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Syria won militarily

Sep 05,2017 - Last updated at Sep 05,2017

There is no question that the war in Syria is approaching its end. The certain outcome is a military victory for the Bashar Assad regime that stood its ground, with support from regional and international allies, against all the forces that battled his army for more than six years.

This was an unexpected outcome for many. The general, long-standing, consensus was that this war would never be settled militarily on any side’s favour.

The opposition forces were relentless in their determination to fight to the finish, which was clearly defined as Assad’s removal as a condition for any political settlement of the Syrian crisis.

An undeclared, unholy alliance of world and regional powers, terrorist organisations, mercenaries, extremist groups, religious zealots and outright criminals had descended on the Syrian scene, supported massively with arms and money.

The Arab League, quite imprudently, and in flagrant violation of the rule of its own charter, did not wait long before taking the side of the aggressor against a founding Arab member state, suspending Syria’s membership and banning its participation in its meetings.

Nevertheless, this measure had no effect on the Syrian situation, as it came at a time when the league’s gradual decline in power had reached unprecedented lows.

The United Nations did not follow in the Arab League’s footsteps.

The Arab League and the UN jointly appointed envoys to search for compromises and common ground upon which a political settlement could be forged. And there were precarious gatherings in Geneva, Moscow and Astana.

The resignation of former special UN envoy tasked with seeking a peaceful resolution for the conflict in Syria, veteran Algerian diplomat and long time UN operator Lakhdar Brahimi, who had taken over after the resignation of his predecessor, former UN secretary general Kofi Annan, was followed by the appointment of Staffan de Mistura by the UN Security Council to try to succeed where his predecessors had failed.

He has been on the job since July 2014 and has indeed tried very hard, but alas, also failed to achieve the intended target.

He may have introduced some minor temporary relief dressings, but nothing that would leave any significant visible marks.

Compromises were impossible to reach simply due to the fact that the parties to the conflict in Syria were far too numerous, with conflicting goals and equally numerous agendas.

The many forces fighting against the Syrian government managed to squeeze the regime forces hard at times, making massive military gains all over the country and controlling huge swathes of Syrian territory. This led them to believe that they were close to victory and, therefore, compromise for them was not much of a temptation.

They were also acting upon instructions from their external backers who did not invest in such a risky venture to end up granting the regime a handsome deal, even if within a political settlement.

For his part, Assad believed all long that he was fighting a legitimate war in defence of his country and his people against terrorists and foreign groups acting on behalf of hostile powers targeting his country.

At the beginning of the uprising, in 2011, when demonstrations began in the southern part of Syria and other locations, with people demanding political reform and power sharing, not many believed the Syrian narrative of foreign conspiracy disguised as a national uprising.

However, in hindsight, it seems that Assad was somehow right. Yes, there were genuine national moves at the beginning, but it did not last long before the political vultures, the opportunists, the terrorist organisations, the enemies of reform and the traditional enemies of the Assad regime set sail towards Syria to invest in a war that, as any wise observer would have expected, turned catastrophic.

Those who attribute the Assad regime’s military gains to the substantial support from Russia, Iran and Hizbollah, are right. However, no amount of foreign backing would have helped rescue the deteriorating situation had it not been for the steadfastness of the leadership, administration, institutions and Syrian army, which fought solidly for close to seven years albeit with very modest means and equipment.

Other factors helped, too. The atrocities and the outrageous indiscriminate violence in both Syria and Iraq over the last four years due to the expansion of Daesh, and the control this vicious terrorist organisation has held over large areas in both countries, awakened the world to the fact that the war in Syria was straying off course and entering dangerous zones.

This was further aggravated when Daesh started to organise vicious and deadly terrorist attacks in many European and other world locations.

At this point, many powers came to realise the urgent need to rearrange their priorities in both Iraq and Syria, placing the war on terror as a top priority, even if that meant putting off previous demands for regime change in Syria. 

This turned out to be another decisive factor in Assad’s favour.

To witness the end of the war in Syria is a great regional relief, despite the terrible and massive destruction and tragic loss of life.

