Time for another Arab summit?

Jordan was host to the last Arab summit, at the end of March this year.

Contrary to previous annual leaders’ gatherings, the Amman Summit was well attended, a signal of seriousness in tackling an extraordinary agenda, not for its heavy load, but due to the critical nature of the items included.

The meeting was generally hailed as a successful effort to deal with a number of troubling and destabilising crises.

Realistically, it was not expected to come up with magic solutions for the raging disputes all around. All one would have optimistically expected was for those meeting to reach understandings on how to establish good grounds for checking the deterioration as a good first step, to be followed by not so distant future settlements.

The final statements and the declared decisions of the summit did provide adequate indication in that direction, and they generated some hope.

Unfortunately, though, and probably as in the immediate aftermath of previous summits, the little euphoria was hardly good enough to withstand the continued deterioration in the troubled areas or the eruption of fresh crisis.

The new crisis within the Gulf Cooperation Council, in its third week already and with no signs of abating, is potentially dangerous.

Its sudden detonation and the polarisation of sides render any reasonable compromise difficult to expect.

Worse is that the Gulf crisis is not just one additional problem; much of its latent danger lies in the fact that its dynamics are certain to impact the many other full-force conflicts in Syria, Libya, Yemen and Iraq, in addition, of course, to the explosive situation in Palestine.

The nature of the new Gulf crisis is directly linked to the many operating forces, whether states or groups, in the said countries.

Apparently, Qatar is soon to be served with a fresh set of “grievances” — not demands, as Saudi Foreign Minister Adel Jubeir clarified.

From what has transpired already, they are not that different from the demands reported at the outset of the crisis.

But regardless of what the final list may eventually carry, the terms are not going to be easy for the other side to accept.

Whether there will be room for compromise, a lot of compromise, it is not immediately clear.

The prospects are for an extended crisis. The hope is that it remains within manageable limits, without further escalation.

Seriously concerned about the possible regional consequences of the new dispute, many world leaders offered mediation services. The concerned sides, however, clearly prefer to keep the matter within the Gulf family. 

Hence, the importance of the quick moves of the emir of Kuwait, Sheikh Sabah Al Ahmad Al Sabah, to contain the crisis.

There have been calls from many world capitals for reconciliation, dialogue and quiet diplomacy for resolving contentious issues away from escalatory and punitive measures that can only harden the feelings and widen the gap between Gulf peoples and states. As a result, the dispute seems to be somehow contained, but without signs of progress towards an imminent settlement.

The gap remains wide and the sides remain entrenched.

At the same time, the Arab League has remained silent, not surprisingly since the concerned parties wish to keep their dispute within the Gulf family.

But neither the nature of the conflict nor its probable consequences are likely to affect the Gulf states alone; obviously, they will have a global dimension.

That is why many world capitals rushed to offer good offices, and rightly so.

Being the immediate theatre of perpetual political and military turmoil, the Arab region stands to be most threatened by an enlarged scope of inter-Arab divisions. That requires urgent action at Arab League level to deal with the new crisis despite hurdles.

For some unclear reasons, Arab leaders usually shy away from summits.

When, in 2002, they agreed that there will be at least one summit every year, the decision was hailed as a great achievement.

Since then, though, annual summits became somewhat burdensome, with the attendance of the heads of states falling and capitals asking exemption from taking their turn hosting.

If that signifies anything, it is that Arab states are not, yet, ready to put all their disputes on the table for a meaningful and a serious discussion with the intent to solve problems, not just gloss over and issue ambiguous, non-committal, statements.

As the situation now is reaching a critical and alarming stage, one wonders if it is not the time for a purposeful summit to deal with the most serious Arab order crisis yet; one wonders if the Arab League secretary general should not start moving.

Maybe the chances of success are very poor, but what is wrong with trying?