. Why would this time be any different? If Israel, where more than 2 million of its citizens are constantly scurrying to find shelter every time warning sirens are sounded, gives up now, it will be a terrible blow to Netanyahu. And if it decides to wage a land incursion it risks suffering casualties and getting sucked into the Gazan quagmire.

On the other hand, Hamas says it cannot go back to the November 2012 truce agreement, which was mediated by former Egyptian president Mohamed Morsi. Since then, it has incurred heavy political losses following the overthrow of Morsi and the crisis in Syria which forced it to part ways with its Damascus and Tehran allies. It had to succumb to pressure to conclude Palestinian reconciliation under which President Mahmoud Abbas had the upper hand. Ending the Gaza blockade has become a matter of life and death, not only to millions of Gazans, but to the resistance groups as well.

This is why this latest conflict is different. Both parties want something that is difficult to attain. Ironically, both Israel and Hamas are under tremendous pressure and are wary of the next step. But there is another potential loser; Abbas, whose search for a political solution had suffered when Netanyahu rebuffed him, will find himself even more isolated and weak if the Palestinian resistance is destroyed. And if Israel succeeds in defeating Hamas, what would stop Israel from relocating him, and his PA, to Gaza where far-right Israeli politicians say the future Palestinian state should be established?

The price of destroying the resistance will be high and will be paid by all Palestinians. Even if the current truce holds the root causes of the conflict will continue to challenge all.

The writer is a journalist and political commentator based in Amman.