Peace in Syria will help the region restore some level of normalcy. It will help Jordan resume trade and hopefully normal friendly relations, as well as enable the refugees to slowly return, which will also help Jordan overcome some of the major resulting economic challenges.

 

Let us hope the good news from Syria will spill over and that similar good news will come out from other Arab areas of conflict.

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Comments

THE WHOLE IDEA OF MY ARTICLES IS TO GENERATE INTELLEGENT, OPEN AND HONEST DEBATE. IF I MAY ASK, WHAT DID JORDAN AND THE REGION GAIN FROM THE DESTRUCTION IRAQ. I WAS THERE AND HOSTED A REFUGEE FAMILY FOR OVER 4 YEARS TO HELP. BEFORE THAT WAR, PETROL DID NOT COST JD5.00 A GALLON, AND THERE WAS TRADE AND COMMERCE BETWEEN THE COUNTRIES. HOW DID THE REGION AND OF COURSE JORDAN BENNEFIT FROM THE CHAOS AND TERROR IN LYBIA TODAY. THE REASON THE PALESTINIAN CONFLICT IS STILL CAUSING ALL KINDS OF PROBLEMS IN THAT REGION IS THE FACT THAT THE ACTORS ARE FOLLOWING THE REMOTE CONTROL OF THEIR MASTERS. IF THE ARAB WORLD WANTS THAT CONFLICT TO END TODAY, IT WILL HAPPEN IN A SPLIT SECOND BUT THEY DECIDE TO PLAY GAMES WITH THE ISSUE OF THIS MAGNITUDE. DO MY FRIENDS WANT WARS WITH OUT END THE IN THAT REGION TODAY. IRRONICALLY, I CAN SEE THE ANGERS OF PEOPLE ABOUT ASSAD'S BRUTALITY AND AUTOCRACY BUT MOST LEADERS IN THAT REGION AND IN FACT ALL OVER THE WORLD ARE GUILTY OF THIS SAME CHARGES. WAR DOES NOT SOLVE ANYTHING EVEN THOUGH IT MIGHT OFFER AN IMMEDIATE RELIEF OF ANGER AND REVENGE. ASSAD NEVER WANTED ANY WAR NOR DID HE START IT. WHAT WILL ANY LEADER IN THAT REGION DO IF PEOPLE WERE TO TAKE TO THE STREET TO CREATE CHAOS, ANARCHY AND BRING THE COUNTRIES TO THEIR KNEES? SILENCE AND ALLOW THE COUNTRY TO EVAPORATE?. IF ANY PERSON CAN SHOW ME ANY PROOF THAT ASSAD IS THE WORST OF THE WORST IN THAT REGION, I WILL ACCEEPT IT BUT HISTORY AND POSTERITY CLEARLY SHOWS HE IS NOT. ONE OF HIS MUCH ADVERTISED CRIME IS THAT HE IS FRIENDLY TO IRAN AND SO MUST BE STOPPED JUST LIKE THE CHICKEN GAME BEING PLAYED NOW IN THE GULF. MY FELLOW CITIZENS AND INLAWS, ITS TIME TO MOVE ON AND SAY NO TO PROXY WARS AND PETRO DOLLAR HAND OUTS. YES ASSAD IS BRUTAL BUT ACTING SO TO DEFEND HIS COUNTRY AND TELL ME ANY LEADER WHO WILL ACT OTHERWISE. THE TALK OF CHEMICAL ATTACKS IS SERIOUS BUT CAN ANY ONE TELL ME FOR SURE THOSE WHO CARRIED OUT THESE BARBARIC ACTS OR ARE THESE THE FINDINGS OF VODOO SCIENCE. BY THE WAY, WHO RECRUTED AND PAID THESE GOOD REBELS? LOOK, I HAVE NEVER BEEN IN SYRIA IN MY LIFE AND WILL NEVER WANT TO GO THERE AND CAN NOT LIVE IN ANY AUTOCRATIC REGIME. BEFORE WE POINT ANY FINGER TO ANY LEADER, WE MUST FIRST EXAMINE OUR OWN DOINGS AND ALL THE DIRTY GAMES BEING PLAYED ALL OVER THE WORLD. HOW MANY WARS DO MY FRIENDS IN THAT REGION WANT TO SEE BEFORE RESPONDING TO CIVILIZATION AND BUILD ECONOMIC FOUNDATION FOR THEIR CHILDREN?. IRRESPECTIVE OF WHAT MY FRIENDS ARE SAYING, THE FACT IS THAT THE LEADERS IN THAT REGION MADE POOR DECESSIONS TO BE IN THE WRONG SIDE OF THAT CONFLICT AS THEY DID IN IRAQ AND SO ON. LOOK AT WHERE THE REGION IS TODAY AND WHERE IT COULD HAVE BEEN IF IT IS NOT FOR PROXY WARS, HAVING MANAGERS INSTEAD OF LEADERS, PROTECTING THE INTEREST OF THEIR MASTERS RATHER THAN THEIR PEOPLES. JORDAN FOR EXAMPLE PRODUCES MORE INTELLECTUAL BRAIN POWERS PER POPULATION DENSITY THAT MOST COUNTRIES IN THE WORLD AND YET REMAINS A COUNTRY THAT RELIES ON FOREIGN HAND OUTS SIMPLY BECAUSE THE ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT AND CAN NOT PERMIT REGIONAL ECONOMIC GROWTH. ENOUGH IS ENOUGH AND ITS TIME TO WORK AS ONE, TALK AS ON AND GROW AS ONE RATHER THAN BEING THE TOOLS OF WARS AFTER WARS. WE HAVE ABLE AND CAPABLE SCIENTISTS THERE AND I DO LIKE THEM TO WEIGH IN ON THE LEVEL OF POLUTIONS AND ITS CONSIQUENCIES GENERATED FROM THE TESTING OF THE MOTHER OF ALL BOMBS IN THAT REGION. THESE LEADERS BREATH THE SAME AIR SO THEIR STOLLEN BILLIONS CAN NOT SHIELD THEM FROM THE TOXINS OF THE SAID CLOUDS OF DEATH AND DESTRUCTIONS. WHEN ALL THESE FOOLISH AND SELFISH INVESTMENTS IN WARS STOP, THE AIR WILL BE CLEAN AGAIN AND EVERY CHILD AND CITIZENS IN THAT REGION WILL SEE THEIR DREMS COME THROUGH. ITS TIME TO THINK ABOUT FACTS AND NOT FICTIONS. FELLOW CITIZENS, LET US LIVE IN PEACE.!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

