Of self-determination

Russia’s kneejerk reaction to the change of guard in Kiev is to be expected. Ukraine sits in the backyard of the Russian Federation and dramatic changes in geopolitical order around its vast territory are too close for comfort.

Moscow has seen Western encroachment on Russia’s previous spheres of influence in Eastern Europe, with most of the former communist nations falling into the Western camp one after the other after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Despite its vast territory, extending from Eastern Europe to the Far East Asia, Russia never felt secure.

It always had some “inferiority” complex. Russians have always felt vulnerable and insecure. This makes Russia wish to protect itself and rather aggressive in protecting its strategic interests.

Russian President Vladimir Putin once remarked that the dissolution of the former Soviet Union was the biggest historical blunder ever committed. Seeing big chunks of the territories of the former USSR drifting away from the motherland Russia, Putin must have felt that there is a Western conspiracy to cut Russia to a smaller size in order to weaken it and bring it to its knees.

No wonder Putin overreacted to the change of leadership in neighbouring Ukraine and the rise of pro-European Union regimes to power.

Moscow, or rather its president, advanced all sorts of explanations and excuses for Russia’s military intervention in Crimea and its hostility towards Kiev, but what stands out was its claim that its moves were intended to protect the lives of the minority Russian population in Ukraine and the majority Russian population in Crimea.

Protecting them from what has yet to be spelled out.

I was wondering for a while why Putin did not play the card of the right of the Russian people to self-determination, not only in Crimea, where they are a clear majority, but also in the eastern regions of Ukraine, where they constitute a sizeable portion of the population.

But the right to self-determination is a two-edged sword for Moscow, and resorting to it would be fraught with dangers to Russia.

To invoke it, Russia must be prepared to afford this basic human right to the scores of ethnic and national minorities living on its territory.

Putin does not want to open up this Pandora’s Box lest it should affect the stability of his nation.

The Russian Federation is a multiethnic country with a population of 143 million people. While the Russians belonging to the Orthodox Church constitute the greater majority, there are other sizeable ethnic and religious minorities living in the country.

To employ the self-determination argument would risk having it used by Russia’s, ethnic and religious minorities as well.

Chechnya is at the top of the list of countries that would ask for this right. And this shows why this most persuasive argument in defence of Moscow’s intervention in Ukraine could not be used.

In any case, Russians are well-known for mastering the chess game. No doubt every move made by Putin was carefully calculated to trigger a certain response.

At the end of the game over Ukraine, the world would know which side played its moves better and checkmated the other.