NEW YORK — In the classic game of “chicken”, two drivers race directly towards each other, and the first to swerve is the “loser”. If neither swerves, both will probably die. In the past, such scenarios have been studied to assess the risks posed by great-power rivalries.

NEW YORK — There are three negative supply shocks that could trigger a global recession by 2020. All of them reflect political factors affecting international relations, two involve China, and the United States is at the centre of each.

NEW YORK — There is a good reason why every civilised country in the world tightly regulates its financial system. The 2008 global financial crisis, after all, was largely the result of rolling back financial regulation.

NEW YORK — Last summer, my colleague Brunello Rosa and I identified 10 potential downside risks that could trigger a US and global recession in 2020. Nine of them are still in play today.Many involve the United States.