NOT ONLY THAT MANY ARAB COUNTRIES AND THEIR MASTERS SUPPORTED THE REBELS AND FOUGHT ON THE WRONG SIDE OF THIS BRUTAL WAR, THEY FORGOT TO LEARN FROM HISTORY. THE QUESTION NOW IS HOW THEY CAN FORGET THE PAST AND BUILD A NEW ARAB WORLD ORDER WHERE THE ENEMEY OF THEIR FRIENDS SHOULD NOT NECESSARILY BE THEIR ENEMY. LET THIS BE A TURNING POINT THAT CAN HEAL RIFTS.

RE-WIND AND GO BACK TO SEE WHAT HAPPENED AND WHO SAID WHAT, WHEN AND HOW. I TOLD YOU SO.!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

The author unjustly omits Assad's regime's warcrimes from his analysis. The Assad regime has lost legitimacy in a way, and that would require tremendous amount of work to restore it. The chemical attacks on civilians, tight authoritarian control on Syrians, countless episodes of violations of human rights, and many more incidents are not mentioned.

How is Maher Assad's missing leg, comrade?
Let's see if your rafidah majus can withstand another 7 years of war.

excellent well deduced article

That is the most disgusting article I have read in awhile. The man who authored this article, would sell his soul to Assad himself if it meant he would make an extra dollar.

The author is bought and sold to the highest bidder.

Auctioning himself off to any bidder.

Lowly minds think Alike, Assad has also auctooned Syria off to any bidder that would take him, regardless of the outcome.

The revolution will not end on military genocides,

It will end when the arab world rids itself of men without honor, who would sell their pwn mothers for a dollar,
like Assad, like this author.

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