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Mohamed A. El-Erian
Navigating major transitions in an uncertain economy
By Mohamed A. El-Erian - May 01,2024
CAMBRIDGE — Once again, US economic and market forecasters are having a difficult time. Worse, while 2023 surprised on the upside, the deviation from projections in 2024 could be much less favourable.Recall the start of 2023.
Will the US economy drive global growth this year?
By Mohamed A. El-Erian - Mar 02,2024
CAMBRIDGE — What happens in the United States does not stay in the United States. The global economy depends on America to act as a main engine of growth, and global financial markets depend on US investors’ outsize appetite for risk.
Do not extrapolate last year’s trends for the global economy
By Mohamed A. El-Erian - Jan 14,2024
CAMBRIDGE — Behavioural economists have popularised the term “recency bias” to describe our tendency to be disproportionately influenced by the latest events compared to earlier ones.
The growing risk of global disorder
By Mohamed A. El-Erian - Dec 24,2023
CAMBRIDGE — The Western-led global economic order had a bad 2023. Surprisingly, the primary cause was not the emergence of an alternative order led by China, as some had anticipated.
The five main drivers of global economic uncertainty
By Mohamed A. El-Erian - Oct 29,2023
CAMBRIDGE — Businesses, governments and investors were already navigating a foggy global landscape before the tragic events unfolding in the Middle East.
Finding growth in a fractured world
By Mohamed A. El-Erian - Aug 23,2023
 CAMBRIDGE — For decades, China set a shining example of how to capitalise on globalisation to accelerate domestic economic growth and development.
Simplifying a complicated global economy
By Mohamed A. El-Erian - Aug 19,2023
CAMBRIDGE — The global economy this year is full of puzzling surprises.
Why the Fed is hard to predict
By Mohamed A. El-Erian - Jun 01,2023
 CAMBRIDGE — One might think that predicting the US Federal Reserve’s next policy moves would become easier now that it has already hiked interest rates ten consecutive times, for a total of five percentage points.
The Fed's credibility problem
By Mohamed A. El-Erian - May 08,2023
CAMBRIDGE — Reacting to Silicon Valley Bank’s sudden collapse, André Esteves, a senior Brazilian banking executive, recently told Bloomberg that “SVB’s interest rate risk would’ve been obvious to any banking intern in Latin America”.
Fragmented globalisation
By Mohamed A. El-Erian - Mar 14,2023
CAMBRIDGE — For three decades, businesses and governments around the world operated under the assumption that economic and financial globalisation will continue apace.

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